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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Bears

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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Bears

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)

Line: -3 1/2

  • Bet the Packers: The Packers have won eight straight games, including the playoffs, dating back to last season. Two of those games were against the Bears, in the regular season finale just to qualify for the playoffs and then again in the NFC Championship game. Green Bay isn't going to be intimidated by the road environment and they're going to make the Bears offensive line look foolish. The Packers' prolific offense and red-zone defense, which is doing a good job keeping opponents out of the end zone, will prevail.
  • Bet the Bears: The Bears may have lost to the Saints last week, but they return home to the friendly confines of Soldier Field, where they soundly defeated the Falcons in Week 1. It's also where the Packers and Bears met in the first of three games last season, a game which the Bears won 20-17, and the Packers had a franchise record 18 penalties. The Packers are giving up passing yards at an alarming rate so far this season, giving up an average of 400 yards per game. Now they're without three-time Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins, not helping matters. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will look to take advantage.

Final decision: Bet the Bears. One game does not mean impending gloom and doom for the Packers, but it's so hard to win on the road in the NFL, no matter who the opponent is. I predict the Packers lose both against the spread and straight up. If I'm wrong, I may not choose against the Packers straight up for the rest of the year. Well... at least until Thanksgiving.

Last week: I went with the Packers and were wrong. A late score by Cam Newton made it a seven-point game, and the Packers couldn't cover the 9 1/2 point spread.

Over/under: 45 1/2

  • Bet the over: These are two teams that aren't stopping anyone right now, at least not consistently. The Packers are giving up an average of 476 yards per game, third-worst in the NFL, while the Bears are giving up an average of 384, 10th worst. Meanwhile, the Packers offense has put up 72 in Weeks 1 and 2, tied for the fourth most in team history through two games. A lower-scoring game might perhaps be expected in January, but not in September.
  • Bet the under: Whenever the Packers and the Bears get together lately, it's been, the games have been relative slugfests in which the team with the fewer mistakes wins. The first meeting in Chicago last year was 20-17 (37 total points), the second meeting in Green Bay was 10-3 (13 total point) and the rubber match back in Chicago was 21-14 (35 total points). After so much success early on for the Green Bay offense, at some point they have to regress toward the mean, don't they?

Final decision: Bet the under. I don't expect a 10-3 game like Week 17 last year, but with somewhere in the realm of three touchdowns apiece, the game will finish just under the total.

Prediction: Bears 24-21

Last week: It was an improvement upon Week 1 when I went 0-2. I won the over, but lost on the Packers beating the spread to go 1-1.

Overall: 1-3

Rip away.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (5) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

FITZCORE1252's picture

Been nice knowing ya Brian, turn your Packer fan card in at the door please. The B-E-A-R-S? REALLY? The B-E-A-R-S? Have you no morals man? Even if it were an alternate dimension where I knew we were going to lose to the bares, I would never publicly say such a thing (Pretty sure there's an old law on the Wisconsin books about a public stoning for such a heinous act... very just I might add), I just wouldn't get any action on the game.

For the last few years these game have been decided by 7 or less. The guess here is the GBP break that trend and double your spread (which is a good one, SIA has it GBP -4) with a 24 to 17 victory, which would make the under the play.

GBP 4 LIFE

Wagszilla's picture

I'd possibly agree with you Brian if:
1) The Bears' OLine wasn't a porous mess right now
2) Their WRs were healthy
3) Cutler wasn't such a poor leader

Cover the check down. Do what New Orleans did and add in a dash of Finley and *voila*, delicious Bear Soup!

MIKE47SMITH's picture

I definately get your cautious projection here, given the great points you brought up above. However, what I feel you are not taking into consideration enough is the fact that we will be getting Tramon back. The absence of Tramon and the fact that the Panthers dominated the Time Of Possesion last week, were the biggest contributors to our poor pass defense. With Tramon in the game and no lost fumble on the kickoff after the first score, the game would have looked MUCH different! (Tons of props to Cam though, the kid can ball) Chalk up last weeks poor performance to bad timing and lousy ball handling.
This week will be very different. Will the Packers' Fire Zones still be attacked like you brought up, leading to bunches of yrds through the air? Most likely, but with the Bears injuries at WR and the Packers superior talent on the outside, that's where I believe the bad news stops.
I believe that the Packers are going to be able to use this game to right the ship and get back to dominating football games. Could it be a hard fought, slug it out contest like it normally is? No doubt. Am I nervous in excitement? Hell yeah! That's usually an easy call. For some reason I have a strog feeling though that this game will not even be close. I have the Packers in this one 33-10!

Majik Man's picture

I hope you're right. It's games like these that seem like those "trap" games. Attention on the line and receivers, but what COULD end up happening is the line having some sudden great game, Forte rips us up, and their defense is as stingy as it usually is. Not this time, though. The concerns for the Bears are real. I think we take care of business, and am confident taking the Packers on the over. Unless Caleb Hanie comes in at half time...

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

No PACKER vs. bare game could be a trap. These franchises know what this week is all about, time to put their big boy pants on... That would just be a cop out. Each know what the other is bringing to the table, all about who executes better.

GBP 4 LIFE

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