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Aaron's Picks For The Championship Games

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Aaron's Picks For The Championship Games

  • Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Fans, pundits and even honest to goodness football people keep talking about how dominant the Viking defensive front four looked against the Cowboys last week and expect a repeat performance this Sunday down in the Big Easy.

It ain't gonna happen.

Even if defensive end Ray Edwards was at full strength, which he isn't, Drew Brees and company will tear apart the Viking defense. The Vikings were able to rely on the noise in the Metrodome and the loss of Flozell Adams to dismantle the Cowboys offensive line and get to Romo using only four guys. This just won't be happening down in New Orleans. The Vikings will have to blitz to get pressure on Brees, and when they do, Payton and Brees will make them pay.

On the flip side, Brett Favre and the Vikings offense will be able to move the ball against the Saints, especially if Childress and Favre don't fall in love with their passing attack. A healthy dose of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor could pound the porous Saints rushing defense into oblivion. But I just don't see Favre putting his toys away, and sooner or later the environment, the noise and the pressure will get to Favre and the Vikings.

Saints: 31

Vikings: 17

  • New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Clark. That's it. That's your ball game.

The Jets want to pound the ball, limit Manning's opportunities and shorten the game as much as possible. The problem is, you can make the game as short as Peter Dinklage - Manning has shown he will still find a way to put up the points his team needs. Does anyone remember the Monday nighter against the Dolphins? The Phins played keep-away all night. It didn't matter.

Now, the Jets are not the Dolphins. They have the defense to slow the point machine that is Peyton Manning down. More importantly, they have Darrell Revis to match up on Reggie Wayne. After that, it's a solid if unspectacular group of wide receivers.

And then there's the tight end.

Dallas Clark is a match up problem for any team, but against a team that likes to blitz as much as the Jets he's a macthup nightmare. Just when you think you've got the quarterback, he tosses a short pass to Clark for a huge gain where all the blitzers have just come from.

Yes, I'm simplifying. And yes, you know you've seen it a hundred times from Manning and Clark.

I like the Jets' chances. But in the end, even if this turns out to be the low-scoring, bruising affair the Jets want it to be, Manning, as he has so many times before, will make the play that needs to be made at the end to win the game.

Colts: 20

Jets: 13

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (13) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

foundinidaho's picture

I'm holding you to this one ANag! :)

keeley2's picture

Aaron - One thing that many people are overlooking - the football gods have yet to speak about #4's defection to an arch-rival. It's about time they are heard.

PACKERS.'s picture

Good picks. I really like the way you reason things out. It's a skill I hope I can learn to apply to my Pack-blogging.

It's intersting to see you post here. I always thought this was always sort of Holly's domain. I guess I'll always be the new guy. ;)

hollycrat's picture

PACKERS. - "Always?" Nah, Aaron & Corey let me play in this sandbox starting this season. I sometimes get possessive, but it's not like I could take it away from them...they know the passwords. ;)
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Nice quick picks there, Aaron. I'm giving Rex the edge, though...I'd like to see karmic payback in both games.

seekr's picture

I hope you're right about these picks.

PACKERS.'s picture

I've only been around since about a quarter of the way through the season, so I wouldn't know.

Anyway, as long as the Vikings lose, I don't care who else wins.

Go Pack Go!

bucky's picture

I posted my picks in response to Holly's postg. Basically I think the Vikes D is just too banged up to slow down the Saints. I also think the Vikings were a pretty pedestrian road team this season, and that just won't cut it in the Dome.

Also- Colts are not Chargers, and are not coached by Norv Turner. They will bury the Jets. Blow out city.

greenbaypackerbob's picture

Vikes: If the OL gives Favre time the Saints will have their hands full. Favre threw a total 7 TDs and 0 INT against a MVP Woodson led secondary this season while the Saints are 25th in yardage allowed (even w/ Sharper). But A Peterson has only averaged 83 yrds per game (due to stagnate last half of season) ... he has to do better Sunday if they are to keep the passing game open. Obviously the Vikes defense is the big question mark: w/o DL pressure on Breese (similar to Dallas) they are in serious trouble. Vikes secondary is their weakest spot and Breese will attempt to exploit it (Vikes have to at least check the receivers at the line to give time to the D front). Loss of Harvin or Edwards will be devastating if they don't play.
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Saints - Reggie Bush is alive and well and Breese has a host of targets and fewer injuries. If Breese gets 2-3 good secs. in the pocket it's a done deal (particularly if they get a run game going). Vikes beat Dallas because Romo was left running for his life and Dallas was always behind. Without some kind of repeat the Vikes will not be able to keep up in the scoring competition. Vikes won last year in superdome with Frerotte in week 5 (but again, defense was key, e.g. Wenfield had big plays).
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Favre factor: If he is on, anything is possible ... this year, he has been very on.
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Vikes are definitely the underdog (particularly w/ their road record) but it could easily go either way depending on who shows up … too close to call IMO.
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greenbaypackerbob's picture

Jets: Indy has minimum run game so the Jets know Manning is going to pass. Jets are a physical team but Manning is a 4 time MVP for a reason. Jets salvation lies with strong show in the secondary and the pass rush - if they can get to Peyton they have their chance to win. Equal pressure will be on the Jets run game (and rookie Sanchez has to pretend it's just another game and not make mistakes). Jets have every reason to go all out and appear on fire. I will go out on a wild, wild limb:
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Jets 24 - Colts 21
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A point of irony - whether Favre had stayed with the Jets or gone to the Vikes, either way, he ends up in another NFC championship game! Who'd a thunk it.
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Bearmeat's picture

Please God, make Favre lose and look terrible doing it. He deserves to fail, and the Packer fans who loved him for years have paid in blood this year with his sketchy sense of honor.

PACKERS.'s picture

Greenbaypackerbob: Nice one. I can't believe no one noticed that before.

By the way, how does this trackback thing work. I linked to this post on my blog. Wouldn't that show up here? Just curious......

Go Pack Go!

FITZCORE1252's picture

-----Brent slurper bobby says-----

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"A point of irony – whether Favre had stayed with the Jets or gone to the Vikes, either way, he ends up in another NFC championship game! Who’d a thunk it."

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NO, S-O-R-R-Y "bobby",

If Brent was with the Jets he would be in the "AFC" championship game.

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I've read your posts (think I've dropped a few points on the intellect meter in the process), so I'm not surprised at this admission of ignorance.

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I FORGIVE you Bobbingham Lincoln.

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Keep researching bobby, and maybe in 5-8 years you will bring something to the table.

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Good luck guy!

GBP 4 LIFE

greenbaypackerbob's picture

Fitz - you are kidding, an AFC game ? ... WOW, we are all in awe of your clarification about my statement.... of course, everyone else knew exactly what I was saying ... but they were just not so ate up with the fact that Favre is still in the game that they are reduced to loser talk. But then again, they are not losers like yourself.
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Maybe you should try telling yourself... 'yes, even I can be a winner like Favre'? (lol)
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