Packers vs. Cowboys: Divisional Round Rant & Raves

The Green Bay Packers return to the home of an old playoff foe from the mid 1990's and a week after exorcizing the headache that was the New York Giants, will try to do the same with the Dallas Cowboys.  These surely aren't the same Cowboys teams that terrorized the Packers and their fans over 20 years ago.  Those Cowboys featured Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders.  A Hall of Fame list if there ever was one and there were others beyond that.  This time, Aikman will be there, but he'll be up in the booth doing play-by-play with Joe Buck.  All the sweeter if the Packers can pull off the upset and move on to their second conference championship game in three years.

Beyond the history of two decades ago, this game has more parallels to a more recent past.  I know many are tired of the comparisons to the 2010 team that snuck into the playoffs and took the league by storm on their way to their fourth Super Bowl title, but facts are facts.  This team, like the 2010 team, essentially had to win their last game to finish where they did (although this team would have been in regardless of the outcome of that game against the Lions) and earn a postseason spot.  They both finished 10-6.  In this divisional round they are traveling to play the #1 seed on the road indoors on turf.  OK, that's about all I got.

The Cowboys will tough challenge for these Packers and let's take a look at the up and down side of the match up.

Rants

Rookie Walls

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott have both had outstanding rookie campaigns to propel Dallas to the top seed in the NFC and overcome what seemed to be a season-changing injury to Tony Romo during the preseason.  Behind an excellent run blocking offensive line, Elliott racked up over 1,600 yards, over 300 yards more than the next closest rusher.  Prescott performed so well that when Romo was healthy enough to return, the veteran was relegated to holding a clipboard and letting the hot hand ride out the season.

Much is being made of how both Elliott and Prescott, despite their gaudy 2016 seasons, are still rookies and may fall victim to the rookie wall or the big difference between the regular season and the postseason.  It's a valid question, but the evidence that we've seen all season long doesn't lend itself to seeing vastly different players come Sunday's game.  Elliott is big-game tested after years at Ohio State and playing in a national championship game.  Prescott also saw some big games of his own at Mississippi State.  If nothing else, this game being played in Dallas in front of the home crowd so there will be an element of familiarity on their side.  They're also not having to deal with the elements and can concentrate on doing what they do so well: control the clock.

My take on this game has been largely predicated on how the Packers defense stops the Cowboys offense and the bulk of that equation lies in these two players.  If they can somehow force Dallas into throwing and getting pressure on Prescott, they can turn the tide quickly.  Prescott threw his first interception against the Packers and Green Bay has been taking the ball away in bunches over this last month.  Against the ball control offense, expect to see the Packers secondary take more chances in getting after the ball this week.  It may cost them, but in a tough road game where possessions come at a premium, Green Bay has to try and steal one or two.

That theory may prove utopian if you're purely basing it off of what Prescott and Elliott did the first time these teams faced each other.  Zeke had 28 rushes for 157 yards but was held out of the end zone.  Prescott threw for 250 yards, three touchdowns and a rating of 117.4.  The Packers turned the ball over four times, which helped Dallas stay on track, but when they had the ball, the Cowboys made enough hay.  Can they do it again against the Packers offense that is churning just as well?

More Rabbit, Less Hare

Fortunately this point only goes back a week.  The Packers stammered through much of the first half of last week's wild card game against the New York Giants, not putting up any points until later in the second quarter.  The Giants also squandered at least one if not two legitimate opportunities to get into the end zone prior to that.  That could have changed the flow and complexion of the game.  Thanks to a Hail Mary at the half and a dynamite second half, those thoughts were quickly forgotten.

Prior to that, the Packers had been scoring in bunches and despite some late-game charges by the opposition, the Packers had been playing more complete games on the offensive side of the ball.  It would seem that Green Bay can do the same this week, as the Cowboys defense isn't supposed to be as potent as New York's.  Those things that show up on paper aren't always reality when the players take the field.  Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is a no nonsense guy who has been around for a while and is familiar with Aaron Rodgers, having been head coach of the Detroit Lions during Rodgers' rookie season of 2008 (Marinelli's last in Detroit after an 0-16 season).  

But with an extra week to prepare, expect the Cowboys to pull out all of the stops and bring everything they can to ensure a trip to the conference championship the following week.  Despite a lack of star-studded names on the defensive side, the Dallas defense has done enough to keep the Cowboys winning and earn the top seed.  If they're able to stymie the Packers early on and give the ball back to the offense, it could spell a recipe that Green Bay isn't keen on at all.  The Packers need to score first, score early and score often.  Likely to see fewer possessions, Green Bay has to put up points in some fashion nearly each time they have the ball.

Dez Dropped It?

What if he doesn't this time?  Bryant had just 50 catches and eight touchdowns in 13 games this season.  He's not getting the ball nearly as much as he has in the recent past.  In 2014, the season he faced the Packers in the divisional round playoffs, Bryant had 1,320 yards and 16 touchdown catches.  But, as I mentioned, earlier, the playoffs are a different animal.  Bryant is still one of the best receivers in the game and can turn up in a big game in a hurry.  The Packers secondary will already have its hands full trying to help in run support.  Having to also contain one of the game's premiere talents is a lot to ask.  It's even more to ask when it's being asked of LaDarius Gunter, a street free agent and Damarious Randall, a second year safety-turned-corner who has struggled on multiple occasions this season.  

Everyone is talking about Prescott and Elliott, but I can see Bryant coming up big, maybe late in the game to steal one in the end zone for a big go ahead score.  Bryant didn't play in the game earlier this season and didn't play well in last year's blowout loss to the Packers in Green Bay.  After the last playoff showing against the Packers, Bryant is going to be looking to write a new legacy and push the "drop" further back in the history books and in the minds of fans.

Raves

The Answer

This section really only needs one header.  Aaron Rodgers is "the answer".  Whatever is facing the Packers, Rodgers can answer it, mitigate it, counter it, or capitalize on it.  The old adage since 2008 "as long as the Packers have Rodgers, they have a chance to win" still rings true.  For a period this season, that was in question as Rodgers and the rest of the team hit a bad lull where nothing was working.  Suddenly, everything was back to form and the Green Bay offense was humming like it had in 2014.  The reason?  Rodgers.  Sure, you can point to Ty Montgomery taking on a new role and providing a new wrinkle that defenses had to account for.  Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams both sitting atop the league leaders with 26 combined touchdown catches.  An offensive line that, even when the team was struggling, has been in the same conversation with Dallas's group.  But when the dust clears, it's all about #12.

Last week when the Packers chose to go for it on fourth down and foolishly gave the ball to Montgomery to run straight into the teeth of a Giants defense that was ready and gave no indication that they would surrender the measly yard needed, many wondered why the ball wasn't in Rodgers' hands.  If you were one of them, you're not alone.  We have to hope that as we move deeper into this playoff run, the Packers don't out think themselves and just let Rodgers do his thing in crunch time.

Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception since mid November but has a bunch of touchdown passes and a few runs during that time.  In the first meeting with Dallas, Rodgers turned the ball over twice.  He threw one interception and lost a fumble.  He had a second fumble that was recovered by the Packers.  Think ball security is a key focus for Green Bay this week?  They only lost by 14 in October.  Four fewer turnovers can flip that result in a hurry.

What's Cook-in?

Last week against the Giants and without Nelson, it was Randall Cobb who stepped in big time with three touchdown catches to propel the offense.  This week much has been said about the opportunity that tight end Jared Cook may have, given the Cowboys' troubles with tight ends this season.  Cook has become a reliable and valuable target since his return from a foot injury but he has yet to have a "wow" type of game.  With as much as the Packers would want to exploit Cook on the Dallas secondary, Dallas is going to likely counter with an answer.  Can the Packers and Cook accomplish the obvious?  If they do, the Packers may get up early and surprise many who think the Cowboys have this game easily in hand.  Cook being a story line in this game comes down to the player being ready to seize the moment, to Rodgers being ready to go his way and to the game plan to get him involved and open.

A Highly Successful NFL Head Coach

That's what Mike McCarthy said he was earlier this season and it's been proven time and time again in the decade that he's been coaching in Green Bay.  From 4-6 to 10-6, a division title and another playoff win, McCarthy should at least get the benefit of the doubt.  When the pressure is on, he tends to come up with a way or give his team a chance to win a big game.  This week's game would rank among McCarthy's biggest accomplishments if he can help lead the Packers to a win over Dallas.  A big road playoff win against a team that beat them earlier in the season and had home field advantage locked up throughout the postseason.  McCarthy's Packers did it to the Atlanta Falcons in 2010 and they're in position to do it again this season.

After befuddling offensive game plans and schemes earlier this season, the Packers have been doing what makes sense.  They've been taking what is in front of them and turning that into win after win.  They turned Montgomery into a running back, added Christine Michael when James Starks showed he was done, and started spreading the ball around.  Adams burst onto the scene and the offense got a spark from tight end Jared Cook when he returned from a foot injury and from Geronimo Allison off the practice squad.  Drives that have been eating up clock, keeping opposing offenses on the sideline and piling up points on the scoreboard.  Surely the Dallas defense wants their say in whether or not the Packers enjoy any of that this week, but it won't be without a solid and trustworthy game plan by McCarthy and crew.

Speaking of his crew, Dom Capers is going to need to pitch a big game himself.  One of the league's best offenses with a secondary that has seen plenty of up and down moments.  If there's anything to draw back on, it may be the job Capers and his defense did against Atlanta earlier this season.  Falcons receiver Julio Jones was hurt during that game, but he was held largely in check that day when the Packers had neither Randall nor Quinten Rollins.  Different offenses, but to be able to point to a "remember when we. . " moment could give these young corners a boost.  That and Randall actually being in uniform helps, too.

All That's Left. . . 

Is to play this one out.  There is plenty of reason to believe the Packers can leave Dallas with a win and on to the next round.  I haven't mentioned that the Packers won't have Nelson for this game yet.  Not because it's not a big loss, but because there are so many components to this game and while he's a key player, he's not a game tilter.  That may end up being debated once this one is over with and if the result is less than favorable, but as mentioned earlier, Rodgers has been finding ways to get more out of all of his weapons this season.  If they have to be in this position, Green Bay is at the very least extremely lucky to have a quarterback who can turn the loss of a top receiver into a non issue.  The only thing Rodgers doesn't do is play defense so those 11 guys will have to elevate their game on their own.  Trust they'll be ready.  This is the playoffs.

It. Is. Time.  Do or die Sunday afternoon in Jerry Jones's playground against the Boys.  Get your popcorn ready! 

 

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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts.  You can follow him on Twitter here

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Comments (29)

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DrealynWilliams's picture

January 14, 2017 at 02:59 pm

"What's cook-in'" Nice.

I wonder who the Cowboys plan on doubling (if anyone) this game. Does having a healthy Cook not allow that? Serious question.

I'm also interested in seeing if the Cowboys will throw out that 3-2-6 formation since we now have a healthy Cook plus Montgomery. Although the plays resulted in incomplete passes vs. that look in our last meeting, Rodgers, who is back playing at his MVP level, had PLENTY of time AND OPEN receivers.

Each time I go over the last game the more confident I am going into this game.

EDIT: Oh yea, what's the latest on Blake? Clay at ILB (unless he's blitzing scares the sh*t out of me)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

January 14, 2017 at 04:42 pm

Martinez was a full participant in the Wednesday practice. He does not appear on the injury list. He should be healthy.

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tobinrote's picture

January 14, 2017 at 03:01 pm

bryant? i see beasley and witten giving us way more trouble.

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MITM's picture

January 14, 2017 at 06:31 pm

My thoughts exactly, Beasley especially.

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Savage57's picture

January 15, 2017 at 06:48 am

The biggest game tilter. How well or how poorly the Packers defend their "Kryptonite Land" - the area of the field from 5-15 yards deep between the hashes, might well be the key pivot point of this game.

It is, and has been for the longest time, the Packers defense weakest area. Where opposing receivers find themselves with 3-4 yard cushions, chasers take horrible angles when they finally do arrive and typically turn routine short throws into 20+ yard gains.

The ILB's and the DB's can't cover it, nor can Micah Hyde. It's as if Dom Capers, Joe Whitt, Winston Moss and Darren Perry haven't heard about stack formations, pick plays and rubs yet.

Who's going to rise to that challenge? Because if I'm Jason Garrett, I hit that area of the field again and again until the Packers prove they can take it away.

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cheddarhead's picture

January 14, 2017 at 08:07 pm

I think Rodgers got better after Jordy went down. It forced him to check down his other talented receivers. And they didn't disappoint.
They need to exploit the middle of the field with Cook. And win the TOP.

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pooch's picture

January 14, 2017 at 11:42 pm

okay then

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NickPerry's picture

January 15, 2017 at 11:49 am

There's an interesting piece on Acme Packing Company about what a healthy Jared Cook means to Rodgers. It's not so much Cooks stats but Rodgers that drastically improve.

The most important is the win/loss record. With Cook 9-2. Without Cook 2-4.

Touchdown passes..With Cook 29. Without Cook 15

Interceptions...With Cook 1. Without Cook 6...(That's huge IMO)

It's an interesting read. Here's the link..

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2017/1/15/14269086/pack...

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DrealynWilliams's picture

January 15, 2017 at 12:20 pm

Thanks for that article.

That's exactly how I'm looking at this game. I don't understand why any Packers fan would be "worried" about this game. I'm not saying the game is an automatic win, but I'm sure the confidence in the Packers locker room is as high (or higher than) the Cowboys' locker room.

Also, this is why I asked does a healthy Cook not allow opponents to double-team any one particular receiver. We seen it against the Giants. Jordy went down (our #1 WR), and our slot WR (#3) tore the Giants up afterwards. Why wasn't he doubled? Their best slot corner left the game on the Pack's first series.

Is this the game the Cowboys try it and get burned by Cook? Do the Cowboys continue to single cover across the board and keep the Safeties back -- which should lead to an easy day for Montgomery? We'll see.

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pooch's picture

January 14, 2017 at 11:42 pm

when was rhe last time Green Bay won in Dallas in a playoff game?

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NickPerry's picture

January 15, 2017 at 06:00 am

Considering Rodgers was in Jr. High School and many of his teammates might have been just entering preschool, do you really think that's a point worth mentioning?

Different time, team, and stadium, a stadium the Packers are 2-0 in.

The Packers have played exactly ONE playoff game IN Jerryworld. That would be SB45 which they won.

Just saying pooch...

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pooch's picture

January 15, 2017 at 09:42 am

But not against Dallas

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Since'61's picture

January 15, 2017 at 08:50 am

It may be back in 1966 when Lombardi's Packers defeated Dallas 34-27 on a great goal line stand and a great play be Dave Robinson resulting in a Packer interception in the end zone to seal the game. Thanks, Since '61

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MarkinMadison's picture

January 15, 2017 at 10:27 am

too small of a sample size to matter.

Dallas is not Seattle.

Don't fear Jerry world.

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pooch's picture

January 14, 2017 at 11:44 pm

Dallas under rated defense,Green Bay will have no run game

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NickPerry's picture

January 15, 2017 at 08:46 am

The Packers win as long as they don't have any turnovers. They fumbled 5 times losing 3 in the first game and Rodgers had an interception. 4 turnovers isn't going to cut it, eventually ANY defense is going to begin to collapse after 4 turnovers. Even if the Packers don't create a turnover, I think the defense can force enough punts and allow the offense to do it's thing.

Dallas doesn't have a great defense and Rodgers is in the middle of his most impressive stretch of his career IMO. If Dallas plays that 3-2-6 defense expect Ripper, Montgomery, and Michaels to be VERY effective. When Dallas goes to a more traditional run defense formation Rodgers will pick them apart. Thing is the Packers can really do both with the same personal on the field.

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pooch's picture

January 15, 2017 at 09:44 am

Pooch is big Packer fan but Pooch looking at this game as football fan not Packer fan

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MarkinMadison's picture

January 15, 2017 at 10:29 am

pooch making no real arguments

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Free agent's picture

January 15, 2017 at 10:01 am

Nothing would make Rodgers happier than to beat Dallas and shut up that dipshit Dallas Cowboys loving Skip Clueless. Love to see that happen today.
Go Pack Go!

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NickPerry's picture

January 15, 2017 at 01:30 pm

I'd give you 100 thumbs up for that if I could. I can't stomach Bayless for ANY period of time. When the Cowboys lost in Green Bay it was 101 excuses why Dallas lost, mostly about the the Dez Bryant DROP!!

What Dallas fans ALWAYS leave out is Dallas allowed Green Bay to move right down the field and burn up the remaining 4 minutes or so on the clock. Three first downs later, the last just seconds after the 2 minute warning and Dallas was going home. Not to mention a one legged QB did it to them.

Bayless is a nut. He's the Sports Media version of Howard Stern, a "Shock Jock" and nothing more. Stern is actually quite bright, intelligent and funny, Bayless is like a zit on your ass. He makes his living being more obnoxious than everybody else.

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MarkinMadison's picture

January 15, 2017 at 10:39 am

I believe that Capers has the ability to confuse young quarterbacks and I think it will happen today. It is the veteran QBs who have been there and done that that typically exploit an undermanned Capers defense. Gunter has been played well against receivers like Dez Bryant. On the flip side if the Packers do not turn over the ball there is nothing scary about this Dallas D. When you consider with AR did to the Giants D after Jordy went out of the game, you have to be in awe of his level of play right now. Packers 41-24.

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EdsLaces's picture

January 15, 2017 at 11:52 am

Games like this make me wish Steven A. was still on the show with Skip.... Only people to fear are Zeke and Cole. Lock them down and prepare for ATL!! Go pack go!!

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Flow49's picture

January 15, 2017 at 02:24 pm

I don't think the question is do the rookies have what it takes to deal with the pressure of a playoff game. I think the real question is can they resume mid season form after not participating at game speed for 3 weeks. The margin or error and skill set are so close at the professional level that the prolonged absence from game speed can effect even polished hall of fame players a la the 15-1 Packers. Will Dak and Zeke be on our point out of the gate? If not they may not have the time to shake off the rust if Rodgers continues to roll. Packers 37 Cowboys 28, go pack go!!!!!

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Nerd's picture

January 15, 2017 at 07:29 pm

Mike just cannot stand to have ANY margin of error at all. How many coaches lose THAT many playoff games in OT? It's unreal.

This season was a case in point. NO REASON whatsoever we had to piss away all margin of error, to the point where we had to win 7 in a row just to get into the playoffs. This game is also a microcosm. JUST ACCEPT THE LEAD, Mike. It doesn't always have to be this damn close.

Look what happened in '09. Sure, we squeaked by in '10, but we've pissed all those years away since. Get up, build a lead and hold it. There's no need to psychologically melt down and put ourselves into these situations. I'm glad we won, but I'm getting sick of it.

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guenaj15's picture

January 15, 2017 at 07:40 pm

You know... the other team is generally trying to win the game as well.
And in this case, its a very talented team.

"I'm glad we won, but I'm getting sick of it."

--OKAY

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Nerd's picture

January 15, 2017 at 07:45 pm

How many times has Mike lost in OT in the playoffs? That's not normal.

How many times do Mike's teams shit themselves early in the year, then have to rally hard just to squeak into the post season?

Yeah, we won today, so I guess that makes it ok, right? We won in '10 too. But not in '07, '09, '11, '12, '13, '14 and '15. Remember the '14 and '15 games in particular?

Wouldn't it be great if Mike could work on this? Put some teams away man. Win some games, get some MARGIN OF ERROR. Hell, see if you can earn a week of rest and Home Field Advantage. Wtf man.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

January 15, 2017 at 07:47 pm

YES!! YES!! YES!! GOD Loves Me, He Really Loves Me!!.
I'm having a Wonderful day!! THANK YOU GOD!! THANK YOU!! GREEN BAY!! THANK YOU!! AR!! THANK YOU COOK!! & THANK YOU MASON CROSBY who I've criticized for 9 years. GOD really LOVE ME!!.

COW, What have you got to say now?? I've got a Brinks Truck coming over. I need some help. GOD REALLY LOVES ME!! I'M HAVING A WONDERFUL DAY. THANK YOU GREEN BAY PACKERS!!
LVT

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Finwiz's picture

January 15, 2017 at 08:16 pm

That is the BEST kicker in Packer history, including Jan Stenerud. Anyone want to argue with me? The pressure to hit those THREE kicks, THREE, is totally incredible! What an amazing performance, I can't imagine what it takes to do something like that.

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JacFrost's picture

January 15, 2017 at 10:20 pm

Hey, this was a very good dallas team. Thes werent bums we beat, best recod in the nfc. They played welp we played better. We beat a classy team by flat out out playing them. bravo packers.

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