The Winners and Losers at the Packers WR Position - Roster Odds

The Packers final minicamp of 2017 is in the books and now the players are off until training camp starts on July 27th. That gives us a good five weeks to think about the 2017 edition of the Green Bay Packers and what the composition of the roster might look like, Today we take a look at the Packers' crowded wide receiver position and try to lay some odds on which players will make the 53-man roster.

It's hard to imagine any other NFL team will have as much competition for the final wide receiver spots as the Packers will. It was a similar situation last season, but this year is going to be even tougher. Last year I successfully predicted the Packers would keep 7 wide receivers on the roster. but in all honestly, I didn't really believe it. For me, it was the only way I could see the Packers keeping Geronimo Allison on the roster, a move for which I was a strong proponent. I was convinced Allison would be grabbed by another team and never make the practice squad. Of course, Tricky Ted rolled the dice and won that bet. Allison survived being on the practice squad and eventually was added to the 53-man roster 7 games into the season.

Crazy as it seems, Allison is far from a sure thing this season. After drafting two wide receivers back in April, the Packers now show 12 wide receivers on their roster. Three roster spots are insured; Nelson, Adams & Cobb. After that, it gets a bit crazy.

Predicting winners and losers is always a fun exercise, so here is my early shot at laying odds for which receivers will make the Packers roster"

Jordy Nelson - WR1

Davante Adams - WR2

Randall Cobb - WR3

Jeff Janis - Janis has never really found himself as a wide receiver but has proven to be very valuable as a gunner on special teams. Still, this could be the year the Packers move on from Janis if someone else on the Packers can assume that role (maybe Josh Jones?). ODDS = 5-1

Geronimo Allison - As mentioned above Allison did as well as you could expect for a PS call-up. Allison ended up with 17 catches on 30 targets for two TDs. He showed a surprising understanding of what to do and where to go when Rodgers was in the throes of his scramble drill. Not a speed burner, he has to depend on route running, smarts and size for success in the NFL. ODDS = 5-1

DeAngelo Yancy - His size and strength were the two attributes that stood out, according to Packers' Director of Football Operations Eliot Wolf. Has just enough speed to beat defensive backs, but is not a burner.  The Second-Team All-Big Ten receiver is built similar to Ty Montgomery, but his style of play may remind you more of James Jones. Blocking ability will be a big plus for Yancy. ODDS = 8-1

Trevor Davis - Davis was drafted for his speed, but has not shown much more than that. If any of the newcomers can take the top off a defense and catch the ball, Davis will be gone. ODDS = 20-1

Malachi Dupre - The kid can certainly jump (39.5" vertical, 135" broad jump), but can he be a productive wide receiver is the big question. He was hampered by some poor QB play at LSU, but beyond making the occasional acrobatic catch, did not distinguish himself as a reliable receiver or downfield blocker. Beating press coverage and catching contested balls is an issue, however, he has had surprising success with deep routes despite not being a burner. Very adept at tracking the ball and making those deep catches. ODDS = 20-1

Max McCaffrey - Added to the Packers' practice squad off the street last December as WR injuries mounted,  McCaffrey was actually added to the roster to the roster for the Falcon game, but not activated when the "questionable" Nelson, Adams and Allison all ended up playing. Ran a 4.46 40yd dash at his Pro Day and has shown some deep speed in OTAs. Has the early advantage of more time with the playbook than the rookies, but a few weeks into training camp I expect him to be passed up as the others catch up. ODDS = 30-1

Montay Crockett - Crockett ran a 4.39 40yd dash and was measured with a 39" vertical at his Pro Day. His best attribute is running crisp, precise routes at high speed. Seems to have his head on straight - talks a lot about leadership, effort, desire, accountability, etc. whenever interviewed. Caught only 32 passes in four years at Georgia Southern, with 24 coming last year. Has a huge hill to climb just to make the Practice Squad. ODDS = 30-1

Colby Pearson - Pearson was sIgned a few weeks ago after the Packers released punter Jacob Schaum. Pearson was a BYU teammate of the Packers' Jamal Williams and Taysom Hill last season. He caught 38 passes las season, more than half of his production over his BYU career. Only averaged 10yds per catch, so we could be looking at a possession receiver type - can't say because I haven't seen him play at all. ODDS = 50-1

Michael Clark - A rare find as a 6'6" wide receiver, but there is little else that stands out about Clark. Couldn't decide between basketball and football. Would likely still be playing basketball if he was good enough, so there are questions about his commitment to football. Extremely raw. ODDS = 100-1

 

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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther.  Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP

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Comments (45)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 22, 2017 at 11:38 pm

Well, your analysis is as good, probably better, than my guesses. Personally, I thought Davis and Yancey were little better than UDFAs. I like Crockett as much as either in fact.

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dobber's picture

June 23, 2017 at 08:49 am

Crockett is intriguing to me if only because they don't have anyone else like him at the moment. Lack of college production (even though he comes out of a run-first system at GSU) is troubling, though.

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Since69's picture

June 23, 2017 at 06:06 am

I'll say we keep 6 this year: Nelson, Adams, Cobb, Janis, Allison and Dupree.

I loved the Dupree pick. I think he's going to pull a Driver and be around a long time...

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KamThomps's picture

June 23, 2017 at 06:52 am

I have said it elsewhere, so I will repeat it here. Our WR's will rank as Adams, Nelson, Allison, Cobb. In that order. All could have 1,000 yard seasons. All could have over ten TD's.

Nelson and Cobb are of one style of play, Adams and Allison the next wave, as it were. (Obviously, I believe Allison is far better than you have credited him.) Rodgers is still evolving as a passer. Sounds crazy, I know. But I think we have only seen intimations of the QB he will be, and Adams and Allison are integral to that progression.

I think Davis is a wash. I would let him go before any of the others. Janis could have a good career - elsewhere. I would keep him for ST, as well, but I would unleash the hound. He is hungry. Let him hunt.

The new kids on the proverbial block will have to prove themselves and I look forward to seeing it.

The Packer's offense is going to be a juggernaut this year. Let's hope the defense can step it up as well. Go Pack go!

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 23, 2017 at 07:02 am

There was an article a few weeks ago about the WR's and I wrote this on there.

If I were to guess right now I would say 6, but could also see 7 making it, depending on how the other positions fall.
I think if you put players into tiers it helps determine who has the best chances of making it. Obviously this goes without saying that it is not taking into account any injuries that may occur.

Tier 1 - Locks
Nelson, Adams, Cobb

Tier 2 - Good bet.
Allison

Tier 3 - Good chance
Janis, Davis, Yancey, Dupre

Tier 4 - Have a chance, but have a lot to prove
McCaffrey, Clark, Crockett, Pearson
This group has some really intriguing players. Mostly likely a couple of them are destined to be on the PS.

Out of Tier 4 I think Michael Clark is probably the most intriguing player. At 6'6 217 lbs he runs really well for his size (4.53 - 40). He was a former basketball player who only played 1 year of college football. He has much to learn but his size/speed is very intriguing.
I'm really looking forward to seeing what McCaffrey does this preseason.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 23, 2017 at 07:25 am

It is interesting to read your estimation for Travor Davis. Davis was only one from WR group mentioned by Mike McCarthy as one who showed substantial improvement from the last year. To remind you, he was serving as PR and KR for part of the season and finished with the best record on the team for PR. So, as Jeff Janis, he has some ST experience working in his favor... Finally he nicely catched TD against Atlanta (first game) on side... He was reported to be much more polished route runner than Janis.

Also, regarding Michael Clark. I read a lot of reports of him which agrees with your "extremely raw" remark, but, contrary to you they are more favorable for young player. Few reports I read, claims that he has huge upside. I did not found any negative reports regarding him, esspecially not regarding his doubts about basketball/football decision... But, I think he is PS candidate...

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 23, 2017 at 07:31 am

I am really looking forward to seeing what kind of improvement Davis makes from year 1 to year 2.
Davis mentioned that it was hard for him to play fast when he was thinking all the time last year. Now that he has had a full offseason and time to grasp the offense more, perhaps we will see more of his abilities and speed.

Clark is intriguing to me based on his size and speed. Watching what I could find on him, you can really see his basketball background with his ability to high point the football. I am looking forward to seeing what he does this preseason.

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Handsback's picture

June 23, 2017 at 07:48 am

This is the first time I've seen that Crockett had good precise route running at high speed. If that is the case, and I have no reason not to believe it, then Crockett makes the team. You can't have a 4.39 guy running great routes at full speed and not sign him. (Unless he has hands of stone)
McCaffery, Davis and Janis are also speed guys but I have no idea how good they are or improved from last year. I have to think Janis may be gone if Davis, McCaffery, or Crockett can be the PR and/or PR.
Clark and Yancey seem like PS guys until they are up to speed on the Packer's playbook. Leaving Dupree as the most likely guy to make the roster.

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Spock's picture

June 23, 2017 at 08:10 am

I think the odds on Clark Jersey Al makes is about right. A basketball player who can't jump?! He might be "intriguing" but the fact he could barely get on the court as a basketball player says something about his lack of athleticism IMHO. He did okay in his one year at football but I'm just not excited about another raw guy who happens to be large. I'm more interested in Dupre and Yancy as they seem like they would make more viable candidates. Once the pads go on we will see.

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Chris Scoggins's picture

June 23, 2017 at 08:33 am

I'd put even money on Janis not making the squad - he simply hasn't progressed on route running to even be a reliable emergency option at WR. Davis was drafted last year giving him an extra-notch in the 'pros' column. He can serve as a returner and if he shows any ability to serve as a gunner (he certainly has the speed to do it) I say he beats out Janis.

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x24's picture

June 23, 2017 at 09:16 am

Marsellus Wallace on Janis; "You came close, but you never made it, and if you were gonna make it, you would have made it before now. "

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dobber's picture

June 23, 2017 at 09:23 am

If the only value you put on Janis is as a WR, then, yes, he's had his chances and it might be time to move on. But he's one of the top ST players in the league. Part of why he's so good is that his strength allows him to handle the DBs and other smaller players tasked with trying to control him on his way downfield. They can't do it. It's not just that he's fast.

Davis will never be a gunner. He's too frail, and will spend most of his time trying to cover punts getting up off the ground or trying to get back off the sideline.

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stockholder's picture

June 23, 2017 at 09:36 am

Davis was a bad pick. He wasn't NFL ready. There were better options. Cobb will be doing the punts more. And if he doesn't, it'll be a big mistake.

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 23, 2017 at 10:01 am

"Davis was a bad pick. He wasn't NFL ready."

How many 5th round picks come in and tear up the league right away? Most draft picks are not NFL ready. It takes most a couple of years to develop.

"There were better options."
These are the WR's picked after Davs.
Tyreek Hill
Rashard Higgins
Moritz Boehringer
Jakeem Grant
Kolby Listenbee
Cody Core
Mike Thomas
Aaron Burbridge

These were the 10 picks right after Davis.
Halapoulivaati Vaitai
Tyreek Hill
D.J. Reader
Marqui Christian
Spencer Drango
Antwione Williams
Alex Collins
Rashard Higgins
Trey Caldwell
Fahn Cooper

Outside of Hill who I'm assuming they took off their draft board as many teams did, not really any better options here.
Who would you have preferred them taking over Davis?

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stockholder's picture

June 23, 2017 at 11:02 am

You are correct about how many 5th round WRs start. And thats why I would have not taken him. The need for the packers was LB. I would have selected Jatavis Brown. And I wasn't the only one who question the pick. And I wasn't the only one who thought of Brown. He was the fastest LB and I thought he would have easily replaced Thomas.

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RCPackerFan's picture

June 23, 2017 at 11:25 am

To be fair not many 5th rounders in general do much. Not just WR's. I wasn't just talking about WR's.

I for the record LOVED Brown. And i do agree I would have taken him as well. Also Brown was one of the players in the running for DROY.

I appreciate your answer though because most of the time people don't tend to back up their statements with real answers.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

June 23, 2017 at 04:58 pm

You have a good point. Looks like the 2015 draft wasn't the deepest. I really wanted Jatavis Brown (like you), and Tretola as well (Tretola didn't do anything in Tenn either, though), or DJ Reader. What is odd is that I would have taken Brown, Tretola or Reader instead of Davis - I usually don't know players past about the first 125. Otherwise, maybe the following:

Burbridge was a force on STs, leading SF in ST tackles1, 14th in the NFL.
Core has 17 recs for 200 yards
DJ Reader gave Houston 404 snaps - not real familiar w him

Have to wait another season or two to judge this.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 24, 2017 at 03:38 am

As it become obvious now that Packers are not interested in building ILB position by drafting ILB, especially not in early rounds, I really do not understand why many fans do not see the philosophy Packers are using to build the roster. They are drafting "football players" or, if you like more, versatile, multipurpose players. Players which can play several positions because todays football evolved to much more complex game in which you can not cover all posibilities opponents are throwing to you. Same on offense as well as on defense. E. g. RB who can be real danger as WR, TE who can be lead blocker or who can catch deep ball, WR who can play RB or help in blocking situations, or S who can play CB, but also who can play ILB, or DL player who can play OLB if that situation allows (that is why Packers drafted Lowry and M. Adams). Specialists are not wanted goods that much any more...

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Gman1976's picture

June 24, 2017 at 10:59 am

Remember too that for years we had a CB named Jarrett Bush. Every time, he came in to play CB, I would cringe. For all too often, he would give up a catch. But he played with everything he had and was a special team's ace. He was great as a gunner; and his ST ability kept him employed for a long time in GB. On the other hand, I don't cringe when Jeff Janis is on the field. When given the opportunity, he makes plays (yes, even on offense), and he especially makes great plays as a gunner on ST. He literally shuts down the opposing special team's play again and again. He makes the team.

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stockholder's picture

June 23, 2017 at 08:40 am

Regardless of the odds. I still see this position changing in the next couple of years. I don't think there are any keepers after Nelson and Cobb. (As long as TT is GM. ) My bet is this position gets over-drafted. The packers WR position will keep turning over. These guys have to show that their better Nelson and Cobb. Until then, it's going to be musical chairs.

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JerseyAl's picture

June 23, 2017 at 01:57 pm

Adams is not a keeper?

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dobber's picture

June 23, 2017 at 03:49 pm

Oh, Al...

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JerseyAl's picture

June 23, 2017 at 10:43 pm

Oh, Dobber?

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dobber's picture

June 26, 2017 at 03:30 pm

I think I need a cigarette...

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stockholder's picture

June 23, 2017 at 10:26 pm

Al it's to early for me to pay him 10 mil. plus. Had he done better in the early years. I would say he's a keeper. I saw the bad routes. He was blamed for INTs. MM handled him with gloves. I told your readers that A-Rod had to throw to his left hand. And I still have not seen enough of him going over the middle, to make a catch. The positive is " He has gotten faster with the ball. " If he gets more money someplace else, good for him. Just how do you pay somebody thats afraid of the middle? And Especially for things he should have done before walking on a edge.

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JerseyAl's picture

June 23, 2017 at 10:52 pm

He took a big jump last season, caught 75 passes and 12TDs. He will take another jump this year and firmly be the #2 WR and the Packers will extend or re-sign him. At what number, we have no idea.

And where are you getting this "won't go over the middle" stuff from? Go look at an Adams highlight reel from last year on youtube. Almost half of the passes in the one I watched are in the middle of the field.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 24, 2017 at 03:41 am

You are right. I do not understand why people is so against Davante Adams. He had very good rookie season, his second season was ruined by hard and really bad injuries, but in 3rd season, when he was healthy he showed why Aaron always talked positively about Adams...

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stockholder's picture

June 24, 2017 at 06:46 am

He did jump. Take another jump?- OK thats what I want to see. Where I'm getting over the middle// isn't the quick slants or hooks. ( It's passes beyond 10 yards. ) Not the short stuff! (how many?) Utube is not a good evaluation. So you want to pay Adams 10 plus, Nelson 10 plus, Cobb 10 plus million.= 30 mil. Next up A-rods. 20 mil.plus. Cap problems coming! OK - lets say you cut Cobb. - I am not in favor of that. I'll take the guy that catches down field. A punt returner. Was doing backfield runs. I like players that are versatile. Their threats. Sounds like Adams is your #2 based on more catches. But how did he get that name Drop- Vante.? I need to see more.

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SpudRapids's picture

June 26, 2017 at 02:12 pm

You need to see more from Davante yet you are perennial Janis defender.... stay consistent in how you critique WR's

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stockholder's picture

June 27, 2017 at 08:12 pm

Janis will be gone after this season, maybe sooner. I have been consistent with Adams, since he was drafted by the packers. Quote , "I would have never drafted him." He's not lightning in a bottle. Regardless. If he helps the packers, good for the packers. If they over pay him. Good for Adams. There have been a lot of 1 year wonders in the history of the packers. Count on him and this team will lose. I hope you get the results from Adams to satisfy your opinion. For me I'll take the comp pick. I hate cap problems and over paid wonders. How's that for consistency.

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SpudRapids's picture

June 26, 2017 at 02:13 pm

The longer you wait the more expensive he becomes to sign... while you sit and "wait to see more" so does the rest of the league and his price tag goes up.

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x24's picture

June 23, 2017 at 09:13 am

I have this feeling that Cobb will not be on the roster when the season opens. Every year there is a cut down shocker, and I think this year it could be Cobb

At this point, we are stacked at WR. Lots of promising young talent, and if you are not getting better your are getting worse...

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stockholder's picture

June 23, 2017 at 09:28 am

I don't. MM stated he wants him in the offensive game plan more this year. Also with Hyde gone. Cobb will be in on more punt returns.

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dobber's picture

June 23, 2017 at 09:35 am

I think the only way Cobb doesn't make this team (apart from a trade...which won't happen) is if he gets stoned and drunk, holds up a liquor store, drives to a bar, and beats up half the female patrons...and someone gets video of the whole thing.

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x24's picture

June 23, 2017 at 11:17 am

I like Cobb, I really do, but last year was not his best. Consider the following; we brought in 2 tight ends, both of whom can play slot receiver. In Monty we have a RB/WR who can be used in all the gadget plays, and we have a stable full of young, hungry, fast talent. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Cobb wears a different uniform next year

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4zone's picture

June 25, 2017 at 09:30 am

Cobb is hands down our best kick returner. His value on STs is significantly higher than Janis's. We don't use him there much because he also has way more value at WR than Janis. If they were equal at WR, I'd still take Cobb and keep him as
a full time kick returner.

If I were MM and wanted to max out his impact this year. I'd get him back returning kicks again full time.

No way Cobb goes. Only real possibility is he might get injured in camp and goes on IR for the year, opening up a 1 year spot got one of the new guys.

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JerseyAl's picture

June 23, 2017 at 01:59 pm

I guess I'm the only Yancy fan here, huh? I think Rodgers will love having a guy he can take a little risk with and depend on him winning the ball, like he had with James Jones.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

June 25, 2017 at 08:51 am

I think a lot of people see in Yancy a guy with good size and not enough ball skills to translate to the pros. I saw him beating up on small or slower corners a lot in College and kept thinking to myself that he wouldn't have been able to make that play against an NFL secondary. Hopefully I am totally wrong, and in season or two this guy has leveled up to the pros.

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Hoyt Harper's picture

June 23, 2017 at 02:13 pm

Rogers held on to the football longer than any other QB in the NFL because NONE of our top WRs was creating separation at the line of scrimmage. While our new TEs will help this situation, I believe there will be a shakeup within the WR group this year. I project we keep 7 (again).

Locks - Nelson and Adams
Tentative lock: Cobb - he was our 4th best receiver last year. We can't afford to pay him $12 million If the Pack restructure his deal, he's worth keeping, if not I'd trade or cut him.
Janis - like so many other fans, I keep waiting for Janis to click with Rogers. His size, speed and strength are unique. I bet he sticks.
Davis - he's the deep threat the Packers need. He'll take playing time away from Allison and Cobb
Allison - he played with confidence but will be challenged to keep a spot. Of Yanncy, Dupre, McCaffrey, Crockett and Clark. I going with long shots, Crockett and Clark

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croatpackfan's picture

June 24, 2017 at 03:43 am

Jeff Janis the last elite player on Packers WR roster... ;-)

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TXCHEESE's picture

June 23, 2017 at 04:28 pm

The top three are obvious. I believe they will give Janis another year. Remember, it took Jordy 3 years to get it right. You can't coach size and speed and Janis has both. Davis is probably gone, unless he can become a slot receiver. IMO, he's too small for a boundry receiver. The rookies are an impressive group and should provide a fun training camp battle to follow. No way Cobb is let go as he is the only one on the roster to be able to emulate Montgomery's run/receiver package, plus he's a baller.

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TXCHEESE's picture

June 23, 2017 at 04:28 pm

The top three are obvious. I believe they will give Janis another year. Remember, it took Jordy 3 years to get it right. You can't coach size and speed and Janis has both. Davis is probably gone, unless he can become a slot receiver. IMO, he's too small for a boundry receiver. The rookies are an impressive group and should provide a fun training camp battle to follow. No way Cobb is let go as he is the only one on the roster to be able to emulate Montgomery's run/receiver package, plus he's a baller.

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PatrickGB's picture

June 23, 2017 at 09:15 pm

While they both have speed, Janis is better than Davis simply based on size. I cannot see Davis on an end around or getting off coverage as a gunner on kick returns. However, if Janis doesn't finally figure out the route tree that Aaron prefers then he too is gone. The last WR remaining standing is the one who shows smarts in preseason football and in practices. It may be one of the last draft picks or even McCraffery. Clark probably gets cut in TC.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 24, 2017 at 03:45 am

I think Einstein said that when something does not working (so there is no improvement) and you are repeating that with expectation it will work, it is pure....

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flackcatcher's picture

June 24, 2017 at 12:21 am

Nicely done Al. Only change I make is flipping Allison and Janis. As both you and DPF point out, Janis's special team play puts him in a completely different level than most of the group. And given how MM values ST play, Janis might be rated as a tier 1(blue chipper) for the team. It will be interesting to see how MM uses the group this year.

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