Packers Offense Needs to Do Its Defense a Favor: Convert Third Downs

The Packers defense has been on the field too much this season. By keeping the chains moving, the Packers offense could do them a solid.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers by Jeff Hanisch—USA TODAY Sports.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers by Jeff Hanisch—USA TODAY Sports.

A topic of debate on Thursday’s Green and Gold Today on ESPNMilwaukee revolved around how worried fans were about playing the Miami Dolphins. While facing an uncommon opponent coached by a former offensive coordinator was concerning, what appeared to be an even bigger concern was the Miami weather.

How will the Packers react from practicing this week 50 degree weather to playing in Miami where it is expected to be hot and humid?

While at first, it may seem like a complete non-story. If you’re a good team, you’re a good team in 80 degree weather, in 50 degree weather, in 30 degree weather. We’re not talking extremes here; we’re talking average October weather for Miami.

The key to making the weather change a real non-factor is making sure the team is well hydrated and rested. The Packers defense has not been well rested in any game thus far this season.

The Packers offense thrives on being fast and scoring with ease, and it has been refreshing to see the quick-play ability return to the field in the games versus the Bears and the Vikings, but the defense is still performing at a Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde level.

Looking back at the loss in Detroit, the Packers defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes. As the game wore on, the defense wore down.

The Packers offense needs to do the defense more favors. Thru five games, the Packers offense has not “won” the time-of-possession battle in any game. This doesn’t mean scrapping the highly effective quick-scoring drives that the Packers used to put the Vikings away early; it means converting more third downs, to keep long drives going.

Against the Seahawks, the Jets, and the Bears, the Packers converted 50 percent of their third downs. The Packers did worse against the Lions and Bears, converting only 40 percent and 36 percent respectively.

Based on the first five games of the season, if the Packers want to have better success on third down they need to have better success on first and second downs.  When the Packers have faced four or less yards on third down, they have converted 12 out of 19 times. When the Packers face a longer third down, between five and 10 yards, they convert 10 out of 25 times. And when a facing a third and longer than 10, the Packers have converted only two out of 10 times.

If the Packers can’t get going on first or second down and are stuck with a third down longer than four yards, they have only a 34 percent chance of converting, compared to their chance of converting a third and short of 63 percent.

The Packers also have to do a better job of avoiding sacks on third down. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked six times on third down. He has been sacked 12 times all season.

The Packers almost always line up in shotgun formation on third down and they almost always throw the ball.

In all five games this season, the Packers have lined up under center on average of less than two times a game on third down. Not including quarterback scrambles, the Packers have run only five times on third down. So far this season they have faced 55 third downs (counting plays not negated by penalties).

Of course, when facing a majority of third and longs, and when your quarterback is Aaron Rodgers, throwing makes sense. Which is why the Packers need to do better on first and second down. It will allow them a larger variety of plays to choose from and help contribute to a better conversion rate.

This Sunday’s game against Miami has all the makings of a trap game. An uncommon opponent, facing a former coach, different weather conditions, playing against a recently weak team. The Packers can’t change the weather, but they can set their team up for more success.

They need to do better on third down. They need to set up manageable third downs, increase the variety of play calls and looks they show on third down, and protect the quarterback better. 

Jayme Snowden is a writer and moderator at CheeseheadTV and co-host of CheeseheadRadio, part of the Packers Talk Radio Network at PackersTalk.com. You can contact her via Twitter at @jaymelee1 or via email at [email protected]

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Comments (55)

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Lphill's picture

October 09, 2014 at 05:14 pm

I cant believe how worried everyone is about the Dolphins, yes they beat the Raiders but before that game they were looking at a QB change and the fans wanted Philbin out, The Dolphins should be afraid of the Packers, forget the weather, like the man said, RELAX!

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TommyG's picture

October 09, 2014 at 06:00 pm

and before they beat the Raiders they also beat the Pats. No reason to be afraid, but our Packers must be sharp and not consider this a gimme.

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Nerd's picture

October 09, 2014 at 09:41 pm

Let's face it, this is a finesse "dome" team.

Keep them hydrated and they'll be fine in good weather. It's the snow and wind I'm worried about.

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Evan's picture

October 09, 2014 at 06:42 pm

They just beat Jay Cutler, who, according to you, is better than Rodgers this year. Does that count?

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Evan's picture

October 09, 2014 at 08:53 pm

Not twisting anything. You said Cutler was the "better QB"..."this year." Full stop. Not "playing better so far" or "heading into the game."

Here ya go:

"In how many of those games did the Bears have the better quarterback... like they do this year?"

So, yeah, does the Bears game count?

haha...bonus fun:

"This year's offense is being run by the new, post-injury version of Aaron Rodgers... the one who's more like Andy Dalton."

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 06:19 am

at least they are better than your Vikings...

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zeke's picture

October 10, 2014 at 07:17 am

"Ask yourself - when was the last time the Packers beat a contending-level team?"

You yourself said the Bears were SB contenders, so I guess the answer is "two weeks ago."

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

October 09, 2014 at 07:36 pm

Let's change Cow's name to Rip Van Winkle. PLEASE: nobody wake him up!

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murphy's picture

October 10, 2014 at 12:19 am

Why does your definition of "quality D/QB" change every week?

Why?

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 06:20 am

because he needs something to do now. His boy AP s out, and he is somewhat overcome with grief that his beloved Vikings suck again. As usual.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 10:08 am

come on, for years now we've had to hear how great AP is and how good the Vikings draft. You also said that you'd take the vikings d ("young, fast, plenty of playmakers") over the Packers d any day. Well, the Packers O just took those clowns out to the woodshed and hung 35 on them.
Plus, does that sound like a Packers fan:
"Will the Vikings offense be able to run the ball at will vs the horrendous Packer defense? Yep.
Will the Vikings be able to dominate the time of possession if they avoid turning the ball over? Yep.
Will the Vikings defense be able eliminate the Packers' running game? Yep (everyone has... even the crappy Bears D neutered GB's run game).
Will Dom's unprepared defense become discombobulated and helplessly lost as least twice during the game when confronted by an imaginative/creative play (most likely involving Patterson as a runner)? Yep.
Will Slocum's ST group give up at least one huge return? Yep.
Will the entire game rest in the hands of Aaron Rodgers (again) and the passing game... all while playing in inclement weather? Yep.
"
"The Packers D is garbage"

And as a reminder: you said the Packers would start 0-4, finish 8-8, and also that they wouldn't hold a team under 18 all season. 2 of those fabulous predictions were already proven wrong, your only shot is 8-8 now. You also said last year they'd win 6 - 8 games, and when Bulaga went on IR that'd cost them 2 games, and then said so that means they'd win 6 - 8. Great logic!

Why don't you do us all a favor and just post on the Vikings board? I mean, football knowledge wise you'd fit right in.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 12:58 pm

last year you said 6 - 8 wins at the beginning of training camp. then you said that the loss of Bulaga would mean 2 less wins, so your prediction changed to 4 - 6 wins, and that didn't even account for the loss of #12. Magically after they had 6 wins you went back to 6 - 8 wins again...
Continue to smoke what you are smoking...
And yes, in the past you always talked up AP and what he would do to the Packers D. Like a broken record...

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zeke's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:58 am

"Be honest."

That's hilarious. You can't even acknowledge all of the stupid, demonstrably false shit you've put out when it's presented to you, but everyone else should "be honest."

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RCPackerFan's picture

October 10, 2014 at 11:18 am

Ok, i'm not going to get into everything here.

But you said last year the Packers would be 6-10 with Rodgers. Packers were 8-7-1 with Rodgers missing half the season. I don't see how you consider yourself right with that prediction.

Also, Hayward was the 3rd best rated CB in the League his rookie year. Not the 3rd best rated rookie. The 3rd best rated CB in the entire league... Last year he was injured. From what i heard basically tearing his hamstring.
He has been off to a slower start this year, but lets see how he does after the season is over.

The last thing I'm commenting on is injuries. You said that Franklin, Abbrederis was to small fragile? When a player sustains a career ending Neck injury i don't think you can call them frajile. And same with ACL injuries.

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zeke's picture

October 10, 2014 at 12:00 pm

My reply isn't code for anything. Your code for "6-10" is "8-7 and a playoff berth." "There isn't a team in the league that GB can hold under 20 points" is code for "other than the teams they've held under 20 points." "Cutler and Dalton are better than Rodgers" is code for ... I have no idea what that is code for. "I've never posted anything I didn't believe" is code for "except when I wrote that I post negative stuff because of the reaction it gets." "I predict 0-4" is code for "unless they go 2-2."

But yes, you were right about Jonathan Franklin. Good for you.

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Evan's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:14 pm

I think they could beat any of those teams and lose to any of those teams.

If forced to pick...

Bengals - win
Colts - win
Broncos - lose
Chargers - really no idea, I know they're playing well, but I have no sense of them
Eagles - win
Saints - win at home, lose in NO
49'ers - win at home, lose in SF
Seahawks - lose

I am curious though - if those are the 8 "contending" teams (and, really, the Saints?) and the Packers, at 8-8, aren't one...who do you have coming out of the North? Or do you see 8-8 winning the North?

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Evan's picture

October 10, 2014 at 02:49 pm

Oh brother...

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jmac34's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:14 pm

The Saints have been awful this year.

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Evan's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:16 pm

Exactly. The Falcons/Panthers are both better. And I'm not sure the Cowboys and Giants aren't better than the Eagles.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:24 pm

that's alright. That list of "contending teams" will change for cow throughout the season, depending on who is still contending in December... Whoever plays best and reaches the playoffs, suddenly everything the Packers did and do was and is wrong, and they should've done exactly what {...insert team name still contending in December...} always did.
Right now it's the Seahawks. Once they have some contracts expiring and have to pay more for their stars and won't play as well then it will be another team. In the AFC it's the Broncos, but if they won't make it this year and their aging stars slow down, then it will be someone else. Maybe the Colts. Maybe a surprise team. But by then cow will sing the praises of whoever is GM of that team and whatever Ted does will be garbage.

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zeke's picture

October 11, 2014 at 05:41 am

They could beat or lose to any of those teams. A better question (IMO) is if they played each team 10 times on a neutral field, how would they fare? I can't watch the games and am only able to keep up on what's happening by reading JS, ESPN, etc., and can occasionally get highlights if the internet stays up long enough, so what I think doesn't much matter. My guess is that they'd likely lose 8-9 times to Seattle and 6-7 to SF. I'd have them break even (at least) with PHI, NO, and don't have much of a clue about the others. But whether I agree or disagree with you (or anyone else) doesn't make you right or wrong, as the world doesn't work that way. Thank dog.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:07 pm

alright - you are willing to go on record that those are the 4 AFC teams and the 4 NFC teams for the divisional rounds of the playoffs? As those are the "contending teams"?
FWIW, the Packers would beat Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Eagles, and Saints. I also think they'd win against the 49ers if the D has an average day, but lose if the D has a bad day.

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lucky953's picture

October 09, 2014 at 11:06 pm

You guys may not like the messenger but the message is painfully true. It reminds me of the early 90s when they couldn't get past the 'boys and the niners. This feels the same. However, we are staying pretty healthy and we are getting better. The Packers have to prove they can beat contending teams. I think they'll be there by playoff time. The run defense needs to be more consistent and we, as Jayme says, need to sustain drives on 3rd down.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

October 09, 2014 at 11:27 pm

GB in Las Vegas is now 2ond @ 5-1 behind Seattle @ 11-5 to win the NFC. Las Vegas currently has them 3rd @ 10-1 to win the SB, behind Seattle @ 9-2, & Denver @ 5-1.

GB IS A 3, 3 1/2 PT Favorite at Miami. I don't like it. GB -2 1st half. Seems like a gift. Hope I'm wrong. Las Vegas however has GB rated pretty high considering. Miami beat us up here last time around, same scenario. LVT

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:42 am

Bait taken. The troll has been fed.

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HankScorpio's picture

October 10, 2014 at 10:43 am

The message is not really true at all. What the Packers need to do in order to win a championship is a) make the playoffs and b) win 3 or 4 in a row once in the playoffs.

Whether or not the Packers pass some in-season checklist of accomplishment is irrelevant. There is no such requirement to bring home a Lombardi--whether real or imagined. You can back into the 6 seed and still win it all...as has been proven.

It's executing in the passing game at playoff time that decides championships. I like the composition of this version of the Packers to make plays in the passing game. They have plenty of pass rushers. Their CB group doesn't take a backseat to many. Their Safety play seems to be getting straightened out. On offense, A Rod is in the team picture for "best in the business" and, if healthy, their o-line is solid. That's plenty enough to be dangerous come playoff time.

The only thing that matters in the regular season is whether they pile up enough wins to make the playoffs and are left with enough playmakers in the passing game.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:29 pm

You couldn't be more right, Hank. After all, what does it help to go 16-0 and rack up 1000s of yards and then lose in the playoffs? Maybe the injury bug will not hit the Packers as hard this year, but maybe it will hit one of the other teams that are good at the moment. Nobody remembers a couple of years from now what a team did in September and October. All that matters is who'll make the playoffs and win the whole thing in February.

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4thand1's picture

October 10, 2014 at 07:44 pm

Cow doesn't understand the salary cap era, simple. Seachickens are an anomaly. They have a QB who they took in the 3rd round who could end up being the league MVP. Can you say 20+ million next year? Plus other young players who'll demand tons of money. They could very well run the table and be done for years after this year. Denver sold the farm on FA and Manning, the clock is running out for them. The Packers have core stars and are in contention every year,TT genius. cow sucks. So the Bronco's made it to the SB last year, they should have stayed home. He doesn't like the fact that all the experts giving GB a shot and he's dead wrong as usual.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 09, 2014 at 09:17 pm

Good to see everyone getting their edge back after the blowout.

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Nerd's picture

October 09, 2014 at 09:40 pm

These guys are in love with the gimmicky stat whoring Chip Kelly offense. I'd much rather they down to fundamentals.

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NewNikeShoes's picture

October 09, 2014 at 10:23 pm

actually, chip kelly's offense is trash since lazor left
just saying

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aj's picture

October 10, 2014 at 11:49 am

Kelly's offense has sucked since his qb this year has sucked. Foles has missed plenty of throws this year. If the players don't execute who cares what play is called?

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Amanofthenorth's picture

October 10, 2014 at 04:54 am

I can stomach third down sacks. Seems like before Lacy Rodgers would get sacked on first down a lot. That was tough to stomach. Still is.

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MarkinMadison's picture

October 10, 2014 at 06:55 am

This is a Dolphins team that looks to be getting back six starters this week, including Knowshon Moreno and Mike Pouncey. They also have gotten an unexpected boost to their LB corps this year from second year player Jelani Jenkins. Kind of like Morgan Burnett busting out last week now that he's got a decent running mate, Jenkins is making others better. Miami's front seven may be good enough to give the Packers problems, especially, if there is any injury or fatigue for the big fellas.

A front seven playing well and a good running back is like Kryptonite for the 2014 Packers. I'm still looking forward to a COW-free CheeseheadTV when they best 8-8 and get into the playoffs, but as AN says, to go 11-5 the Packers are going to have to lose three more games. This could be one of them.

Packers 24-21

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:39 pm

There's a very distinct difference - saying nice things about an opponent but still believing in the Packers and picking them to win the game show that there is a strong level of support . But be honest: Before the season, or even after the first few games, have you said anything positive about the Packers this year? Nobody can tell me they are a fan of a team and not find positive things to say about the play, their players, and/or their coaches, as far as football is concerned. But all we hear from you is "D is garbage, we have no TE, McCarthy can't call good plays, even Rodgers is playing worse than Cutler and Dalton, etc". I am surprised you even think they can win 8 games, given that you have absolutely nothing positive to say about the team.
and be honest about another thing: You probably celebrated when the Packers lost the first game in Seattle, right? After all, you were right about it, so there was reason to celebrate.

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MarkinMadison's picture

October 10, 2014 at 02:13 pm

"8-8's looking pretty tight, isn't it?"

No, not really. The Packers have come through the toughest stretch of their schedule at 3-2, after facing three division opponents in 12 days and the Seahawks to start the season. I think they win 8 out of the remaining 11 games because this is the NFL and the Packers are not perfect. They are capable of winning every single game that remains on the schedule.

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RCPackerFan's picture

October 10, 2014 at 06:56 am

My biggest pet peeve with this offense is how they don't convert manageable 3rd downs enough. Rodgers is known to take his shots on 3rd down. While sometimes it does equal a big play, i just want to get the first down.

Big plays are nice, but so are long, time consuming drives that just wear down defenses.

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MarkinMadison's picture

October 10, 2014 at 07:04 am

There's a lot of truth to what you are saying. Additionally, I think this year it has had more to do with him only trusting one or two targets than anything else. The first few games it felt like it was the Jordy show. This offense didn't start to click this year until they started to spread the ball around. Hopefully that trend continues. If Davante Adams can have his break-out game this week the Packers will be looking good.

The OL and DL are just so damn thin right now...

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RCPackerFan's picture

October 10, 2014 at 07:22 am

Yeah, i agree with you.

That to me is what they need to do more of, spread the ball around, especially on 3rd downs. Rodgers and the offense is at its best when the ball is spread around. Getting the TE's as well as the RB's more involved in the passing game.

I would like to see Adams have a break out game. It feels to me like its coming. Especially when I hear Rodgers praising him...

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MarkinMadison's picture

October 10, 2014 at 07:04 am

There's a lot of truth to what you are saying. Additionally, I think this year it has had more to do with him only trusting one or two targets than anything else. The first few games it felt like it was the Jordy show. This offense didn't start to click this year until they started to spread the ball around. Hopefully that trend continues. If Davante Adams can have his break-out game this week the Packers will be looking good.

The OL and DL are just so damn thin right now...

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Tundraboy's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:21 am

Me too. Move the chains a couple of times

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Tundraboy's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:27 am

Lack of TE play hasnt helped, spreading it around is the answer to that. Having someone new, Adams, Janis or Harris having a breakout play alone this week would do wonders.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:29 am

I expect more screens and drop offs this week

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:57 am

Forget the 3rd and long or 3rd and 4. I'd consider it a huge improvement if we could just convert 3rd and one more often. We've got to be able to come up with one or two plays which we can convert EVERY time.

Looks like they've stopped diving Kuhn, but sleep developing runs that allow penetration are killing me. Don't know the 3rd and 1 stats but it seems like it is under 50%. Am I missing something? We make it look so much harder than it is.

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:58 am

"Slow" not "sleep." Although sleep may not be too far off.

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jmac34's picture

October 10, 2014 at 01:12 pm

I agree that third and one toss play to starks against MN is the perfect example of terrible play calling from GB on those third and short opportunities

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4thand1's picture

October 10, 2014 at 02:25 pm

I haven't seen Rodgers run a bootleg in forever. Why not surprise teams and do some read option, AR is plenty fast enough. I guess they don't want him running with the ball.

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4thand1's picture

October 10, 2014 at 08:33 pm

You've proved your wisdom time and time again. Proves my point, even an imbecile wouldn't expect it.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 11, 2014 at 01:13 pm

Exactly. With all the multidimensional talent on this O, and the "deep" playbook they run these type of plays. To me since Cobb came on board we have heard how potentially scary and unpredictable this team could be. Why not start showing it and using it.

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Lphill's picture

October 10, 2014 at 02:44 pm

the Packers scored alot of points against the Jets, Bears and Vikings who all have good defenses Mr Cow, the Bears were billed as a contender before the season with their running game and tall receivers so I think The Packers do well against a good defense, they played sloppy against the Lions and Seahawks and had some bad play calling but overall decent play. The Vikings do have a solid defense built through the draft but the Packers had no problem with them. I dont think Miami will be a problem.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 10, 2014 at 07:45 pm

Great points. That's about as good a summary of the season and where we are at as possible. Feel we could be on a nice roll.

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4thand1's picture

October 10, 2014 at 07:48 pm

The lolions suck. They've been picking in the top 10 of the draft forever, even the top 5. By now they should have won a SB. Keep changing coaches and GM's, see where it gets you.

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Evan's picture

October 10, 2014 at 08:31 pm

Nevermind.

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4thand1's picture

October 10, 2014 at 08:43 pm

So.......................whats yer point? Its one game. They'll lose to the Viqueens on Sunday. The lolions haven't won in GB in over 20 years BOOM! Flynnsantiy torched em for 6 TD's BOOM! They kept the worst GM in the history of football for years, BOOM! They have a flabby QB who throws sidearm and has almost as many ints as TD's this year, BOOM! A FA in Bush who can't hang onto the ball, BOOM! Man , go back to Detroit, or maybe you are already there. OH YEAH, and a guy who blew out his knee mocking Rodgers, LMFAO! BOOM!

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Lphill's picture

October 10, 2014 at 08:39 pm

the Lions did not dominate the Packers, the Packers Defense dominated the Lions high powered offense in their dome, sloppy play and poor play calling from Packers offense did them in. just like on NFL network tonight proving the Packers game by game are showing steady improvement on both sides ofthe ball, its a long season . COW the word fan comes the the word fanatic, you are not fanatical about the Packers which proves you are not a fan.must be a Vikings fan for sure.

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