Who Is Going To Be Available For The Packers At 27?

People can wish for Myles Jack to fall to 27 for the Packers to select but realistically he's not going to be there, but who will be there for the Packers at the end of the 1st round? 

Plenty of fans know what the Packers team needs are; it would be great if the Ted Thompson could get his hands on Myles Jack, Reggie Ragland or (insert your favorite player here).  However, the chances that someone like Jack or Ragland fall all the way to 27 are pretty slim and while it is possible to trade up and get "the guy" realistically Ted Thompson is never going to break the bank to move up into the top 15, let alone the top 5 or 10.  So realistically, the question should not be "who should the Packers take?" but "who will be available when the Packers pick at 27?".  One interesting way to answer this question is to see how many players at a certain position have been selected in previous drafts up to pick 27 and work backwards from there.  The concept is that over the last 10 years, on average 2.8 quarterbacks have been selected before the 27th pick, meaning the Packers would have the choice to pick the 3rd or 4th best quarterback should they choose.  Naturally some years will be better for some positions than others (like this year there likely will be more DTs selected while there might not be a tight end drafted in the first round at all.  With that being said, who will likely be available at pick 27 for the Packers?  To answer this question I've compiled the draft statistics for the last 10 years and I will be using CBS's big board as my player rankings. 

QB (2.8 picked per year): The Packers will likely have their choice of Connor Cook and Christian Hackenberg if they are looking for the quarterback to replace Aaron Rodgers.  Obviously the Packers are going to get at minimum several good years out of Rodgers and are probably not too worried about Brett Hundley as their backup so realistically there's almost no chance that the Packers take any quarterback in the first 4 rounds.  

RB (2 picked per year): While the Packers are likely going to miss out on Ezekiel Elliott the Packers could pick Derrick Henry or Devontae Booker to be Eddie Lacy's running mate should they choose.  My personal feeling again is that the Packers likely won't pick a running back so high, especially considering how poorly the return on investment is for running backs in general.

WR (3.4 picked per year): WR is actually the most common pick on offense in the NFL draft over the last 10 years with lots of dubious picks as teams reach.  WR is also an unlikely selection given how much the Packers have already invested both in draft picks (almost all the starters are 2nd or 3rd round picks) and money (both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb make top end WR money).  However, if the Packers were to pick a WR, they would likely have their pick of Josh Doctson, Tyler Boyd and Michael Thomas.  This year does feature a particularly deep group of 1st round wide receivers so likely all the true difference makers will be gone way before pick 27.  

TE (.5 picked per year): The Packers will likely have their pick of the entire crop of tight ends since so few are selected in the 1st round but unfortunately, this year is considered pretty bleak when it comes to top tight end talent with only Hunter Henry even being a borderline candidate to be picked in the 1st round.  While the Packers could surely use the help of a seam stretching tight end it's likely they will have to wait to the later rounds or next year to find their guy. 

OT (3.7 picked per year): OT is probably the first position so far that is a realistic selection for the Packers.  David Bakhtiari is a decent enough player but as left tackle is the marqee player on the offensive line, it's possible that some other team will overpay for his services next year when he becomes a free agent.  While lots of offensive tackles are picked every year, it's also considered as one of the safer selections.  At pick 27 the Packers will likely have their pick of Taylor Decker, Jason Spriggs and Germain Ifedi, which isn't too bad of a group considering how late the Packers pick.  

OG (1.1 picked per year): Both TJ Lang and Josh Sitton will be free agents next year and it might make sense to draft at least one of their replacements.  Guards are very rarely drafted in the first round and the Packers will again pretty much have their choice of the top rated guards in the draft.  This year Cody Whitehair, Vandall Alexander and Joshua Garnett will likely all be available when the Packers are on the clock.

DE (3.9 picked per year): Defensive line players get a little tricky to project since some are considered 4-3 DEs while other will be converted to 3-4 OLBs, but on average about 4 players who played DE in college will be drafted. The Packers certainly could use help on the defensive line and players such as Emmaneul Ogbah or Kevin Dodd will likely be available for the Packers to select.

DT (2.7 picked per year): A likely position the Packers will try to fill high in the draft, the Packers finally get a little bit lucky as this year is supposed to be have plenty of talented defensive tackles in the draft.  Jarran Reed, Andrew Billings and Robert Nkemdiche will likely all be there at 27 for the Packers to pick.

LB (3.3 picked per year): Again this average is little wonky given how some DEs are labelled LBs when they enter the league and how there's a distinct difference between OLBs and MLB/ILBs in the league.  Nevertheless, the Packers will likely see Jaylon Smith, Joshua Perry and Kentrell Brothers available when they select.

DB (4.9 picked per year): The Packers are pretty stocked at both CB and FS/SS so this isn't a likely place to spend their first round pick, add to that DBs are selected most often in the entire draft and the Packers will likely be picking fringe 1st round/solid 2nd round talent at the end of the 1st day.  Players like Jeremy Cash, Artie Burns and Xavien Howard will be available but none are considered 1st round picks in their own right.  

 

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Comments (36)

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Evan's picture

March 25, 2016 at 01:47 pm

"Illegal hands to the face, number 90, 10 yard penalty, 1st down."

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dobber's picture

March 25, 2016 at 01:50 pm

LOL!

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dobber's picture

March 25, 2016 at 02:14 pm

It's going to be a trench player or an OLB at #27 if the Packers use that pick. If there were any real chance of moving back into the top 8 picks of round 2, that would be ideal (get a player with a 1st round grade AND get another mid-rounder in return), but there's enough talent with round-1 grades that I don't see much of any movement for a pick like #27.

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zoellner25's picture

March 25, 2016 at 03:13 pm

don't care right now, as long we get a DT, LB, and TE in the first 3 rounds, not necessarily in that order.

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Handsback's picture

March 25, 2016 at 03:30 pm

I really think a defensive trench player will be selected first. I think the 2nd pick will be.......Jaylon Smith. If he's gone, TT will curse and shout into his phone while the Commish is at the podium and pick a OT or ILB.

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holmesmd's picture

March 26, 2016 at 06:03 am

You really think Jaylon Smith will be taken in the 2nd round?! The kid may not even be the same player ever again and he won't play until 2017! Not sure anyone is spending a 2nd rd pick on that uncertainty? I'm a big fan of his though but I think he'll drop down to rd 4-7 :/

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 25, 2016 at 04:26 pm

The article is interesting for the names that are listed and for the names that are omitted. The only positions with multiple candidates that I have assigned solid 1st round grades are DT and DE.

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TKWorldWide's picture

March 26, 2016 at 05:13 am

Do you grade the players yourself? (Not being a smartass, just curious)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 26, 2016 at 04:02 pm

I watch tape on the guys rated by the various sites between 13 and 40 or so. I ¨grade¨ about 100 or so prospects myself by watching several game tapes from draft break down, focusing more on our positional needs. My grading is not nearly as specific as the authors here this year. What are my grades worth? Somewhere between diddly squat and, being generous to myself, diddly squat plus. BTW, do not underestimate your smart ass side: it is often pretty entertaining.

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4EVER's picture

March 25, 2016 at 04:47 pm

This is the year to collect picks in rounds 2 - 4, if you happen to be in the market for NT, DE, OLB or TE.
So let's play the Billy B. draft-board. Find the desperate, the misguided; Tennessee, Detroit, Cleveland, San Diego, Dallas, San Fransisco, Jacksonville, Indianapolis. One or two will want back late in round 1, for a WR (Doctson, Fuller, Thomas, Washington) CB (Apple, Alexander, Jackson), or RB (Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry).

Round 2:
Jason Spriggs OT
Robert Nkemdiche or Carl Nassib DE
Round 3:
D.J. Reader NT
Round 4:
Joshua Garnett OG
Kenyan Drake RB
Jerell Adams TE
Jaylon Smith, or Joe Schobert LB

BPA - all fixed...

Rounds 5 - 7:
Punter anyone?

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Packer_Pete's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:24 pm

I'd love it if that played out this way...

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EdsLaces's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:52 pm

0% chance Adams falls to the 4th.

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LeagueObsrvr's picture

March 30, 2016 at 03:19 pm

I agree with this. I don't think Thompson would try to trade up in the first round, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ted makes a move up in the second or third round to grab a player he likes.

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AgrippaLII's picture

March 25, 2016 at 04:56 pm

The Packers have to find another pass rusher. I think it will be a DE or OLB. I thought about OT but Ted has done pretty well finding offensive linemen in later rounds...and he can get a good DT later too. None of the TE's have first round grades and the ILB's will be gone way before pick #27. TT would probably like to trade his first round pick but I doubt anyone will come calling. Taking all that in to account I think he goes after the highest rated pass rusher on his board even if it's a reach.

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AgrippaLII's picture

March 25, 2016 at 04:56 pm

The Packers have to find another pass rusher. I think it will be a DE or OLB. I thought about OT but Ted has done pretty well finding offensive linemen in later rounds...and he can get a good DT later too. None of the TE's have first round grades and the ILB's will be gone way before pick #27. TT would probably like to trade his first round pick but I doubt anyone will come calling. Taking all that in to account I think he goes after the highest rated pass rusher on his board even if it's a reach.

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TKWorldWide's picture

March 25, 2016 at 06:16 pm

I don't think he'll reach. The player might end up not panning out, but I don't think he'll reach. He'll "stay true to his board", like always.

BTW: what would any of us give for a look at "the board"??

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dobber's picture

March 25, 2016 at 06:54 pm

Only on days 1 and 2. After last May, I don't think I want to know about day 3....

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 25, 2016 at 05:17 pm

At this point it's going to be the best player available. The strength of this draft is the DL.

I would guess right now that they will be looking at DL or LB in the first. I can see them drafting Henry, but my guess is it will be on defense.

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marpag1's picture

March 25, 2016 at 05:51 pm

I actually like the guard idea, Cow. My feeling is that TT may try to trade back to the beginning of D2 where he will probably still be able to pick up one of those guys.

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dobber's picture

March 25, 2016 at 06:56 pm

Holding out hope that Noah Spence makes it to #27. He won't, but he could be a star and a true steal at that spot.

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sonomaca's picture

March 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm

You mean overrated substance abuser.

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Allan Murphy's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:10 pm

The first pic has to be starter day ...............

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TKWorldWide's picture

March 26, 2016 at 05:15 am

Or selfie

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Rossonero's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:11 pm

I'm thinking Packers will take bruising DT Andrew Billings at no. 27. A'Shawn Robinson is overrated and Ragland will probably be gone by then. Jarran Reed is a run stuffer, but offers little to no pass rush.

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Allan Murphy's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:14 pm

Good points .

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

March 25, 2016 at 09:24 pm

Ragland needs to play in a 4-3. You can't expect him to cover.

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sonomaca's picture

March 25, 2016 at 11:11 pm

Agree on Ragland. Packers need a linebacker who can cover. Unlike most Packers receivers (except Jordy) Doctson doesn't drop the ball. Fuller is a blazer who does drop the ball.

I think Elliott might fall given the fact that this guy was an incredibly hard party animal at Ohio State. He partied so hard that even his mega party animal roommate Bosa couldn't handle it.

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holmesmd's picture

March 26, 2016 at 06:10 am

I'm a fan of Billings and Would welcome that pick but why do you think Robinson is " overrated"? I wouldn't say that to his face. Lol. Seriously though, he's a pretty good player IMO.

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Allan Murphy's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:12 pm

The first pic has to be starter from day one .........

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Maverick91's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:28 pm

We need to use the first 3-4 rounds for defense. Then we can focus on adding some depth on the offensive line. Here are some picks we should take in the first 6 rounds:

- Round 1: Kevin Dodd or Leonard Floyd
- Round 2: Austin Johnson or Kenny Clark
- Round 3: Chris Jones, DE, Mississipi State
- Round 4, pick 1: Matt Judon, DE/3-4 OLB, Grad Valley State (Steal?)
- Round 4, pick 2: an OL
- Round 4, pick 3: an OL
- Round 5: DJ Reader, DT, Clemson
- Round 6: Jarrell Adams, TE, South Carolina (Great developmental prospect!)

This is assuming we sign Jared Cook and Karlos Dansby or Zach Brown in FA.

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Packer_Pete's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:27 pm

Reader won't last til round 5...

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EdsLaces's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:54 pm

Leonard Floyd .....yuck

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Maverick91's picture

March 25, 2016 at 08:49 pm

Lol, say what ya'll want but Floyd has the physical abilities to become the next Aldon Smith with a year or two of development. Dodd may be the better pick though.

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marpag1's picture

March 26, 2016 at 04:14 pm

I get your point, but I don't think I really want "the next Aldon Smith," who is currently out of football, and a major head case.

Much of what he accomplished in SF was just cherry-picking off of Justin Smith anyway.

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dobber's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:58 pm

Will be very curious to see where Judon falls (he's a local kid for us here)...he doesn't look like a 3-4 DE to me, maybe in an even front. Could be--ulp--a OLB conversion project who could really pay off.

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sonomaca's picture

March 25, 2016 at 11:02 pm

Although I'd rather have Billings because he plays like Mike Daniels, Chris Jones could be the most talented defensive linemen in this class. Downside on Jones: motor, off-the-field, and technique issues.

Talent-wise, sky is the limit.

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