2019 NFL Picks and Over Unders

With the Packers back to a regular Sunday schedule for the next two weeks, and the next weekly Stock Report not scheduled to be released until next Wednesday, I thought it would be a perfect opportunity to release my 2019 NFL futures stock report.  

In this piece, I will identify three teams that will be locks to go over their win totals, three teams that will be locks to go under their win totals, and three dark horses that could surprise us all.  Finally, I will reveal my division and wild card picks along with our NFL MVP and Super Bowl winner.

Over Locks:

1. Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5:

Everyone will be talking about New England after Sunday Night's massacre over the Steelers but Kansas City is the team with the most dynamic offense in the NFL.  In a league where defensive struggles are considered boring, the Chiefs should coast to 13 wins by simply scoring 30+ points on most of their opponents.

2. New England Patriots Over 11: For obvious reasons, the rich continue to get richer.  Even if Antonio Brown does get hit with a personal conduct suspension of 8 games, the Patriots still looked unstoppable on Sunday night without him.  The defense will improve and fire on all cylinders come November and the team will be ready for another January run.  Remember, they play six games against the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets who are not exactly worthy opponents just yet.  

3. Houston Texans Over 8.5:

Even with the departure of the overrated Jadeveon Clowney, this could still be the most complete Houston Texan team we have ever seen.  Houston fortified their offensive line around Desean Watson by adding Laremy Tunsil and provided another weapon to go alongside DeAndre Hopkins in Kenny Stills.  I look for Hopkins and Stills to stretch the field, and Watson and the running back by committee combination to keep defenses honest with different running formations, especially RPO's.  Romeo Crennel and the defense will provide enough of a pass rush to at least, disrupt most opponents passing attacks.  I look for the Texans to be a 10 or 11 win team and give the Chiefs or the Patriots all they can handle come playoff time.

 

Under Locks:

1. Miami Dolphins under 4.5:

I think the Dolphins are really as bad as their Sunday performance indicated.  Once they lose their 8th game, they will almost certainly turn to Josh Rosen who will get clobbered because of that awful offensive line.  The Miami Dolphins are a dumpster fire of a franchise who are openly tanking for Tua.  I think the Dolphins are a lock to go 2-14.

2. Cleveland Browns under 9:

I am not jumping off the Cleveland Browns bandwagon like the majority of their supporters, I am just reiterating my opinion that this cast of characters has dumpster fire written all over it.  Hopefully, Baker Mayfield doesn't become Johnny Manziel reincarnated and OBJ just takes off his damn watch.  Either way, I see the wheels spinning out of control by week 10.  This could become a disappointing 7-9 or 6-10 debacle in a hurry, and if it does, heads will roll.

3. Denver Broncos under 7:

I know it's only week 1, but if you cannot defeat the Antonio Brownless Raiders, I have no clue how you plan on winning 7 games.  I think the Joe Flacco era could very well be short-lived if Drew Lock can show promise at the end of this season or early next season.  I don't see a complete disaster of a season like Miami or Cleveland will most likely experience, but I think the lack of offensive firepower holds this team back.  I think the Broncos end being a 6-10 team in 2019.

 

Dark Horse Teams:

1. Dallas Cowboys over 9 wins:

I think their defense alone makes them a 9 win team in the NFC East and if Dak Prescott can play a third of the season as he did on Sunday, the Cowboys could definitely win 12 games.  I think Dallas wins 11 or 12 games this year and is the surprise elite team of this year.

2. New York Jets under 7.5 wins:

This may not be a darkhorse pick, especially if the Jets end up losing on Monday Night to start the season 0-2.  The dark clouds continue to develop overhead for gang green with an absolutely brutal schedule the next four weeks (Eagles, Cowboys, Patriots twice) that could see them start 1-5 or 0-6.  The team looks to already be in disarray as they cut their kicker in favor of former Packer great Sam Ficken, and watch as their crazy coach Adam Gase is already spewing at the NY media.  In typical Jet fashion, this has all the makings for another circus act.

3. Indianapolis Colts over 7.5 wins:

All of the talk before the regular-season opener (other than Antonio Brown) revolved around the retirement of Andrew Luck and the certain demise of the Colts.  Insert Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback with a brand new contract and plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball and you still have a solid football team who can control the point of attack, run the ball, and play solid defense.  This Colts team showed me a lot in defeat as they charged back to tie the game on the road.  I think the Colts will win 9 games and contend for a wild card birth despite everyone writing them off after the retirement of their star quarterback.

 

Division Winners/Wild Card Births:

NFC:

1. NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

2. NFC South: New Orleans Saints

3. NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

4. NFC West: LA Rams    

Wild Cards:

1. Seattle Seahawks

2. Philadelphia Eagles

(Green Bay Packers on the bubble at 8-8/9-7)

(Chicago misses the playoffs and goes under 9 wins)

 

AFC Division Winners/Wild Card Births:

1. AFC East: New England Patriots

2. AFC South: Houston Texans

3. AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

4. AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

Wild Cards:

1. LA Chargers

2. Tennessee Titans

(Colts/Ravens just miss out)

 

Super Bowl Predictions:

NFC Champion: Dallas Cowboys 

AFC Champion: New England Patriots

Super Bowl Champion: New England Patriots

NFL MVP: Pat Mahomes

 

Sound Off:

Who do you like as locks and who are your dark horses? Why am I wrong? Do you like any of my picks? (There are some obvious locks I did not include to limit this to nine teams with decent odds)

Give me your picks.

Stay Tuned for my six-pack of week 2 picks exclusively in Key Battles this Saturday.   

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David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave 

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Comments (25)

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

September 11, 2019 at 04:49 pm

"NFC North: Minnesota Vikings"

It's clear this is a Packers site. Isn't it?

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David Michalski's picture

September 11, 2019 at 05:28 pm

Doesn’t mean I have to pick them to win it. Although I will say this week will tell us a lot. The piece was more for gambling purposes.

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John Galt's picture

September 11, 2019 at 06:24 pm

So always bet $5.00 on the Packers to lose.

If they lose you win $'s.

If on the other hand they win, wasn't it worth $5.00

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Samson's picture

September 11, 2019 at 06:40 pm

Sorry, Dave.
I've tried to read & comprehend your article... It makes little sense & has even less purpose.

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David Michalski's picture

September 12, 2019 at 12:28 am

It’s pretty easy to comprehend, just making my picks for the season. All the pregame stuff comes Saturday so hold your horses and sit tight.

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Old School's picture

September 12, 2019 at 10:45 am

It’s not that hard to understand, David. You have an opinion, and some people can’t comprehend that, so to them, it doesn’t make any sense.

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Hawg Hanner's picture

September 11, 2019 at 06:50 pm

Come on, nothing wrong with the article. Sure you can argue some conclusions

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GatorJason's picture

September 11, 2019 at 06:53 pm

Don't buy it.

Packers win Central. Vikings or Bears win Wild Card.

Most egregious in AFC is Steelers over Ravens.
Ravens are for real and Steelers are not.

Other picks possible but no locks!! Even New England.
One good hit on Brady and he is dunsky.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 12, 2019 at 12:36 am

I may have found a thing or two to nitpick about AR, but Roethlisberger looks like a waste of $45M. He looks done. He missed on every pass that needed any touch.

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flackcatcher's picture

September 12, 2019 at 07:08 am

Yeah, I had flash backs to Rodgers at Detroit last Thanksgiving. Never seen Big Ben that inaccurate on open throws. He did look old.

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vj_ostrowski's picture

September 12, 2019 at 07:11 am

It hasn’t been the central division for almost 20 years now.

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sbransbottom's picture

September 13, 2019 at 12:10 pm

That was my first thought too.

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Lphill's picture

September 11, 2019 at 07:39 pm

David one game does not define any team. The Patriots are + 19 over the Dolphins, a lot of money will be on them , how shocking would it be if they beat the Pats ? Cousins had I think 10 passes , how good is the Falcons run defense? So cook had 125 yards and 2 TD’s , ok so he accounted for 14 points not exactly a hall of fame performance , I watched the game Falcons looked lost on defense , I would say the Packers defense has much more energy and speed to match up better with the Vikings, I think the spread is Packers + 3 . My money is on the Pack.

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ShooterMcGee's picture

September 11, 2019 at 11:52 pm

I agree Lphill. I also watched that game and the Atlanta defense was atrocious. The running lanes were so big a truck could have driven thru them. At this point the Vikings are overrated because they beat a very bad team. My guess is Atlanta goes 6-10 this year.
Our defense is much better and should get us to 10 wins at least. If the offense starts to gel we could be the darkhorse of the NFC. If the offense doesn't get better time to look for some new weapons in the draft, including QB. We have neglected that side of the ball for years.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 12, 2019 at 02:37 am

David, when you put your arguments on table, I will say this to beat your arguments.

You said Dallas Cowboys will have 12-4 record, solely because of their D. I truly believe Packers D is better D than Cowboys D. If Cowboys D can get Dallas to 12-4 why do you think Packers D is not possible to achieve at least 10 wins for Packers? You have Packers 8-8 or 9-7!?

I also believe Packers have better QB, better WR group and Dallas has little better RB. All together your arguments are strange.

EDIT: You have Steelers to win AFC North and they showed more than nothing against Pats while Baltimore dismantled lowly Dolphins and they are not taken in consideration!!!???? Ravens D is much better than Dallas D!

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

September 12, 2019 at 05:44 am

croatpackfan, if you want to beat David’s arguments perhaps you should quote him correctly. He never wrote the “Cowboys will have 12-4 record, solely because of their D.” What he actually wrote was, “I think their defense alone makes them a 9 win team in the NFC East …” 9 games, not 12. And he also mentions the NFC East so perhaps that’s why he thinks the Cowboys D could be worth more than the Packers – perhaps he thinks the NFC North is a tougher division. David didn’t even write the Cowboys will have a 12-4 record. He wrote he thinks they win 11 or 12 games.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 12, 2019 at 08:17 am

Cite:
"I think Dallas wins 11 or 12 games this year and is the surprise elite team of this year.!"

Well they might have 12-8 record than?

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

September 12, 2019 at 09:15 am

croatpackfan,

So how does that justify you writing, "“Cowboys will have 12-4 record, solely because of their D.”? That is obviously wrong twice. Apparently you don't want to address your misrepresentation of what David wrote.

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David Michalski's picture

September 12, 2019 at 08:43 am

So I'll try and respond to as many as I can. 1. I think you're going to see a lot of quarterbacks having career days against Miami which is why I'm not fully buying the Ravens. Secondly, their young front seven needs to prove they can get pressures against good teams to allow their elite secondary to be difference makers for them.

I'd wait until week 6 to burry big Ben, I think Montcrief rebounds, JuJu has a solid year and Conner and the rest of the backs do just fine. The Pats are a potential 14-2 team so I see them blowing out a lot of good teams.

I think the NFC North is going to beat each other up pretty good, and the Packers have a rough end to their schedule on the road. I also think the offense will be shaky until week 5 or 6 so that along with the tough end to their season is why I have them going 8-8 or 9-7 (probably more like the latter)

As far as Dallas, I think their defense travels and they will have a 5-1 record inside the division, that's where I came up with the number of 9 wins from their defense and the traditional crappy play of Dak. However, I think their wide receiver core is much better than the Packers. Cooper, Gallup, and a possible renaissance for Cobby as a number 3 slot receiver? A two tight end set that protects Dak against elite pass rushers? Then I think you're nuts if you think Aaron Jones is anywhere near as good as Zeke. Zeke is a scumbag, but he's durable and pounds defenses into the ground and can catch another 60 balls out of the backfield. If Dak has 5 more games like he did on opening day Dallas can definitely win 11 or 12, no question in my mind.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 12, 2019 at 12:39 pm

David, thank you for answering.

I have no problems with your predictions but with explanation. No one knows at this moment how things will fall out for many teams (e. g. Jaguars situation w/Nick Foles!).

To be honest, I thought Packers are looking to 10-6 record before this first season game. Now, I know that Packers have chances to achieve at least 1 or 2 wins more based only on D and ST plays. I do not want to make much of Bears offense, but Bears OL many considered to be among better in NFL. And Packers D ruined them.

Dallas played against Giants and I watched first 10 minutes of the game. Dallas D was nothing special. Later I read that Giants O played lousy.

Same is with Ravens vs Steelers. Before season started many was predicting that Steelers and Browns should fight for AFC North. What I saw during preseason is hard and successful Ravens D. Their back ups were much better than those from others teams.

Patriots are strong, but we will see if the result of their first game was because Patriots are strong or Steelers are that weak...

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David Michalski's picture

September 12, 2019 at 01:25 pm

Honestly, I think we're going to have to agree to disagree with Dallas and the Ravens, but that's what makes this fun, right? Another disclaimer is I think the preseason is absolutely meaningless.

Addressing your Packers prediction: I think an early litmus test for the Packers will be if they can beat Philly by stifling their offense and coming out of their first four games with a 3-1 record. If they beat Philly and are 3-1 then I think 10 wins is probable and more likely. Another aspect that people don't seem to understand is the difference between going 8-8 and 10-6 is often minuscule. It's a game-changing play here or there going for your team. So in that respect, could the Packers win 10 games, absolutely hell yes if they get a few breaks to go their way.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 13, 2019 at 05:36 am

"...I think we're going to have to agree to disagree with Dallas and the Ravens, but that's what makes this fun, right?..."

RIGHT!

And please, I do not have any intention to show disrespect to you or to your opinions...

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

September 12, 2019 at 08:32 am

Trolls and homers...the trolls cannot see anything good about this team and have them finishing around .500. The homers live in a fantasy world where unicorns magically deliver the ball to the end zone on every play. Well CHTV is lucky today because I have researched extensively, assessed all outcomes, and run all the data through my patented algorithm. The result: Packers go 19-0, QB1 is MVP, Savage is ROY, LaFleur is Coach of the year, and Jordy is Comeback Player of the year. You heard it here first. Meet me in Vegas this afternoon and I’ll fill you in on the rest of the teams. (Hint: they all tie for last place)

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sbransbottom's picture

September 13, 2019 at 12:16 pm

That's actually pretty hilarious.

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Old School's picture

September 12, 2019 at 10:48 am

Cowboys looked pretty good. So did the Rams, Eagles, Vikings and Saints. But it’s just one week.

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