Before the NFL Draft we had Paul Bessire on our morning talk show Railbird Central for an interview. Now that the Draft is over, the time is appropriate to re-visit his unique statistical projections for players selected by the Packers.
The projections from Bessire at PredictionMachine.com are distinctive because they’re objectively based on mathematical formula.
According to PredictionMachine.com: “To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player’s NFL team (in this case an average NFL team) and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general.”
What Bessire provides is some outside-the-box thinking but not without basis.
Packers fans will be happy to hear, for example, that Vanderbilt’s Casey Hayward is Bessire’s No.1 ranked cornerback in this year’s Draft class. Yup, ahead of the likes of Morris Claiborne and Dre Kirkpatrick.
The following are the projected 2012 statistics for each new Packers player assuming they start all 16 games for an average NFL team, which is obviously unrealistic to expect to actually happen for most rookies but is used as a method of comparison.
- USC’s Nick Perry (the No. 2 rated defensive end by PredictionMachine.com)––40.7 tackles, 9.7 TFL, 7.7 sacks
- Michigan State’s Jerel Worthy (the No. 4 rated defensive tackle)––24.4 tackles, 7.8 TFL, 3.6 sacks, 0.3 FF, 1.0 blocked kicks
- Vanderbilt’s Casey Hayward (the No. 1 rated cornerback)––64.9 tackles, 3.6 TFL, 0.1 sacks, 6.6 INTs, 13.6 PBUs
- Iowa’s Mike Daniels (the No. 9 rated defensive tackle)––28.9 tackles, 6.2 TFL, 4.6 sacks, 0.3 FF
- N.C. State’s Terrell Manning (the No. 6 rated outside linebacker)––65.5 tackles, 9.4 TFL, 4.6 sacks
- Tennessee-Chattanooga’s B.J. Coleman (the No. 16 rated quarterback)––246.9 of 491.6 for 2,629 yards (50.2%), 15.6 TDs, 20.6 INTs, 5.3 YPA
- Vanderbilt’s Sean Richardson (the No. 14 rated safety)––72.1 tackles, 3.6 TFL, 1.2 sacks, 1.2 sacks, 1.3 INTs, 3.4 PBUs
Jerron McMillian was not included in the rankings.