The Lass Word: Packers Not Destined to Follow Vikings Nosedive
Even though salary cap situations are similar.
By KenLass
So here come the Vikings again. What a difference seven weeks can make. When these two teams opened the season on September 13, the Vikings were favored by three points and predicted by many to win the division.
Six games later, the Packers are 5-1, while the Vikings have stumbled to a 1-5 start, and now have begun trading off players (Yannick Ngakoue) for draft picks, indicating they may have thrown in the towel on this season and shifted into full blown rebuilding mode.
How did this happen?
Flashback to 2017. The Vikings finished 13-3, and had advanced all the way to the NFC championship game, losing to the eventual champion Philadelphia Eagles. Even though Case Keenum had a stellar year, finishing 4th in the league in passer rating, Vikings management figured the team was a quarterback away from winning the Super Bowl. So they went into all-out win now mode by outbidding everyone for that offseason's prized free agent, Kirk Cousins, signing him to an unprecedented three year, fully guaranteed $84 million dollar contract. Combined with other big deals for running back Dalvin Cook, receiver Adam Thielen and pass rusher Danielle Hunter, Minnesota found itself on the brink of salary cap prison.
It was worth it, they figured, to win a Super Bowl, something the franchise had never done in its 60 years of existence.
It was a gamble to be sure, and the dice came up snake eyes. In 2018, the Vikings dropped to 8-7-1. Cousins was disappointing, finishing 16th in QB rating. Things got better in 2019, as the team went 10-6 and made it to the second round of the playoffs. But it was too late. The bills for the spending spree came due, and the Vikings couldn't pay them. The team had to let a parade of key veterans whose contracts were up walk away. The mass exodus was especially devastating to the vaunted defense, which lost Everson Griffen, Lindval Joseph, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, Xavier Rhodes Jayron Kearse, Stephen Weatherly and Andrew Sendejo, among others.
On offense, the team had to peddle unhappy star receiver Stefon Diggs to Buffalo for draft picks. The Vikings then took another gamble this past offseason by extending Cousins to an annual average of $33 million a year, hoping he and Cook and Thielen and Hunter could carry the team. So far, the result has been disastrous. Hunter has been on IR, Cook is hurt again, and the young defense hasn't been able to hold up, ranking 23rd in the league.
The roster carnage may not be over. Salary cap figures are always fluid and hard to interpret, but Overthecap.com projects "effective cap space", which they define as the maximum cap space a team will have in 2021 after signing 51 players to their roster. They project the Vikings will be $9 million over the cap in their current situation in 2021.
It's hard not to notice the similarities to the Packers situation.
Like the Vikings, the Packers also went 13-3 and reached the NFC championship game. Like the Vikings, Packers' management went on a spending spree, signing Zadarious Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner to deals that cumulatively averaged $45.5 million per year. Combined with other big deals for Aaron Rodgers, Kenny Clark, Davante Adams and David Bakhtiari, the Packers are also perilously close to salary cap prison. And like the Vikings, the bills for that spree are coming due, with contracts ending for many key players. With the salary cap dropping next year, it is inevitable the Packers will lose several off of a list that includes Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Kevin King, and Corey Linsley. In addition, Overthecap projects the Pack to be around $4.6 million over the 2021 cap in effective cap space.
It is fair to ask if Green Bay is headed to the same kind of nosedive the Vikings appear to be in this season.
The answer is no, for several reasons. First, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers. Still playing at an All-Pro level. Even if all the offensive free agents-to-be wind up leaving, his presence alone can keep the team competitive, unlike Cousins. The Packers also have better depth than Minnesota, as was demonstrated this past Sunday when the Pack comfortably dispatched the Texans, despite playing without Jones, Bakhtiari and King, as well as starters Darnell Savage, Tyler Lancaster, Tyler Ervin, and then losing Krys Barnes to an in-game injury.
The Packers are also in a little bit better cap shape than Minnesota, with an estimated $6.9 million in current cap room, compared to the Vikings $5.1 The front office didn't make any desperate extensions to extend the dilemma into future years. The Clark deal was manageable. The Cousins deal was not. The offensive line that started last Sunday's game can return intact.
And while it's too late for the Vikes to retain the players they lost, it's not too late for the Packers. Keep in mind the salary cap will not be depressed forever. In fact, it should take a huge leap when TV contracts are renegotiated, beginning with Monday Night Football after the 2021 season. Green Bay could resign some of their stars, and push the money into future years when the cap expands. The Rams did that with players like Jalen Ramsey, who signed the biggest contract for a defensive back ever in September at $105 million. The Rams followed that with extensions for receivers Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. They are counting on those bills coming due when the cap is friendlier, and the Packers could do the same with Bakh, Jones, Linsley, etc.
Also, the market for Green Bay's free agents may not be as high, with all teams having much less money to spend.
I am not under any illusions the Packers will be a better team in 2021 than they are today. That might be a stretch considering there will be a lot of new faces in new places. But everyone else in the league will be in the same boat and I am confident Green Bay will be in the playoff hunt next year and in seasons to come.
OUTTAKES
• Being tight against the cap is actually a good thing. In the NFL, you get what you pay for, or in the case of the New York Jets, you don't get what you don't pay for. It seems every year the Jets are at, or near, the top in salary cap room. Overthecap once again shows the Jets among the league leaders in cap space. It means they simply don't have very many good players to pay, and their record (0-7) shows it. Even when they try to spend on free agents (see Leveon Bell) it blows up in their faces.
• You've been hearing a lot about those top four or five Packers who will be free agents next year. But the team is also going to have to decide what to do with several other notable players whose deals are running out. Folks like Tyler Ervin, Lane Taylor, Marcedes Lewis, Chandon Sullivan, Will Redmond, and Montravious Adams. Restricted free agents include Tyler Lancaster, Robert Tonyan, Will Redmond and Chandon Sullivan. Alan Lazard and Krys Barnes are exclusive rights FA's. None of them will break the bank but anybody coming back will still have to fit under the cap.
• What is the Pack going to do if Mason Crosby can't go? Not sure anybody else can place kick. Go for it every 4th down? Go for two after every score? I'm kinda down with that!
• After rewatching the game, I'm getting really excited about Kamal Martin. I wasn't in to all the preseason hype, figuring it didn't mean much with so little contact. But the way he pursued and hit in his 29 snaps against the Texans was eye catching.
• The Texans leading receiver against the Pack? None other than old teammate Randall Cobb. 8 catches for 95 yards. I was pulling for him. Just not too hard.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (64)
Coldworld
October 29, 2020 at 03:26 pm
Well that makes a pretty powerful case for not absorbing more cap in a trade this year. We are going to need that roll over. To do otherwise might even be seen as drawing a curtain in the Rodgers era.
Insightful. Thank you.
Guam
October 29, 2020 at 04:12 pm
Spot on comment CW. There will be no expensive new help coming this year and we will lose several ageing veterans during the offseason. I do expect the Packers to try to sign the younger players (second contract players) to back end loaded contracts to take advantage of a hopefully bigger cap in 2022 and beyond.
Turophile
October 31, 2020 at 07:01 am
Agree with the above posters that high priced (and even medium priced) help just isn't happening. Looking at overthecap, the 2021 effective cap space is shown at just under $7m, pretty middle of the road compared to other teams.
2021 is going to be a tough cap year for most teams. There are some bad teams, like the Browns, Jets and Jags, that have plenty of money and the 2021 cap squeeze will probably put a lot of good players on the market for them, so they could get better very quickly if they make good deals, but most teams, especially the better ones, are going to find it tight to stay under the cap.
Green Bay is not in bad shape (unlike the 49ers or Seahawks), but even so, 2021 will be a challenge to keep their better players and they certainly will have to let some go.
I don't know if teams will get some cap relief in 2021 (ie a cap above $175m). TGR might be a better poster to speculate on that, but I expect to see the Packers lose Linsley, one of Williams/Jones RBs, maybe even Kevin King, which is tough to swallow.
Financial prudence is an ongoing challenge for the Packers. They let Bryan Bulaga go this year (I was all for keeping him at $10m pa, which he got with the Chargers), but allowing him to walk might have been the right choice (he has been injured since week 3).
Imafan
October 29, 2020 at 03:49 pm
I'm just so thankful to finally hear the crack of shoulder pads and a runner stopped in his tracks rather than falling forward for more yardage! With Martin and Barnes we may have finally found a couple of intimidating thumpers! Go Pack!!!
Minniman
October 30, 2020 at 01:04 am
Running Backs, Te's and WR's are not "protected species" QB's. Play inside the rules, but bring it! I still love watching the Ravens LB's play for that exact reason - and what Z brought over with him!
Lare
October 29, 2020 at 04:43 pm
IMO, if the Packers can make it through the next couple years they can then get a GM that improves the team enough to get them to the SB. The Packers need to get past the MM & TT (BG) years in order to be successful in the future.
13TimeChamps
October 29, 2020 at 05:24 pm
Lol....13-3 last year and an appearance in the NFC Championship game, and a 5-1 start to this season with BG as GM doesn't constitute success in your book?
Oh, and by the way....those MM & TT years resulted in 8 straight playoff appearances and a Super Bowl win.
Also, if "they make it through the next couple of years", why would they change GM's?
Bure9620
October 29, 2020 at 10:02 pm
Uhh Not understanding any of this......have you not noticed the roster turnover under Gute?????
These players are the holdovers from Ted Thompson........
Mason Crosby
Aaron Rodgers
David Bahktiari
Corey Lindsley
Lane Taylor
Davante Adams
Kenny Clark
Kevin King
Montravius Adams
Jamal Williams
Aaron Jones
Dean Lowry
Lucas Patrick (PS)
Robert Tonyan (PS)
5 of these guys are in rookie contracts, 2 are ERFA
That is relatively significant roster turnover in 2 and half years......
Minniman
October 30, 2020 at 01:50 am
I agree or at least concede many of your contrarian points Lare, but I can't go here with you on this one.
Gute had a massive uphill battle plugging the talent drain from some regrettable drafts (and developments).
In fairness he's got 2 more seasons before you can make a call like that.
mrtundra
October 30, 2020 at 08:47 am
I think Lare is hoping a GM, like Rick Spielman, is available. BWAHAHAHA!
dobber
October 29, 2020 at 06:18 pm
"What is the Pack going to do if Mason Crosby can't go? Not sure anybody else can place kick. Go for it every 4th down? Go for two after every score? I'm kinda down with that!"
I'm a pretty big proponent of going for 2s more often, but you've gotta have a guy who can kick FGs. Several teams are carrying an extra K on their PS, just in case. Crosby had another DNP today (along with King, Jones, and Lewis--which was just a vet maintenance day), so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers try out a kicker. Supposedly they'd talked with Georgio Tavecchio recently. King's quad has apparently regressed, and I'm guessing Jones misses another week.
https://www.packers.com/team/injury-report/
Added in edit: JK Scott kicked 10 PAT's in college (10 out of 10) and attempted 4 FGs (1 of 4 attempts). I don't think he's the guy if Crosby can't go.
Leatherhead
October 29, 2020 at 07:53 pm
I’d go for 2 and I’d go for it on fourth down instead of kicking field goals and I’d do squib kickoffs.
If we can score 35 without guys like Adams and Lazard and Jones, we can score 36 without Crosby.
Lphill
October 29, 2020 at 06:18 pm
Get a receiver to help win now and worry about next season next season , the Patriots loaded up every year and purged at the same time , it seems to work.
CAG123
October 29, 2020 at 06:47 pm
It’s just crazy how the Packers seem to know who they aren’t going to resign and just let talent leave an All Pro LT let him walk, a borderline Pro bowl corner let him walk the Pats have it right get what you can get for pro bowl/all pro talent.
Lphill
October 29, 2020 at 07:27 pm
Micha Hyde still playing hard and making plays.
13TimeChamps
October 29, 2020 at 08:18 pm
Micah Hyde is doing well in Buffalo after GB decided not to re-sign him. Absolute proof that GB can't recognize in house talent. Because no other teams in the NFL never re-sign players who go on to have productive careers elsewhere. Let's fire the entire front office.
Speaking of NE. There's a couple of ex-Pats doing fairly well in Tampa Bay this year.
Point being....because of this pesky little thing called the salary cap, no team can keep EVERY player who has been successful for them. Some will leave and have successful careers elsewhere. It's called life in the salary cap NFL era.
Minniman
October 30, 2020 at 01:33 am
Packers got sucker-punched there. They took Ha-Ha in the 2014 draft and Randall and Rollins in the 2015 draft and all players had solid rookie seasons (Ha -Ha with a good Sophomore too). They let Casey Hayward walk in 2015 and Micah Hyde the year after - falsely believing that they were a DB scouting and high performance development factory. Ouch!
CAG123
October 30, 2020 at 08:46 am
You’re comprehension skills are severely lacking where did I say anything about firing anyone? Where did I even elude to that?
13TimeChamps
October 30, 2020 at 09:04 am
I was referring to Lphill, not you. He has posted numerous times in the past how inept and over his head Gutekunst is.
Lphill
October 30, 2020 at 09:29 am
Gute didn't resign Hyde Mr 13 ? In fact I've never criticized Gute here maybe disagreed but not criticized .
13TimeChamps
October 30, 2020 at 10:13 am
Nice stab at revisionist history. I specifically remember you claimed that Gute was "in over his head"...your words exactly...when he didn't sign a player you wanted.
But whatever...you just keep being you. Your posts are always a source of entertainment.
jannesbjornson
October 30, 2020 at 07:39 pm
They never even offered a basic deal during his 4th year when he made plays all over the place, especially the pick against Dallas in the playoffs. That's Low-ball in action. Ted was in hiatus.
jannesbjornson
October 29, 2020 at 09:09 pm
That's about right. They stuck with a coward in Dix and paid Amos like he was a probowl guy. The front office is still years behind the curve and Rodgers is not getting any younger.
13TimeChamps
October 29, 2020 at 09:19 pm
It sucks. If only we had kept Micah Hyde, we would have a couple more Lombardi's. Damn!
Lphill
October 29, 2020 at 11:06 pm
You look at the Packers like the Atlanta Braves who after winning 1 World series and making the playoffs 11 years straight they thought that was good enough , is making the playoffs good enough for you ? It seems so ,
Minniman
October 30, 2020 at 01:55 am
To the author's point - haste makes waste, Lphill
13TimeChamps
October 30, 2020 at 08:00 am
Of course I wish the Packers had more Super Bowl trophies. Fans of every teams want that. But the average fan doesn't seem to understand how difficult it is to win one. You act as though if GB doesn't win a Super bowl every two or three years, the FO doesn't know what they're doing.
But that wasn't the point of my post. My point was that the SC limits who you can keep and who you are forced to let go. You can't keep EVERY player you want. No team can. Everytime a player comes available, you're the first one screaming for the Packers to go sign him. If the GM listened to uninformed fan boys like you, we'd be in salary cap hell for years to come.
Bure9620
October 30, 2020 at 03:50 am
Two things......the Packers could not afford Micah Hyde they had too many mouths to feed.....in fact at the time, Buffalo appeared to be paying nearly over market value for Hyde......it was a gamble but it paid off for the Bills. The Packers tried to replace him in the draft but failed to do so......but this type of scenario happens to ALL teams....
13TimeChamps
October 30, 2020 at 09:00 am
EXACTLY my point. Thank you.
jannesbjornson
October 30, 2020 at 07:40 pm
Cut Perry.
CAG123
October 30, 2020 at 08:52 am
Like why is Hyde being brought up? Y’all talking about 3-4 years ago I’m talking about the last two they knew they weren’t going to resign Bulaga, Blake, Fackrell they probably aren’t going to resign KK and Bahk my point and ONLY point is trade em and get some decent compensation.
13TimeChamps
October 30, 2020 at 09:22 am
You have to find willing trade partners to do that. Who's going to give up any real value for a player who is about to become a free agent at the end of the year and might sign elsewhere after you just spent draft capital to acquire him?
Teams that are interested in players like Bahk, King, Jones, etc. would rather wait for them to become FAs, and not give up any draft capital or players to acquire them.
CAG123
October 30, 2020 at 08:16 pm
Not exactly the case teams also want first dibs without having to muddle through all the FA visits
MarkinMadison
October 30, 2020 at 10:52 am
You're assuming you would get more in trade than the compensatory picks are worth. The only advantage I see is that you get the pick a year sooner. And the cost would the loss of a top level player for a year. No thanks.
CAG123
October 30, 2020 at 08:19 pm
That’s exactly the case that’s not assumption you’re getting less value with comp picks most of the time an all pro LT will definitely fetch you a 1st where you’re probably getting a 3rd or 4th with comp picks.
13TimeChamps
October 30, 2020 at 09:40 pm
No one is going to give a 1st for a 6 month rental.
Bure9620
October 30, 2020 at 03:10 am
Bahktiati will be 30 at the beginning of his new deal.....Do the Packers want $15-17 mil annually invested here? Bahk will want at a minimum Tunsil money....this offense also is not McMuffin's offense.....less Tackles on an island, less long developing routes......I would be surprised if he is resigned honestly....you would then basically not resign anyone else. Rodgers is not in the Packers long term plans either, I think they draft a tackle for this offense and for Jordan Love, the future starting QB. I think the Packers take a tackle high in the next draft....
MarkinMadison
October 30, 2020 at 10:55 am
Re Rodgers, you are assuming Jordan Love is developing. That very much remains to be seen. Wilde hinted the other day that when everyone got to camp the Packers realized that Love may have been a big mistake. Time will tell, but I think there is a much better than 50/50 chance that Rodgers will be the only real option at QB for at least another two years.
Bure9620
October 30, 2020 at 12:50 pm
Jordan Love WILL be the the starting QB......HE....IS.....THE GUY......I really don't know how else to explain that.....how can everyone already know Love is a mistake right when they get to camp???? The guy did not even have an offseason!! That HAS to be Wilde's opinion and he is typically wrong about most things....
Does anyone remember what Aaron Rodgers looked like his first preseason? Throwing balls at guys feet.....he was lost.. I was stunned he was a 1st round pick........It would not surprise me coming from Jason Wilde, that guy hung onto how letting Favre go was a mistake for years.......talked about letter Jordy Nelson go for like 2 years after they let him walk......
Thegreatreynoldo
October 30, 2020 at 03:03 pm
The coaches and GM realized real fast that Brian Brohm could not play QB.
IDK about Love either way. But there is zero chance of GB moving AR with the way he is playing right now.
GB is going to need to decide on AR next February since they will need to pull some salary cap space from him. If they don't restructure AR before the new league year, that will tell something about what they really think of Love, and of AR.
MarkinMadison
October 31, 2020 at 08:20 am
"Does anyone remember what Aaron Rodgers looked like his first preseason? Throwing balls at guys feet.....he was lost.."
And do you remember how many years Rodgers sat on the bench and developed? Three years.
Bure9620
October 30, 2020 at 03:10 am
Bahktiati will be 30 at the beginning of his new deal.....Do the Packers want $15-17 mil annually invested here? Bahk will want at a minimum Tunsil money....this offense also is not McMuffin's offense.....less Tackles on an island, less long developing routes......I would be surprised if he is resigned honestly....you would then basically not resign anyone else. Rodgers is not in the Packers long term plans either, I think they draft a tackle for this offense and for Jordan Love, the future starting QB. I think the Packers take a tackle high in the next draft....
Coldworld
October 30, 2020 at 07:13 am
If you read this article it should make it clear that it’s not caprice on the part of the Packers but cap constraints. Just don’t see any way we can sign all of these and maybe not Bakh at all. The NFL is built to punish teams for having to many elite players. I think the unexpected cap shrinkage expected this year had a real impact on the Packers plans.
Bure9620
October 30, 2020 at 08:18 am
Correct
Leatherhead
October 30, 2020 at 10:58 am
Part of winning the trophy is replacing guys.
We were going to have six starters be free agents next year. We kept Clark.
That means we have 5 guys to retain or replace and about $6 million to work with.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 30, 2020 at 03:07 pm
Gute probably expected to have $35M more in cap space for the 2021 year. $23M from $198M down to a probable $175M, and $10M to $12M more in normal cap inflaction.
It would have made it much easier to keep the guys GB wanted. I don't blame Gute for failing to foresee Covid.
CoachDino
October 30, 2020 at 01:06 am
Oh my Gosh - this board is full of fans with IMO limited comprehensive knowledge of the league. Even less of the packers Offense and how it works. What have we been watching other than 30pt games with a QB playing and putting up stats at an elite level. Like Best in the league. So why oh why is the answer a WR? The depth has been unheard of this year and outstanding in covering for injuries, who is responsible for that. the GM. Im not posting an opinion, these are facts derived from key performance indicators including Record, NFC Championship appearance, Offensive Stats etc... just win baby. What more can the offense do? Was it not having another rec, that led to the Tampa or SF loss? NOT BY any means. ARod and the OL had bad games plus the D buckled when left on the field for too long. That's what happens with a bend but don't break defense. Not to mention exhaustion. ARod is our Star player and as he goes the team goes.
As to the cap. They are in both good and bad areas of concern. All these RFA are awesome and no worry to resign, not only will they be resigned but they will remain very inexpensive. The ERFA should be very good deals as well. This is all due to the job Gute has done with a few TT holdovers.
IMO you have one scary FA in Bach, two worrisome ones in King and Lindsey and as much as I like Ajones, he does benefit from the packers offense as a whole and Rb's are proven to be the easiest to replace, and oh ya, Gute drafted one already who will have a year under his belt.. Ajones can be stopped when teams want to, but when they do, the passing game is elite. So teams are always going to focus on the pass and that means good RB's will be successful.
AROD is the difference maker and allows the Packers to get by w/o a stable of Elite Receivers. He has made Tonyan, Lazard, MVS. Williams and Jones all elite rec this year hasn't he? So its a matter of diminishing returns.
For all those WR, Gute haters oops, I mean, " ARod is done posters" from 2019 (odds are there's plenty of intersection between those groups) Arod is being paid and was extended for these very reasons. Arod doesn't need receivers, HELLO he needs an OL and a decent defense. The Packers have one of the most expensive and best OL's in the league and a midland defense. The plan is working. 2021 the Defense will be better and the offense will be pretty much the same (sign Bach, push the money out to the TV deal years) and depend on your draft and develop strategy with role player/fill in FA for another couple of years.
Bure9620
October 30, 2020 at 04:08 am
I am not sure Rodgers has made all of these WRs "elite" as you say but I get what you mean, Rodgers has helped raise their overall play (when he plays well) and Adams is elite on his own.....but the Packers have kicked the can which is why they are in the position they are in......not as bad as Saints or Vikings obviously but one with lots of backlogged deals (which is why this thread was written)...Z and Preston Smith have super backloaded deals which inflate in fact Preston could become cap casualty next year as his cap hit becomes $16 million......likely due to the uncertainty of a CBA getting done.......Kenny Clark's extension cap hit balloons to around $20 million in 2022......Lets also not forget Jaire Alexander will be looking to get PAID.......like easily Jalen Ramsey money.....do you let a shut down corner walk while you have an aging Tackle on a 3rd contract protecting an aging QB whom is not even in Packers long term plans??? Rodgers and Bahks hit would collectively be $45-50 mil together.........Jordan Love will be starting in the next couple years anyway.....he IS the guy....Likely 2022......I would be shocked and frankly disappointed if Bahktiari is resigned to anything long term..... I think they let him walk. There is simply no way with all of deals coming due and a decreased cap number in 2021 you pay an aging Tackle huge money for a 3rd contract....
Coldworld
October 30, 2020 at 07:37 am
Coach, you get comment of the week from me. So quickly we forget how bare the cupboard was. We ignore the fact that part of that solution was a need to spend on a team with a huge QB salary, followed by an unpredicted cap dip.
The point of the cap is to prevent dynasties and to level the playing field. All teams have to have role players and risk development prospects. If a guy does what he’s needed, he has value. It’s ridiculous to say we are starved of offensive weapons. Look at the results. One team has shut us down by overwhelming our QB protection.
We can’t resign everyone. I think the cap shrinkage may prevent us holding in to Bakh. Cutting a few here and there won’t make a difference at the level of Bakh’s likely cost and he is at an age where back loading could mean millions in dead money at some point.
One thing that came out this season is that our depth is massively better across the board. Not perfect, but a transformation. We are going to have to accept that some of that has to be the future.
We live in a world where seemingly many expect 40 points a game: Madden? Where there are players on trees ready to be low cost stars from the start and where we only care about this season until it’s next season. This is not NFL football. Sorry.
One thing about Gute is he has left no stone unturned. Lazard, Sullivan, Redmond are examples of useful to key players discarded for others. Gute is willing to churn to improve but not to lose cap discipline (may well be Ball on that one). Good. Cap he’ll can destroy a team for a decade.
dobber
October 30, 2020 at 08:12 am
"The point of the cap is to prevent dynasties and to level the playing field. "
That might be the result of the cap, but I would argue the point of the cap was to prevent what was happening in MLB at the time (big market vs. small market, ridiculously deep pocketed owner vs. just deep pocketed owner) from upsetting competitive balance...so it was really aimed at ownership. It also established a baseline to try to keep owners investing in their teams and not using their teams as cash cows. It's probably worked better in the NFL than any other sport with capped salaries.
jannesbjornson
October 30, 2020 at 07:48 pm
I guess big bad Bill didn't get that memo. Nine SBs and six wins tells another story--competence managing the player acquisition dept.
Bearmeat
October 30, 2020 at 06:34 am
If it were me (and it's not thank God), I'd re-sign Bakh at all costs. King, Linsley, Ervin, Lewis, Taylor and yes, Jones will go I'd think. I'd like to have Jones, but I'm not going to pay 17m for him.
I'd also cut Kirksey, Lowry Amos, Wagner, and perhaps P Smith to get cap room. Every single one of those vets has a promising cheap player behind him.
I'd go after another WR and possibly a DT this year if I could with the savings. Just my half baked thoughts.
The Vikings problem (like the Bears) was that they overpaid for a star player. Those deals come home to roost. Cousins is not a transformative player and therefore is not worth 33m AAV. They should have recognized that they relied on their WRs and defense and Cook to win - not the QB. The Bears overpaid for a defensive player. Period.
If your QB isn't a stud, he's not worth north of 30m. OLBs are not worth 28m. GB has made neither mistake.
flackcatcher
October 30, 2020 at 07:19 am
"The Vikings problem (like the Bears) was that they overpaid for a star player. Those deals come home to roost. Cousins is not a transformative player and therefore is not worth 33m AAV. They should have recognized that they relied on their WRs and defense and Cook to win - not the QB. The Bears overpaid for a defensive player. Period.
If your QB isn't a stud, he's not worth north of 30m. OLBs are not worth 28m. GB has made neither mistake." This simply can not be overstated. The Green Bay front office, unlike the Vikings and Bears, is well aware of the Cap and plays the long game. Unlike our division rivals, who will suffer for years on end.
Coldworld
October 30, 2020 at 07:38 am
Not just over paid in terms of amount but how they structured it.
jannesbjornson
October 30, 2020 at 07:53 pm
Case Keenum will be starting for D.C. this week.
Guam
October 30, 2020 at 08:08 am
We've had this discussion before Bearmeat. I don't believe a third contract (read aging and potentially injury prone) LT is worth north of $20 million AAV and that is what Bahk wants (Tunsill is at $22 million AAV). I would much prefer keeping King and the RFA's as younger players on the rise.
MLF's offense does not require an all pro LT (unlike MM's offense) and there is no need to sink that much money into a player that may not finish his contract (only one of the prior seven Packer O-lineman to sign a third contract has finished that contract with the signing team).
Bure9620
October 30, 2020 at 08:13 am
Bearmeat, releasing Kirksey, Lowry Smith and Amos would amount to $18.5 Million in dead cap space....in a year where the cap is going down.......If that were the case I would hope the Packers let everyone walk......trade Rodgers and rebuild.......That's alot of nothing to swallow to hold onto Bahktiari.....
Bearmeat
October 30, 2020 at 01:59 pm
Fair point. Like I said, I'm not a cap-ologist.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 30, 2020 at 03:33 pm
There would be a lot of dead money, but it also opens up about $$26M in cap savings. I am not a fan of releasing Wagner because GB with AR at QB can never have too much depth at OL. Wagner only has a $6M cap hit in 2021: while his $4.25M in cap savings is juicy, it is not low hanging fruit given the quality of his play at RT. The rest of the players you listed are definitely on my chopping block.
GB would have to find an OLB who can drop into coverage and is not awful at run D and rushing if they release Preston Smith, but if he doesn't pick up his performance, even that consideration won't matter.
Leatherhead
October 30, 2020 at 11:03 am
You would blow 5 more holes in the starting lineup for cap space? And sign a tackle on the bad side of 30 for $50 million
?
Leatherhead
October 30, 2020 at 11:10 am
If I could resign King, I would. I’d let the other FAs get their money elsewhere.
I’d replace Linsley with Jenkins at center. I’d spend a premium draft pick at Tackle
I’d go with Dillon, Ervin, and a Day 3 pick in the backfield
I would spend a premium pick on a guy to pair with Clark. If we’re going to play only two, we need two monsters.
Bearmeat
October 30, 2020 at 01:59 pm
Would it "blow" holes in the starting lineup to replace an expensive vet with a promising player on a rookie contract?
P Smith - Gary
King - Jackson? Hallman? (King is always fricken hurt anyway)
Amos - Redmond?
Kirksey - Martin
Jones - Dillon
Linsley - The C they drafted last May. Hanson. Or Runyan.
Maybe some of those don't pan out. But let's not act like any of those players are underpaid superstars (assuming Jones would get a mega-deal - he's underpaid now obviously)
PatrickGB
October 30, 2020 at 12:05 pm
Just imagine how much cap money this team will have when Rodgers is gone! ;-)
For me I am just enjoying the ride and worry about next year...next year. GPG!
Thegreatreynoldo
October 30, 2020 at 03:44 pm
Success in the NFL is highly dependent on having a very good to elite QB. The Jets can spend on free agents until the cows come home (and might do so next year if prices are deflated) but they won't contend until the QB is good. With $110M in cap space for 2021, the Jets could probably buy 10 pretty good starters.
Sam Darnold was probably better as a rookie than he is in this, his 3rd year. If he's the QB, it almost doesn't matter what else the Jets do, unless the light is going to come for him soon.