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Lies and Statistics

Lies and Statistics

My name is Globalpack.  I can’t break down film and I am not going to spend hours watching the combine, so I can’t really give you a great opinion article.  However, I can learn the rules, research the past and use Excel.  So please enjoy a comprehensive statistical look at the draft picks of Ted Thompson.







I read a very interesting analysis of the 2004 draft.  As you may recall, that was the last draft Mike Sherman was ever at the helm for.  If you are lucky, you don’t remember how ugly it was.  It got me wondering, what exactly has Ted Thompson done while he has been at the helm with the five drafts that he has been in charge of.


Ted Thompson has made fifty one draft picks in five drafts.  This is the most picks of any team over that period.  Tennessee is second with forty nine.  The average team has made forty picks.  Minnesota and the Jets are tied for last with thirty one.  Eighteen of the picks were in the top half (5/8/5) and thirty three were in the bottom half (8/8/9/8).  Twenty eight have been on offense (10 top half/18 bottom half), twenty two have been on defense (8/14) and one was a special teams player (Mason Crosby).


Of these fifty one draft picks, thirty one of these players are still on the roster, nineteen have been cut/not tendered and one was traded.  Twelve are starters[1] and three are pro-bowlers.[2] Only three of eleven remain from the 2005 draft.[3] Six of the twelve remain from the 2006 draft.[4] Eight of eleven remain from the 2007 class.[5] Fifteen of seventeen remain from the 2008 and 2009 class.[6]


As you are all aware, Ted Thompson loves him some wide receivers.  Ted has drafted eight wide receivers.  That is part of a three way tie for second with linebackers and defensive backs.  These groups are only behind offensive lineman (10), however as will be discussed below, not all that glitters is gold.  Ted has focused on wide receivers more in the top half of the draft (4),[7] than any other position.[8]


Many fans criticize Ted Thompson for not having the LT of the future on the roster.  At least it has been for a lack of trying.  Ted has given barely any attention to offensive linemen during the top half of the draft.[9] Ted has expended the same number of top half draft picks on quarterbacks as he has offensive linemen.[10] Additionally, Ted has only used one first or second round draft pick on an offensive lineman, a distinction that the O-line only shares with running backs (Jackson).   Tight end is the only position group with no first or second round draft picks used on it.


On the other end of the spectrum, Ted has used four of his five first round draft picks on linebackers and defensive linemen.[11] Along the same note, the only two times Ted has traded up was to select a linebacker.[12]


However, I’m sure that at some level you all knew this information.  So, I’ll try and leave you with some information that you didn’t know.  Ted Thompson does not have success in the fifth round.  Of Ted’s eight fifth round picks, only two are still on the team.[13] That means a measly 25% of fifth rounders still contribute.[14] Additionally, it is the only round that doesn’t have a starter.  Even 38% of seventh rounders are still on the roster and have starter representation.[15] In contrast, Ted has outshined with his sixth round picks.  Six of nine are still on the roster and two start.[16]


As you can tell, there was no real opinion to this piece.  Like, Joe Friday, just the facts.  Hopefully, you’ve enjoyed my dry recitation of data.





[1] For the purposes of this post, the starters are: Clifton, Colledge, Wells, Sitton, Tauscher, Finley, Jennings, Driver, Jones, Rodgers, Grant, Jenkins, Pickett, Jolly, Matthews, Hawk, Barnett, Jones, Harris, Bigby, Collins and Woodson.

[2] Matthews, Rodgers and Collins.

[3] Rodgers, Collins, Poppinga.

[4] Hawk, Colledge, Jennings, Spitz, Blackmon and Jolly.

[5] Harrell, Jackson, James Jones, Barbre, Hall, Bishop and Crosby.

[6] Brohm (2008) and Merideth (2009) are current Buffalo Bills.

[7] Terrence Murphy (2005), Gregg Jennings (2006), James Jones (2007) and Jordy Nelson (2008).

[8] Linebackers and defensive backs are tied for second with three each.

[9] Colledge (2nd Rounder) and Spitz (3rd Rounder).

[10] Rodgers (2005 1st Round) and Brohm (2008 2nd Round).

[11] Hawk (2006), Harrell (2007), Raji (2009) and Matthews (2009).

[12] Thompson (2008) and Matthews (2009).

[13] Breno Giacomini and Quinn Johnson.

[14] Two fifth rounders never even made the squad once.  David Clowney (2007) and James Merideth (2009).

[15] Eight picks, remaining are Matt Flynn, Brett Swain and Brad Jones.

[16] Johnny Jolly, Korey Hall, Desmond Bishop, Mason Crosby, Jarius Wynn and Brandon Underwood.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (14)
This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

vikings's picture

When it comes to the ability to pick the right playesr - Ted is still 4-tiers below Spielman of the Vikings. Sad But True. Good luck this year! How is Brohm doing? haha

Graham's picture

Three drafts, 3 years 17 picks 5 starters. He looks good according to a Vikings fan. Packers fans only judge on nfl championships. TT has a score of 0 and that won't change without the big one.

FITZCORE1252's picture

When it comes to the ability to win Titles - the biqueens are still 4-tiers below the GBP. Funny AND true. Good luck this year! How's Sagvaris Jackenfels doing? Hope you enjoy the next decade... get used to the view. haha

GBP 4 LIFE

PackersRS's picture

This text was Al'ish... Kudos!

Jersey Al's picture

Cha Ching! Alex has to pay me a royalty every time my name is mentioned here. It was part of my Golden Parachute exit deal...

packerslounge's picture

I think you meant golden shower.

FITZCORE1252's picture

Haha, golden shower. LMAO

PackersRS's picture

I said Al'ish. If it was your text, there would be an actual excel table demonstrating the conclusions Jack came to...

But it was very good, I must admit.

Just one thing. In today's NFL, you just cannot quantify finding a starting Qb, let alone a pro bowler with ability to become an all-time.

Almost every single franchise that had an all-time great QB failed to replace him and sinked. Because of Rodgers, we're poised to be contenders for years to come.

Asshalo's picture

Good stuff, Jack. Add Finley to a Pro-Bowler for 2010.

FITZCORE1252's picture

I just sat in a 8 hour level 3 Excel class today... I'll read this later.

GBP 4 LIFE

Max's picture

Nice post, Jack. The breakdown is interesting.

Nate's picture

I wonder how this compares to the Vikes, and other NFL teams. The Vikes should get negative points for drafting Troy Williamson in the first round.

My inclination is to be pretty impressed that TT got 12 starters out of 51 (almost 25%), and 31 out of 51 are still on the team (60%). That doesn't seem half bad, especially if any of the 20 that were dropped or traded are playing for other teams.

Nice work on this analysis, Jack.

Brady Augustine's picture

Thanks for spending the time pulling all those numbers together.

Pack66's picture

Conclusion...

Ted Thompson = JACKASS!

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