Pivotal Draft Points
Cheesehead TV is proud to present the third in a series of draft articles from long time CHTV reader Chris Squire.
By PackerAaron
Cheesehead TV is proud to present the third in a series of draft articles from long time CHTV reader Chris Squire. Big thanks to Chris for doing this and we hope you’ll let him know what you think in the comments section.
The 2010 draft order was determined shortly after the New Orleans Saints hoisted the Lombardi Trophy on February 7th, 2010. Team needs are always speculative but even the average fan can accurately name the top 3 positional needs of a franchise with some accuracy. Disclaimer: I can’t be certain how the executive leadership prioritizes team need and how it aligns with the overall prospect strengths within the current draft class.
Pre-draft trades notwithstanding, here is a list of needs by team. There are four teams drafting ahead of the Packers that I feel may cause a highly rated prospect to fall, in this case I’m looking at Earl Thomas. Thomas now resides within the top 10 overall prospects on the Big Boards of Mike Mayock, Mel Kiper and Scouts Inc. (to name a few). Thomas can effectively flex to corner or safety. He’s the ball hawking defensive back that can suddenly make the Packers backfield look more like pigskin assassins. He’s so flexible you could also look forward to more of Woodson flexing to the line of scrimmage where he truly creates value and earned last year’s MVP.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/31613/football-guru-mel-kiper
I (Mel Kiper) made more of his great performances with the pads on. He played fast. He's aggressive. He's a ball hawk. He's consistent. He showed up huge in the big games. In coverage, he's outstanding. He's not the biggest safety out there, but he's big enough. It wouldn't shock me to see some teams look at him, for him to go No. 10 or 12.
Mel says #10 or #12 based on his overall value. I believe teams within this range draft in this position because of talent deficient rosters and slightly overvalue prospects based on need instead of pure talent and upside. I’m primarily focused on the Bills (#9), Steelers (#18), Falcons (#19), Texans (#20) and the Patriots (#22). Anybody can make a reasonable argument that each team preceding the Packers has an impact, and I would agree. Let’s look at these five (5) teams in particular:
Bills (#9) – Well, they need everything. This is a roster devoid of talent, but especially desperate on the defensive side of the ball considering their transition to the 3-4 defense. I have the Bills at pivot point #1 due to Jimmy Clausen. They desperately need everything and will likely have a potential franchise QB in their lap. They take him, and more defensive prospects slide. Pass on him, and every team following the Bills will have a difficult decision to make thus pushing defensive prospects even further down draft boards. Initiate the Thomas slide….
Steelers (#18) – Have almost identical needs as the Packers. However, they may look to value more than need. Defensive linemen are getting bigger and agile centers with mass are a necessity (and a rarity). Great defensive prospects will further slide when the Steelers take Maurkice Pouncey. Thomas slides…..
Falcons (#19) – Desperately need defensive line help, especially end. They can find a corner in round 2, but unlikely they find help in the trenches after round one. They jump on one of several rush-end prospects still available, likely over-drafting for need vs. value. Thomas slides…
Texans (#20) – Their secondary was tourched and they’re in dire need of CB’s and Safety. Prospects I believe will be here as a byproduct of preceding teams taking need over value, and/or this is simply the natural range of the prospect in general: Kyle Wilson, Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, Earl Thomas and Taylor Mays. I’m guessing Wilson or McCourty. Thomas slides (barely)….
Patriots (#22) – They are desperate for defensive help and/or Tight End. There are a host of players likely available that are both value and need in each area, including a top tight end. Patriots supposedly love Jared Odrick, an outstanding 3-4 end prospect (better than the over-drafted Tyson Jackson at the #3 spot from last year, in my humble opinion).
Thomas slides…
Every year a great prospect slides by no fault of his own. With so many teams desperate for 3-4 talent and just as many teams attempting to shore up their offensive lines it’s inevitable that somebody in a skill position, a position of less value (safety), or a position where the 2010 draft is so deep in round 2 and 3 slides. It’s a long shot, but the kid will look great in green-and-gold.
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Comments (61)
April 10, 2010 at 02:05 am
"They are desperate for defensive help and/or Tight End. There are a host of players likely available that are both value and need in each area, including a top tight end."
Are you referring to Tim Tebow?
PackerAaron
April 10, 2010 at 02:15 am
lol
April 10, 2010 at 02:25 am
I would love to get him. With chuck, al, Nick, tramon, Thomas we would have one of if not the best secondary
April 10, 2010 at 03:12 am
I gotta say Sergio Kindle's my hope for the 1st pick. He'd be an outstanding compliment to Clay.
I'd also like to see GB grab Amari Spivey with the 2nd pick. Dude's a stud. Sure tackler, very physical.
I pray to Superman that Al Harris is back for the 1st game, I honest to god love that man. His love for the game is inspiring.
April 10, 2010 at 04:00 am
J-E-R-R-Y H-U-G-H-E-S. N.K.N. (no KINDLE Necessary).
April 10, 2010 at 04:27 am
I would not be mad at that. Him or Graham
April 10, 2010 at 05:08 pm
All solid prospects. I just have my fingers crossed we snatch up Hughes.
12 days... and counting
April 10, 2010 at 03:28 am
This dude will fall all the way down to 23 and TT will trade back. LOL.
April 10, 2010 at 04:11 am
Must admit, that's not a bad scenario (need a lot of things to go right for it to happen). Not my ideal pick @ 23 (I'd take Hughes if we had a top 10, he's gonna be a STUD, watch). Thomas would look damn good rep'n the G&G though. If we could land the 2nd Safety off the board as opposed to the 4th or 5th OT, I'd be all about it (if we don't go Jerry).
13 days... and counting
GBP 4 LIFE
April 10, 2010 at 02:27 pm
I like Jerry Hughes much, much more than Kindle and I also believe Hughes will still be there in the beginning of round 2. I feel as though Hughes has more upside than Graham or any other hybrid 3-4 prospect. Circumstance and need will shuffle him out of round 1 and watch the trade activity in early round 2 to go after him.
April 10, 2010 at 10:47 pm
Earl Thomas and Jerry Huges to the Pack??? Well, it would leave a HUGE hole in the LT spot for years to come...
But we'd have a top 5 D for sure...
April 11, 2010 at 06:09 am
Maybe Ted can finally land that "Gem" OT n the 3rd... he's due.
April 10, 2010 at 09:16 am
Don't see him getting past Jacksonville at 10 TBH.
April 10, 2010 at 02:32 pm
Quite possible, but Jacksonville has very little rushing the QB. Could also see them reaching for Dez Bryant if he's still there. I see many of the teams choosing in the top 15 taking either tackles (offensive and defensive), pass rushers or luxury picks like C.J. Spiller or Dez Bryant, and ignoring the DB position because round 2 is so deep with corners and safeties. That's why I honestly think Thomas could slide to at least #18 if not to Green Bay.
Byproduct of the deepest DB draft in over a decade.
April 10, 2010 at 03:08 pm
#1 Protect our QB
#2 Protect our QB
#3 Protect our QB
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First 8 games 32 sacks - Abysmal
Last 8 games 19 sacks - OK, not great
Does anyone think Tauscher, Clifton and Wells are a guarentee to play all 16 games. Lang is the only backup who has shown potential. The rest are longshots at best.
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The draft this year has few guarenteed starters, but a lot of players with very good potential. If possible, they should trade down unless a guy like Thomas gets down to them. That's not likely. Trading down will not be easy either. Unless there is a body that someone below them needs desparately the likelihood of a trade down that will gain much value is not going to happen. Based on the fact that TT has avoided the FA's like the plague, his strategy has to be to look at this year's draft as a whole. I hope beyond hope that the top priority is Protecting the QB. Next, the DB's. Then everything else.
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McCluster's versatility may rate the #1 because Blackmon is not healing well and a returner may be necessary. I still think that an Olineman with good potential is the choice here.
April 10, 2010 at 06:52 pm
don't ever draft for need. you'll end up having even more needs. if a quality OT falls to the Pack - by all means GRAB HIM. if not... pick the guy rated highest on your board (unless he's a qb,k,p).
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stock
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pile
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talent
April 11, 2010 at 01:23 pm
That philosophy applies only when the talent available far exceeds the need. In this case the need will far exceed the talent that will be at 23.
April 11, 2010 at 01:47 pm
This is widely considered the deepest draft in two decades with 1st round talent deep into the 2nd round. I have no idea what your talking about when you say 'need will far exceed talent that will be at #23'.
April 12, 2010 at 03:11 pm
I don't think we're that far apart here. My view of first round talent is different in this way. There are probably 10 maybe 15 players that are instant impact guarentees (I know that's not possible). From mid-first to through the third there are a whole lot of very good players that have almost equal potential. In that group there are a number of Olinemen. The team needs an Olineman more than anything else. So, all other things equal you take the Olineman.
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Now, if a guy like Thomas falls to them, go for it. But it would have to be someone of that caliber.
April 10, 2010 at 05:21 pm
What about the Bengals? They have noone at safety besides the aging Roy Williams and Leon Hall and Johnathon Joseph are very injury prone. Thomas would be perfect for them if he played opposite Williams and took over at CB if anything happened to Joseph or Hall.
April 10, 2010 at 08:27 pm
The Bengals have even less at receiver and TE. The Bengals are a drafting enigma, considered 'riverboat gamblers' around the league. Care less about character and often go with need, not value.
April 10, 2010 at 05:21 pm
Seattle and Buffalo both have two picks before the Packers in the first round. Both teams need OT's and I would guess both teams will end up with a OT in round one. I think that makes the likelihood of an OT with a first round grade still available at #23 fairly low. Kindle is my guess.
April 10, 2010 at 05:36 pm
I don't think Buffalo has 2 1st rounders. You may be thinking of the 9'ers at 13 and 17?
GBP 4 LIFE
April 10, 2010 at 08:33 pm
Nothing against Kindle, but the kid is stiff. Read 'Movethesticks' blog, a former scout that said Kindle is a 'blitzer' and not a natural pass rusher. I agree with him. You need to manufacture opportunities for him through scheme or just ask him to run in a straight line. Jerry Hughes and Brandon Graham are ATHLETES and it shows in their linear movement. Kindle is stiff, stiff, stiff....
April 10, 2010 at 05:30 pm
Aaron, some food for thought. Every year I think (nobody else does) I have a great draft idea, here is this years.
Unless TT is in love with someone at 23, trade down and acquire extra 2nd plus. Use the lower 2 on Miami TE Jimmy Graham. The guy is 6'8".5 inches tall and runs the 40 in the 4.5s at 260 pounds. I watched him at the combine and was blown away. He uses his 11 inch hands to catch the ball away from his body to catch anything close. I think of the play sets that could be run with 2WR, 2TE and 1 back, both running and passing. Can you imagine having a bigger, faster, more athletic TE on the opposite side on Finley? Graham could immediately become the teams #5 WR and #2 TE, and special teams stud. I realize that his route running and blocking will be a work in progress but that could be easily schemed up. Think of the receivers we could line up both wide, in the slot, and at the line. How can you defend both Finley at 6'4" 1\2 and Graham at 6'8" 1\2 ? Oh and don't forget to add a 38" vertical to Graham's frame, at 260#. One last thought MM has done a great job with a brilliant TT pick in Finley. I think MM could revolutionize the 2 TE offense with Graham, and we would already have a replacement for Finley should he become too expensive in 2 years when his contract is up, he wants out or is injured.
Thank you
April 10, 2010 at 06:54 pm
love it.
April 10, 2010 at 08:09 pm
Finley is still young and still a little immature, how do you think that'll make him feel when he sees competition being bought in? I don't think that will help him grow and get better, I think that'll frustrate him and he'll take a step back. That's not a good idea in my opinion.
April 10, 2010 at 11:08 pm
I don't think just because a kid may be immature that you should decide not to stockpile his position. In fact, it would almost suggest the opposite. Now to be clear, I'm personally not walking into the draft thinking we need to get a tight end.
I'm just saying that you use the draft to get the best talent you can regardless of position. You trust your coaches to manage the personnel with some unique packages, and to massage any egos. We can run a lot of 2 TE sets of if the depth supports it. We've run them in the past with great success. Either way, Finley is getting a lot of snaps.
If the Packers like the draftable depth in the Oline and secondary enough, I'm not opposed to this kind of move. Of course, you have to see how it all plays out in front of us.
April 10, 2010 at 08:30 pm
I'm actually in agreement with Wes Bunting (Natinoal Football Post) on the TE position. If Aaron Hernandez (FL) walked into a Packers type of offense he would be OROY. More athletic than Dallas Clark, made even Eric Berry look stupid in the open field at times. Aaron Hernandez in a pass happy offense that creates space > Jimmy Graham.
April 10, 2010 at 09:48 pm
Totally agree on Hernandez. I wonder why he is so low on some peoples TE list (5th, 6th TE). Every time I watched Florida play that kid stood out, he is a play-maker. Doesn't have all the "measurables" desired at the position, he just makes plays. Sure his blocking could improve, you can say that for almost all TE's coming right out of college. He and Finley would be a sick combo.
April 10, 2010 at 11:11 pm
Because when Mayock et al evaluate and rank kids (especially TE) they include blocking as part of the package. What they don't (and can't because it's so speculative) do is consider what system will best exploit their talents and create ridiculous mismatches. Aaron Hernandez is that guy in any of the explosive passing offenses that have the ball out quickly. Think about this, Hernandez is so athletic that he assumed Percy Harvin's role in Florida's offense. What does that tell you?!? Kid plays hard and plays hurt. I'll say it again, more athletic version of Dallas Clark. He's a matchup nightmare.
April 10, 2010 at 10:49 pm
Goddammit CSS, you think EXACTLY like me. On Thomas, on Huges, on Hernandez...
Don't tell me you love Charles Brown and hates Taylor Mays too?
April 10, 2010 at 11:14 pm
I have Nate Allen from USF ahead of Mays as well. Go back and watch the Notre Dame game. Mays was an embarrassment. No instincts, can't diagnose, doesn't understand angles. And that's at a much slower collegiate speed. Dumber yet, I don't understand why people are calling for him to transition to linebacker ala Brian Urlacher? If he can't diagnose a play when at center field (in college no less) playing safety for the Trojans how the hell can he do it even closer to the line of scrimmage as a linebacker where you need to be even more decisive in the angles you take to the ball carrier.
Makes. Zero. Sense.
PackerAaron
April 10, 2010 at 09:54 pm
"Unless TT is in love with someone at 23, trade down and acquire extra 2nd plus"- this is so much easier written than actually done. That said, love the idea.
And don't forget, Chris wrote this post, not me. ;)
April 10, 2010 at 11:14 pm
Or unless someone unexpected 'slides' to TT.
April 11, 2010 at 01:25 pm
I'm glad TT is making the selections.
April 10, 2010 at 05:57 pm
I vote for Kindle or Graham over Hughes. Most draft boards that I've seen have the aforementioned Graham and Kindle ranked higher. Texas and Michigan play much tougher schedules than TCU which makes players from those programs better tested. That's not say you can't get a decent player from a less prestigious program, but I think the odds are worse for that to happen.
I don't think that there will be an OT left on the board that will be deserving of that pick since it looks like there is going to be a feeding frenzy for OT at the top of the draft.
Earl Thomas would be a great pick at 23 but too many things have to go our way for that to happen but you never know.
April 10, 2010 at 10:06 pm
"Most draft boards that I’ve seen have the aforementioned Graham and Kindle ranked higher."
And? It all depends where they'll be going and what they'll be asked to do.
For Graham, you are "projecting" him @ OLB, I myself am not sold on him having any coverage skills OR being a better "pass-rusher" than Jerry.
See CSS' post on kindle. Pretty well said.
Hughes is proven @ OLB, no "projection" needed. Of the 3, he's BY FAR the closest thing to a sure bet, for what he would be asked to do in our system.
GBP 4 LIFE
April 10, 2010 at 10:58 pm
It can also be said that "most draft boards" are all over the place for the 23 pick, so that's that was a pretty weak observation on my part anyway.
It may be my own personal bias against TCU. Remember the return man we drafted out of TCU? Rogers I think his name was. First he gets busted for an illegal firearm and then gets washed out of camp.
I live in Texas (from Wisconsin got stationed here by the Navy)in the DFW area and maybe I'm just overwhelmed by the hype concerning the Horned Frogs. That being said, I still think Graham can play OLB. He's fast enough and has good motor. Hughes is a second round guy.
April 10, 2010 at 11:21 pm
"Hughes is a second round guy."
You a gamblin' man? I sure the hell wouldn't bet the farm on that.
April 10, 2010 at 11:51 pm
I'm not saying his talent is at all. You have Mike Lombardi and Charley Casserly (former GM's), Daniel Jeramiah (Movethesticks former scout), Mike Mayock, Mel Kiper....all insiders that keep adding guys like Demyrius Thomas (GT WR) as an example, stating they now gaurantee they are sure fire 1st round picks. Problem is, there are only 32 slots and the 'insiders' are gauranteeing like 38 prospect?!?
I realize a lot of this is likely a smoke screen, but we know that there will be a big run on LT's, DB's and a possible reach for Cam Thomas (NC NT) or Terrance Cody (Ala. NT) due to the 3-4 transitions and nobody to man the middle.
I BELIEVE Hughes is a 1st round prospect, but with almost 50 guys capable of going in round 1 and the 'insiders' continuing to slot in about 38 I think a guy like Hughes might slide. Only because his ceiling is in year 3 vs. Kindle or Graham peaking earlier.
April 10, 2010 at 10:58 pm
Nobody has more motor than Huges in this draft. Graham has equal, but is stiffer than Huges. Kindle is reportedly SOFT. That's not to be cunfused with Dunlap, who's a flat-out bum. Kindle has some hustle. But he's a straight finesse rusher. And the Packers won't target that. Capers doesn't like it, and Greene hates it.
Graham to me is the 2nd best pass rusher in this draft (besides Morgan). But he hasn't played much standing up, and TT has already said he prefers experienced guys in the 3-4 OLB (CM3).
Huges is raw, but so was CM3. He has the motor, he has the athletic ability (4.69 40, better than Kindle and Graham; 6.99, outstanding 3-cone drill for a DL/LB), has the production (though lacks the competition), has the experience playing up...
Jerry Huges would be a great complement to CM3. Very similar players.
April 10, 2010 at 11:21 pm
Hughes isn't quite at Kindle or Graham's level at the point of attack against the run, YET (he has a ton of upside). What Hughes does have that neither of those two do are the most flexible, natural hips in coverage I've seen come out of college in quite some time. Hip flexibility/swivel is the name of the game in coverage. Hughes stop and go is sudden and abrupt in a backpeddle.
Kid had a prettier backpeddle than Joe Haden (I'm dead serious). Hughes upside in coverage is the reason his overall upside is so much better than Graham or Kindle. By year 3 in the pros I think it's no contest, Hughes overall game will outpace either both.
April 11, 2010 at 12:02 am
Completely agree. Graham and Kindle are better against the run. Actually, they're terrific against the run. Don't remember DE's (or OLBs) as good as them vs. the run comming out of college.
But what we need is someone to rush the passer. And he's better at OLB than them. And he's better at coverage.
To us, that have 3 DL that are WALLS against the run, it's not crucial for a prospect to play the run. It's crucial for him to be able to cover or rush the passer.
April 10, 2010 at 11:22 pm
yup.
April 11, 2010 at 01:46 am
Really, when it comes down to it, the board will drive the selection. Who's there and who is not. I trust TT will do the right thing. It's all such a crap shoot anyway.
You go back and look at Oakland's picks. Who would have thought guys like Jamarcus Russell and Daren McFadden would have turned out to be such non-factors in the NFL. You could throw in Tony Manderich in as well. Those guys were all thought to be "blue chip" selections.
Mostly this time of year is tough on football fans. We've got months before the season starts and nothing to do but have academic debates about who the pick will or should be. Give it a couple of weeks and all mysteries will be revealed.
What do you think about the new draft format?
April 11, 2010 at 06:03 am
"What do you think about the new draft format?"
I'm usually a purist, I liked the Sat/Sun format.
But, I've got so much Vacation, I need a reason like that to burn some (take off Fri, maybe even Thurs to get nice and lubed), I'm sure I'll love it after the trial run.
GBP 4 LIFE
April 11, 2010 at 08:35 am
Sorry wiscokid but i agree with fitzcore, css and packersrs jerry hughes will be a gamer and look really good in the green & gold.
April 10, 2010 at 11:02 pm
"He’s so flexible you could also look forward to more of Woodson flexing to the line of scrimmage where he truly creates value and earned last year’s MVP."
Can you imagine Superman roaming the left side and Thomas on the right? Both can play CB, S, LB. And then you have Collins, arguably a top-3 S in the league and Williams, who's a playmaker...
THE best secondary in the league, hands down. Capers would lick his chops, thinking of ways to use Superman and Thomas. The QB would never know who's dropping, who's rushing, who's covering man...
Mark my words, if we somehow get Thomas, our defense will NEVER allow 30+ points 400+ yards in a game. And with the kind of offense we have, we'll win the goddamm thing!
We'll have a MF 2011, though. Noone will be ready to play LT, and we'll probably have to rush in a rookie to protect AR's blind side.
But with the kind of D we'd have, I'm ok with that...
April 10, 2010 at 11:07 pm
BTW, Aaron. CSS is becoming to you what Jersey Al was to Alex Tallisch. I don't know if I praise you or warn you.
But kudos, CSS, or Chris Squire, don't know what to call you.
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Aaron, CSS, Mac, Holy... Quite a gang. If only Corey would rant a little more... But I'm pretty sure once the season kicks off, we'll see it...
April 11, 2010 at 01:31 am
Don't forget all of the regular commenters like yourself who make this site a great read all the way to the bottom of the page.
April 11, 2010 at 05:55 am
Bup.Bup.To.
The.Bang.
April 11, 2010 at 02:01 am
Here is some good news from Dallas. They are blowing up Texas Stadium tomorrow morning. It comes down Sunday,Apr. 11th at 7AM CDT. Anyone want me to save them a piece?
April 11, 2010 at 04:09 pm
It was nice to see that P.O.S. go down. Lots of bad things went down in that place (for the GBP that is).
Good riddance.
April 11, 2010 at 04:17 pm
I'm with you brother
April 11, 2010 at 07:35 pm
Here is a link of Texas Stadium going down if anyone wants to see it.
http://www.dallasnews.com/video/index.html?nvid=413666
April 11, 2010 at 02:59 am
I don't think the Packers should draft a TE high in light of other needs (not counting if a top one falls in their laps). The packers could draft a TE in later rounds. Lee had a lot of dropped balls last year.
April 11, 2010 at 03:26 am
I really like Hernandez, I think he's an athletic, YAC kind of TE.
But he's not a great blocker. I'd like us to get a blocking TE. But you're right, there're more pressing needs than a TE, with Jermichael, Spencer and Donald on the team...
April 11, 2010 at 05:53 am
Yup. A Hernandez pick would be pure luxury, not necessity (in the 1st that is).
April 12, 2010 at 05:12 pm
All this chatter re: TT taking a defensive player in the first round. It may very well be one of these three OFFENSIVE players: Charles Brown, Ryan Mathews or Golden Tate.
April 12, 2010 at 09:24 pm
You could be right. They could go OT in the first round instead of defense. It just seems that I hear more chatter about the lack of pass rush costing us the playoff game against the Cards, the Pittsburgh game and possibly the two losses against Minnesota. Coupled with the general feeling that there will be an early run on OTs early which may leave nothing but second tier prospects that will require development before they have any impact.
I don't think we would be looking at a receiver that early. That's not much of a "need" area.
Unless C.J. Spiller is available at 23 (which probably won't happen) they will most likely wait and pick up a speed guy that can return kicks later in the draft.
Really when you look at it, they almost have to go defense. I say that but I have no idea what TT board looks like. If there is somebody there that he really likes, he's going pick that guy and not care what side of the ball he plays on.