The Trade For Matthews Still Bugs Me
By Aaron Nagler on Jul 17, 2009 with 69 Comments
Yes, the old adage of needing to take three years to judge a draft is very, very true
I’ve taken three months.
Ted Thompson has made it abundantly clear, both in words and in actions, that he really likes his roster. He sees a lot more talent there than most observers, and when it comes to (most of) the starters, I would agree. When it comes to the backups, however, I start to worry, and it’s for that reason that the trade up for Clay Matthews still really, really bugs me.
By my estimation the Packers, coming off a 6-10 season that saw a lot of backup players get a lot of action, have stuck with several players that showed they simply can not get the job done when called upon. Now, could these players improve? Of course they could, and that is what Thompson is counting on. The problem I have with the trade for Matthews is that it robs the roster of what would have been an infusion of new talent to push some of those backups. Would the Packers have gotten another Greg Jennings-type player? Most likely not, but they could have found players to push the likes of Aaron Rouse and Charlie Peprah in the secondary or Michael Montgomery and Alfred Malone on the defensive line.
I could understand not needing to draft extra depth if Thompson were bringing in veteran players at these positions, but his M.O. of eschewing any player over the age of 30 in free agency makes the trading away of three draft picks for Matthews all the more irksome in my mind. Guys like Kevin Carter and Vonnie Holiday can play and can be had for dirt cheap at this point. Instead, the Packers keep Michael Montgomery around? Seriously? It makes no sense, especially when you go back and watch Montgomery’s snaps from last season. He is, in a word, terrible.
But no, Thompson decided, for whatever reason, that an infusion of mid-level talent was not necessary. I understand that the Anthony Smith signing is meant to add depth to what was clearly a problematic area at safety, but is that really all that’s needed to guard against having Rouse or Peprah on the field again? Simply put – they can not play. Why not bring in some guys who might be able to?
Obviously, the only way the trade ends up being judged a ‘win’ for Thompson is if Matthews turns out to be a player. I know most observers assume he has to win the starting job this year, but I don’t see that. If the kid only brings a dynamic presence to the special teams units this year, he’s already an upgrade over most of the guys on those units last season. And I think Thompson and company are more than willing to let Matthews stay on the bench behind Jeremy Thompson, if Thompson is judged to be starter material during camp.
I don’t mind Matthews, I just question giving up so much to get him. Normally, that kind of currency isn’t spent, especially by this particular General Manager, unless the player is something special. Here’s hoping…
Filed Under: Clay Matthews • Ted Thompson
And I am still with Asshalo. The Nelson pick itself wasn’t a “bad” one, per se, it was more with selecting so much offense when the offense was pretty much set. Ironically, the OLine was the part of the offense that needed fresh recruits the most and the only reinforcement he took was Sitton.
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Not to harp on this, but look at teams like the Giants, Steelers, and Pats. They always seem to be able to identify players that they can bring in to fit into their system. But as I type this, I am thinking of how the Giants draft DEs like they are going out of style, which is a perfect analogy to why the Packers selected Jordy. The Giants D is built around their rush and rotate DEs accordingly, same way the Packers offense involves a lot of multiple WR sets. Ok, fine… Aaron wins this round. But I still say that he did a poor job addressing the defensive depth in the ’08 draft.
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Having come back to this issue a few times today, I think it is safe to say that the key player in the ’08 draft was Brohm. He’s the one who could potentially screw this draft up for TT. Aaron’s argument for taking Nelson makes sense, so you can understand that selection. I really like Finley and think he will be a dangerous weapon on offense as soon as this season, so I actually like taking the TE in rd 3. Can’t argue with Lee and Sitton. As for Swain and Flynn, maybe you could have gone defense there, but at such a late spot in the draft, maybe you can try to catch lightning in a bottle.
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Now, turning to Brohm. I really liked him in college and could understand why TT scooped him up in the 2nd round. I’m sure the Pack were VERY confident in AR, otherwise they wouldn’t have taken such a hard stance against Favre, eventually trading him to NY. I think the idea was to grab Brohm, once thought to be one of the most NFL ready QBs in college, let him back-up AR for a few seasons, then deal him ala Matt Hasselbeck for a decent pick. IMO, Matt Flynn is the guy who was picked to be AR’s Doug Pederson/Craig Nall. And you know what? I can’t fault TT. Brohm was a damn good QB in college and who could have known he would struggle so mightily in the pros. However, like Aaron, I am not willing to give up on him just yet.
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Now, with ALL that said, this team was coming off hosting a NFCC game. Was it wise to neglect a defense in obvious need of reinforcements. I mean, Aaron even posted his reservations about the defense at the time. The obvious counter is that TT anticipated a rough ’08 due to a harder schedule and a QB who, despite their being very confident in him, was still taking his first turn around the league. So perhaps TT’s ’08 draft will be looked at as brilliant forward thinking. Ok, now I am arguing with myself. What does everyone else think?
[...] Now that Nagler is upset that I called his link obligatory and then linked to a video instead of a well written post, it is because I was saving my accolades for number six. A new series of Cheeseheadnation will [...]
Keith, you can argue about Kampman’s physical skills, but you can’t argue about his production.
Sacks since 2005:
Ware – 53,5
Allen – 48,5
Kampman – 43,5
Abraham – 41
Peppers – 40,5
Taylor – 40
Mathis – 39,5
Merriman – 39,5
Burgess – 38,5
Osi – 33,5
Freeney – 30,5
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And about not doubling him, are you kidding me? Except for KGB in what? 2 good years? We only had Kampman in there. There was noone other than him to double. The LBs aren’t good at blitzing, neither are the DTs. He’s doubled all the time. And even then he produces. He don’t get hurt as others, and is a much better run stopper than others…
And I did not care for the 2008 draft AT ALL. I support TT, but we had much more pressing needs. If he had picked a OL or a DL sooner in that draft we wouldn’t be discussing if the packers could reach the playoffs, as much as if the packers would win it all. Getting Brohm was a bad move. It could pay dividends 5 years from now, but who wants to wait 5 years??? Finley has great physical tools, but has zero awareness of the game. Can’t catch a ball over the shoulder. Jordy will never be a #1 receiver. Can be a terrific #2. The other picks were fine, TT’s best at the second day. But hey, noone gets it right all the time, and there’s no use crying over spilled milk…
Ah yes, the great ‘Kampman is double teamed all the time’ myth. The tape simply does not support this…
Thank you Aaron.
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Re: Finley – just have to defend my man Finely. Sigmund Bloom of Draftguys.com raved about his catch radius on The Audible podcast with Cecil Lammey. Don’t judge Finley off of one NFL season.
Saying he can’t catch an over the shoulder pass doesn’t mean he won’t be good. It means he’s still a kid and shouldn’t have left college so early. And he’s still a kid, btw. Don’t expect a big improvement from him in this season. I doubt he’ll be a reliable receiver now that he’s one year older, after being a liability last year.
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And Aaron’s opinion on Kampman is irrelevant. He hates him. Even though he says otherwise. http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/k.....advertised
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And I’m sorry, Aaron. It’s just a coincidence that everytime you make a very well-written post I disagree with you and nagg you.
PackerRS, not really sure how you can say Aaron hates Kampman. Plus, I can play this silly game too: you’re opinion is irrelevant because there is clearly a bromance brewing between you and Kampman.
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It’s also convenient to set arbitrary timelines and say: “Hey! Look at what Kampman has done during this timeframe! He is so much more awesomer than these other Pro Bowl players.” Well, that’s not how I roll. I actually like to dig deeper. Football is not baseball. Stats are nice, but stats do not tell the entire story in this glorious sport.
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In both of Kampman’s double digit sack seasons (’06 & ’07) he had the benefit of having Jenkins and KGB lining up at the other DE position. I would also like to note the absurdity of this comment: “And about not doubling him, are you kidding me? Except for KGB in what? 2 good years? We only had Kampman in there. There was noone other than him to double.” Uh, yeah, those 2 good years amount to half the years in your arbitrary Kampman sack timeframe! I would also submit that KGB was a threat for three of those good years – ’05, ’06, & ’07.
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But what happened last year with KGB released and Jenkins injured? He had 4 sacks in the first 5 games with Jenkins healthy. He had 5.5 in the remaining ELEVEN (11) games. Now, Aaron has said that the tape does not support the notion that Kampman gets doubled, however, I would even give you the benefit of the doubt and agree that logic would dictate that Kampman would be the dude getting doubled on a defense depleted by injuries. Well, my question is this: what happened to his production in the latter 2/3′s of the season?
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Ultimately, you’re Don Quixote trying to vanquish a windmill here. No one is saying Kampman sucks because he doesn’t suck. He is a VERY good football player and has been VERY productive for the Pack. The point is that he is not a gamebreaker; thus, he is not a player that I would be build a defense around or worry about appeasing by not changing the scheme. He is not LT, he is not Reggie White, he is not Michael Strahan, he is not Shawne Merriman. Last year showed you that he is not capable of carrying a defense. And there is nothing wrong with that and nothing for Kampman to be ashamed of. Again, he is a very very good player. No one is disputing this. Let’s just not pretend that he is a gamebreaker in the Merriman, Ware, or Peppers mold.
Last few points on Kampman:
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1) We may be trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. Obviously we have no idea how this will turn out, but I think there was a strong argument for dealing him to a 4-3 team and acquiring some extra picks to help stockpile players that will fit the new defense.
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2) He is entering the last year of his contract and will probably command a decent chunk of change on the open market next offseason. I seriously doubt the Pack resigns him unless he really excels at OLB. However, the scarier question is what if he is terrible? What happens if he gets benched? Will Kampman be a team player in a year that he is playing for a new contract? A situation like this could get real ugly real fast. I expect this team to be challenging for the division; the last thing they need is the distraction of Aaron Kampman whining about both his new position and his contract status.
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Obviously these are both hypotheticals and he could very well pull a Jason Taylor. But, as you have done a good job of pointing out, Kampman is a very good football player and I am sure that there would have been more than a few 4-3 teams out there who would have offered a pick or two to secure his services.
Ok, one more comment, but re: Finley. Saying he can’t catch an over-the-shoulder catch is flat out wrong if you’re basing your opinion on that one play where he stupidly ran his mouth to the media following the game. Like I said, he is said to have a large catch radius and is noted for his athleticism. I might be wrong, but I think this means he could make an over-the-shoulder catch. Further, he made a pretty darn impressive TD catch in week 17. I’m not expecting Pro Bowl or anything this year, but I do expect a nice step forward.
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Basically, if you think he left college too early then say so. Don’t say “he can’t make an over the shoulder catch.” I would also like to add that I’m glad he left early. His immaturity and leaving early probably caused him to fall to the 3rd round, where the Pack scooped him up. With his talent, if/when he matures he will be a solid TE.
Packerrs – “First, I’m going to begin by saying that I’m an Aaron Kampman fan. He’s a great story, a great man, and a great football player.”
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I wrote that because I hate him?
Okay. Like I said, Kampman isn’t athletically gifted as others. But saying he was only good with KGB and Jenkins? What about the Williams brothers in MN? What about Greg Ellis? What about Shawn Phillips? What about Kris Jenkins in Carolina? He faced the same circumstances than other pass rushers in the last 4 years (4 years is a good spam because it’s the year DeMarcus Ware started playing. And it’s a long enough time spam), and he has the production to show. Saying he doens’t perform late is BS. The game is composed of 4 quarters, not just the final one. If YOU think he’s not that good then that’s an opinion, but you need to prove it better. My opinion is that he’s the 3rd best sacker in the league, and I base that with stats. Stats from 4 whole seasons, not quarters, or formations, or excluding games that he was injured, because he was never injured. Unlike Merriman, Osi, Freeney… And yeah, I have a bromance with him. He doesn’t know, but we do.
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About Finley, I’ve seen him miss an over the shoulder catch. A VERY IMPORTANT ONE. I haven’t seen him catch one. Like I said, that doesn’t mean he can’t learn how to catch one. It has nothing to do with hands. It has to do with experience.
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FYI, I’m one of those who didn’t want Gonzo (not for the price). Who didn’t want Pettitgrew, because I thouhgt Finley would develop into a STUD. Still think that. But he needs to prove he’s ready, not just twitt so. Haven’t seen one highlight of him in OTAs…
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Aaron, I think we had that discussion. Saying that you like him so that you can trash him is just a way to soften the blow. But I think deep down you know how good he really is… BTW, please don’t go making a post about Jennings flaws and how he’s not a premier receiver
And I don’t think I can tell you how to run your business, neither I think I could do a better job… If I didn’t like your opinions or your blog, I wouldn’t keep coming back to read it, would I?
Umm, wow. I think I need to break this post down the same way Jaworski breaks down film:
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Okay. Like I said, Kampman isn’t athletically gifted as others. But saying he was only good with KGB and Jenkins? What about the Williams brothers in MN? What about Greg Ellis? What about Shawn Phillips? What about Kris Jenkins in Carolina?
What about them? I am trying to figure out what your counter argument is here.
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Saying he doens’t perform late is BS.
I never said such a thing.
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The game is composed of 4 quarters, not just the final one. If YOU think he’s not that good then that’s an opinion, but you need to prove it better. My opinion is that he’s the 3rd best sacker in the league, and I base that with stats. Stats from 4 whole seasons, not quarters, or formations, or excluding games that he was injured, because he was never injured.
For some reason you think I based my analysis on only parts of games. Go back and re-read my posts, I never discuss Kampman’s production in parts of games; rather, I broke down his production over the course of the ’08 season and tried to provide an explanation for why his production fell off. As for me having to do a better job proving my opinion, allow me to break down how this discussion has gone to help you follow it better:
1) I make a statement that Kampman is a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL player and that I would not build a defense around him because he is not that caliber of player.
2) You counter by saying he is very productive, citing his sacks over the last 4 years, and claim that he has performed this well despite being consistently double-teamed.
3) Aaron comments that your statement about Kampman being consistently doubled is a common fan myth.
Now, based on this discussion of Kampman’s production and whether or not he actually gets doubled, I went back and looked at his game logs. Kampman was most productive when both Jenkins and KGB were playing alongside him (’06 & ’07). I also pointed out that he had 4 sacks in the first 5 games of the 2008 season while Jenkins was healthy. Then, once Jenkins went out for the year, he only had 5.5 sacks in the remaining 11 games. So what was my point? There was a dispute as to whether Kampman gets doubled consistently. However, I conceded that with Jenkins out teams most likely did double Kampman. With this assumption established, we saw Kampman’s production decrease once he began to get double teamed. This basically kills your argument that Kampman is consistently doubled because if Kampman has always been consistently doubled then you would not have seen such a stark drop in his production once Jenkins left the lineup.
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I would like to make a quick comment on stats. In the game of football stats can be misleading. Brett Favre owns virtually every single passing record that exists. Does this mean he is the greatest QB of all time? No, it does not, and that is coming from someone who worships Brett Favre. There are just too many variables in football. Sure, stats are a quick and dirty way of compuling a quick list of the best pass rushers around, but you really need context to help shed some more light on the counting stats. Further, you say that I didn’t use stats to prove my point, but I actually did… I just didn’t spell it out for you. In the first five games of the season in ’08 Kampman was sacking QBs at a .9 sacks per game rate… almost a sack per game. But for the rest of the year that average dropped to .5 sacks per game. Now, this is still a good rate, but bear in mind, that 4.5 of those 5.5 sacks in the latter 11 games came in two games. So there were TEN (10) games where Kampman failed to register a sack. I’m sorry, but that does not indicate a dominant player to me. So there are some stats for you to go along with some context. For the record, Peppers went sackless in 6 games… Ware: TWO(2)!
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Like I said above, in the end, this is kind of a pointless discussion because I’ve never said that Kampman sucks, just that he isn’t as good as some of my fellow Packer fans think he is. He has been a joy to root for and is by all accounts a very solid all around DE. I am glad he has been a Packer these last few seasons, but just because he is a Packer doesn’t mean I am required to hype him up to be more than what he is. Again, what he is is pretty darn good anyway.
About Finley, I’ve seen him miss an over the shoulder catch. A VERY IMPORTANT ONE. I haven’t seen him catch one. Like I said, that doesn’t mean he can’t learn how to catch one. It has nothing to do with hands. It has to do with experience.
Wow dude, really? You’re going to say he can’t make an over the shoulder catch because you saw him miss ONE!? Seriously!? Come on now.
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But he needs to prove he’s ready, not just twitt so. Haven’t seen one highlight of him in OTAs…
Again, COME ON. Don’t just fall back on BS ad hominem talking points. You’re better than that. Of course he has to prove himself. No one in this thread anointed him the second coming, no less the starter.
Saying that you like him so that you can trash him is just a way to soften the blow. But I think deep down you know how good he really is.
I know this was directed at Aaron, but, speaking for myself… yes, I do know how good he really is and have noted as much. Critiquing a player does not equal trashing him. I’ve noted how many 4-3 teams would have desired him had he gone on the block and that I would have expected a nice package of picks for him. It’s not exactly trashing a player when you expect to land a bounty for him in a trade.
First off, the formation point was for Alex, who implied he only sacked the qb when we were in nickel…
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If Kampman was sackless for so many games, how come he has more sacks than everyone in the league for the past 4 years except Ware and Allen? Sacks per game is not a good indication IMO, because players miss games! Yes, some pass rushers have more sacks per game than him, but they get more injuries than him! So in the end, he is more productive than them.
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The BF comparison can’t be made. Brent played more seasons than a lot of QBs. From 93 to 99 he was the best QB in the league.
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And you’re both right. He’s not doubled ALL THE TIME. I used that because you said he doesn’t receive the kind of attention that others do, and THAT’S BS!
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You said that when KGB and Jenkins weren’t there, his production dropped. Of course, every DE suffers the same. Burgess was once the sack leader, when Warren Sapp was still there and were a force to be reckon. If the Cowboys didn’t have Greg Ellis playing so well for all those years, would DeMarcus Ware have the same numbers?
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I don’t know how he’ll fare next season, playing OLB for the first time. If I had to guess, I’d say he will thrive, but that’s just an expectation based on Dom Capers, Kevin Greene, his ability and other DEs excelling at the transition.
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The whole discussion is I say he’s elite, you guys say he’s very good. Of course noone would say he’s bad, noone’s that crazy. I try to show that, in the end, he was better in a more consistant basis. Maybe he’s not as “clutch” as others (and even then I disagree), but he’s better overall.
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And about Finley, I’M NOT BETTER THAN THAT! I saw him miss a very important play. I didn’t see him make ANY important one. So he’s bad IMO. But then again, it seems like you’re not arguing with me, and rather with Sigmund Bloom. I haven’t seen him or anyone talk about Finley’s catch radius, actually, I haven’t even heard that term! And I’m not talking about him saying postgame nonsenses. What I was reffering to was him at twitter acting like he was a playmaker, which he’s not yet. (So I was not arguing with you, but rather with him…)
Here’s a tip about stats: rate stats are generally better indicators of a player’s abilities than counting stats. This is true for most sports. So if you’re basing your argument over total production then yes, Kampman is more productive. However, looking at rate stats like sacks per game are a better indication of a player’s dominance or how elite he is. And yes, sacks per game is a better way of determining who is a better player BECAUSE players miss games. Don’t confuse elite with consistent.
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We’ll have to just stop arguing over the double team issue. Aaron watches more Packer tape than anyone I know, so I’m going to take his word for it over yours, no offense.
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As for Ware, you know my answer would be yes because Ware is the one defenses account for, not Ellis. This goes back to the issue of double teaming, which neither of us have actual proof or facts to back up our assertions, so let’s move on.
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I will agree that he is more consistent than most of the players discussed, but again, do not confuse consistence with dominance. He is not a game changing player. Guys like Ware can take over a game and completely disrupt an offense. Kampman is not that kind of player. I’m sorry, but a guy who doesn’t register a sack in 10 out of 16 games just isn’t an elite player.
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Back to Finley: I don’t mean to sound crass, but it’s stupid to form an opinion on a player because of one play, good or bad. It’s also not advised to form an opinion based on one season, especially his rookie season. I bring up Bloom because I respect his opinion on football prospects immensely, and while he doesn’t think Finley will become the next Tony Gonzalez, he does like Finley’s skills and thinks he can be a starter in this league. And to be honest, I like his confidence on Twitter. It’s important to keep a positive mental outlook. There is no reason to be down on yourself after struggling as a rookie in the NFL in a complex offense.
Ok, I can’t help myself.
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And you’re both right. He’s not doubled ALL THE TIME. I used that because you said he doesn’t receive the kind of attention that others do, and THAT’S BS!
Prove it. I know this is kind of a copout by me because Aaron has already weighed in on this and I am piggy-backing off of his research, but if you feel so strongly about this then you should be able to provide evidence to support your claim.
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Come to think of it, I did provide evidence. With Jenkins out of the lineup and KGB released, Kampman was pretty much the only threat on the DLine last season. I would imagine that he saw more double teams from game 6 onward. From that point forward his production slipped considerably. My question to you is this: If he has consistently received the bulk of the attention of opposing offenses, why did he struggle so much once Jenkins went down? Shouldn’t he be used to dealing with that extra attention?
First off: I don’t take offense for saying Aaron watches more games or know more about fundamentals than me. If I knew that much I would be writing a blog or working for a newspaper, eh? (Of course, there are people that know a lot and don’t do it because they don’t have the interest, nor the time. As you can see from my regular comments, not the case)
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Last about Finley. It is what it is. Until proven otherwise, he’s not a good TE. All he has is potential. He needs to live up. And if it’s stupid to form an opinion about him in one season, where are you getting your opinion from anyway??? And let’s not try to make me into a Finley hater (wow, Finley hater…), I’ve said that I supported him when people wanted to bring other guys. Unlike others who try to trade our best players…
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My answer to that question is: He shouldn’t. He struggled because he can’t overcome consistent double team. Neither can Peppers, or Osi, or Freeney, or Merrimann… Maybe Ware can. And Allen can. He delivered when he was at KC…
But the thing is, there’s no Reggie White in the league. There’s no Deacon Jones. There’s not even a Strahan. The closest to Strahan are Ware and Allen. Merriman would be very good, if he hadn’t spent an entire year injuried, thus costing his team any chance they had in the SB run. And now that he’s back, LT is in the downhill… (You see what I mean when I say a player that can’t stay healthy is no good?)
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This whole discussion is getting way too long, and probably annoying to most people but it seems that neither of us can let it go. At least you recognize that he’s one of the most productive guys out there. You know what? I’m going to agree with you. He can’t take a game for himself. But I still prefer a guy that’s an B+ all the time than a A+ D guy, and would kill me to have this guy traded to another team.