Bruce, I'm not sure that is true. Are FA's getting any more of the pie than before? Since FA started in the 90's and the Packers signed one of the first BIG ones in Reggie White I'd be curious if the %'s are really that much different.

The years he had all those picks weren't SB winning ones for the most part. He had a streak of some pretty bad drafting in there.

Bahk! He over paid for Bahk. TT would have moved on. Spriggs became the Bust. (But TT was sick.) Adams return was the best thing Gute's done! ( Since his first trade down with NO.). But would have Rodgers returned ? Probably not. Still he should have waited! I want Watson, Burks, or Tolbert. If Gutey wants out of Cap hell. He'll go for McBride. (Which means a trade down.) Because Tonyan, wants money. Degura can't catch above his Head. And McBride will be just as good as Hockenson.

Packers overpaid Aaron Rodgers and that overpaid is huge. He had 11 years to go back to SB and what Packers fans has. Just theit hearts broken at least 5 times if not more. Only common in all those 11 years was and is Aaron Rodgers.

Packers gave him $50 mill per year for his role in braking fans hearts.

They overpaid David Bakhtiari because of Crying Diva, they brought WR who should be retired, they brought him super teams and what he did. He choked in every of those 11 years in post season. He might be gifted like no QB ever, but he did not know how to use that God given talent.

Take of that $50 mill (and by liar and choker that is team friendly deal) Packers suddenly have very nice future.

Maybe.

If 14 teams draft WR in the first 2 rounds, there will be a number of GMs looking for jobs in a few years.

WR is important, but without a QB and line to protect the QB, they won’t have near the impact for a teams future. Look at Detroit drafted top WRs three years in a row. Millen was fired for his incompetence.

NP, keep in mind, the first round carries 50% bust rate and if you are at the end of the 1st round that number goes to around 65% based on an article I just read. It is based on 10 years and whether a player is a starter. Other parameters are there, and I won't bore you with the details.

With that said, there is no way, unless Gutey hits the pot of gold over the rainbow, nails all of his first 4 picks. Out of the first 4, if he hits 2, he is hitting better than the average.

Of course, it's unrealistic, but we can all hope for the best.

Great post NP. I agree this draft is critical in determining how painful a post Rodgers rebuild will eventually be.

This is a strong draft for WR's so I imagine we could get a stud with one of our first rounders and a decent prospect with one of the #2's if the value is there. Or maybe a trade up in rd 2 as we have plenty of draft capital and it would be tough to find roster space for all those draft picks

GB has been pretty successful finding value in later rounds so there is hope after day one that we draft some good players to take over when they start losing expensive FA's down the road.

Savage George Young’s comment is spot on. For years George Steinbrenner threw all kinds of money at free agents for the Yankees. Most of which never reached the level of play for the salary they were given.

The same applies to the NFL and other sports as well.
Thanks, Since ‘61

I believe we had to let him go because of getting a return from a soon to be 30 year old taking 10-15% or so of your salary cap. The risk of injury and declining abilities is increased greatly after 30.

Also, when you figure in a 1st and 2nd round draft pick and 20M in SC money this year alone that value is greater than his contributions. Keeping in mind, we were 7-0 without Adams in the line-up.

The problem was the pick of Love. Thank You Aaron Rodgers.

I agree we have a two-year window and that is why I wouldn't trade into next year. Many rookies take a 2nd year jump and if you trade into next year and if you only have a two-year window before the rebuild you didn't get the value of the 2nd year jump. I did an interesting project of trading all picks out of the first round, into the 2nd and 3rd and here are the results. Keep in mind, WR's bust rate doesn't drop much in the 2nd round vs the 1st. We might think the 1st rounders are much better, but the numbers prove otherwise.

35 - Treylon Burks, WR
50 - Kenyon Green OG A&M
53 - Boye Mafe Edge Minnesota
59 - Christian Watson, WR North Dakota State
62 - DeMarvin Leal, DL A&M
66 - Skyy Moore, WR
69 - Kyler Gordan CB Washington
90 - Quay Walker LB Georgia
92 - Jeremy Rucker TE OSU
132 - Nick cross S Maryland
228 - Jalen Wydermeyer, TE
249 - Logan Bruss, OT WISCONSIN

Very interesting, if you can find the trade partners, the talent you can accumulate to try and Nail 2 -4 starters and/or major contributors.

Yeah, maybe. I am generally interested only in the first three years of a deal. I don't remember, but something like 50% of 4 and 5 year contracts only last 3 seasons or fewer. If they added two years with $25M base salaries, that is a different animal from adding guaranteed money in the out years, or even if they added dead money over the course of the five years through a signing bonus.

Very true. There is a slight benefit for teams like the Packers when there is a huge increase in the cap since the dead money numbers pushed into the future are being paid for with inflated cap dollars.

It is something though it is clearly not a panacea and the Packers remain at a competitive disadvantage relative to teams whose cap was in a healthy shape.

If I had to guess, 2022 is AJones' last year in GB.

Amos will be 31 in 2 years so can see him goi g as his contract will be too expensive.

Jones will most likely be gone as well due to an expensive contract and RB are a dime a dozen in the NFL these days and can be found with day 3 draft picks.

Bahk may or may not be done as he will be 33 in two years and elite tackles can play well into their mid 30's but his contract may be too rich by that point.

I think fans forget Clark was only 20 years old when he was drafted. He is only 26 now so in 2 years will only be 29yrs old by mid season being born in October

Elite DL players are not as easy to replace so unless his play starts declining and injuries start impacting his performance I don't see them letting him go unless they can't afford to pay him.

Since 61, they have exit strategy. Resignations. Mike Murphy will retire one year earlier, Gutekunst will become GM of one of new (maybe European franchise), MLF will become OC somewhere else where he will be able to sell them theory of complexity from simplicity...

That is their exit strategy...

I know it's not the main gist of your post, but I had to comment.

Kenny Clark will be 28 in two years, and nose tackle is an outlier position where players are often still in their prime years into their early 30's.

Unlike most skills of other positions in the NFL that rely heavily on athleticism, twitch, and speed, the ability to hold the point of attack vs. the double team is tied to raw strength and technique- two things that can be improved upon into your 30's. There is a fairly extensive history of dominant nose tackles over 30 in the NFL.

It's going to be a matter of staying free of injury more than anything for a player like Clark. If his body holds up, I would expect him to continue to play at a high level into his early to mid 30's if he so chooses. Something he actually has over many of the dominant NTs of the past who played well into their 30's is his body type. Many of the old-school NTs were hulking masses. Lots of stress on knees, ankles (and hearts). Clark is a bull who has exceptional strength in a more compact frame. The fact that he can play the double with great anchor at a weight that is 10-25 lbs less than a traditional NT should pay dividends to his longevity.

I believe Clark has a strong chance to display top tier nose play into his early to mid 30's if the back and knees hold up.

AAV is one thing. Structure, guarantees, bonuses, and cash value are completely different. Most players who sign longer term second and third contracts know they aren't likely to see that AAV play out in full. If I had to guess, the issue at this point is guaranteed money. The Packers don't like to give much of it, and players (and their reps) want as much as they can get.

Great post jht. My only question is if both Jenkins and Alexander are healthy and on top of their game which one is more valuable to the team and will cost more money to resign.

My guess is unless the Packers get lucky, and draft another CB with Alexander shutdown skills, he would be harder to replace in the pass happy NFL.

Now Jenkins should cost a lot less, 1/2 as much?, to resign especially if he stays at guard but the Packers don't seem to value OL not playing left tackle so they may let Jenkins walk as interior OL are easier to replace than Allpro CB's.

Jaire is only 25 so if healthy it would be tough to let him walk for nothing. My guess is they tag and trade him if they can't sign him.

I guess you ignored my last post towards you when you talk about how the Packers fold against "real" competition, so I'm forced to respond again:

The Packers beat the Cardinals, 49ers, Bengals, and Rams in 2021.

They held the Chiefs to 13 points and lost by 6 in a game where Love was slammed into the Rodgers-based offensive game plan with less than 3 days to prepare in his first ever start.

I'm sorry, but the narrative that the Packers only hold up vs. weak NFC North teams and can't beat "real" competition is not supported by facts. Yes, they got bounced by the 9ers in the divisional round. The offense and ST had horrible outings. That doesn't erase the fact they beat 4 play off caliber teams, "real" competition including both Super Bowl representatives in 2021. The Packers beat "real" competition just about every season they get the opportunity.

Your tired narrative that they aren't a "real" competitive team doesn't hold water. Do they shoot themselves in the foot in the playoffs? Yeah, eventually, when they lose a playoff game (like every other team in the playoffs except one does each year) they... lose to a playoff team. Saying they fold against real competition isn't accurate. The Packers certainly have games that make you wonder WTF.. but it isn't because they don't have the talent or the ability to hang with these other teams.

Ever hear of an underwater, or upside-down mortgage?
You might be a big fan of one.

I thought that the asteroid was coming in 2249. I had those four extra years all planned out. Damn, my crystal ball was wrong again. Back to the Quija board. Thanks, Since '61

But they have a Lombardi trophy so their FO has job security to get through the salary cap hell years and try again. Plus their QB Stafford is 4 years younger than Rodgers and gives them credibility and a chance to reach the playoffs every season. We could lose Rodgers after 2022, still be in SC hell and have no one to play QB.
That's the problem with the Packers current scenario. Whenever Rodgers retires the team is going off a cliff unless we draft or trade for a QB who can play quickly. Thanks, Since '61