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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Chargers

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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Chargers

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)

Line: Packers -5 1/2

  • Bet the Packers: This just in: The Packers are the 7-0 and are the NFL's best team. Their best player Aaron Rodgers is shredding any and all defense's in his wake and should be able to do the same against a middling Chargers D. On the other side of the football, the Chargers offense is leading the NFL in interceptions and the Packers just so happen to be among the league leaders in takeaways. That's a recipe for disaster for the Chargers.
  • Bet the Chargers: If a two-win Vikings team can cover the spread against the Packers, the Chargers might even be better equipped to do so with their home-field advantage. Even though Rivers is a sometimes inconsistent quarterback, he's been known to tear up opposing defenses his fair share too. And the way the Packers have been giving up yards this year, the Chargers will be able to find pay dirt several times on Sunday.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. This team has won 13 games in a row. They're too good to pick against right now.

Last week: I picked the Packers, and they failed to cover the 9 1/2 points in a closer than expected win over the Vikings.

Over/under: 50 1/2 points

  • Bet the over: The Packers are the NFL's highest scoring team right now averaging almost 33 points per game with a potent offense led by Rodgers but also with a ground game that can keep team's honest, especially with the play-action fake. The Chargers aren't in the same category as the Packers, but they do average 23 points per game. As long as both team's approach their averages, and there's a decent chance they will, they'll go over.
  • Bet the under: The Packers offense, even though they're explosive, has sputtered from time to time their past couple games. If the Chargers can find that right mix of pass rush and coverage to hassle Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay could get flustered on the road. On the flip side, the Packers defense gives up a lot of yards but not a lot of points. If they stiffen up in the red zone, they can hold the Chargers to field goals instead of touchdowns.

Final decision: Bet the over. The Packers are due for a breakout after scoring 25 points against the Falcons, 24 against the Rams, and being on and off against the Vikings.

Prediction: Packers 38 Chargers 21

Last week: I picked the under, and neither the Packers nor the Vikings defense was up the task in a game that went quite a bit over with 60 combined points.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 6–8

Cumulative record straight up: 6–1

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FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

Give the points, take the over.


Ryan's picture

"Winning 13 in a row" has no bearing on which side of the spread you should bet. What if they were favored by 30?

Now if you had said: the Pack has beaten the spread 10 out of the last 13 games - that would explain your reasoning for the pick a bit better.

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