Several weeks ago I put out my annual ask for participants in my Fan Expectations Survey, which I began in 2018. We had a fantastic turnout this year of nearly 1100 fans from Twitter and CheeseheadTV (and, of course, several trolls as well). 

Each year most of the questions stay the same, but the results always give an indication as to the mood of the Packer fanbase heading into this season. 

This year is the first time in recent memory that Packer fans haven't been expecting a deep playoff run or Super Bowl berth. Instead, one might characterize the mood based on our survey results as "cautious optimism." Fans are not as positive about the team's chances of success as they've been in recent years, but most people still expect them to be in the mix for a playoff spot, despite the departure of Aaron Rodgers and ascension of Jordan Love to the starting quarterback position.

The winds have certainly changed in Green Bay, and that's reflected in these survey results. Whether those winds produce breaths of fresh air or inescapable odors is anyone's guess, but it does feel like Packer fans are embracing the unknown and looking forward to the season to come.

Let's take a look at what fans had to say this year!

Most fans are in the 6-7 range when asked how they feel about the upcoming season, with the 5s ranking a distant third. This would be the overall worst Packer fans have felt about their team heading into the season since I started this survey, but it's still better than one might expect when you're losing a Hall of Fame quarterback who's won two recent MVP awards. To me this indicates a level of uncertainty in what the team can accomplish, but a willingness to take a "wait and see" approach and a general sense of positivity given the circumstances.

This one was all over the place this year. A plurality (34.8 percent) expect the Packers to win 9 games, and the starry-eyed optimists have the Packers winning as many as 10. But a significant portion expect the Packers to win 8 games (14.3 percent) or 7 (10.5 percent). Notably, more people expect the Packers to win 11 games or more than 6 or fewer. As someone who has the Packers winning 9 this year, this seems about right to me. It represents a significant lowering of expectations from previous years (a majority expected 12 or 13 wins in 2022), but also gives a sense of the grounded expectations Packer fans have for the upcoming season. Of course, there are those on the more pessimistic side who might argue 9 wins is still overly optimistic, but I wouldn't be among them.

Okay, this was never going to be close. What was more interesting to me was that BESIDES the Chiefs, the next-highest result here was the Detroit Lions, who have indeed had the Packers' number of late. More people voted for the Lions than playoff teams like the Chargers, Bucs, Giants, and Vikings. We'll get back to the Lions in a little bit, but this is a sign of the increased expectations and respect that Detroit is garnering this offseason.

The vast majority of respondents either see a first-round exit (38.6%) for the Packers or a failure to make the playoffs entirely (38.1%). HUGE difference from almost the entire history of this survey, when the expectations were a Super Bowl berth in most cases. There are still those pie-in-the-sky dreamers picking a Super Bowl berth, but even a second-round loss accounts for just 17.9 percent of respondents. It certainly feels as though fans have tempered their expectations for this team.

Speaking of tempered expectations, not only is this the first time in the history of this survey where the Packers aren't overwhelming favorites to win their division--it's the first time they're not favorites at all. Only around a third of respondents expect the Packers to win the NFC North. A substantial majority see another team taking the crown this coming season. Clearly, most fans are forecasting a season of transitions where the focus is growth over results.

We already talked a bit about the Lions, but this is another showing of respect. More than three quarters of respondents believe if the Packers do not win the division, it will be the Lions. This, despite the Vikings coming off a pretty easy run to the division title. The Lions have a lot of hype to live up to this coming season, and on the first night of the new season we will get a small glimpse of whether they'll be capable of living up to it.

The vast majority of respondents expect the Packers' offense to fall somewhere in the middle of the pack. Of course, there's a big difference between 11 and 20, but you get the point. People don't expect them to be world beaters, but they also don't expect them to be inept. This is a reasonable expectation for an offense with decent weapons and a quarterback who has been learning the system and awaiting his opportunity for three years. There will be growing pains to be sure, but there's no reason why this can't be a reasonably efficient unit.

There's a little more positivity about the defense. Most respondents have the unit somewhere in the middle of the pack, but there are still a good third that believe the unit can finish in the top 10. I believe these people to be admirably misguided; I have a hard time believing a Joe Barry-led unit can ever amount to overall success. But the talent is certainly there, and if they CAN play top 10 style football, there's absolutely no reason this can't be a playoff team.

I wanted to add a question to get a sense of how Packer fans are feeling about Jordan Love heading into this year. Passer rating is not a perfect metric, but it's the best one for these purposes. Basically, what I wanted to know is if people think Love can be better than the league average for 2023, and as it turns out, nearly three quarters of respondents believe he can. That's a pretty good showing of faith in Love after relatively little meaningful action over the last several years. It's also a reasonable metric to hold him to. Better than average and there's reason to think they've got something they can work with. Worse than average and the team will probably hesitate to lock him in for a longer contract.

The vast majority of survey respondents believe that, despite the Bears' owner moving to New York, the Packers will continue their longstanding dominance over their historical rivals. The amount of salt that will come pouring out of Chicago if the Packers do indeed take the Bears down could turn Lake Michigan from the world's second-largest lake into its fifth-largest ocean.

OTHER QUESTIONS

Alright, as usual, we have several free response questions. The first:

Which player will be the biggest (positive) surprise in 2023?

The most common responses were:

• Jordan Love
• Luke Musgrave
• Samori Toure
• Devonte Wyatt
• Lukas Van Ness

The reasons for Love being a popular response here are obvious. Musgrave is going to get a lot of attention and hype from fans who have been starved for quality all-around tight end play for a long time. Samori Toure might not even make the final roster, honestly, but there are plenty of people who have been taken in by some offseason hype surrounding him. Hey, why not? In a team without a lot of WR experience, maybe he seizes another shot. Wyatt started to come on late in 2022 and should receive a lot more playing time this season. Van Ness looks every bit the part of a stud EDGE rusher, and will get plenty of opportunities early in the season with Rashan Gary still coming back from injury. He could indeed prove to be a positive surprise, even with high expectations already.

Which player will be the most important to the team's success in 2023?

I used to exempt Aaron Rodgers from being an answer to this question because it was always so obvious, and it turns out I should have done the same with Jordan Love. He was far and away the top chocie here, and it's understandable why. But beyond Love, here are the other most common responses:

• Aaron Jones
• David Bakhtiari
• Kenny Clark
• Jaire Alexander
• Christian Watson

Watson makes his debut in this list after a strong second half of his rookie season. The other four are established stars who will need to play well to help carry this team. Jones will be asked to take a lot of the load off of Love. Bakhtiari was my personal pick here; we've seen how much the team struggled in his absence in the previous couple years. It's a different football team when he's in the game playing his caliber of football. Kenny Clark continues to be one of the most underrated defensive players in the game, and Jaire Alexander had a strong return to form in 2023 after an injury season. 

What are you most looking forward to about the Packers' 2023 season?

Here's where I like to let the survey respondents do the talking! Respondents provided either their twitter handle or CHTV username. This is, obviously, just a very small sample of responses. Thanks to everyone who participated!
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"Feels like a fresh start in many ways. People have tamped down their expectations about the offense, which I think is healthy. Which means there really could be some surprises coming out of the season. In my 31 years on this planet this might be the most anticipation (good anticipation by the way) I have for a season because there is a lot of unknown." - @krame1wj

"Who the new stars will be." - Ken Lass

"Beer and brats" - Surburban Ervin

"A fresh start, less drama, and the fellas playing for one another." -Masonkrusie

"Progress from Jordan Love." - NickPerry

"The team's energy and speed." - TxFred

"A new era." -JPlutte

"Seeing the real LaFleur offense." - Xpar60

"I want to see the offense growing up together." - Wendellferreira

"The excitement of the unknown. Not being favored or expected to win will actually be refreshing." - @JRbadgers93

"Watching the Vikings come back down to earth." - @BMaafi

"Watching games with my kids." - Bdubs

"Jordan Love proving the haters wrong. And Matt LaFleur finally getting the recognition he deserves." - chris_wanless

"No more Rodgers drama." - GBfan13

"Tight ends learning their position" - Cheesetradamus

"The unknown. I feel like the rest of the NFC North is in such disarray with Minnesota losing key players and reports of unhappiness in the locker room, and then Detroit's gambling scandal. This almost feels like the perfect time for the Packers to have a successful 'reboot' season." - @gmeinholz

"Not having the high anxiety that comes with expectations to reach the Super Bowl" - SJEC

"Leadership roles post Rodgers/Lewis/Crosby/Amos" - @brendan_woods37

"Rashan Gary's return" - @jacobwestendorf

"Watching Love's development" - @palmtrees0rbust

"Eating brats with my son while watching CHTV with Nagler and Benhke" - Bartdell1

"LVN" - Packerbackerjim

"I've long thought Aaron ROdgers would be a great Ewing Theory candidate, and now we get to see if that's correct." - @mmmBorck

"Learning if Jordan Love is or can become the guy" - WisconsinStrong

"Jordan Love conquering the NFL and the hearts of Green Bay as a fifth in a string of legendary quarterbacks." - Nagawicka

"Christian Watson's development" - atundraman

"A pissed off Joe Barry who is sick of calls for his job" - @BigtextKevin

"Seeing if the young core has promise. Same feeling I had in 2008." - @dustinsontag

"Fresh, modern offense with lots of pre-snap motions, jet sweeps, and RPOs" - @Gosebourne1

"Game one" - kcdaggett

"Not having to look at the diva's stupid face ever again" - Bearmeat

"Seeing the offense spread the ball around and use the middle of the field for the first time in ages." - DocHoliday

"The growth of the young WR group." - Jersey Al

"Young talent being able to flourish without having and needing to rely on Aaron Rodgers" - @Matt_Fra_

"No expectations. I'm ready for the next chapter." - Soundsmadeup

"Watching this team build towards opening up a new window in '24" - @TylerHerrick

"Open expectations and a lack of entitlement" - @TundraVision

"Jordan Love's progression" - @richtermusic

"How Anders Carlson gets acclimated to NFL kicking" - @DTowleJr

BONUS

Last but not least, here are the most common Super Bowl matchups aI received!

• Chiefs vs. 49ers
• Chiefs vs. Eagles
• Bills vs. 49ers
• Bengals vs. 49ers
• Bengals vs. Eagles

THANK YOU TO EVERYONE WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS SURVEY! You provided excellent data and feedback as always!