The last time the Packers played the Vikings was Week 1, when they got embarrassed 23-7. The Packers started Jake Hanson at right guard and Royce Newman at right tackle and neither David Bakhtiari or Elgton Jenkins played. Christian Watson dropped what would have been a 75-yard touchdown on the first play, but the real problems came on defense, where the secondary seemed specifically designed to give Justin Jefferson as much room to work as possible. Maybe things will be different this time.

WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL

The Vikings offense is tough to figure out.

They're 7th in the NFL in scoring, in large part because they average 10 points per game in the 4th quarter. Roughly 40% of their scoring comes in the 4th quarter. They are a late team that can fly up and down the field against prevent and/or tired defenses (the Packers seemed to be both all through their first meeting), but a middling crew through the first 3 quarters.

Their ineptitude through three quarters, combined with quick striking in the 4th quarter has netted them a league ranking of 28th in time of possession.

Kirk Cousins is having a career year, but he doesn't really seem like a better player - he's just getting an all-time season from Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson (who has 17 catches for 25 yards or more) is a dominant force and looks likely to set a new record for receiving yards in a season (possibly this afternoon).

No teams have shown the ability to really stop him - pressuring Kirk Cousins has proven to be the only way to limit him. Jefferson had low outputs against the Eagles (48 yards), Lions (14 yards), Cowboys (33 yards), and Jets (45 yards), who all applied heavy pressure and averaged 9 quarterback hits in those games.

The Vikings will be without starting center Garrett Bradbury again, and their interior blocking has been weak all year. Kenny Clark and Jarran Reed have been heating up recently, and Devonte Wyatt (who excels at interior disruption) looks like he will get more snaps with Dean Lowry (who is more of an edge contain lineman) on IR. Minnesota ranks 27th in sacks allowed, so the interior rushers should be licking their chops - and that includes Quay Walker. Interior pressure may be the key to the defense.

The other Vikings receivers (Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn) have been solid options, but midseason acquisition tight end TJ Hockenson has had a big impact on the offense. He came up to speed quickly and then broke out last week with 13 catches for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Giants. The Packers will need to account for him in their coverage scheme, which may prove difficult if Keisean Nixon (who is listed as Questionable) can't go.

On the ground, Dalvin Cook has quietly put together a good season with steady production, but hasn't broken open games like he has in the past. Minnesota has been cold on the ground lately, rushing for 100 yards only once in the last six games. Their passing game gets most of the attention, but in their 3 losses, they've been help to an average of 52 yards rushing. Stopping the run matters, even if it isn't the focus of their offense. De'Vondre Campbell has looked better as of late and will need to be a physical presence on inside runs. Quay Walker needs to chase fast on the outside runs, where the Packers need to contain the edge without Dean Lowry.

This is an offense that goes hot and cold within games and usually ends hot. The Packers need to play tight and tough for a full game, not like last week.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

The Vikings defense reminds me a lot of the Packers defense in that they have a lot of talent, but not great production.

Za'Darius Smith leads the NFL in hurries, ranks 2nd in pressures, and already has 10 sacks. Danielle Hunter leads the team with 10.5 sacks and has 3.5 in the last two games. Linebacker Eric Kendricks and defensive linemen Harrison Phillips and Dalvin Tomlinson have been having good years on the defensive front, as well.   

On the back end, Harrison Smith has been solid and Patrick Peterson is in the midst of an impressive rebound season for a 32 year old cornerback.

But with all that talent, the Vikings defense (statistically speaking), has been terrible. They rank 31st in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed.

For all the talent they have, they aren't getting a lot of production. However, they perfectly complement their anemic offense.

Despite giving up a lot of yards, they rank 8th in takeaways, which is what keeps them in games.

In their 3 losses, they lost the turnover battle 6-1.

Turnovers played a major role in the first meeting between these teams, too. The Packers lost the turnover battle 2-0 and also turned the ball over on downs twice in the red zone.

The Packers offense needs to hang on to the ball if they want to win today.

Having good blocking will go a long way to letting Rodgers get comfortable in the pocket so he isn't rushing balls that become interceptions or getting strip sacked. David Bakhtiari's return will be a welcome sight and Yosh Nijman will be tested.

The Vikings have shown a willingness to give up yards through the air and on the ground. With cold temperatures, the Packers can lean on AJ Dillon (don't believe any analytics that tell you he isn't a cold weather back). Aaron Jones has been injured and limited in practice for months, so he may need to be used sparingly. New promotion Patrick Taylor and fresh callup Tyler Goodson could also get it on the action.

Minnesota's defense is built on a pair of strong edge rushers. The Packers could run right at the edge, using all their backs to attack Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter, wearing them down and slowing the pass rush. This can set up the 4th quarter run game as well as opening up the passing game.

Through the air, Christian Watson gives them a great deep threat. This should keep the coverage loose enough to limit tight windows and hold onto the ball.

If the Packers can play consistent and mistake-free on offense, they should be able to limit momentum swinging plays from the Minnesota defense.

If they play solid defense and control the ball late to hold back any frantic 4th quarter comebacks, that should be enough to win.

OTHER NOTES

The Vikings have the 4th fewest penalties in the league.

The Vikings have a well-earned reputation for winning close games, but their 3 losses have come by a combined 56 points - when they lose, they lose big.

Keisean Nixon leads the NFL in kick return yardage, but Minnesota's Kene Nwangwu is in second place.

Vikings kicker Greg Joseph is perfect on field goals under 50 yards, but just 3 of 8 on kicks 50 yards or longer (and today's conditions aren't amenable to long game-winning kicks).

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is a critical game with both teams playing with momentum. The Packers are finally starting to warm up and the Vikings believe they can come back from anything (because they pretty much have).

The Vikings have won games with big plays on offense and defense. Green Bay needs to play steady, consistent offense and protect the ball, while avoiding a huge day from Justin Jefferson on defense.

It sounds so simple, and the Packers are more than capable.

Will they do it?

It seems like a toss up that should be an entertaining contest.

With four running backs on the active roster, they could go with a run heavy attack to avoid getting in a shootout, which is where Minnesota excels. At the end of the day, I expect the Packers to find a way to pull this one out. They need to feed off crowd energy for 3rd down defense (which they couldn't do in Week 1) and run a steady chain-moving offense (which they should be able to do with everyone relatively healthy).

One more week on this improbable run.

Packers 27, Vikings 25