Tundra Vision: Raji's Loss Stings More than Loss to Seahawks

The loss of BJ Raji will undoubtedly hang over the Packers' 2014 season. 

B.J. Raji Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

B.J. Raji Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

 
 
Oh, admit it. When you saw the first-string offense and the first-string defense dominate in their few preseason series, you got high hopes for the 2014 season. The offense is overwhelming, you thought. And the defense is much improved, you said.
 
And perhaps, when playing against the likes of the Raiders and Chiefs, the Green Bay Packers are good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people like them. But when playing the NFL elite, the Packers appear to be just below the threshold of competitiveness, just as they have for the past few seasons.
 
It's not hard to believe, and a point I've made several times over the past few years. Once the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010, they had a small window to repeat before they were burdened by the contract load of players cashing in on their rings, while other talented players would exodus for fat contracts elsewhere. It's not an accusation or an insult; its the reality of the success cycle for any NFL team that wins a championship. In the modern era of free agency, I can count on one finger the number of NFL teams that have been able to transcend the speedy rise-and-fall of their own empires.
 
In 2013, the Packers struggled on both sides of the ball, but the struggles on offense could be attributed to key injuries to critical performers that simply couldn't be adequately replaced. How do you find someone to be Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, or Jermichael Finley when those players are on the sideline for long stretches of time?
 
Answer: you don't.
 
So, the offense was already improved over the 2013 version simply due to having players like Rodgers and Cobb back at full strength for what we pray is the full 2014 season. It's a juggernaut of great players at nearly every position, when healthy. Even against the second-highest ranked Legion of Boom defense of the Seahawks, on its home field, celebrating its Lombardi Trophy, it held its own as much as it could.
 
If only the defense could have held its own against a read-option offense. And they didn't. By the middle of the second quarter, it was clear that the Seahawks had deciphered whatever new wrinkles Dom Capers and Co. had decided to throw at them. And they attacked in the usual spot: right up the middle.
 
If the offense could improve on last season's performance by simply getting healthy, what could the defense do for instant upgrades? Well, we would be remiss if we didn't mention the return of Clay Matthews' thumb and the acquisition of a wiley veteran in Julius Peppers. Certainly, they both make the defense better.
 
But they make the defense better on the outside, rushing the quarterback and trying to create havok. But their ability to make an impact is still dependent on the stoutness of the inside. Such is the base mentality of the 3-4 defense, or any of its hybrids.  The inside linebackers and interior linemen don't have to be playmakers, but they do need to be workmanlike in holding their gaps and forcing the pocket back, running the quarterback into narrow spaces that would take him right to Peppers or Matthews.
 
The reality is no improvements were truly made to what is clearly the weakest and most vulnerable part of this team. The safety position is still questionable. Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm one of the biggest Ha Ha Clinton-Dix fans on the planet, but I'm also smart enough to realize that a true free safety needs some experience under his belt before he can really be a difference-maker. Our last true free safety, Nick Collins, didn't have the game slow down for him until his fifth season in 2009. Now, Collins didn't sport a particularly high Wonderlic, which might have impacted how long it took for him to "get it". I don't think it will take Clinton-Dix as long to truly step in and become the quarterback of the defense, but I'm pretty sure it will take longer than one season, too.
 
Even more questionable are the inside linebackers, Brad Jones and AJ Hawk. Mind you, Hawk is an overall solid player, and I truly believe in a 4-3, he'd have a stronger impact as a field general and playmaker. But a 3-4 ILB isn't asked to be a field general or playmaker. They're asked to stand stout and eat up blockers on rushing plays and collapse the pocket or cover the tight end on passing plays. None of these are Hawk's strengths.
 
And while we may not have looked to upgrade Hawk, its glaring that Jones needed to be upgraded. He might be unfairly singled out as a goat from the Seattle game, but the point stands that he's not "that guy" the playmakers on the outside need.
 
This offseason, the Packers rolled the dice that so many of their past high draft picks would suddenly develop past the ceilings they had already seemed to hit. Datone Jones, Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy (since traded), Casey Hayward, and Davon House were just a few that needed to improve. But that in itself isn't an upgrade. And none of those players other than Worthy were expected to improve the middle of the defense, anyway.
 
For some odd reason, despite drafting defensive players in the first and second rounds the past few offseasons, Ted Thompson has continued to avoid upgrading the interior of the front seven. Which brings me to the One Thing That Might Have Really Improved The Defense in 2014.
 
And that, my friends, was BJ Raji.
 
BJ Raji, you say? BJ Raji, the guy we were ready to let go in free agency and not shed a tear over it? The guy we signed to a massive one-year deal because no one else would offer him that much? The guy who did his best impression of The Invisible Man the past few seasons as a defensive end?
 
Yep, that's the guy. You see, a defensive end in the 3-4 isn't expected to just sit and be stout. They're expected to rush and make an impact. That's not Raji's forte.
 
It's been a long and drawn-out lesson for Dom Capers and Mike McCarthy, but sometimes, necessity is the mother of realization. When an aging Ryan Pickett and an injured Johnny Jolly weren't brought back along the defensive line for the Packers this season, Raji was going to be moved back to his natural nose tackle position...because the only other viable option of Letroy Guion.
 
You know, the position I talked about earlier...the one where your primary job is to eat up blockers and force the pocket back? A good 3-4 nose tackle can go the entire season without a single sack or even a pressure. But if they do their job, the sacks and pressures should pile up for the guys on the outside to do their job.
 
More importantly, a stout nose tackle is the first line of defense in stymying the read-option. Taking away the running lanes up the middle of the field forces the quarterback to the sides, and that where Matthews and Peppers should be waiting.
 
BJ Raji was a man finally back in the position where he could make an impact, and was showing every indication that the nose tackle would actually be an upgrade from last season. And then, he tore his bicep and will sit out the season.
 
To me, this is as impactful an injury as Aaron Rodgers last season. The Packers simply had no way to even come close to replacing AR's talent, and the effect on the surrounding players was immeasurable. Rodgers simply makes the guys around him better, and that's what an impact player truly does.
 
The dropoff from what BJ Raji could and would have done for the Packers defense this year to Guion is more like a cliff than a dropoff. It truly marks a regression from an aging Ryan Pickett to a young player who is overwhelmed. But more importantly, it means the middle of the field is wide open again, as it has been for the past three seasons. It means that now you're looking to AJ Hawk and Brad Jones to constantly have to be the second line of containment. And as a result, you're looking to your safeties to make your tackles.
 
I always say when your safeties are leading the team in tackles, you're doing something wrong. Very, very wrong. Lo and behold, Morgan Burnett led the team with 8 tackles last Thursday, five of them solo. More importantly, Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Clinton-Dix all had more tackles than Clay Matthews or Julius Peppers.
 
Sure, we'll play the Jets next week, and then the Lions and maybe we'll all feel a little bit better about ourselves. Maybe the talent we have on the defense will come together against an inferior offense and allow Aaron Rodgers and Co. some breathing room to do what they do best, instead of feeling like the entire mantle of responsibility to win the game is all on their shoulders.
 
In those games, the middle triangle of Hawk, Jones, and Guion will be good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people will like them.
 
But when the Packers go against the NFL elite, the teams they will face off against in the playoffs, those teams will know right where to go. The result in Week One was already a loss.
But the biggest loss really happened a few weeks earlier when the guy who might have actually been an upgrade (not only for the defense, but for himself) tore a muscle and left the most vulnerable part of the defense more vulnerable than ever.
 
 
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Comments (49)

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pooch's picture

September 07, 2014 at 11:22 am

Put Pennel at nose,Perry o.l. Cm3 i.l. ,barrington i.l.,Richardson replace burnette.See if that dont strenthen middle....haha never hapoen not with this coaching staff,cause they would be admitting they would be admitting they have no clue about there personnel

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:23 pm

Pooch, I like moving clay to ILB.

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The GrEEn kNiGhT's picture

September 07, 2014 at 11:23 am

We need to sign Raji to a long term deal in the offseason and nab a MLB in the first round. Maybe look for another one in Free Agency. Then our defense will be complete. Mosley or Shazier would have made a huge difference against Seattle the other night.

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:23 pm

Long term? Based on what performance, the preseason? Let him go.

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TKWorldWide's picture

September 07, 2014 at 09:57 pm

You don't just nab an ILB in the first round if there is no player worthy of being selected that high. That's called a reach, and it is the kiss of death.

However, here's to hoping there IS a worthy player at that spot. Soon!

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pooch's picture

September 07, 2014 at 11:23 am

Oops need to edit and omit one admitted

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The GrEEn kNiGhT's picture

September 07, 2014 at 11:25 am

I am still pissed at Ravens and Steelers stealing them from us. I know TT would have taken either.

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JimTaylor31's picture

September 07, 2014 at 11:58 am

Steelers probably considered Shazier BPA so they grabbed him. Bottom line is we have been putting up with mediocre ILB play since Bishop was hurt. This wasn't the only year Ted could've picked an ILB early as the problem has been pretty glaring for 2-3 years prior to now. Actually longer than that considering Hawk has started since day 1. We've lots of time and opportunity to upgrade the position but have just chosen not to.

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4thand1's picture

September 07, 2014 at 12:14 pm

Pull the trigger Ted. Trade for an ILB.

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PackerBacker's picture

September 08, 2014 at 10:58 am

Trade who? For whom? There's nobody out there who's starting caliber who is available for trade.

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4thand1's picture

September 07, 2014 at 12:21 pm

Seattle seems to be way ahead of everyone in the NFL. They play power football and great defense. If they take care of the football, no one will beat them. While all the teams are pass pass pass, they built a D to defend it. Also they take away the run as good as anyone. Defense still wins championships.

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NickPerry's picture

September 07, 2014 at 01:46 pm

Is it a coincidence the drafts haven't been as good since Jon Schneider went to Seattle? These GM's that leave Thompson's nest don't seem to follow his draft and develop approach. Schneider, Dorsey, and Mckinnzie all seem to use everything available to them, trade, FA, and the draft. I think Ted T is a great GM, none better at managing a cap. I just really wish he'd use all the available ways to build a team. I mean how great would have it been for the Packers to have traded for Anquan Bolden for what amount to Demetri Goodson in this years draft. Seattle's OL is not considered a strength of their team, yet they blew the Packers D-Line up. It might sound like I'm on the ledge, I'm not. But is this only obvious to me? If I was Ted T, I'd go sign Eric Winston in a hurry. The last thing I want to see is #12 on the ground because Sherrod can't move his feet.

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Razor's picture

September 07, 2014 at 12:43 pm

One question: How is Seattle able to build such a dominant defense and strong offense while Green Bay goes backwards?

Okay one more question: Do they know something that Ted doesn't know?

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:07 pm

Wait and see what happens when Wilson gets his monster check, and those DB's get there pay checks as well. That team will be decimated by the cap.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:35 pm

You Nailed it here. That's exactly how Seattle was able to build their team. I know I will get killed on this, because I posted this once before. As a 40 year Union Man, I believe at some point the NFL will have to come up with a Pay Scale for all Players. That's the way it works with every other Union in this country. Why should it be any different in the NFL. Your QB is your Skilled Trade. He gets paid the highest rate, determined by the Union & the Company through negotiation. Every other starting player on the team, gets paid the same, also through negotiations. It doesn't matter if you are a #1 wide receiver, or a guard. If you are a starter, you get paid the same as the guy next to you. That's how it works in all other Union Shops. All 2ond string players also get paid the same. If the 1st string guy goes down, the 2ond string guy who fills in gets 1st string pay. The guy who goes down gets 2ond string pay. Every starting player is equally important to the team. In a Union Shop, it doesn't matter what you know, or how good you are, the pay is the same for all 1st tier workers. Why should Josh Sitton, who is protecting the franchise, get less because he is a guard. The $$$$ needs to be spread out equally. That's how ALL UNIONS WORK. I don't expect many of you to agree, but that's how it works in THE REAL WORLD. I know, I did it for 40 years. LVT

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 06:50 pm

Tom, I appreciate both your response and passion. I too work in a tiered pay scale , though non-union. There are no doubt benefits to it, but in the case of the NFL does Hawk really equal Rodgers? Let Seattle enjoy there luck and skill in the draft and player salary; we sure did a few years ago. Thank you for your well written response.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

September 07, 2014 at 07:48 pm

Tommy G, No Hawk would never get Rodgers pay, but all other starters would be paid the same salary, & that would include, unfortunately, Hawk. In a Union Shop, there is No Incentive to make more money between contracts. Unfortunately, you also have people in Union Shops who are not worth the same as the guy next to him. That's just the way it is. My point was, There IS NO UNION SHOP, OR UNION OF ANY KIND where members within the Union can individually increase their pay between or at contract time. There is another way some Unions operate, that do offer incentives. They have different pay grades for different jobs. That might work in the NFL, but all starting Receivers would be paid the same, as would all other positions. These pay grades would all be negotiated. The fact that there are Hawks in Union Shops, is the fault of the hiring practice of the company, just as it is with THE MANAGEMENT of GB. As stated earlier, I don't expect most to understand this concept, but I do believe it's closer to reality than you might think. As far as incentive goes, it's a players incentive to make 1st string. I wish I could have negotiated my wages over the years. It's just not a part of any, (REPEAT), any other Union in this country. That was my point. Police, Fire Fighters are all in the same pay grades according to Rank & Seniority. Without some type of change, QB's will be making $50 MILLION a year, Guards will make $20 Million, & it will soon all be Pay Per View. Maybe $24.95 a week for the game. This is where it is heading. JMO

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 07:55 pm

Thank you for expounding. On a sad note, I believe your pay-per-view prediction is not that far in the future.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

September 07, 2014 at 08:08 pm

Agreed TommyG!! Thanks for being Respectful. LVT

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MarkinMadison's picture

September 07, 2014 at 09:30 pm

Never going to happen. My dad was a union guy for 40 years too, No offense but 90% of the real world does not include unions anymore. If they want to survive, they will need to start looking more like the NFL, not the other way around.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

September 07, 2014 at 10:32 pm

I can't argue with that. Unfortunately for Every worker in this country, whether Union or Non-Union, the Unions have all but died. Wages have plummeted as well. The $20 hr jobs have been replaced with $10 hr jobs. If you think that is good for this country, I feel sorry for you. I didn't mean to insinuate that "The Real World" was made up of Unions. I meant in The Real World of Unions, that's how it works. Survive??? At $7 to $12 hr?? I don't think so. The NFL doesn't operate in the Real World, the rest of us do. Ask your Dad what he thinks. I believe he'd tell you the same thing I did. Putting it mildly, It's Corporate Greed. It exists in the NFL. My Dad is gone, but he could see it. I bet your Dad would have a different opinion than you. I Respect your opinion, I just don't agree with it. Unions helped bring up the wages for all workers in this country. Because of places like Mexico & China, they no longer have any power. Even the standard of living of the Public Union workers is being lowered in wages & benefits. In essence, you are correct. To survive the Unions will have to change, but it won't help the workers any, only the Union Reps.

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MarkinMadison's picture

September 08, 2014 at 01:01 pm

You are attributing a lot of opinions to me that I never expressed.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

September 08, 2014 at 02:05 pm

MarkinMadison, If I did that, I apologize. Maybe I misread, or didn't understand your post. No hard feelings I hope. LVT

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Razor's picture

September 07, 2014 at 12:46 pm

Dear Mark,

The team is headed in the wrong direction. How is this possible? Are you concerned? Are you embarrassed? Do you want this to be your legacy?

I will be waiting anxiously for your reply.

Sincerely,
Razor

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zoellner25's picture

September 07, 2014 at 01:32 pm

Say bye bye to colt lyerla, arrested again.

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Allan Murphy's picture

September 07, 2014 at 08:11 pm

did he for what ?

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:05 pm

I'm getting sick of this "Raji was the answer" crap. Last year he sucked. The year before that he sucked. Everyone on this page wanted him gone. Now he gets a one year sweetheart deal and gets injured. Had he stayed healthy (big if there) he would've still sucked. Don't throw the "contract year" crap in there either. Last year was a contract year and he sucked. Our defense cannot stop the middle run or passes in the middle part of the field. Had Raji been there against Seattle, our packers still would not have been able to cover nor tackle. Stop with the Raji love.... Please. By the way, old fashioneds are awesome!

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Allan Murphy's picture

September 07, 2014 at 08:14 pm

put that rookie in pernal better then other 3 ?

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 08:59 pm

Better? No. Role player who soaks up blocks? Let's find out. We run a 3-4, and while we can debate that system, it's what we have. What we need is good iLB; which we don't have.

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Tundraboy's picture

September 08, 2014 at 08:28 pm

Agreed. Would he make a difference ? Raji ? No He would have been gassed. >Another smokescreen for the obvious, we need two nasty , fast ILBs.

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pooch's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:07 pm

so having Raji in the middle would turn Hawk,Jones,Burnette into studs?? Not a fucking chance this article sucks,last year turned down 8 mil for what 12 mil??? and turned in a huge shit of season.do some better sports writing/reporting

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pooch's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:16 pm

With you big T. G. ole fashions my pick

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:28 pm

Heck yeah! And I'm talking the WI style, not this fancy, dry, stuffy offering they have here in DC.

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pooch's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:18 pm

Once again,Pennel at nose,Richardson replace Burnette and haha full time.Barrington for Jones and Perry or CM3 at inside for Hawk...

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Tundraboy's picture

September 10, 2014 at 08:42 pm

Makes sense to me.

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KenEllis's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:20 pm

The Niners play a 3-4 D like the Pack.

Last year the 49ers lost their starting Nose Tackle Ian Williams to an injury in Week 2.

The Niners run D did not collapse.

Stop, please stop with the excuses because the D has been bad with and without Raji.

It is time to look at the fundamental issues confronting the perennial defensive failures.

And yes, that means actually considering whether the GM has failed to provide sufficient talent and whether the defensive coordinator has failed to properly utilize the talent at his disposal.

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:35 pm

KenEllis, you've asked a fair question: has the GM done his job at filling team needs? Yes, he brought in AR, CM, and Lacy. Is this enough? For me to keep him, yes it is. I think there are bigger issues with this franchise. Who are the scouts looking at, what role are the coaches playing in player selection (too big or too small), why is it even chris collinsworth can see that our ILB suck out loud, and yet our GM cannot find proper replacements. Is it pride? Is it stupidity or ignorance? Why can we not find great OL players when other teams seem to be building like crazy? These are systematic issues and speak to a bigger problem in our Packer front office.

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pooch's picture

September 07, 2014 at 05:46 pm

Ted = pride/arrogance will bring you down

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4thand1's picture

September 07, 2014 at 07:29 pm

OK, I'd like the people who were raving about the Saints great defense to show up. They gave up nearly 600 yards and 37 points.

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TommyG's picture

September 07, 2014 at 07:44 pm

Were people raving about the Saint's D? Oh my!

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4thand1's picture

September 07, 2014 at 09:16 pm

AAAWWWWW there's one now. you suck. How do you keep that big head upright? I suppose I can quit watching now that the season is over.

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4thand1's picture

September 07, 2014 at 09:35 pm

Holy crap, by tomorrow night 16 teams' seasons will be over according to cowpie's logic. Week 2= sweet 16 in the NFL.

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Icebowler's picture

September 07, 2014 at 09:22 pm

In retrospect, I guess we should have drafted Nix instead of Dix after all.

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TKWorldWide's picture

September 07, 2014 at 09:59 pm

Long as it rhymes with "icks".

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 08, 2014 at 02:40 am

1) What preseason did you watch?
2) You do realize that an NT['s] job is different than a
3-4 DE, don't you?
3) I guess you didn't notice....
4) I guess you weren't watching the same game I did.

Answers:

1) Every packer game, every snap.
2) Yeah, I do. So does probably everyone else who
comments on this site.
3) Yes, pretty sure we all noticed the FA signings of
Woodson and Pickett.
4) I watched the packer game. Don't know what
game you watched.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 08, 2014 at 02:59 am

As a note, the light came on for Nick Collins in his 4th year, the 2008 season. Collins was named All Pro, and recorded arguably his finest season by intercepting 7 passes and returning them for 295 yards (which led the league), and 3 TDs, and had 60 solo tackles and 12 assists, along with 15 passes defensed (career high).

I only note this because Darren Perry was hired in February of 2009, the year after the light came on for Nick Collins. The best evidence on the field to support Perry's ability as a coach might be Banjo perhaps realizing all or most of his potential and possibly Richardson's encouraging play during the preseason, although the jury in my mind is still out until we see him during a regular NFL game. Let's see what he can do with Clinton-Dix and Richardson.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 08, 2014 at 03:37 am

I read the argument that Raji will be great if he is just allowed to play NT ad nauseam from Stroh. [Mea Culpa: any comparison to Stroh might be considered a cheap shot by some here. There were arguments that he would be a good 2 gapping NT, and then that he would be better because GB was moving to a 1 gapping system. Well, Guion looked like a no-gap control NT.] However, I do not discount the possibility that Raji might have played well at NT this year. We might never find out while he is in GB. If TT does decide to make him some kind of offer, I hope it is pay as you go, such that he can be cut if he doesn't perform. To be clear, I also think Guion deserves a chance to get some reps and get into football shape after missing almost all of preseason and getting only 9 snaps. Starting Guion against Seattle says more about Boyd than it does against Guion, IMHO.

What I can't help remembering is that Raji's draft profile indicated tremendous physical gifts (he was rated in these areas noticeably higher than CMIII, but he got extremely low assessments in character and work ethic. Here is a link to his draft profile:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/1243129

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Sportspack's picture

September 08, 2014 at 07:43 am

Optimism = Doing the same things over and over and over again and expecting different results.( I know the word normally used is not optimism) A couple of guys used the tired question "what game were you watching",
well try watching some other games. It is amazing how different other teams play (good and bad). Bring back Raji? C'mon now! Check the league for ex-packers (not much) I read how teams were lining up to sign our cuts this year. Still waiting. Over-rated starts at the top and flows thru the team. Oh and for the positions that the players are so bad--- maybe question the position coaches. Oh wait, I forgot, injuries---- that's the issue.
Oh and Raji naa.

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Imma Fubared's picture

September 08, 2014 at 01:00 pm

One issue I have about the Raji arguement is, was he supposed to stop Harvin and others from running wide? Was he there to pass rush? Would his presence put more pressure on a mobile QB who ran around Mathews twice.
If teams thought he was a run stopper, do they try and prove it or run somewhere else?
My point is, the Packers showed a lack of speed on defense all around except for Mathews.
If you saw the tape you saw the Seattle backs going four or five yards before a packer could even touch them. They weren't being confronted in the backfield.

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