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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Raiders

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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Raiders

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's lines.)

Line: Packers -11

  • Bet the Packers: Against an injury-ridden team like the Raiders, the Packers will be able to take advantage on both sides of the football. The Packers offense will be unstoppable as usual, and with several offensive weapons missing in Oakland, the Green Bay defense should will see similar success.
  • Bet the Raiders: Despite having several players injured, the Raiders will still have a potent running game with Michael Bush in the lineup. And as long as Carson Palmer can manage the game and avoid turnovers, the Raiders can score enough to cover the spread if not win outright. And don't overlook the strength of the Oakland special teams, which likely has the edge over the Packers.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. At full strength, the Raiders would stand a chance. With so many players missing, they don't.

Last week: I picked the Packers, and because they could only win by a last-second field goal, they couldn't cover. I'm learning to take the Packers at home, but their opponents on the road.

Over/under: 51 1/2

  • Bet the over: As usual, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game will have plenty of success and should shred the Raiders secondary. And with Carson Palmer directing the Raiders offense, they have a passing game that can complement their running game. The Packers defense has struggled all year long, especially in the passing game. There's enough evidence to think that the Green Bay defense isn't going to turn it around on a dime.
  • Bet the under: The Raiders are going to rely on their run game, run with frequency and attempt to control the clock and keep the Packers offense off the field. And while the Packers run game is nothing special, the Raiders run defense is among the worst in the NFL. If there was ever a game the Packers may try to establish the run, Sunday is it. With both teams running a lot, time will fly off the clock avoiding a shoot out.

Final decision: Bet the over. With home field advantage, the Packers should score plenty. And the Packers certainly aren't good enough to shut out the Raiders.

Prediction: Packers 35 Raiders 21

Last week: I picked the under, and the game went well over with both the Packers and the Giants scoring over 30 points.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 10-14

Cumulative record straight up: 11-1

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (13) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

MarkinMadison's picture

Hey Brian, check this out. James Walker arguing as to why Brady should be MVP over AR at espn.com.

"I think Green Bay could even win the NFC North this year without Rodgers considering the Chicago Bears (7-5) lost quarterback Jay Cutler, the Detroit Lions (7-5) are inconsistent and the Minnesota Vikings (2-10) stink...."

I hope Mr. Walker does not actually have the ability to influence any MVP voters.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

RIDICULOUS! Everybody knows Tebow is the MVP this year. Sheesh.

Chris's picture

Peyton Manning is the MVP by not playing at all this season ;-)
I am just kidding of course, but some people are trying to make this point when discussion comes to MVP nominations.

Ct Sharpe Cheddar's picture

no wins no value

markinmadison's picture

By that logic the MVP at ESPN is clearly Mr. Walker's editor, who must be on vacation in the Bahamas this week.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

The new NFL magazine actually proclaimed Manning the MVP... And to think, I was gonna subscribe to that paper turd.

Bob's picture

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, & Matt Moore, now that's a murderers row of quarterbacks. Add to that Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets, wow what a powerful division.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

GBP covered spread against previous 2 AFC West opponents, jokeland playing their 4th road game out of the last 5... They are tired and weary. GBP BIG.

49-17

GBP 4 LIFE

Ct Sharpe Cheddar's picture

Raiders in Green Bay were the Lambeau Leep started.Just win baby

Ct Sharpe Cheddar's picture

SB II

davyjones's picture

Even with the GB defense, 21 points seems generous. Palmer should throw multiple picks which takes points off the board for them. I think this is the week the D steps up and holds them to 10 points and gets multiple turnovers.

I also think grant has breakout game and gets at least 90 yds. He'll help control the clock and prove that GB can run when the weather turns. He's going to give himself--and us--a big old birthday present game!

thehatefulnerd's picture

Raiders will be too far behind to stick with the run. Carsons just learning the offense and his WRs are all injured.
Comfortable, if not blowout win.
Btw, imo, Crosby and Masthey are right up there with Janikowski and the Raiders special teams. They may not be better but they're close. Cobb isn't a real slouch either.

fish/crane's picture

CObb is also not a fake slouch.

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