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Statistical Projections for Packers Rookies

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Statistical Projections for Packers Rookies

Before the NFL Draft we had Paul Bessire on our morning talk show Railbird Central for an interview. Now that the Draft is over, the time is appropriate to re-visit his unique statistical projections for players selected by the Packers.

The projections from Bessire at PredictionMachine.com are distinctive because they're objectively based on mathematical formula.

According to PredictionMachine.com: "To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player's NFL team (in this case an average NFL team) and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general."

What Bessire provides is some outside-the-box thinking but not without basis.

Packers fans will be happy to hear, for example, that Vanderbilt's Casey Hayward is Bessire's No.1 ranked cornerback in this year's Draft class. Yup, ahead of the likes of Morris Claiborne and Dre Kirkpatrick.

The following are the projected 2012 statistics for each new Packers player assuming they start all 16 games for an average NFL team, which is obviously unrealistic to expect to actually happen for most rookies but is used as a method of comparison.

  • USC's Nick Perry (the No. 2 rated defensive end by PredictionMachine.com)––40.7 tackles, 9.7 TFL, 7.7 sacks
  • Michigan State's Jerel Worthy (the No. 4 rated defensive tackle)––24.4 tackles, 7.8 TFL, 3.6 sacks, 0.3 FF, 1.0 blocked kicks
  • Vanderbilt's Casey Hayward (the No. 1 rated cornerback)––64.9 tackles, 3.6 TFL, 0.1 sacks, 6.6 INTs, 13.6 PBUs
  • Iowa's Mike Daniels (the No. 9 rated defensive tackle)––28.9 tackles, 6.2 TFL, 4.6 sacks, 0.3 FF
  • N.C. State's Terrell Manning (the No. 6 rated outside linebacker)––65.5 tackles, 9.4 TFL, 4.6 sacks
  • Tennessee-Chattanooga's B.J. Coleman (the No. 16 rated quarterback)––246.9 of 491.6 for 2,629 yards (50.2%), 15.6 TDs, 20.6 INTs, 5.3 YPA
  • Vanderbilt's Sean Richardson (the No. 14 rated safety)––72.1 tackles, 3.6 TFL, 1.2 sacks, 1.2 sacks, 1.3 INTs, 3.4 PBUs

Jerron McMillian was not included in the rankings.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (18) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Don Hutson's picture

So I guess we don't start Coleman.

markinmontana's picture

Of course not. The Nick Hill era has begun.

Chip Soup's picture

This is kind of interesting. It would be cool to see an analysis of how Hayward ended up #1 in CB ranking. Pack has 3 in the top 30 overall so I hope this is right!

John's picture

What about our safety from Maine?

Brian Carriveau's picture

He was not included, as I noted.

ebongreen's picture

I'd be interested in hearing where the rankings sat comparable players, such as Reyes and Still relative to Worthy, and Irvin and Curry relative to Perry.

chicago hooligan's picture

Football Outsiders' "SackSEER" also likes Nick Perry, projecting 28 sacks in his first 5 years.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

Production. Sweet.

GBP 4 LIFE

Oppy's picture

While this is "neat", let's see this guy put his mathematical equations to the test:

Run his simulation on the first 64 players drafted.... in the 2010 draft.

Then, compare the results to actual data.

You could even take the "real world" results, and use a percentage of that to reflect how often the players were truly on the field.

It would be interesting to see how they stack up to the real production.

PackersRS's picture

You can't compare his work because he projects those players starting 16 games in what's supposed to be an average team.

Just too many variables to predict anything. Even using algorithms or what have you, before you see how that guy plays in the NFL and how his team will use him? it's a guess.

Oppy's picture

Kinda exactly my point.

It seems like a waste of time to project things when you already know you can't produce anywhere near accurate numbers.

It's playing with numbers and math for amusement, there is no usefulness to be found in it.

Tracker's picture

So you're saying... the internet is for amusement and there is no usefulness to be found in it... you don't say!

Al's picture

what you are refering to is evidence-based practice, or EBP. Perhaps I will use this topic for my next research paper.

Don Hutson's picture

Reminds me of the old Rocky and Bullwinkle Show,"Watch me pull a rabit out of my hat. Presto, chango....... No doubt about it - I've gotta get a new hat!"

It looks like TT and crew drafted good potential quality. Now coaching, education, motivation, integration, scheme, and execution all need to intersect to realize that potential.

New cow smell's picture

Wrong safety.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

UDFA we snagged.

JACK's picture

GOOD DRAFT NEED A FULL BACK NOW TO GET RUSHES BACK UP AGAIN

Ricky Glasgow's picture

I have never been happier with a draft class. Great job by all scouts, TT, and McCarthy. Go Pack Go

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