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Success in College Free Agency Helps Balance Out Ted Thompson's Draft Misses

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Success in College Free Agency Helps Balance Out Ted Thompson's Draft Misses

Consistently making correct decisions during the annual college draft is the most important—but certainly not only—facet of team-building in the NFL. 

The franchises best suited to win now and in the future draft good players, develop those players in a set system, and then retain those players through second and third contracts.

While the Green Bay Packers have thrived under the draft-and-develop guidance of general manager Ted Thompson, two recent drafts—in 2011 and 2012—have produced only seven players that remain on the team's 90-man roster in mid-August of 2014. As pointed out by Rob Demovsky and Jason Wilde of ESPN, Green Bay's 7-of-18 retention rate ranks as the worst in the NFL over the 2011 and 2012 drafts. The Packers currently retain just four of the 10 players selected in 2011, and three of the eight from 2012, good for a 38.9 percent rate overall. 

In some NFL cities, losing 11 players over the course of just two very recent draft classes might be the beginning of the end, a strain on roster depth too great to overcome. That doesn't appear to be the case in Green Bay, where Thompson has balanced out his draft misses with successes in the undrafted free agent market. 

Jarrett Boykin, Sean Richardson, Don Barclay and Jamari Lattimore were all signed as free agents in either 2011 or 2012 and remain on the roster. M.D. Jennings, Vic So'oto and Dezman Moses also signed as undrafted free agents during the two-year stretch and at some point contributed. 

In the last four years (not counting 2014, obviously), the Packers have kept 13 undrafted free agents on the opening 53-man roster. The total will likely increase by the end of this month.  

It's not a perfect bartering system. There's simply no way to compare the lost value from a missed high pick to the success of a player who went undrafted but then stuck on an NFL roster. But the Packers remain a mostly deep team because of how highly the club values college free agency, and the opportunities given to players regardless of draft status. 

Without this dedication, the Packers may have already started to unravel at the stitching of the roster. 

“In terms of team building, we have put a bunch of work into and pride ourselves a little bit in the fact we take college free agents and made them part of our team and contributors,” Thompson said, via Wilde. “I think all of that is important. I think all of that is relevant. Sometimes you have draft choices and it doesn't work out, and that's my responsibility."

On Wednesday, defensive end Jerel Worthy became the 11th member of the 2011 and 2012 draft classes to depart Green Bay. The Packers traded Worthy, who hadn't practiced with the team all summer due to a back injury, to the New England Patriots in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick. He passed a physical in New England and the trade was completed. 

Worthy joins Alex Green, D.J. Williams, Caleb Schlauderaff, D.J. Smith, Ricky Elmore, Lawrence Guy, Jerron McMillian, Terrell Manning, Andrew Datko and B.J. Coleman as missed Thompson draft picks from 2011 and 2012. Some contributed in minor roles, a selected few were traded away and others flamed out without much of an tangible impact, in Green Bay or elsewhere. 

Elmore, Datko and Coleman are out of the league. A few others are fighting for roster spots at select training camp locations this summer. 

Misses in the later rounds, such as with Elmore, Guy, Datko and Coleman, do not deeply sting a franchise. However, striking out on Worthy, a second-round pick in 2012, does hurt, especially when Thompson moved up to No. 51 overall—giving up a fourth-round in the process—to get him. 

Worthy is the highest of the 2011/12 picks to leave Green Bay. Green, a third-round pick in 2011, previously held the title. First-round picks Derek Sherrod and Nick Perry remain, although neither is or has been an impact player. Second-rounders Randall Cobb and Casey Hayward have been home runs, while Mike Daniels is arguably the best of the fourth-round selections from 2012. 

Thompson has struggled at the the crapshoot in the later rounds. Of the seven players remaining from the two classes, only one—tight end Ryan Taylor—has stuck from the fifth round or lower. The eight others are gone. 

Hitting in free agency has helped balance out the scales. 

Boykin, Richardson, Barclay and Lattimore are far from world-beaters; in fact, only Boykin is certain to contribute anything more than a depth role in 2014. Barclay (knee) is out for the season, but he would have been a backup. Richardson has had a nice summer and Lattimore can start in a pinch. Neither are expected to start this season. Had Richardon been drafted in McMillian's slot, or Lattimore in Manning's, some might view each as bordering on "bust."

However, Thompson and the Packers don't sort their new assets simply by round drafted. Instead, the team provides all first-year players with a chance to make the team in August. The gap between a seventh-round pick and an undrafted player can close in a hurry during camp and the preseason. 

At least three college free agents have made Green Bay's opening 53-man roster every year since 2010. Only two teams have had more undrafted free agents on the Week 1 roster than Green Bay over the last four years. 

Draft misses hurt, especially in the case of Worthy. But Thompson has made amends in college free agency, where he has filled in the cracks that could have otherwise sunk Green Bay's roster depth. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at zachkruse2@gmail.com.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (8) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

lebowski's picture

Still have a solid team, but just think how good our roster would look if we actually HAD hit on a few more high picks. Damn.

COW's picture

And we wonder why the defense sucks.

By the way... Casey Hayward's a "home run"?

Ummmmm............. dude hasn't even locked up the dime spot.

RC Packer Fan's picture

Really what has saved Ted's drafts is his ability to hit on players later in the draft where he missed on players earlier in drafts. Example include hitting on Matt Flynn when Brian Brohm didn't work out. He hit on Mike Daniels when Worthy was a miss.
Also hitting on UDFA' s has helped.

While I understand the premise of the article, I do have to point out that the majority of those players were late round picks. I would like to know in comparison how many other teams 6th and 7th round picks are still with their teams from 2011-2012.

GoldFinger's picture

Boy, this is the perfect article for Cow and that Fubar idiot to chime in. A dream come true article for these two.

Here's my take on this. I don't care how bad those 2011 and 2012 drafts are. It doesn't matter. What matters is their record and the Packers have one of the best teams in the NFL. How Ted gets them there is his business. Hit or miss. More hits than misses. That's how this game is played and nobody does it better than Teddy T.

Just remember, Ted drafted Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers alone is worth giving up 2 years, hell I'll go 3 or 4 years of lousy drafts. No matter what Ted does, I will give him a free pass going forward. He's earned that right just like Favre got a free pass for throwing the most int's in NFL history and not a single fan blinked an eye. I'll be a "Cow" when Green Bay goes back to the 70's talent wise and record wise. Ted has them at the top as usual. No complaints from me.

COW's picture

Yep - the team's pretty good... but imagine what it could have been if TT hadn't crapped himself on 2 straight drafts.

PackerBacker's picture

Wow, I'm a huge TT fan, but this comment is homerism 101. The fact is that those two draft were terrible (38% retention? yikes), made only slightly more palletable by FA college pickups. The fact is Ted had to spend 8 MIl this year on a 34 year old DL who's never played the OLB position because one of the picks that he hasn't cut yet (Perry) is so miserable that he's practicing with the 3rd string.
I agree that it's all about winning, but to say that you'll take 3 or 4 years of bad drafts because of Rodgers is ridiculous. If Ted keeps missing, the Pack will win some games because of Rodgers, but certainly won't get to the SB. You need a solid TEAM to do that. And you can't have a solid team without solid drafts.

GoldFinger's picture

Packerback, did you grow up watching the 70's and 80's teams? They all had bad drafts for the most part. This is why I appreciate the greatness that is Ted Thompson as our GM and hope he is here until he's 100. He picked Aaron Rodgers, who could turn out to be the greatest qb of all time. Yes, that's worth a few people nitpicking on two drafts and he still managed to get some decent players like Hayward, Daniels and Cobb. Remember Mike Ditka giving up an entire draft for Ricky Williams? Looking back, would Ditka give up two drafts for Aaron Rodgers? No brainer, absolutely he would if he could go back in time. He's still be the Saints coach. lol Aaron Rodgers is to the NFL as Michael Jordan was to the NBA and TT drafted him. Yes, Teddy T.

As for money, you talk about TT having to dip into free agency. Who cares? People were screaming for him to do it when he never did and now suddenly people are worried about money when in fact TT has that covered as well having a ton of cap money left. The guy is a pure genius yet people whine about a few players getting cut from two drafts? lol Do you really want to go back to Judge Parins, Tom Braatz or maybe you prefer Michael Sherman running the show? Come on man!!

Please people. You say "if Ted keeps missing". Well apparently he's doing something right despite all these so called misses because the Packers in my opinion have the most talented team in the NFL. How is that "missing". Calm down people. I realize alot Packers fans have become fat, lazy and expectations of a super bowl and hitting on all draft picks are norm now but this is ridiculous.

TT = Free lifetime pass (just like Favre) for winning a super bowl. End of story!! If you don't agree sit thru the 70's and 80's again and see how fun that is. God help this fan base when TT and Aaron Rodgers are gone. That will be the beginning of the end for the Packers organization due to fans who don't understand just how hard it is to be at the very top level year in and year out since TT arrived here in 2005.

Guisado's picture

I credit the coaching staff's ability to polish the UDFA's. Sure Ted and his scouts find many with the potential, but that doesn't mean anything if they don't get coached up. I suspect other teams' scouts find UDFA's with potential as well, but don't commit to them as much as GB does. I like TT, but his misses at the highest levels are troubling.

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