Predicting Packers 53-Man Roster – Version 2.0
Today we revisit that early-May Green Bay Packers roster prediction and update it with the advantage of hindsight. Our revised predictions, by way of Version 2.0, on who will make the final-53 in 2015 are detailed below.
By pointerjeff
Back in May this author predicted the opening day 2015 Green Bay Packers roster – Version 1.0 as it was posted on ALLGBP.com at the time. That article predicted a surprising 16 new faces would make the team – a 30% turnover rate from the previous season.
Today we revisit that May prediction and update it with the advantage of hindsight. Our revised predictions, by way of Version 2.0, looks to update who makes the final-53 in 2015 and are detailed below.
Here was the projection in May – Version 1.0:
2015 Offense (24)
QB – Aaron Rodgers, Scott Tolzien and Brett Hundley
HB – Eddie Lacy, James Starks
FB – John Kuhn, Aaron Ripkowski
WR – Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, *Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery
TE – Andrew Quarless, Richard Rodgers, and Kennard Backman
OL – David Bakhtiari, TJ Lang, Corey Linsley, Josh Sitton, Bryan Bulaga, JC Tretter, *Don Barclay, Matt Rotheram
2015 Defense (26)
DL – Datone Jones, Letroy Guion, *B.J. Raji, Mike Daniels, Mike Pennel, *Khyri Thornton, and Christian Ringo.
LB – Clay Matthews, Sam Barrington, Jake Ryan, Julius Peppers, Nick Perry, Mike Neal, Carl Bradford, Adrian Hubbard and Tavarus Dantzler.
CB – Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Damarious Randall (S), Demetri Goodson, Micah Hyde (S) and Ladarius Gunter (S)
S – Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Morgan Burnett, Sean Richardson, Quinten Rollins (CB)
2015 Special Teams (3)
P – Tim Masthay K – Mason Crosby LS – Brett Goode
*Spent 2014 season on IR.
The August 2.0 Version, and not surprisingly so, has changed somewhat. It now features the names of 14 players who were not on last year’s year-end squad – a 26% turnover rate.
2015 Projected 53-Man Roster – August - Version 2.0:
2015 Offense (24 – No change)
QB – Aaron Rodgers, Scott Tolzien and Brett Hundley
HB – Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Rajion Neal
FB – Aaron Ripkowski
WR – Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery
TE – Andrew Quarless, Richard Rodgers, Mitchell Henry, and Kennard Backman
OL – David Bakhtiari, TJ Lang, Corey Linsley, Josh Sitton, Bryan Bulaga, JC Tretter, *Don Barclay, Josh Walker
2015 Defense (26 – no change)
DL – Datone Jones, Letroy Guion, *B.J. Raji, Mike Daniels, Mike Pennel, Josh Boyd, and Christian Ringo.
LB – OLB/ILB Clay Matthews, ILB Sam Barrington, OLB Julius Peppers, OLB Nick Perry, OLB Mike Neal, OLB Andy Mulumba, OLB Jayrone Elliott, ILB Jake Ryan, ILB Nate Palmer.
CB – Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Damarious Randall (S), Demetri Goodson, Micah Hyde (S) and Ladarius Gunter (S), Quinten Rollins
S – Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Morgan Burnett, Sean Richardson.
2015 Special Teams (3 – no change)
P – Tim Masthay K – Mason Crosby LS – Brett Goode
*Spent 2014 season on IR.
Offense Notes:
QB: No changes.
RB: The play of Rajion Neal has opened many eyes in camp. After gaining 10 lbs. of muscle and having the advantage of playing in the current system on and off for three years Neal has shown that he belongs. He has even lined up at WR on occasion and performed well. John Crockett missed too much training camp with injury and also missed his opportunity for a roster spot. He will be a strong contender for the practice squad however. Another practice squad candidate is Alonzo Harris - a big banger who has surprised and could be Starks replacement next year.
FB: I like both of these players, but I cannot carry two fullbacks especially with suspensions looming to start the season. Kuhn is a valuable player on the offense and special teams and Ripkowski is green. But Ripkowski is excelling on special teams and has improved assignments and blocking. Assuming he continues to improve his play recognition, I look for him to supplant Kuhn this year.
TE: With Andrew Quarless facing suspension I want my TE group to be in place on day one – and without roster moves. There may not be a more surprising player than undrafted FA Mitchell Henry. With Perillo out due to injury (concussion at NE), Henry has shown to be a willing blocker and able pass-catcher even with a cast on his injured hand.
WR: I have a dilemma at wide receiver. I really like this group and don’t want to lose Myles White who has had an excellent camp. But there is more upside with Jeff Janis who still remains very much a work in progress. The possibility remains for White to be added back into the mix when Quarless completes his suspension replacing one of the TE’s. Unfortunately Jared Abbrederis' concussion history presebts a risk that the Packers cannot afford to take.
OL: Massive Josh Walker (6’ 5”, 327#) has improved in leaps and bounds from training camp last year and has earned a roster spot. He can work at guard and tackle and has actually performed better than veteran Don Barkley. I am giving Barclay a pass here as he has yet to excel coming back from season-ending injury last year. However look for Barclay to rebound and earn the eighth and final spot on the OL. Rotheram missed practice time early in camp and never got on track, but is a solid candidate for the practice squad.
Defense Notes:
DL: This group presents a dilemma as there is a probability that two players will start the season on the suspended list (Guion and Jones) – thus we keep seven rather than six at the position. Jones has yet to make a significant jump and is nearing “bust” status if he isn’t there already. Khyri Thornton is better than last year, but only marginally so and Ted Thompson will finally admit his drafting mistake and let him go. Ringo has potential yet hasn’t shown much in camp, but draft choices have preference over undrafted players thus he sticks.
LB: This entire group is muddled and not as clear-cut as I would have hoped. Yet there is a lot to like about the group including the ability to make an impact on Special Teams. Dantzler hasn’t excelled as I hoped he would and is now practice squad material. Perry may be on his last chance to show that he belongs. Bradford has not improved either and is expendable. OLB Andy Mulumba, OLB Jayrone Elliott and ILB Nate Palmer have earned roster spots with steady if not stellar play. Impressive James Vaughters almost makes the final-53 but ends up on the practice squad instead.
CB: No change in personnel. With so many interchangeable parts the only question will be who ultimately will play the boundary corner along with Shields, slot and perhaps even safety.
S: No Change in personnel.
Special Teams Notes:
The only competition ended with the release of former Alabama punter Cody Mandell.
If the suspensions to Jones, Guion and Quarless go as currently announced the roster for weeks one through three may necessitate some minor shot-term roster tweaks.
What stands out is with this group contains a lot more athletes and tougher players than last year’s bunch. That bodes well for the overall success of the team and is absolutely imperative if Special Teams are to be an asset as opposed to the burden they had become.
Overall this 2015 team has the look of a group capable of representing the NFC in San Francisco in February for Super Bowl 50. It is an exciting time to be a Packers fan.
Comments (33)
Bearmeat
August 21, 2015 at 08:09 am
Look at this - we are "worried" about ROLB, the 2nd 5 Tech DT in the base package (which is rarely used) backup TE, backup ILB, and the 3rd RB. This team is DEEP and has talent all over the field on both sides of the ball.
And I'm saying it now: Barring significant injury, this team will be better than 12-4, will get homefield, will win the NFC and will win Super Bowl 50.
Good times indeed. :)
TarynsEyes
August 21, 2015 at 09:42 am
Depth perception and actual depth are indeed tricky things.
No doubt the depth on the offense is visible and any seen differences are likely minimal.
The defense is still very foggy with hope.
ray nichkee
August 21, 2015 at 10:58 am
Youre brain must be foggy, this team is loaded with talent top to bottom. They are 2 guys on defense and one guy on offense from being unstoppable. Sure opposing teams will score but without any major injuries happening we are in for a great season to watch. You cant have 53 pro bowlers on your roster. Be fortunate to watch the pack these days.
Bearmeat
August 21, 2015 at 11:19 am
No Ray, Taryn has a good point, even if I think she is on the pessimistic side.
IF no young guys (Jones, Perry, Neal, Mulumba, Elliot, Palmer, Bradford, Pennel, etc..) step up, the front 7 will be paper thin. IF Peppers regresses, which when you look at his history with both the Panthers and the Bears it's quite possible.... then yes. The defense will hold the team back. Especially if CM3 gets injured or Raji busts.
That said... that's a lot of 'IFs'. I don't think it's likely that NO young guys step up on the front 7. Every year someone (at least 1 guy) has. It'll happen again.
TarynsEyes
August 21, 2015 at 11:36 am
Not really pessimistic,just more even keeled.
I'm riding the Packer train but I'm only buying a ticket one stop at a time as yet with defense but complete ride offensively.
Since'61
August 21, 2015 at 12:27 pm
Bearmeat - you and Taryn have made valid points as usual. For me the three big "ifs" on defense are:
1. If there are no serious injuries on the defense.
2. If Raji returns to something close to 2010 form or at least someone besides Daniels steps up on the DL
3. If the young ILBs step up and play well.
If all 3 happen the defense will be solid. If either 2 or 3 or both happens we'll be OK. However, if we lose someone like CM3, or Shields or Burnett for any length of time or have some simultaneous injuries to a few starters all bets are off for the defense. If we get through the first 4 games of the season healthy we'll have a pretty good idea of how good this defense is. As for the offense we're missing a TE threat and a red chip LT. Bakh is the weakest link of an otherwise solid OL. I'm hoping that entering his third season his level of play will begin to reach the level of his O-line mates and that hopefully his knee is OK for the long term. Go Pack! Thanks, Since '61
Bearmeat
August 21, 2015 at 12:29 pm
Yep 61. Add in 'IF' Pep plays at a level close to what he did last year.
PS: I find it funny that you are proclaiming Burnett invaluable now when last season you wanted him drawn and quartered. :)
Since'61
August 21, 2015 at 12:50 pm
Well, I have to be fair. Yes, I was disappointed with Burnett and I did harangue him for his 2013 performance, because he played poorly and he hurt the team. However, in 2014 his performance improved significantly and I give him credit for turning himself around and I recognize his contributions for 2014. I would not say that he is invaluable but if we lost him now the safety position would become a big question mark again. He and Dix solidified the safety position last season and as we have been discussing with this article we don't need safety to become a question mark again given the other ifs and ?s we already have on the defense. If I gave him hell when he was bad I have to dish out some glory when he's good. Thanks, Since '61
Thegreatreynoldo
August 21, 2015 at 12:52 pm
Ray, we're fortunate to have lots of talent, even if its disproportionately on offense. There is some haziness though. TEs can't block or stretch a field. Both should be #2s. Back up RT is hazy. Maybe Walker. There is no back up LT at all, and I see no plan. IDK why GB is so hellbent on keeping Bulaga at RT even in an emergency. IIRC he has not taken any practice reps at LT, and he hasn't played there in years. We can handle moderate misfortune in terms of injuries on offense and still score lots of points.
I am assuming Raji is an upgrade at NT. Pennel and Guion are decent back ups, but are downgrades. I am assuming Guion is an upgrade at LDE, but if not Boyd/Datone are below average. Barrington is at best mediocre. I'm not sure if Palmer and Ryan are interchangeable with Barrington, but they would be downgrades at least early in the season. I see a hole at outside CB, though with lots of possibilities. Hyde would be a downgrade if he had to play FS or SS. Banjo isn't making the team? Richardson can't play FS or SS for that matter. All he can do is spy and play STs. I don't remember Rollins or Randall getting any reps at safety - though I see Jeff lists Rollins as a safety. Dix made some mistakes on assignments last year - I sure don't want to see how many mistakes Randall/Rollins would make if thrown in there mid-season with few or no reps there, and mistakes by one's FS result in big gains/TDs.
croatpackfan
August 21, 2015 at 03:42 pm
For all of you. One small question: "How depth of the Packers team looks like if Yellowstone mega volcano explodes just before season starts? Any of you can answer on this question?
TKWorldWide
August 21, 2015 at 04:11 pm
Is that 'Yellowstone mega volcano' exploding in an empty forest, Greg? I mean, Croat?
Thegreatreynoldo
August 21, 2015 at 05:42 pm
Croat - you may be right and we are all just nitpicking. It is just that we all can sense a super bowl coming and are looking for chinks in the armor.
LeagueObsrvr
August 22, 2015 at 11:51 pm
Agreed Reynaldo. And this goes back to what Taryn wrote at the start of the thread. The Packers may be solid on paper, particularly on offense, But between questions on defense and the always unseen variable of injuries, it's probably better to remain cautiously optimistic. Lets just take it one game at a time and like Mike Holmgren used to say: "Enjoy the journey."
DrealynWilliams
August 21, 2015 at 08:14 am
I don't see the problem with 2 FBs if they can contribute. Didn't we have 4 make the final 53 some seasons ago? If not 4, we've had 2 FBs make the final 53 before.
Evan
August 21, 2015 at 08:50 am
3 in 2010 - Korey Hall, John Kuhn and Quinn Johnson - and that was idiotic, even if they did with the Super Bowl.
murphy
August 21, 2015 at 09:25 am
It was kind of cool to see 3 FBs in the Bone, though.
DrealynWilliams
August 21, 2015 at 09:29 am
Right! I remember that look!
But of course, playing both sides, I understand using the TEs instead of the FBs. Running Play-Action would be way more effective.
DrealynWilliams
August 21, 2015 at 09:30 am
Why do you feel it was idiotic, Evan? Things worked and those players contributed.
ray nichkee
August 21, 2015 at 10:47 am
I think it was due to lack of depth at RB and TE. That is why i dont worry about TE as long as we have R Rodgers.
Evan
August 21, 2015 at 01:29 pm
"Idiotic" was probably too strong and flippant.
Yes, things obvious worked out in the end (because of or in spite of the 3 FBs, who knows) and I can't remember who was cut to keep 3 FBs or what their specific contributions were to that team - Kuhn ran for 280 yards and scored 4 TDs, but Hall and Johnson had a combined 35 yards of offense on the season - but I just think from a pure roster construction standpoint, keeping 3 fullbacks is a mismanagement of resources.
DrealynWilliams
August 22, 2015 at 10:49 am
You shouldn't bring up stats when talking about FBs. That's as thankless of a job as NT.
Evan
August 22, 2015 at 11:51 am
That's fair. But kinda goes to my point. The impact of a fullback is so hard to measure and their athletic upside is limited that I just feel those extra roster spots could have been better used. But, again, they won the Super Bowl so whatever, really. Ha.
am6517
August 21, 2015 at 10:14 am
I think I agree with all of Jeff's picks except for Goodson. I just don't see him making the final 53 at this point. He is currently injured and hasn't practice in a while, he reminds me of Jared Bush in that he is a good special teams player and not much else.
But here's the question, do we really need another gunner on specail teams and kickoff? Gunter, Montgomery, Janis, Hyde, and rollins/randall can all play that position.
In my opinion, they cut Goodson and keep Kuhn. Yes, Ripkowski does a hell of a job on special teams, but he needs work as a lead blocker.
Does anyone remember the article a few weeks back about Lacy's rushing statistics? It was a well written article that showed that Lacy is at his best when he has a lead blocker in front of him (which is strange because I assumed he did better as the loan back).
In short, Kuhn gets one more year as a lead blocker, special teams ace, and time for Ripkowski to develop. Plus, having two full backs will help out with the Quarless suspension looming.
ray nichkee
August 21, 2015 at 11:03 am
Kuhn will be back at least for one more year. He will go out with class, not as a roster cut.
SpudRapids
August 21, 2015 at 10:58 am
I think they take Rip and Kuhn into week 1 and one of them gets the chopping block when Quarless comes back
aaronqb
August 21, 2015 at 10:58 am
I like the idea of releasing Kuhn now. Ripkowski is coming along and Kuhn was only in on about 18 plays per game anyway. IMO, it's better to use that 53rd roster spot on someone who is developing.
And, Kuhn is far from a special teams ace. He is very slow.
Idiot Fan
August 21, 2015 at 11:12 am
My guess is that they keep Kuhn one more year and try to put Rip on the PS. He may not play many plays, but they want that guy that they can put in and know that he will pick up the block for AR (like in Chicago, Week 17, 2013). I wouldn't mind giving Rip a year to learn before putting him in.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 21, 2015 at 11:14 am
Jeff's changes:
Subtract: Kuhn, Abby (injury) Rotherham (injury);
Addition: TE Henry, OG Walker, RB Raijon Neal;
Subtract: Thornton, Bradford, Dantzler (all for poor play)
Addition: Boyd (default?), Mulumba, Palmer
Surprises:
1) Cutting Perillo or IR in favor of Henry. I agree though - Perillo has been and IMO continues to look like a fringe player. Henry has shown as much now and has more upside.
2) Keeping Backman - imo on draft status alone. Backman can't block at all, dropped everything in camp, and only recently has shown signs of life - but you still need a stethoscope to detect same. He should have been a UDFA and belongs on PS. I would keep Kuhn all year rather than this nonentity.
3) Boyd - he has plateaued. I agree with keeping him - he's under contract for 2 more yrs (unlike Guion - his replacement) and he is can be a back up, not a starter.
4) Keeping Goodson. I need more eval on him.
5) Not using the exemptions for the suspensions of Jones, Guion and likely Quarless.
I'd keep RR, Henry, and Perillo (assuming he clears concussion protocol) and waive Perillo when Q comes back. I might keep Blanchard and see if I can showcase him in an early blowout. I might keep Rotherham depending on performance rather than assume I can stash him on the PS. I might keep Gaston or Vaughters.
5a) Keeping Kuhn would trigger "Termination Pay" under the CBA since he has more than 4 yrs of accrued service - i.e. his base salary becomes guaranteed for the entire season, even if he is subsequently cut in game 1 through whatever. IDK (since Kuhn has a "guaranteed contract" whether cutting him after game 3 for eg., costs $870K or $635K - either way it is a lot of money for just a few games.
DrealynWilliams
August 21, 2015 at 11:16 am
John Kuhn is going to get the Donald Driver treatment. A year too late rather than a year early.
PETER MAIZ
August 21, 2015 at 01:57 pm
If Damarius plays well, as we expect, and with Quinten already picking up at a good pace, is Dimitri Goodson expandable? I think he may be.
DrealynWilliams
August 21, 2015 at 02:26 pm
I think it's more about Gunter than the other 2 CBs. Now, if Gunter continues to shine that's not good for Goodson's chances. Gunter can contribute as a CB/Safety and on ST.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 22, 2015 at 11:39 am
When someone writes that a CB has become expendable, it implies that the CB was at one time useful. That is not the case. I disliked the Goodson pick - too old and too raw - but Goodson has good speed, good hips, and good athleticism. The only questions are can he learn the technique and is he a football player or an athlete?
Jeff lists 9 DBs and 8 are locks to make the 53: Shields, Hayward, Rollins, Randall, Hyde, Dix, Burnett, Richardson. We usually keep 10, but sometimes 9 or 11. Gunter seems to be a good bet and would be the 9th.
That leaves Goodson, Banjo, Glover-Wright, Sebetic, Ryan White, and Jean Fanor fighting for one spot or just going with 9 DBs this year. IMO Banjo can play in the NFL & is capable of providing immediate help in case of injury, but I don't see any upside. I need more eval on the rest of these prospects.
PETER MAIZ
August 21, 2015 at 02:02 pm
Another comment: It would be fun predicting who ends up in the practice squad.