Packers vs. Saints: 5 Things You Could Watch But Certainly Don't Have To

The Green Bay Packers welcome the New Orleans Saints to Lambeau Field in Week 4. Is it do or die for both teams, this early? Our preview gives you an answer.

A season ago, the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints combined for 28 wins and just four losses in the regular season and featured quarterbacks who led historically good offenses by putting up historically significant statistical years.

In rhythm with one of the wackier starts to a season in recent memory, the two teams, who face off Sunday in a Week 5 matchup at Lambeau Field, have already combined to lose five games this season in part because their quarterbacks have sputtered through difficult starts to 2012.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers set an NFL record with a 122.5 passer rating last season, but he currently sits at just 87.0 in 2012—good for 16th-best in the NFL. An MVP who burned NFL defenses to the ground with a down-field passing game last season has been reduced to a dink-and-dunker ranked near Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill in yards per attempt in 2012.

New Orleans knows all too well how difficult getting wins can be without its leader paving the way.

Drew Brees, the Saints quarterback who broke Dan Marino's NFL record for passing yards with 5,476 in 2011, is a lowly 25th in the NFL in passer rating at 77.0. He's already thrown five interceptions and is completing just 54.7 percent of his passes.

Through three games, Brees has been unable to mask the kind of defensive issues that would make even the 2011 Packers blush.

The season is still young, but New Orleans is currently allowing 477.3 yards (last in the NFL) and 34 points (31st) a game in 2012. Teams are passing for 262.3 yards and rushing for a whopping 215.

Even with a struggling Packers offense on the opposite sidelines, New Orleans needs to pull off some kind of turn around to fix that unit by Sunday. If the Saints don't, and the Packers win Sunday, history comes into play in a big way.

From a win-loss perspective, Sunday's outcome couldn't be more important. Since the new playoff format was put into place in 1990, 21 teams—including the 2004 Packers—have made the playoffs after starting a season 1-3. Only one, the 1992 San Diego Chargers, made the postseason after starting 0-4.

The odds are long either way, but an 0-4 start may all but eliminate the Saints in 2012. For the Packers, a 1-3 start would be a large hurdle to traverse, but not an insurmountable one. The most Green Bay could be out in the NFC North by the start of Week 5 is two games. A 12-week gauntlet remains, win or loss Sunday.

Here are five other things you could watch Sunday:

 

1. First real test

Through three games, the Packers defense is ranked first in passing yards allowed (125/game), third in total yards (261/game) and seventh in points (18.0). Each number is a far cry from the defensive disaster that was the 2011 season.

But for all the improvements that appear to be tangible, much remains unknown about this defense after just three games. Sunday's matchup with Brees and the Saints offense represents the first true test for a new-look unit.

Brees should go after rookies Jerron McMillian and Casey Hayward, both inexperienced players who have been relatively untested through their first two weeks as the nickel safety and dime cornerback, respectively. Sunday will challenge both rookies physically and mentally.

And while the Saints running game has fallen off statistically to start 2012, the interior offensive line remains very good. New Orleans also still possesses three ball-carriers capable of handling a big role against the NFL's 26th-ranked run defense.

How the Packers defense holds up Sunday should give a better indication of where this unit is currently at. There's obvious promise that shouldn't go overlooked, but the Packers haven't faced an offense as capable as the Saints so far in 2012.

 

2. Going 'right' after Brees

A matchup to watch on the defensive side of the ball is outside linebackers Nick Perry and Erik Walden against Saints right tackle Zach Strief.

After winning the starting job in camp, Strief has been painful to watch for New Orleans through three games. He's allowed at least two hurries in each contest, and Sunday's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs saw Strief give up two sacks, one quarterback hit and three hurries against second-year player Justin Houston.

With Clay Matthews likely getting extra attention against Jermon Bushrod on the other side, the Packers could receive an active pass-rushing performance from off the left side.

The two in charge should be Perry and Walden, who have platooned snaps at left outside linebacker since Walden's return. Walden is playing better right now while the rookie adjusts. But a breakout performance from Perry isn't out of the question, especially if his wrist is getting closer to 100 percent.

 

3. Switch in philosophy?

Mike McCarthy frequently talks about how the flow of games dictates his use of the running game. With an an explosive passing offense, that methodology has been understandable. Sunday against the Saints, however, McCarthy should be willing to feature Cedric Benson and a healthy James Starks in a more prominent role, especially early.

Green Bay likely won't approach the Saints average allowance of an NFL-worst 215 rushing yards a game, but there should be an opportunity to establish the run game and take some pressure off the Packers struggling pass protection. The playaction passing game should also be available for the first time all season, too.

There's going to be a itch from everyone involved to go for the haymaker against this struggling Saints defense, but delivering some early jabs with the running games will help the Packers later land those knockout punches that have been missing in 2012. A first half with just three running plays won't be acceptable Sunday.

 

4. Saints matchup tandem

There appears to be just two players who represent matchup problems for the Packers defense, and neither are a wide receiver. With Marques Colston slowing down and battling injury and Robert Meachem in San Diego, running back Darren Sproles and tight end Jimmy Graham are the Saints two best offensive playmakers.

Sproles, who rushed for 603 yards last season, has just seven carries through three games in 2012. All seven came in Week 3 against the Chiefs. Sproles also has a game this season with 13 catches, but he was held to zero last Sunday for the first time in his career with the Saints. He caught 86 passes out of the backfield last season.

Expect a more balanced touch-ratio against the Packers. Just a season ago in Green Bay, Sproles received two carries and caught seven passes for 75 yards, including a 36-yarder in which he ran an angle route and left A.J. Hawk in the dust. The Saints have to get him in space, especially against the Packers slow-footed linebackers.

Graham, at 6-7 and 265 pounds, is arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL. He's everything the Packers thought they had in Jermichael Finley potential-wise, but Graham has actually made good on his overwhelming promise. Graham led all tight ends with 99 catches and 1,310 yards in 2011.

Through three games, however, Graham is just eighth among tight ends in receiving yards with 172. That said, Graham has caught a touchdown pass in each game and now has an eight-game scoring streak dating back to last season. He's un-coverable in the red zone area, and no tight end in football has more red zone targets this season.

Fellow tight ends Vernon Davis (43 yards, touchdown) and Kellen Davis (21 yards, touchdown) had moments against the Packers defense in 2012, so expect Brees to look to any matchup against Graham Sunday. Green Bay is in trouble if young linebacker D.J. Smith is asked to cover Graham at any point one-on-one.

5. Emotionally charged

Emotion in a football game is such a hard thing to evaluate, but there may not be a more emotionally-charged game on the Week 4 schedule than Packers-Saints.

New Orleans should play with its back to the wall, as falling to 0-4 would be the start of the end to any playoff aspirations. This team also probably feels it can play with the Packers on the road after nearly forcing overtime in Green Bay a season ago.

If emotion is a problem for the Packers following Monday night, Green Bay has deeper issues to address. Just as long as McCarthy helped to channel the overwhelming frustration into focus and intensity this week, the Packers should be prepared to pounce on a dying team.

Prediction

There's no more excuses for the Packers offense. New Orleans will allow room in the running game, and this isn't the kind of four-man defensive line that can consistently generate its own pressure against Rodgers. If this offense sputters again, the 2012 Packers are in big trouble. I don't anticipate that scenario happening. This offense is too good not to click eventually, and there's no better matchup than Sunday. Brees could have a big game and push this into another shootout, but the Saints offensive line isn't what it used to be. The Packers pressure and turn over Brees, equaling a three-score win for a team that has its rallying call for the 2012 season.

Packers 35, Saints 17 (Season record: 0-3)

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Comments (13)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
FITZCORE 1252'S EVO's picture

September 28, 2012 at 03:23 pm

I can dig it.

GBP 4 LIFE

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Evan's picture

September 28, 2012 at 03:29 pm

I think the Packers D deserves a bonus if they keep Brees from tying Unitas' record.

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Rocky70's picture

September 28, 2012 at 03:46 pm

Really good synopsis.
If GB's "D" has actually improved over season 2011, then GB should win going away. If GB's "D" is still 'finding itself' then Brees may come in & light it up to the tune of another shoot-out similar to last year's 42-34 "arena type" game. The season's just too young to draw too many solid conclusions.

Funny how 1-3 would only be good for New Orleans after this game.

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cow42's picture

September 28, 2012 at 05:03 pm

i will eat my hat if they score 35.

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2 share owner's picture

September 29, 2012 at 09:01 am

Yes and we will see you at Thanksgiving!

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PackersRS's picture

September 29, 2012 at 09:37 am

I expect pictures.

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Kparis99's picture

September 30, 2012 at 07:44 am

Cow42 is finally starting to irk me. At first I thought is was funny how everyone would get fired up about his comments. I couldn't wait to read what cow posted. Now I'm tired of it.

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Rocky70's picture

September 30, 2012 at 10:47 am

Doubt cow42 posts anything to please anyone. He expresses himself. It's one of the rights of being "Born in the USA".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHc9PE-Fftc

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TheDon's picture

September 28, 2012 at 05:03 pm

I think we will see a huge turn around in the offense now that receivers are able to release off the line without getting mugged.

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Brian's picture

September 28, 2012 at 10:24 pm

+1

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FITZCORE 1252'S EVO's picture

September 29, 2012 at 03:54 pm

I'm counting on it.

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Nerd's Laptop's picture

September 28, 2012 at 08:17 pm

Is Starks healthy now?

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woodson4president's picture

September 28, 2012 at 10:53 pm

Yeah i like it all minus starks coming back. Maybe a small dose wouldnt hurt, but Benson is just getting comfortable with us and i think we should keep feeding him the rock!

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