Stop Undervaluing Tight Ends
No matter what, the Packers should draft a tight end in the first round.
Being a sports fan today can feel like floating adrift in a vast sea of statistics. So let’s remember one of the most fundamental pillars of numerical analysis: Correlation is not causation.
Put simply, this means that a relationship between two actions or conditions does not necessarily mean that one causes the other. If you get a sunburn eating an ice cream cone 95 out of 100 times, it does not follow that you got a sunburn because you ate ice cream.
Here’s a more relevant example: In the past 10 Super Bowls, at least one team had an elite tight end in seven of them. And in four out of the last five. In three of the last four, *both* teams had top tight ends. We all saw what Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert did last month.
Does this mean that having an elite tight end is the reason teams get to the dance? No, but correlation matters. And when it comes to modern offenses in football, having a difference-making tight end helps more than is often acknowledged. Even in a sport awash in number crunching, the position is undervalued, and the Packers should draft one in the first round this year no matter how many picks they end up with. Here’s why:
The position is a force mulitiplier — Assigning low positional value to tight ends makes sense if you look at individual production in isolation. But top receiving tight ends open up opportunities for wideouts AND the run game. They stress the defense by enabling more schematic options, especially in the middle of the field. Tight ends that also block well are doubly dangerous, helping to spring running backs and assisting in pass protection. Other positions are force multipliers, too, but tight ends never seem to get the credit.
Physically, top tight ends force mismatches that require defenses to have specialized DBs or linebackers. Essentially, the defense has to play in nickel, which is the new base for most teams. And those defenders have to have size and speed. Without them, it’s easy pickings for diversified offenses.
Elite tight ends are scarce — Unlike running backs and wideouts, top tier tight ends are a rare commodity. Finding a Kelce, Gronk or Kittle is like winning the lottery. Which is also true for quarterbacks, and look how valuable they are. I am not saying TEs are as important as QBs, just pointing out that when you have scarcity, the value should be higher than it otherwise would be, a market inefficiency that creates opportunity. Here’s a thought experiment: If you could have either Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill today, which one would you choose? We know which one the Chiefs chose. The Super Bowl champion chiefs.
Remember, too, that there are tight ends just a notch below the superstars who have significant impact, such as Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, Goedert, T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts. The Rams did fairly well with Tyler Higbee.
The price is right — As mentioned, you pay a lot less for top tight ends than wideouts. For as long as that lasts, that’s a boon for roster building, allowing more spending for other key positions. It’s the MoneyBall strategy. One of the reasons running backs have lower value is their lack of longevity. We’ve seen little evidence of the same problem with tight ends.
The Packers have been suffering the loss of Jermichael Finley ever since his career-ending injury. This year’s draft offers a unique chance to finally solve the problem. The class is deep, with a couple of potentially elite prospects that the Packers can get with their current draft position. And a few others are a notch below. But this is not a time to get cute, which the Packers sometimes do, and pass up a likely difference-maker on the assumption that they can get someone just slightly less worthy in a later round. And then they find themselves paying to move up for the guy that they like and need to snag before someone else does. But who isn’t as good as the top prospect.
Would I be making this argument if Green Bay had a top 5 pick? Or if a legitimate top 5 talent falls to them at 15? No, but those are nearly impossible scenarios. Meanwhile, the wideout class is thin, and the Packers have two solid, developing starters. Adding a WR3 at the top of the draft should not be a higher priority than tight end.
Based on their size/speed and skill sets, the two top TE candidates are Michael Mayer of Norte Dame and Dalton Kincaid of Utah. Mayer had a weak combine, so Kincaid might be the clear top prospect who fits Green Bay, but regardless, the Packers should grab one of them, because they won’t be around later. And if it were me, I’d either bring back Robert Tonyan (he was still not 100% this past season) or take one of the lesser but decent prospects later in the draft. (Sleeper: Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion.) Two tight-end sets are highly effective, and you never know when you might strike gold in a later round. It would hardly be the first time the Packers take multiple swings at a position in the same draft.
This is obviously an easier call if the Packers add a first-round pick via trade. Even if they don’t, tight end should be the pick in round 1. This market inefficiency won’t last forever.
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Jonathan Krim grew up in New York but got hooked on the Packers — and on hating the Cowboys — watching the Ice Bowl as a young child. He blames bouts of unhappiness in his late teens on Dan Devine. A journalist for several decades who now lives in California, he enjoys trafficking in obscure cultural references, lame dad jokes and occasionally preposterous takes. Jonathan is a Packers shareholder, and insists on kraut with his brats. You can follow Jonathan on twitter at @Jkrim.
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Comments (68)
BirdDogUni
March 13, 2023 at 12:09 pm
"No matter what, the Packers should draft a tight end in the first round."
This is almost as stupid a comment as the comments Mark Murphy made in reference to Aaron Rodgers in the past tense over the weekend...
No, we don't have to draft a TE in the 1st round.
No matter what, we should take the best player available, with the highest value to the Packers organization.
If that happens to be a TE, (which I seriously doubt) then we draft him. If it isn't a TE, I won't be surprised.
Coldworld
March 13, 2023 at 12:36 pm
I might have sugar coated it a little BDU, but essentially yes. Thus is true if the position in any year, but also this year specifically. There are maybe a couple that I could argue may be first round value, but in the later second half of it if we traded down. There are a number of good value prospects after that. Of course, then we’ve got to show we know how to use them effectively.
BirdDogUni
March 13, 2023 at 12:44 pm
IDK what we'll get if in fact we do trade AR12, but if we get a 1st round pick, I hope we trade back with one of them.
I keep looking at the Cincinnati Bengals at #28, and if we could trade back to #28 with the Bengals and gain a 2nd round pick and maybe another pick (idk), I would have no problem taking a TE with our pick at 28 or 45, or both...
There is not IMO a TE worth 15 overall, period.
jannesbjornson
March 13, 2023 at 01:11 pm
Second round.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:15 pm
Agreed BD!
Having said that I would not be surprised with the one first round pick, or with one of the first round picks we see a TE, particularly Dalton Kincaid who is really a WR masquerading as a move TE.
Handsback
March 13, 2023 at 09:55 pm
I think Kincaid is the same size as Lazard. We know Lazard can block. So in reality the Packers already have a TE that's masquerading as a WR. I guess I should say they did have one.
I never understood why MLF never developed a specific attack plan having Lazard line up as a WR, but run routes and block like a TE. He could have been a great chess piece.
stockholder
March 13, 2023 at 12:13 pm
No, they shouldn't draft a Te in the first.
They should trade down.
TT could do it. But Gutey isn't TT.
BirdDogUni
March 13, 2023 at 12:47 pm
I gave you a thumbs up sh, because I agree on both counts.
If they want to draft a TE, they should 100 percent trade down.
I also agree Gutey isn't TT! (Thank God!)
Gutey is much more aggressive than TT ever was, IMO.
While I know you meant it as a dig at Gutey, I think it's actually a good thing Gutey isn't TT...
stockholder
March 13, 2023 at 01:44 pm
I gave you one too.
TT protected his picks.
Gutey gives them away.
(Especially the 3rd rd. )
I'm sure you can understand that.
BirdDogUni
March 13, 2023 at 05:54 pm
He has traded away too many 4th round picks and he's missed on too many 3rd round picks, but he's a better overall GM than TT ever was. Even at the beginning of TTs tenure... TT had way more total busts than any GM should've IMO.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:17 pm
Spot on BD!
Thank God Gutey is not TT as Gutey is much better. He actually utilizes FA to supplement the draft. Think how that might have made the difference in all those early years of Rodgers and the possibility of winning SB's?
MooPack
March 13, 2023 at 12:21 pm
(Sleeper: Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion.)
Not anymore. TE needy teams will definitively have to pick him higher than they otherwise might have after that combine performance alleviated any concerns about this injury.
stockholder
March 13, 2023 at 12:25 pm
Actually he wasn't.
Was a Top 100 freak list guy.
It was PFF that under-valued him.
Coldworld
March 13, 2023 at 12:38 pm
PFF is pointing out that he’s not yet lived up to his athletic potential on the field. That’s the wild card. As with most super athletic types, someone will gamble high. They could get a hall of famer or a guy who isn’t really a footballer when it gets tough.
jannesbjornson
March 13, 2023 at 01:13 pm
Not a priority guy.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:23 pm
Zach Kuntz is a very good player & TE. Guy is huge and athletic!
PFF has him rated about #170 but I see him being taken in round 2 or 3. He is smooth and can get down the field with good hands. I would love to see him on the Packers.
mnbadger
March 13, 2023 at 12:28 pm
I'm not going to let the comment " . . . the Pkrs should draft a TE in first round" obscure the general thesis that good tight ends are valuable and good teams have good TE's.
Today, the Packers are an 8-9 team without a good TE, so I say let's get us a good TE during the draft.
And a good Safety, a good Edge rusher, etc.
BPA please while erroring on the side of team need.
GPG!
Thegreatreynoldo
March 14, 2023 at 05:22 am
The underwhelming rate on first round TEs is very high. None of the TE prospects are in the Kyle Pitts tier, and none seem to be worth 15, though perhaps a trade down might work. Even that seems questionable to me.
CheesedDeadHead
March 13, 2023 at 12:30 pm
"Michael Mayer of Penn State"
Uhhh, you thinking of another Michael Mayer and not the one from Notre Dame?
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:25 pm
CDH,
Will be very interesting to me to see where Mayer goes in the draft. There are a lot of TE's who I would be very comfortable with that are not named Mayer. Many of them in rounds 2 & 3. Personally, I would pass on Mayer in round 1 and go a different direction.
CheesedDeadHead
March 13, 2023 at 03:44 pm
I haven't seen enough film on Mayer, but I just get the Trey McBride vibe from him and McBride went #55 last year so I do think 1st round is an overdraft on Mayer. What do I know, I thought Devonte Wyatt was going to be a beast...
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 04:09 pm
Wyatt may still be a beast! This is a big offseason for him to get bigger & stronger.
BA4Packers
March 13, 2023 at 12:34 pm
This is silliness.
BPA!
dobber
March 13, 2023 at 12:47 pm
"Stop Undervaluing Tight Ends"
I don't think the Packers undervalue TEs. They use TEs and multiple TE sets more than most teams. The issue is HOW they use their TEs, and blocking is an important part of why the Packers tend to give TEs more snaps than most teams.
"No matter what, the Packers should draft a tight end in the first round. "
Now you've lost me...and your argument doesn't hold.
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 01:09 pm
1. BPA, even if it’s a CB or QB. MAYBE not RB, but I wouldn’t be upset if they did—in fact, I’d respect them MORE.
2. None of this year’s TEs should be picked at #15
3. I’d pick Darnell Washington before Mayer or Kincaid
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:30 pm
PEO,
Take a look at Zach Kuntz's highlights and let me know your thoughts. Do you take Washington with your #1 because that is where you will need to draft him if you want him, or do you take say Kuntz, or Musgrave in round 2? There are a few others as well. I just do not see Mayer being a #15 when several other TE's as good or better and available in round 2.
I see Dalton Kincaid as a whole different type of TE. As a receiving move tight end who can get down the middle and make tough catches he really would be a game changer in terms of softening the defenses up where they are not bracketing Watson like they were in the last Detroit game. Kincaid would really make a huge difference on offense. Even if they went with Kincaid I'd still love to see a guy like Kuntz selected. Guy is amazing!
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 03:51 pm
A few months ago, I was the guy banging the drum for Kincaid; I’d still love to get him in the second, but he’s almost 24, and has had a few problems with injuries.
I didn’t think Washington was agile and flexible enough as a receiver, but then the combine happened, and I saw just how athletic he really is.
I love Kuntz, but I think he’s going in the early third round, and I’m not ready to pay a second in this draft for a project.
I’d snap him up in the fifth if he was there; the third and fourth would depend on who else was available.
I’m not a Musgrave fan, fifth at earliest. I actually think he’s going to be a bust. Kuntz is a similar athlete, but a WAY better football player.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:59 pm
PEO,
I love Musgrave as an athlete but many of you (Jannes) keep talking about his injury history, so maybe there is something there. I don't think Kuntz is a project and is the real deal. I love Washington but in filling team needs Kuntz may be a better value than Washington, particularly if he can be had as you say in early round 3. While the Packers would need to move up in round 3 then to get him they would be able to focus on other needs in rounds 1 & 2.
jannesbjornson
March 13, 2023 at 04:59 pm
Kraft.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 05:00 pm
J,
I do like Kraft! He looks like a big boned guy but he can move.
Turophile
March 13, 2023 at 01:49 pm
Sure the Packers have several needs, but I'm rooting for Darnell Washington and Dalton Kincaid in rounds one and two, to cover all the Packers tight end needs for (hopefully) several years. (You might still get Washington with a little trade back, as well).
That gives us the super athletic, mainly pass-catching Kincaid to go with Washington, who is Marcedes Lewis replacement (and Washington can run a 4.6, even at his size).
greengold
March 13, 2023 at 02:02 pm
Turo!!!!! That's an exciting pair of early additions for the Packers this April. Makes a lot of sense too, knowing both are prime talents, and would be nearly unstoppable combined with the skill players GB has.
TE and OT historically have the lowest R1 bust rates in the NFL Draft.
We need two TE anyway. I'd say we need two EDGE, at least one OT and one S. If they play this right, they could have all of that addressed before Day 3.
It wouldn't have to play out that way either, as value DL are best found in R4. NFL teams have more success drafting quality DL starters in R4 than in any other round.
There's a lot of wiggle for the Packers Days 1 & 2 with regards to which positions they choose to address.
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 03:59 pm
I’d be pretty pumped if they took Washington and Kincaid. Love Kuntz and LaPorta too. Any combo of two from that group would be awesome. However, I’d pick a good number two WR prospect before a second TE. I just don’t have faith in Doubs. I’d love to add Jahmyr Gibbs, AT Perry, Jonathan Mingo, etc. before a TE#2.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:32 pm
T,
I'd be totally cool with that and have been thinking a lot of those two TE's. Somewhere in the mix is also a Luke Musgrave, and Zach Kuntz. Zach may even be better than Washington if possible, or at least as good. Zach seems to be bigger, faster, and smoother down the field. However, how Kuntz matches up as a blocking TE likely not as good because this is Washington's strength.
Lphill
March 13, 2023 at 01:50 pm
Mayer is Notre Dame.
dblbogey
March 13, 2023 at 03:11 pm
Oscar Mayer is bologna.
LambeauPlain
March 13, 2023 at 02:10 pm
Now being reported done deal as Jets repeat history with the Packers.
Hope it includes a 1st and I would hope Gutey trades one for a lower 1st and another second.
Two firsts and two seconds will fill holes/key depth at S, Edge, OL, TE and/or BAP should they drop in the first two rounds.
dblbogey
March 13, 2023 at 03:14 pm
Jet's pick is 13. having 13 and 15 is a great opportunity to add two high quality players. Skoronski would be a nice start. You can pick up one of the 5 highly regarded TE prospects in Rd, 2, pick #45 I believe.
Turophile
March 14, 2023 at 08:01 am
I just can't see the Jets giving up this years #13 pick. Next years first, maybe, this years second, likely..................but I think they do everything to keep #13.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 03:52 pm
Lambeau,
Where are you seeing this? I don't see anywhere saying a deal is done.
Always depends on who is sitting there and available before deciding to trade down in round 1. If the BPA is sitting there and he is at your biggest need position there is no way you can move down. Having said that should the Packers have #13 & #15 I'd be very open to the possibility of trading the #15 back until just before the Vikings draft pick at #23.
If reports are true that the Vikings may trade/cut their running back, Cook you can be pretty sure they are going to draft Bijan, or Jahmyr Gibbs. My craziest round 1 move in this scenario would be to take BPA at #13, and trade back to the Chargers at #21, or Baltimore at #22 and take Bijan Robinson, while picking up a late 2nd or 3rd round pick. I know no one will agree with me on this move but Bijan is rated at the #3 to #5 best player in the draft, but because he is a RB he will fall. What I say to those naysayers is just watch this guy's highlights. Unbelievable! Tell me he doesn't look like Barry Sanders Jr with great receiving hands. I'd play Bijan at both RB and the slot. Bijan has amazing hands and boy can he juke and get through traffic. Packers will never be this creative but boy this guy is a player and would really revolutionize the Packers offense if used proactively. Place him in the slot with AJ in the backfield. Jet sweeps and receiver out of the backfield. This type of creativity and taking such a talented player and utilizing him in such a way would be pretty amazing. Go ahead my fellow draftniks and down vote me on this but please.....only after watching Bijan's highlight videos. Try visualizing him in such a dual role and then tell me he wouldn't be great at what I propose.
LambeauPlain
March 13, 2023 at 04:46 pm
Trey Wingo says it is done. Then a few Jets players are welcoming Rodgers to the team. I am not saying it is done...this is Rodgers after all.
But players do have their own internal team network and may be more credible than the talking heads of the football media. IDK.
I do see Rodger's image among NFL fans, Jet fans especially, is very poor. He is being ridiculed and laughed at. I wish he would make a decision and move on with professionalism and enjoy a good year or two before he hangs up the cleats.
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 04:03 pm
No downvote from me; KnockSnot, Bijan is the best RB prospect , in my opinion, in…well, forever. People keep saying he will drop, but I’m not so sure. My biggest worry, is I think the Bears might pick him— he’d be an excellent choice for them.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 04:13 pm
PEO,
Have you seen his receiving ability? Am I wrong to see the Packers use this guy in a dual threat capability. Play him in slot and rotate him with AJ at RB. Talk about killing two birds with one stone while getting one of the best players in the draft with your second pick in round 1. This is the type of creativity I feel the FO lack.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 04:20 pm
Conventional thinkers STOP reading right here!
Creative and forward thinkers continue reading....
Let's play this out a little.....you draft Darnell Washington with one of your first round picks for a true in-line blocking TE, but you draft Bijan as your slot WR who also rotates with AJ at RB. If you look at Bijan as a slot WR who is physical and can take hard hits but who can also play RB I don't know how the Packers do not consider Bijan in this role. Has great hands but is there anyone outside of Zay Flowers who can move & juke like Bijan? WOWWWWWWWW!!!
Draft Edge & CB (move Rasul to safety) in round 2.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 04:48 pm
A little research showed Bijan was the best player in college football last year in forcing missed tackles with 104. Not only that...but the 104 was the best in college football all-time!
I think you might be right PEO....Bijan might need to be drafted at #15 to have a shot at him. He is that good!
Coldworld
March 13, 2023 at 04:48 pm
I can pass on Bijan. I think he will be good, but I don’t think he helps us much now. We’ve just extended Jones and we have a guy like Goodson that I think could help in the passing game. We need other positions much more. I’d be happy with Washington certainly.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 04:52 pm
CW,
Have AJ under contract for one more year only and at his age he should not be resigned. The Pack could use a very good slot WR. I look at it do you need a Dalton Kincaid at TE to get down the field, or do you take an exceptional 3 down player vs a player like Kincaid who might have to come out on 3rd and two. Just my thoughts!
MooPack
March 13, 2023 at 07:14 pm
What if we played this out in another way? What if the Packers are sitting at #13 (JETS) and #15 (Packers) and Bijan Robinson is there for the picking? Would the Packers make a draft day trade of Aaron Jones? He's restructured and trade attractive. What would a team give up for him? Rookie RBs start faster than most other offense positions and can do very well in their first year. I too Believe Bijan is a special talent. I think he is the top offensive talent in the draft and probably the best RB in a number of years. Do you pass on that talent for need? Would you trade Aaron Jones? For say, a second? Is a third worth it (cursed round as it is)? With two possible 1st rounders could you take that BPA talent with one and something more needy with the other and have another draft pick from a AJones trade?
No trick questions here, just curious what everyone thinks of possible scenarios.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 11:24 pm
Moo,
Most won't respond!
Glad you see Bijans talent and value.
Good question but I don't think most teams would make that trade as RB's are believed to be easy to acquire. I think the best approach would be to keep AJ as RB1, and put Bijan in slot with occassional rotation at RB.
Pipe dream but I do consider Bijan that good. A game changer! With creativity the Pack could use him in so many ways.
LambeauPlain
March 13, 2023 at 04:52 pm
Actually, very creative idea and is supposedly how the Illusion of Complexity MLF talks about (but has rarely been used the last few years) ....expand the use of the RBs.
Whenever AJ has the ball, positive plays usually result. This kid could multiply this method to attack a D.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 04:59 pm
I am going to hate seeing this guy in the NFC North unless on the Packers. Talk about fun to watch!
Resign Big Dog, draft Dalton Kincaid & Bijan Robinson (slot WR & RB) and Wowser....now we are talking a fun & explosive offense in 2023.
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 06:08 pm
Perhaps you’ve seen one of my many posts about how I would draft Jahmyr Gibbs in the second round (if he was still there) to do exactly what you’re talking about. He’s an even more perfect RB-who-should-play-slot-WR guy.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 06:17 pm
PEO, I thought about him but he is mostly a fast straight line runner who is undersized. Doesn't have the size, or the ability to cut and weave thru traffic let alone take a beating like Bijan. There is a very good YouTube video that points out the differences between Bijan and Jahmyr. His weight is sufficiently below the average weight of an NFL RB. Bijan is a top 5 player where Jahmr 2nd tiered. Don't see Jahmyr as a 200 - 250 carry/touch RB.
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 08:06 pm
Undersized for every down, yes, that’s why he’s great for slot/gadget, but “straight line?” No way! Gibbs is even more elusive than Robinson! He doesn’t break tackles like Bijan, but he’s as elusive as anyone in this draft. I like getting Gibbs at 45, though I don’t expect him to last that long.
Vachio
March 13, 2023 at 05:40 pm
I have a feeling that because the TE class this year is so deep that there won't be many, if any, drafted in the first round. I expect teams are going to overdraft the positions that aren't stacked and get their TE later. Sweet spot is going to be the top half of the 2nd round, IMO. Personally, I want to see them take Darnell Washington high (early 2nd) and Payne Durham late (like 5th or 6th). Our 2 TE sets would be like having an extra set of tackles who can run and catch. It would be a thing of beauty to behold.
ricky
March 13, 2023 at 05:43 pm
Kelce, third round pick. Gronkowski, second round. Kittle, fifth round. And it's not as if the Packers haven't tried to find decent TE's. They just haven't hit on anybody. For example, I had high hopes for Sternberger (like Kelce, a third round pick), who was a total bust. Will DeGuara be the guy? So far, doesn't look like it. Will Tonyan return to form? Still an unknown. Sometimes, it's just luck (good or bad) that rewards or punishes a team for a certain selection.
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 06:12 pm
Interestingly, Sternberger was a mediocre RAS guy, as was Amari Rodgers. Gute didn’t stick to his usual approach, and got burned by both of those.
I suspect those busts will make Gute even more of a RAS-drafter.
jannesbjornson
March 13, 2023 at 08:46 pm
Sternberger vs McLaurin, one of the most dynamic WRs in college football, you make the call.
PhantomII
March 13, 2023 at 08:35 pm
So, in retro was Kelce a RD 1 pick or Gronk? I'll answer for you, yes...and like most really good players...They were poorly rated by teams boards because most raters are relatively poor at their task at hand. We see it every year on many players, that's why we have draft busts and players excel right out of the gate. That's the problem with BPA..Their board is not accurate to the talent...EVER.
jannesbjornson
March 13, 2023 at 08:48 pm
Gronk was on everybody's radar. Some were reluctant to pull the trigger, worried about his knee. Big Bad Bill was salivating watching the "experts" pass him down the line. Then he goes with Hernadez and two rookie TEs make his offense thrive. Watch the Film, it doesn't lie.
PhantomII
March 13, 2023 at 09:16 pm
I like Washington...also LaPorta from Iowa seemed real smooth, but not close to the biggest of them. A real good crop....I think it gets hit like a swarm of piranha and the cream of the crop picked by mid round 2. It's an exceptional group and they're gonna get hit hard by teams. I expect a lot of moving around upper round 2 by teams that want to compete. We will see what GB wants to do. I'd like 2 good WR and a top 3 TE by mid round. We have more needs but if we get the offense going for Love....the easier it will be. Hope we end up with total of 2-1's and 2-2's . Safety is a biggie also.
golfpacker1
March 13, 2023 at 05:58 pm
First off, I am a firm believer in trading back and get more picks or "swings of the bat." Yes we would have our pick of the 3 best tight ends in the draft @ 15, but man I hate to draft one that high and not have the opportunity to trade back for more draft capitol. We very likely could trade back to late 1st round and still get one of the big 3 TEs. I think Washington or Kinkaid are #1 @ 1a. I too was surprised Mayer underperformed like he did at the combine. It really shouldn't hurt him because he had great production at a big school but my Hawkeye Laporta looks just as good I think and we had the worst QB in college football last year. As far as the old standby "draft the best player available", I am not a fan. Draft the best player at a position of need if you like him and overdraft him if his position group is not deep. What position does everyone think would make the biggest difference to our team rather than best player available. I honestly think TE might be it. In basketball if you play 5 guys and 1 or 2 can't shoot from the outside, nobody guards them. Its important to have a good blocking TE but if you never throw to them the defense plays 11 on 10. Washington could be a real gamechanger @ TE I think and might be worth #15 being a great blocker and really underrated catcher.
PackEyedOptimist
March 13, 2023 at 06:20 pm
I’ve always agreed with Ron Wolf’s theory about BAP: (he mentioned it during a radio interview I was listening to).
He said “Pick the best player available who you think is better than whoever is on your roster.”
So if you have QB Tanner McKee rated higher than anyone else available at pick 45, and you think he’s better than Love’s current backup, you draft him, even if you feel you need a safety more.
Every NFL player is decent. We overvalue and over criticize positions as fans. You never know when an injury or two is going to decimate your depth. Pick the BPA.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 13, 2023 at 06:55 pm
Agree PEO!
Even with a QB! But wait...isn't Zach Wilson coming over? I cannot possibly understand how he can stay in NJ with his own players openly recruiting AR. Zach would benefit from small media coverage and play behind Love and re-establish confidence. Want draft capital but Pack needs a back up QB & Zach might come cheap.
PackEyedOptimist
March 14, 2023 at 04:54 am
I'd love to pick up Wilson as part of the trade, but it seems more likely that the Jets would want to groom him behind Rodgers, since they will need his replacement in just a couple years, and they will want a good backup in the meantime if they have Super Bowl aspirations.
As the second overall pick just two years ago, Wilson also would be an expensive backup.
Packman60
March 13, 2023 at 07:53 pm
While I agree Tight End needs to be a priority.It doesn't require a 1st round pick this year as there's exceptional depth in that position. I believe they can get a top notch Tight end picking in the 2nd round. They should use their 1st rounder for the BPA. This is a very strong edge group and while WR isn't as strong as other years they could potentially grab their choice of wideouts. I think JSN would be an elite slot receiver for the Packers. He was Ohio State's #1 2 years ago despite the other 2 guys being #1 picks last year. He would compliment Watson and Dobbs
PhantomII
March 13, 2023 at 08:31 pm
The top 10 TE's will be snapped up by mid round 2.
mrtundra
March 14, 2023 at 10:55 am
There are plenty of highly regarded TEs in this draft. No need to grab one in the 1st round. 2nd round, yes, but not the first. I'd look at DB, Edge, OL or BPA, in the 1st round, as we need them as much as a TE.