Pre-Order The Pro Football Draft Preview Today!!

Seeing the Draft Through Ted Thompson’s Eyes, Part 2: Defense

Yesterday, we sorted through Ted Thompson’s track record to find glimpses of how he is likely to view the Packers’ draft needs on the offensive side of the ball. 

Yesterday, we sorted through Ted Thompson’s track record to find glimpses of how he is likely to view the Packers’ draft needs on the offensive side of the ball.  We identified the key traits that Thompson looks for in every draft prospect, the types of guys he is likely hoping to find in this year’s draft specifically, and some prospects who may fit the bill for Thompson this year.

Today we turn to the defensive side of the ball, beginning with the position that will tempt Thompson the most in the early rounds:  the defensive line.

Packers’ Draft Preview by Position:  Defense

Defensive Linemen

For the last two years, the Packers’ defensive line rotation has been held together with Mike Daniels and a patchwork of castoffs (Letroy Guion, Bruce Gaston), damaged goods (B.J. Raji) and late-round or undrafted pile pushers on rookie contracts (Josh Boyd, Mike Pennel).  It’s not that Thompson hasn’t tried to solve his DL problems in the draft—he’s just had a string of misses.  In the last four drafts, he’s spent a first-rounder on Datone Jones (who proved too small to hold up at end), a second-rounder on Jerel Worthy (who busted), and a third-rounder on Khyri Thornton (who busted).  He tried in the later rounds of those drafts, too, but only Daniels—a fourth-rounder in 2012—has developed into a significant contributor on the line.

While the Packers’ 3-4 defense can survive without playmakers along the line, Thompson is surely eager to inject some high-ceiling defensive line talent into the roster.  He hates spending draft picks on pure run stuffers; he wants guys with “juice,” a term the Packers’ staff used to explain trading up for Jerel Worthy in their 2012 post-draft press conference.  (Last year’s selection of Christian Ringo, another undersized DT with pass-rush ability, came with a similar explanation.)  Even when he took nose tackle B.J. Raji at no. 9 overall, Thompson explained the pick by emphasizing Raji’s explosiveness and the pass-rush traits he displayed at Boston College.

With Raji in tentative retirement, the roster urgently needs some more big bodies on the line.  It doesn’t matter where they play; the Packers’ three line positions are fairly interchangeable.  But in Thompson’s mind, any new additions in the draft need some hint of “juice” and the size to hold up against the run.  Thompson has twice taken DE’s in the early rounds (Jones and Mike Neal) who lacked the bulk to hold up against the run and later switched to outside linebacker.  He’ll be wary of making that mistake again.

There’s good news for Thompson:  this is the right year to pick up an athletic big guy on the defensive line.  This draft offers a grab-bag of first-round talents who combine elite athleticism and big-time college production along the line, and Thompson may well be planning to pluck his favorite among those who fall to the Packers at 27.  Based on recent mock drafts, we can assume that DeForest Buckner of Oregon will be long gone.  Sheldon Rankins of Louisville—whose scouting report suggests a Mike Daniels clone—will probably be gone too, as will Alabama earth-mover Jarran Reed.  Who might be next in line for the Packers?

Andrew Billings, Baylor.  Billings has nose-tackle size (6’1”, 311) and strength (he set Texas high-school power-lifting records), and—unlike many guys with his physical dimensions—he translated those gifts into high-level production at the college level.  Billings was co-defensive player of the year last year in the Big 12, using his athleticism (sub-5.0 40 yard dash) to wreak havoc in opposing backfields with 15 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.  He’s only 20 years old, so he may have more room to grow, and he’ll have a strong locker room leader to follow in Mike Daniels.  If Billings is on the board at 27, Thompson can nab him and instantly feel better about the future of the Packers’ D-line, both short- and long-term.

Kenny Clark, UCLA.  Kenny Clark has a comparable scouting grade to Billings, and he’s equally capable of assuming the role of the Packers’ nose-tackle of the future.  He has plenty of size to hold up on the interior (6’3”, 315), got better each year at UCLA, and became a disruptive force last year for the Bruins (11 tackles for loss, six sacks, all-conference honors).  Reports on his athleticism and power are less glowing than those of Billings, but Clark’s wrestling background will give Thompson comfort that he can win leverage and agility contests in the trenches. 

Chris Jones, Mississippi State.  If Thompson prefers a 3-4 end to a nose tackle, Chris Jones comes right out of central casting.  He has a huge frame to bother passing lanes (6’6”) and enough bulk to hold up against the run (310), and he stuck his nose into SEC backfields last year for 7.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.  He’s by no means a finished product—Jones was a late bloomer in high school, an early entrant in the NFL this year, and needs technique work and NFL conditioning.  If the Packers are satisfied that late development (and not work ethic problems) are to blame for Jones’ failure to consistently dominate the way he sometimes showed he could, then Jones might be on Thompson’s radar on round one.  He will definitely be in the discussion if he slips to the Packers’ pick at the end of the second round.

Bronson Kaufusi, Brigham Young.  Kaufusi is slightly smaller than Jones, but he still possesses a legitimate 3-4 DE frame (6’6”, 285) and athleticism, with a 40-yard dash in the 4.85 range.  He can also join Thompson’s growing collection of former college basketball players, as he played power forward for the Cougars as an underclassman.  Kaufusi may not be as explosive as Jones or have anywhere close to his ceiling, but his body of work suggests he could force himself into the rotation immediately as a 3-4 end with the chance to work himself into a starting role.  He’s older than most prospects due a Mormon mission, but Thompson won’t care; he’d rather get more of Kaufusi’s prime years while he’s on a cheap third-round rookie contract, anyway.

Others under consideration:  The draft is full of other early- and middle-round options who fit the Packers’ scheme and tastes.  Vernon Butler of Louisiana Tech has the size (6’4”, 323) and athleticism to play anywhere along the line, and he impressed at the Senior Bowl.  Scouts love his motor—a quality at the forefront of Thompson’s mind after the Khyri Thornton disaster.  Like Billings, Jones, and Clark, Butler stands a decent chance of being on the board when the Packers pick at 27, but there’s little likelihood he drops to their second pick at 57.  Penn State’s Austin Johnson stands a slightly better chance of being there at 57.  Another high-school basketball standout with the size to play anywhere on the line (6’4”, 314), Johnson can plug holes, keep his motor running, and get into the backfield (15 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks last year)—though reports say he projects as more of a run-stuffer than pass-rushing threat in the NFL.  Northwestern’s Dean Lowry might catch Thompson’s eye in the middle rounds.  He’s not an explosive pass rusher—you don’t typically find 6’6”, 296-pound explosive pass rushers in the middle rounds—but he’s built for playing 3-4 end, he had excellent production against Big 10 linemen, and he’s a good bet to meet his ceiling as a valuable member of an NFL DL rotation.  In the late rounds, Thompson might be intrigued by David Onyemata, a green-as-grass physical freak from Canada, and Kayembe Matangulu, a rugby player in his native Kenya who did not pick up football until his freshman year at Western Carolina.  He won’t count on either to break into the rotation this year, but they might be projects to stash on the practice squad.

*                 *                 *

 

Inside Linebackers

          Ted Thompson does not place significant value on the inside linebacker position.  No pattern in Ted Thompson’s draft record is clearer than this one.  Despite seeing subpar inside linebacker performance on the field throughout his tenure, Thompson has never drafted an inside linebacker earlier than the third round.  (A.J. Hawk was drafted to be a will linebacker in Bob Sanders’ 4-3 scheme.)  Thompson is comfortable living with mediocrity at the inside linebacker position, and the Packers have more or less gotten away with it—in part due to the increased use of sub packages that take linebackers off the field.

          That said, Thompson knows the position needs attention.  The coaches say that Clay Matthews is moving back to outside linebacker once and for all, leaving the Packers with thumper Sam Barrington coming off injury, undersized passing-down specialist Joe Thomas, and Jake Ryan, last year’s fourth-round pick.  (We don’t know what to make of Carl Bradford, who’s enjoyed a two-year redshirt while converting from outside to inside linebacker.)  There’s playing time to be had for just about any style of inside linebacker Thompson wants to add.  In the first round alone, Thompson might have the opportunity to choose between an old-school run stuffer like Alabama’s Reggie Ragland and a sleek, new-age speedster like Ohio State’s Darron Lee.

          But he probably won’t end up choosing between Ragland and Lee—not at the first-round price tag those guys carry.  Thompson had his pick of inside linebackers in the first round last year, and he passed on them all to take Demarious Randall—thus boosting the long-term security of a position he deems far more important.  If Thompson goes defense in round one, he’ll probably prefer someone from the rare crop of big, athletic linemen available this year.  They’re much harder to find, and they’re much more expensive to add in free agency if you miss your chance to grab one in the draft.

          Thompson could go any direction with an inside linebacker in the middle rounds of the draft, but there are hints that he might have a passing-down specialist in mind.  After cutting Joe Thomas at the end of camp last year, the Packers rushed him back from the Cowboys’ practice squad and into their lineup in late September—suggesting they quickly recognized their mistake in leaving themselves without a legitimate coverage linebacker on the roster.  Thomas hasn’t shown he is the long-term answer in that role, and Thompson will probably be looking for an upgrade in this draft.  Here are a couple of guys who could provide that upgrade, and are likely to be high on the Packers’ board:

          Deion Jones, LSU.  The second-round price tag might take Thompson out of his comfort zone for inside linebackers, but Jones has the playmaking promise to justify it.  He possesses exactly the skill set the Packers are missing from their linebackers:  namely, he can run and cover like a safety (4.6).  He’s not built much bigger than a safety (6’1”, 222), either, but that didn’t stop him from terrorizing SEC backs and lineman last year to the tune of 100 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, five sacks, and Butkus Award finalist honors.  Jones didn’t break out (or even start) until his final year at LSU, but his status as team captain gives Thompson some reason to believe that work ethic isn’t to blame for Jones’s failure to break through earlier.  And while scouts say he profiles best as a 4-3 outside linebacker, it doesn’t much matter to Thompson:  he wouldn’t be drafting Jones for what he can or can’t do in the Packers’ base defense (which they play less than half the time), but rather to cover receiving targets and provide an occasional blitz threat from the Packers’ sub packages.  Jones appears to be the perfect man for that task, if Thompson is willing to pay the price for him.

          Jatavis Brown, Akron.  The 2014 MAC defensive player of the year (Quentin Rollins) fit the Packers’ needs quite nicely; so does the guy who won the award in 2015.  If Thompson can’t stomach the price tag for Jones, Akron’s Jatavis Brown offers a similar set of skills at a discount.  (Mock drafts put him in the third- to fifth-round range.)  Brown comes ready-made to defend against the NFL passing game, with blazing speed (4.45), positive reviews of his coverage skills, and the ability to be a playmaker on blitzes (20 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, and four forced fumbles last year).  Brown’s college coaches give the press rave reviews on his work ethic and leadership, too.  Like Jones, Brown is undersized for every-down work (5’11”, 227), but that’s not why Thompson would draft him.  Brown has every skill he needs to excel as a passing-down specialist, and he’s someone Dom Capers could put to use from day one.    

          Others under consideration:  Thompson is probably less interested in adding a run stuffer with coverage limitations.  But reporters have implied that Thompson would have taken Chris Borland if he’d lasted eight more picks in the 2014 third round (the Packers wound up with Khyri Thornton instead).  That interest in Borland suggests that Thompson might be open to drafting instinctive tackling machines who can be leaders on defense, even if they have coverage limitations, so long as it only costs him a mid-round pick.  There are plenty of those guys to choose from in the middle rounds this year, all of whom look like plug-and-play options on early downs and special teams.  Arizona’s Scooby Wright III had an All-American year in 2014 before losing most of 2015 to injuries, first to his lateral meniscus and then to his foot.  Like Borland, he’s a little on the small side for a run-stuffer (6’0”, 240), but Borland’s early success despite his limitations makes it more believable that Wright can follow suit.  West Virginia’s Nick Kwiatkowski lacks Wright’s instincts or track record of dominance, but he has a little more size, a little more athleticism, and some promise in coverage (10 passes defensed last year).  Nick Vigil of Utah State and Joe Schobert of Wisconsin have similar profiles:  passable size for early-down work, football junkies, and good enough athleticism to believe they could offer value as situational blitzers and maybe survive in coverage.  Like Kwiatkowski, their skills may be a bit redundant of Ryan and Bradford, however.  Kentrell Brothers (Missouri) and Steven Daniels (Boston College) are high-volume tackling machines and team leaders.  They don’t solve any coverage problems for the linebacking corps, but Thompson might consider them as depth options and day-one special teams stalwarts if they slip to round 6—the spot where Thompson feels comfortable taking thumpers with coverage limitations, as evidenced by his sixth-round selections of Desmond Bishop in 2007 and D.J. Smith in 2011.

*                 *                 *

 

Outside Linebacker

          Since trading up for Clay Matthews in the draft immediately following the Packers’ 3-4 conversion, Thompson hasn’t made many big investments in the outside linebacker position in the draft.  In fact, since that time Thompson’s spent only one pick in the top three rounds on an outside linebacker, and he’s been a mild disappointment (Nick Perry).  Fourth rounders Jeremy Thompson (2008) and Carl Bradford (2014) showed nothing as outside pass rushers, and at present the primary outside linebackers consist of Matthews, Perry, a part-time player likely in his final year (Julius Peppers), a DL convert looking to salvage his career (Datone Jones), and a recently-signed Broncos castoff (Lerentee McCray).  Save Matthews, none of those guys are signed after next year.  And the undrafted Jayrone Elliott had a chance to audition for the role of future starter opposite Matthews last year, but didn’t do enough for Thompson to pencil him in as the 2017 starter opposite Matthews. 

As a result, this is probably the year Thompson dips his toe back into the pool of draft-grade outside linebackers with starting-caliber physical gifts, rather than gambling that an undrafted flier will emerge.  He won’t land a sure thing:  in this or any draft, you can find 3-4 OLBs who are polished pass rushers and you can find OLBs who are physical freaks, but you won’t find guys who are both unless you are picking in the top 10.  Picking at 27, the Packers won’t get a whiff of Ohio State’s Joey Bosa or UCLA’s Myles Jack.   Leonard Floyd of Georgia is a physical freak with a lot of learning to do, and he’ll likely be gone, as well, as will Clemson’s explosive Shaq Lawson.  Noah Spence is a lesser athlete with much more pass-rush polish than Floyd, and be could be gone too—even though any team’s general manager will have to swallow hard before spending a first-rounder on a guy who was banned from the Big Ten for substance abuse.  Even if Spence were available at 27, Thompson is not a GM who is likely to take that leap of faith with first-round pick.  Spence might be a second-round trade-up candidate if he blew the team away in interviews and background checks, but Spence had a long, long way to go to convince Thompson to invest a high selection on him.

Instead, as with tight end and the O-line, Thompson will look for guys with the right makeup and physical tools to become solid starters, but who need a redshirt year to fix some holes in their games and learn the position.  Between Perry, Jones, Peppers, and perhaps McCray and Elliott, the Packers have enough rotation guys to survive this year opposite Matthews.  Thompson will be looking for someone who can be ready to compete for a starting job in 2017.

Here are a few guys who might fit the bill:

Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State.  Mock drafts are all over the map on Calhoun, ranging from the middle of the first round to the top of the third.  Either way, Calhoun represents the top end of the range of pass rushers Thompson is likely to consider.  He doesn’t have great speed (4.8), but he’s former basketball player with good agility drill numbers at the Combine and perfect size (6’4”, 251) for the position.  Unlike Thompson’s last early-round OLB (Nick Perry), Calhoun was a playmaker throughout his college career:  he was a three-time All-American with a long history of forcing sacks (10.5 last year), hurries, and tackles for loss.  And, just like Thompson likes, he was a team captain for two years. 

Calhoun will require time to adjust to a new position in the NFL (he played on the line at Michigan State) and scouts fault his lack of power, so he may need some strength training and technique work on his leverage.  But the Packers can afford to give him that redshirt year to develop, and all available information suggests that Calhoun’s a guy who will take advantage of it.  If long-term positional value is the tiebreaker for Thompson’s first-round choice, then Calhoun could be the pick.  Thompson would feel much more comfortable plucking him if he falls to the Packers’ second-round pick at 57 overall.

Kyler Fackrell, Utah State.  Utah State kept the 3-4 in place after Dave Aranda left for Wisconsin in 2012, giving Fackrell something few draft prospects have:  experience playing rush linebacker in a 3-4.  Fackrell broke out in 2013 before losing a season to a major knee injury in 2014, but he bounced back with a monster year last fall (15 tackles for loss, 12 hurries, five fumble recoveries).  The injury didn’t rob Fackrell of his speed (4.6 to 4.7), and the high-school multi-sport athlete has starting-caliber athleticism and the right frame (6’5”, 245) for the position.  What’s more, his coaches say great things about his work ethic and he’s a 25-year-old husband and father; there’s little question he’s a guy who will take the job seriously.  Fackrell’s high floor comes with a fairly high price tag (second to fourth round in most mock drafts), but Thompson could get interested if Fackrell slips to the lower end of that price range.

Matt Judon, Grand Valley State.  Judon can’t hide from Packer scouts at Grand Valley State.  Thompson plucked Charles Johnson from the same school in the 2013 seventh round, and took Jeff Janis from the same conference the following year.  Like Johnson and Janis, Judon was a man among boys at that level, dropping 20 sacks on helpless division II linemen last year despite raw technique.  He’ll need a lot of coaching and will be converting to the OLB position, but he has all the physical tools (6’3”, 275, 4.7) to hold up against the run and make opposing linemen and quarterbacks nervous in the passing game.  Judging from mock drafts, Judon might be a target for one of the Packers’ three fourth-round picks.

Others under consideration:  Oklahoma State’s Emmanuel Ogbah will certainly look good to Thompson on paper:  he has great size for an OLB (6’4”, 273), good sack production last year, elite 4.6 speed, and a first- or second-round grade from most outlets.  But those outlets have suggested that Ogbah’s most natural position may be end in a 4-3.  Thompson won’t forget the way Nick Perry played like a fish out of water for several years when converting from a 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB.  Moreover, a slew of 4-3 teams occupy most of the 10 picks immediately in front of the Packers, making it less likely that Ogbah makes it to the Packers’ first pick at 27—and even more remote that he makes it to 57.  Even if Ogbah’s on the board at 27, Thompson will probably find the memory of Perry’s early disappointment too troubling for him to feel OK about paying sticker price for Ogbah.  Boise State’s Kamilea Correa might be around at 57.  He’s an explosive athlete (4.7 40) who got to the quarterback at a good rate in his last two all-Mountain West seasons.  But his flaws—troubling inconsistency, fringe size for the position (6’3”, 243), and the need to make a conversion from DE—are together probably too much for Thompson to overlook at a second-round price.  He can find guys with similarly promising pass-rush traits later on. 

Like Judon, Stony Brook’s Victor Ochi destroyed low-level competition, with 24 sacks the last two years.  Scouting reports rave about his aggression and power—two qualities that have been frequently lacking in the front seven throughout Thompson’s tenure.  He’s just a lot smaller (6’1”, 246) than the big converted linemen the Packers have been playing at OLB lately, suggesting that the coaching staff has a preference for OLBs with frames big enough to handle 260 to 280 lbs. after a year of NFL nutrition and strength training.  UTEP’s Roy Robertson-Harris sure has that frame:  he’s 6’7,” 255 and athletic.  He’s raw as can be and his production never matched his tools, but he was a team captain as a senior—making it a little easier for Thompson to talk himself into Robertson-Harris as a guy who’s finally ready to fulfill his potential, and worthy of a late-round draft choice.  Thompson will always have his annual “undrafted rookie rusher who gets multiple sacks in preseason games” serving in a reserve role at the back end of the roster.  But guys with the ceilings of legitimate starters at OLB require picks, and Thompson might spend a late one here to see if the Packers’ staff can get something out of Robertson-Harris by year two.  The same rationale applies to Tyrone Holmes of Montana, a 6’4”, 253-pound athlete with a 4.6 40-yard dash who abused FCS linemen for 18 sacks last year.  He’s raw and there are reports that he struggled with better competition in Shrine Game practices—two weaknesses that should make him available in the later rounds.  But he’s another guy with the physical gifts to take a redshirt year and emerge as a legitimate pass-rushing threat in 2017, when the Packers will need one the most.

*                 *                 *

 

Defensive Backs

          Finally, we arrive at a position where Thompson is feeling just fine:  the secondary.  The starters are set, they’re all signed beyond next year, and signs are pointing upward on all of them.  Beyond the starters, rookie Quentin Rollins showed promise of becoming an elite third corner.  Undrafted preseason sensation Ladarius Gunter overcame speed concerns and held up in very limited action during the regular season.  Demetri Goodson and Chris Banjo became special teams leaders, and both had their moments in limited action on the field.  Only sub-package contributor Micah Hyde will be a free agent after this season.

          After stocking the cupboard so well the past few years, Thompson doesn’t have to draft anyone at DB this year.  He’ll almost certainly forgo DBs in the first three rounds; there’s no reason for Thompson to pay a premium for a pro-ready prospect in the early rounds when there’s no path to early playing time for a rookie DB on this roster. 

He might not be able to help himself in the middle to late rounds, however.  Thompson and his scouts have hit on a strategy that’s worked for them in recent years:  finding tall-enough athletes with ball skills, regardless of position (or sport), and letting Joe Whitt and Darren Perry take it from there.  Casey Heyward, Shields, Burnett, Randall, Rollins, Goodson, Clinton-Dix—every one of them fits the same “athlete with ball skills” profile.  Given their recent success, the scouting staff has probably identified some favorite guys with those traits in this year’s draft.  If one of them is hanging around in the late fourth round onward, Thompson might pull the trigger.

          Here are some names that might be among the scouts’ favorites, and who have a chance at being around in the mid- to late-rounds of the draft.

          Kalan Reed, Southern Mississippi.  Reed fits the Packers’ new DB profile to a T.  He has good-enough size and speed (5’11”, 192, 4.4 to 4.5), and Pro Football Focus reports that he broke up or intercepted more than 20 percent of passes thrown his way this year—a jaw-dropping stat that won’t go unnoticed by Thompson and his staff.  Reed’s stock is all over the map:  he’s an early-round favorite of the writers at PFF, a fifth- to sixth-rounder at CBS Sports, and he’s not even included in NFL.com’s player database.  If he makes it into the middle or late rounds, he’ll start to look very tempting to Thompson.

          Tyvis Powell, Ohio State.  Powell is a big (6’3”, 211) college safety who reportedly struggled in the run game, but he has the speed (4.45) and ball skills to be groomed for a safety/corner hybrid role in the pros.  He made big interceptions at big moments for a big program, and reports are that he’s smart and well-liked by teammates.  Those are two qualities that matter a lot to Thompson in setting his draft board.  Thompson knowingly accepted the wrath of two different franchises quarterbacks at different times when he declined to pony up for Randy Moss and Marshawn Lynch via trade.  If Thompson was willing to stare down Favre and Rodgers to avoid running the risk of introducing malcontents into the locker room, he sure isn’t going take that risk in the late rounds of the draft.  Powell offers no such cause for worry, and should be available in the mid-to-late rounds.

          Others under consideration:  DeAndre Houston-Carson of William & Mary checks every box:  good size (6’1”, 201), sufficient speed (4.5), positional versatility (he started three years at corner, one at safety), good instincts and collegiate dominance, albeit over lesser competition.  Mock drafts suggest he’ll probably be gone earlier than the fifth round, but he’d be another tempting prospect for Thompson if he fell into bargain territory.  Harlan Miller of Southeast Louisiana also played well against lesser competition, and he receives similar rave reviews for his instincts and football character.  But he comes with a slighter frame (6’0”, 182) than Houston-Carson, leading to a later-round price tag.  Thompson could also opt for a longer-term project like Texas A&M’s Brandon Williams, a senior-year convert from the RB position with enough size (5’11”, 197) and elite speed (4.39) to make Thompson curious.  He needs a lot of work learning how to play the position, but he did it well enough out of the gate to start against SEC competition last fall.  Thompson isn’t scared off by college inexperience at the CB position; Shields and Rollins have proven that the right athletes with the right traits can pick it up quickly.  If Thompson sees enough encouraging traits in Williams’ tape, he might take a flier on him in the late rounds.

*                 *                 *

 

Kickers/Punters/Returners

          Not this year.  Crosby just re-upped his deal, and Masthay is under contract through this season.  Thompson might be in the market for a punter in next year’s draft, but he’ll give Masthay an opportunity to earn an extension with his play this year.  As for the return game, Thompson already took the best available return specialist in last year’s draft (Montgomery), and between him, Micah Hyde, Abbrederis, and Janis, they have plenty of potential returners already on the roster.

 


Editor's Note: This 2 part series is provided to us by Matt Lynch, a Madison-area Packer fan and draft junkie who has been following Packers’ drafts closely ever since the team went for Tony Mandarich at no. 2 overall in 1989.

 

NFL Categories: 
0 points
 

Comments (30)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
dobber's picture

April 27, 2016 at 12:51 pm

Great read, Matt. Nicely done.

0 points
0
0
RCPackerFan's picture

April 27, 2016 at 12:56 pm

Another great article!

I would be very, very happy if the Packers drafted Kenny Clark in the first and Jatavis Brown in the 2nd.

Clark I think could become exactly what we want from a NT. I love his ability to play directly over the center. He abuses centers.

I don't view Brown as a pass down specialist. I see him as an every down LB. He ultimately might be better on passing downs, but that doesn't mean he won't be good on run downs.

0 points
0
0
Spock's picture

April 27, 2016 at 01:36 pm

Wow, Matt. You really, really, know your college players! I don't follow college players, but Tucson is a lot like Madison, basically a "college football town" with the Wildcats so I've read a bit about the undersized Scooby Wright. I've learned a lot from your 2 articles (lengthy, but worth the read!). Some of the best pre-draft stuff I've seen. Hopefully, you'll be back next year. Of course, speculation about the Packer's 1st round pick will be even more interesting then since they will be picking (ahem) 32nd! I found your comment about Kenny Clark having a wrestling background intriguing as it seems a wrestler's knowledge of leverage translates well to the NFL. Thanks for the two great articles!

0 points
0
0
EdsLaces's picture

April 27, 2016 at 02:00 pm

One....more....day. :) I'd love to see Kwiatkowski in the green and gold. Hail WV. Speaking of WV ....no KJ Dillon love?

0 points
0
0
steven10825's picture

April 27, 2016 at 03:31 pm

I really feel like our 1st rounder will be between nkemdiche, spence, or billings.... Dunno why... Give me a shout out if im right boys!

0 points
0
0
DrealynWilliams's picture

April 27, 2016 at 04:14 pm

Stick to Nkemdiche and I'll give you a shout-out and a Packers jersey of your choice (authentic)

0 points
0
0
holmesmd's picture

April 27, 2016 at 05:02 pm

Butler, Robinson, and Reed have much less risk. I have no idea why fans are so enamored with this guy as much as they are. He has behavioral question marks and would disappear for large portions of games. Not worth an r1 IMO. It always depends on what TT graded the guy but based upon what I know(which may not be a lot), I think he goes in r2. FWIW, Kiper articulated these points for my consideration. The clips I watched seem to support his position.

0 points
0
0
DrealynWilliams's picture

April 27, 2016 at 05:08 pm

fans of football or fans of the Packers? I haven't seen any Packer fans (on Packer fan sites) wanting him.

0 points
0
0
jh9's picture

April 27, 2016 at 04:15 pm

One DT you didn't mention was Javon Hargrave of South Carolina State. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/2007634/javon-hargrave
He comes from a smaller school, but he dominated the competition and has all the measurables. He's the kind of player TT likes to find.
If Reggie Ragland is available at 27, I would like to see TT take him and then take Hargrave in the 2nd Round.

0 points
0
0
sonomaca's picture

April 27, 2016 at 07:41 pm

He's a known quantity at this point. Some are saying late first/early second for him.

0 points
0
0
holmesmd's picture

April 27, 2016 at 10:26 pm

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/javon-hargrave?id=2555239

"Squatty with short arms & small hands"? Uumm, if that's accurate he doesn't sound like an r2 flyer?

0 points
0
0
holmesmd's picture

April 27, 2016 at 05:06 pm

Billings has less risk as well but I really hope we snare Vernon Butler. I really like his motor, size, and versatility. I must say, I truly hope we draft J Brown! He could be used in so many different ways!:)

http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/sports/football/browns-speed-could-b...

0 points
0
0
Community Guy's picture

April 27, 2016 at 06:26 pm

thank you for your thought-provoking series Matt Lynch. i feel you did a lot of research and picked up some good analysis. some of the players mentioned should have caveats attached to their names.. e.g., Jatavis Brown has more issues than his lack of prototypical league size and coming from a smaller school.. tackling and coverage have also come up. also, i was hugely into Matt Judon, had one of those 4th round choices ear-marked for him until i recently saw that youtube video of him stomping on an opponents' head. i think that will turn TT off. on the other hand, for what it is worth, i am still high on guys like Fackrell and Reed.

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 27, 2016 at 09:03 pm

You dare to diss Jatavis Brown? I expect a few replies shortly (JK). I like Brown for a 4th rd. comp. pick myself.

0 points
0
0
holmesmd's picture

April 27, 2016 at 10:37 pm

RE: J Brown,
If what you assert is accurate( which I don't believe to be the case), tackling and coverage can be coached. The metrics can't.;)

0 points
0
0
MarkinMadison's picture

April 27, 2016 at 07:13 pm

Great read.

It would be interesting to know if TT sees Ragland as a two-down guy or a three-down guy.

I'd like to see the Packers invest in a taller DE like Kaufusi or Brown to help fill passing lanes. Many seem to think that Kaufusi is overrated.

0 points
0
0
sonomaca's picture

April 27, 2016 at 07:46 pm

I seriously doubt the Pack would spend a first on a run-stuffing ILB.

In general, what concerns me is TT's pretty dismal record drafting defensive linemen. As good as he is with defensive backs, receivers, and QB's, he's equally bad on the D-line.

I don't know if he trusts himself to get it right. I can see Ted trading back from #27, if only to relieve himself of the pressure of having to make a first round D-line pick.

0 points
0
0
4thand1's picture

April 27, 2016 at 07:17 pm

The Vikings will take Ragland because most of the mock drafts have him going to GB.

0 points
0
0
sonomaca's picture

April 27, 2016 at 07:43 pm

Cravens is an interesting option. He might fit the bill as a LB who can cover. The interesting thing about him is that he's completely flubbed the pre-draft process, and this has pushed him down, perhaps to late 2nd or early 3rd.

0 points
0
0
0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 27, 2016 at 08:58 pm

Very good article (once again, you endangered my dinner since I got engrossed in this article while the food was cooking in the oven). I can see TT looking at a DB in the 3rd but more likely the 4th and a punter in the 7th, but probably not in the 6th. The loss of Hayward and his 900+ snaps and Hyde´s continuing downward spiral might be offset by the potential displayed by Rollins, and to a lesser extent, Randall, and perhaps Gunter and Robertson Daniels.

I do think that it would be hard to go wrong taking a DL in the first. Reed, Robinson, Billings are all legitimate 1st rounders who in most drafts would go in low to mid teens. Butler too. Clark and Johnson in many years would sneak into the 1st round, though I view them as in the next tier down. OTOH, this draft probably presents a good opportunity in terms of talent to get an OLB to replace Peppers and eventually CM3, but each has a red flag. I think it would be hard to pass on Lawson, for example, even if an ILB or DL mentioned above is there. 24 or 25 hours to go.

0 points
0
0
Oppy's picture

April 27, 2016 at 10:13 pm

On NT: I don't consider 6'1", 311 to be "Nose tackle size." While height in and of itself isn't critical, I'd still like my NT to be 6'3" for the associated length, and I'm looking at 330 lbs. bare minimum for my true 3-4 NT.

On DE: 6'5"-ish is pretty prototypical height for a 3-4 DE, but that's only because most guys that tall have the reach (associated length). That said, the height really isn't the important thing. When we're talking 3-4 DE's, it would be very helpful to see arm length and hand size listed as well. A 6'2, 300 lbs DE with really large hands and orangutan arms could be more suited to play 3-4 DE than a 6'6", 315 lbs DE with smallish hands and short arms. The position is all about length.

0 points
0
0
Oppy's picture

April 27, 2016 at 10:14 pm

* and yes, I know, the Packers don't have long DEs for the 3-4. lol. They should if they ever get serious about wanting to be able to stay in base on more downs.

0 points
0
0
DrealynWilliams's picture

April 27, 2016 at 10:54 pm

They'll need better man-coverage from their Safeties and/or LBs before worrying about getting longer at DE if they want to use Base more.

0 points
0
0
lucky953's picture

April 27, 2016 at 10:23 pm

Thank you for the insightful reading of Teds draft principles and tendencies. That reads spot on to me. I'll be surprised (again!) if he doesn't take a DL in the 1st and OLB in the second. Keep writing!

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

April 28, 2016 at 06:29 am

Another excellent article... I just hope that Ted Thompson will surprise us as he did last season. His last draft was (it looks like now) excellent with many immediate contributors... Go, Pack, Go...

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

April 28, 2016 at 06:38 am

Kalan Reed, Noah Spence, Roy Robertson-Harris, Bronson Kaufusi, David Onyemata - all of them were visiting Packers for tryouts or pre draft discussion... There is more, so I would like to ask you if you can write something about the rest of the group who visited Packers
(link for list is: http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016-nfl-draft-packers/2016/4/27/11517...)
Thank you!

0 points
0
0
Handsback's picture

April 28, 2016 at 04:51 pm

I would love for Noah to fall...I just don't think he will. I see Butler for the Pack tonight. I'm just about 100% WRONG! I think I got Hawk, and HHCD right.

0 points
0
0
Community Guy's picture

April 30, 2016 at 12:16 am

Matt Lynch: through day 2 of the draft, your analysis is holding. great job with the intelligence report! ps i hope that your picks for ILB are wrong.. i have other players in mind.

0 points
0
0
Matt Lynch's picture

May 03, 2016 at 09:16 pm

Hey CG, thanks for checking back. I'm glad you thought to do it; I was hoping this preview might actually be more helpful after Ted picks, to remind us of what roster issues were staring him in the face at any given position he picks (or passes on). Then, we can work backward to try to figure out how the pick (or pass) makes sense to Thompson. I'm putting together a post-draft follow up that will go through that exercise for all of Ted's moves in the draft - hope you'll come back for more.

0 points
0
0