Packers Question of the day - Surprised by Nelson's Showing?
This is a pretty lame question, but the sole purpose of it being asked is because I truthfully didn't expect the returning Jordy Nelson to have six catches.
While six catches isn't very many at all, that's a pretty wide sampling size for a wide receiver's first game back on the field since tearing his ACL over a year ago.
Are you surprised he had as many receptions as he did, and do you think him being on the field will actually help the offense? The renowned narrative is that Nelson being back will open up the underneath work for Randall Cobb and company, but were the struggles the Packers faced in the early goings of their game against the Jaguars a matter of shaking off the rust, or a sign of deeply-rooted problems in the scheme?
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Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].
Comments (53)
Handsback
September 12, 2016 at 09:09 am
Some of Jordy's looks came at the expense of Cook which is unfortunate since he seemed to be open a lot.
jeremyjjbrown
September 12, 2016 at 11:51 am
Unfortunately being open in the middle of the field in the Packers offense is still a lot less likely to provoke a target than being covered on the edges.
Until they fix this the Packers Offense is going to struggle to return to dominate form.
Tundraboy
September 12, 2016 at 02:07 pm
Why do you think that is? Just curious.
jeremyjjbrown
September 12, 2016 at 03:40 pm
I think it because of the last 16 or so games going back to Denver.
One or Two things are happening here. Rodgers just does not want to throw over the middle. Maybe it is the INT thing, I'm not sure. Mike is not calling plays to get guys open over the middle.
Basically right now the Packers Passing game is largely based on 2 idioms. Throw the ball deep down the edges on iso routes, throw the ball to the shallow edge on WR screens. Once and while McCarthy tries to make the defense a little bit more honest by running Cobb out of the backfield.
They almost never throw the ball up the seam. This let's the other team send their Safeties wherever they want, usually up the field or spread wide and that let's the Corners play tight because they know they have quick help if they are beat on man or press coverage. And Man or Press coverage is how the other Team would love to play because Rodgers absolutely has destroyed zone coverage in the past.
Look at the Panthers game. The Panthers play a ton of Cover 3, they even let Norman go to probably play Cover 3 more. The Panthers didn't play any Cover 3 against the Packers. They totally abandoned their defense to play to the Packers weakness.
That's a terrible situation. Elite Teams realizing that you've gotten so far behind that they will abandon to what they excel at in order to play to your weakness.
Finwiz
September 12, 2016 at 03:49 pm
@Jeremy...part of the reason the Packers don't go down the seam is because their slot receiver isn't big enough to handle the hits, plus he's not a big target, but 1st and foremost because they haven't had a legitimate TE that has the speed to get 15 yards down before 12 gets creamed. Hopefully all that changes once Cook gets integrated into the offense, but I'm surprised we didn't see one shot downfield with him yesterday. Jordy did some of that too, but it will be awhile before he gets back to game speed after the ACL. I just heard on the radio they said former Packer House thinks Jordy's about 80% of his former self. Ouch.
jeremyjjbrown
September 12, 2016 at 04:25 pm
How big was Driver? They could run some slants and quick outs too.
Nelson looked about 80%, he also had a look on his face like "shit, I'm not a little bit faster than these guys anymore" I bet by the playoffs he'll be closer to 95%. He can get by on savy until then.
Maybe this is where Rodgers trust/int concerns are a factor. Janis is big and fast enough to kill on slants but would Rodgers trust him to catch the football? I bet not.
NickPerry
September 12, 2016 at 08:10 pm
I agree Jeremy. I think this whole lack of shots down the middle or anything remotely deep comes down to trust. At some point Rodgers has to start to "Build Trust" with these guys DURING the game. Averaging 5.4 yards a pass won't cut it most weeks. Rodgers hasn't looked like Rodgers since the Denver game in 2015. It really concerns me we're relying SO much on Nelson to be Jordy of 2014. If that doesn't happen it's 5 yard passes it seems.....Just week one, just week one....
FYI... This marks the 13th consecutive week including playoffs Rodgers has failed to post a QB Rating of at least 100. This from a players who's career passer rating is 104.1
Thegreatreynoldo
September 12, 2016 at 09:21 pm
I agree with Jeremy. I don't agree with any part of Finwiz's post. Cobb is big enough to go down the seam: Cobb is a good-sized slot WR - heck, GB even uses him as a RB on occasion. He can take a hit. GB's OL provides very good pass protection, more than enough for even a slow TE like RR to get 15 yards downfield "before 12 gets creamed." RR isn't working against zones where he can find a soft spot, so he simply doesn't get open going 15 yards downfield on the route: he can open on the scramble drill on occasion.
I think AR doesn't like throwing towards the middle due to the fear of INTs. AR never was nearly as good as Favre at throwing the short slant and letting the receiver gain the bulk of the yards after the catch. I remember the play last season where RR caught a pass for about 35 yards. Out of a 2 TE set, both RR and Q ran down the seam in a play designed to stress the safety. The play worked to perfection, and both RR and Q were open about 12 to 15 yards downfield. Problem was no pass was forthcoming. Instead, AR held the ball, ran around and then found RR down the right side around the numbers off of a scramble drill. [I believe Mr. Olson put up video analysis of this play last year.] IDK of MM is calling for plays over the middle, but there is little point to doing so if AR won't pull the trigger. Against Jacksonville, AR did throw a slant to Adams. Nice looking, tight spiral, but no receiver in the picture because Adams didn't get off the line cleanly. We didn't see anymore of those, since AR has to trust the WR to get to the spot on plays like this, so I agree with Nick on the trust issue on these types of throws. This a rare thing anyway unless the slant is to Nelson or Cobb, or James Jones last season. CBs can jam the WRs without fear of watching a receiver run to daylight if the CB gets beat inside and AR completes the slant pass to the WR. It isn't so much whether Janis would catch the quick slant, it is whether Janis would be in the TV picture as we watch the pass thrown to the spot AR expected Janis to be.
So, I expect the ISO plays on the boundary to continue, meaning it is critical for the X and Y WR to beat their man. Cook can get a pass from AR on the deep seem where there is less clutter, maybe 15 yards downfield, no so much anywhere near the LOS. I think House meant that Nelson was running his routes at about 80% of normal play speed, not that Nelson was physically only 80% recovered.
Thegreatreynoldo
September 12, 2016 at 09:27 pm
BTW, Cobb runs a lot of crossing and drag routes. Not too many vertical routes; when he does run a vertical route it can be a big play because it is unexpected. Though Cobb ran a 4.46 at the combine, he rarely looks that fast on the field.
Finwiz
September 13, 2016 at 08:34 am
Greatreynaldo, the results on the field would suggest otherwise....that the Packers do not consider Cobb a viable alternative to run down the middle of the field in the area of a 6'3" 250 lb. linebacker. If he was capable, they WOULD BE DOING IT! Good gawd...the logic around here. You have to be a millennial! LOL
jeremyjjbrown
September 13, 2016 at 09:36 pm
The Packers are not doing lot's of things they could be doing. In fact if we speak of logic it's not even possible for them to do all of the permutations of things they could be doing because the upper bounds on the expansion is astronomical.
If we have just 3 receivers with a 5 route tree then the number of combinations of routes that could be run is already 15 factorial or 1.3076744e+12.
That's what makes football interesting BTW, so many things can happen.
holmesmd
September 12, 2016 at 09:45 am
The entire passing offense was asleep the first quarter. Too many short passes , missed throws, and drops. Play calling was also anemic. It was the first game and they will get better as the season goes on. The offense will be special by December barring major injury. Great win! Go Pack!
Razer
September 12, 2016 at 09:54 am
Maybe the better question would be "did we miss Sitton?" I watched some of the Bears-Texan game and couldn't believe how poorly he played. He looked out of shape and slow. Maybe his release shouldn't have been such a shocker.
As for Jordy, he was on par with the rest of a game rusty offense (that includes MM and his offensive plan). Eddie Lacy in the flats is a step better than Richard Rodgers on a stretch play. The good news - it can only get better.
TarynsEyes
September 12, 2016 at 10:18 am
" Maybe the better question would be "did we miss Sitton?" I watched some of the Bears-Texan game and couldn't believe how poorly he played. He looked out of shape and slow. Maybe his release shouldn't have been such a shocker."
Cutler has the effect on all his linemen.
SpudRapids
September 12, 2016 at 10:22 am
haha that is funny
jeremyjjbrown
September 12, 2016 at 11:46 am
I'm trying to imagine a Cutler pep talk in the locker room. It is not a pretty concept.
Mojo
September 12, 2016 at 11:06 am
Or maybe the better question is - will our number one CB be forced to retire? It's getting close.
croatpackfan
September 12, 2016 at 02:36 pm
Josh Sitton has same disease Lane Taylor had in the preseason. He is playing with not good OT and C, so he is often left on island and fight against his man, while others use that. He does not get any help from his co-players. That is why he is so bad. And that is why Lane Taylor looked bad in the preseason. OL is good only when they are playing like unit. OL is not just sum of 5 players. They must be synchronized and to get that you need time and you need similar and adequate skills of every player in that line!
It is simple...
Thegreatreynoldo
September 13, 2016 at 02:39 am
Sitton allowed no sacks, no QB hits, and 1 pressure in 37 pass attempts. He had a good, solid outing, but will need time to gain cohesiveness with his line mates, especially in run blocking.
As a note, Taylor allowed 3 pressures, but no hits or sacks. Taylor was okay against a good opponent. Did we miss Sitton? Not tremendously. We had 7 NFL ready linemen. We have 5 now, with hopes for Spriggs and Murphy to develop. It's a roll of the dice; if we are injury free at least until Linsley returns, we should be able to weather it.
Thegreatreynoldo
September 13, 2016 at 03:49 am
Ran across this article from Cover 32 - yes, Sitton is one of the players cited for playing well, and it also references a similar report from PFF.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/five-bears-balled-against-texans-184737968....
croatpackfan
September 13, 2016 at 04:42 am
Well, I watched myself that game. Visual showed that he is not part of the line. What is normal, because he had 3 - 4 practices only. As I mentioned earlier, he was OK one on one, but that is not what OL has to do. There was several blitzes coming by him and he did not react, or better to say he was pushed back enough to prevent RB or TE to fill that gap. He was responsible for few QB hurries... I'm sure he will be play this season OK if he stays healthy, but I do not see that he will be at all-pro level... I think he knows that and that is why he insisted on hurry with extension!
tm_inter
September 12, 2016 at 09:56 am
Jordy Nelson was just relearning to catch passes in real situations. He'll get better and better.
fthisJack
September 12, 2016 at 10:21 am
i thought the timing between AR and Jordy was off on several passes. it will get better as the season goes along.
Lacey was bumping runs to the outside early in the game when he should have cut it up hard inside. he still looks like he could shed about 10 more pounds. looks a little slow to me.
i'm glad MM kept a lot of secondary players on the roster as it looks like Shields may miss some time with a concussion. can't wait to see Hawkins get some playing time.
Thegreatreynoldo
September 12, 2016 at 09:36 pm
I'd be happy to wait, but alas, Hawkins, who was inactive with a hammy, might be pressed into service, if he is even healthy enough to play.
Ibleedgreenmore
September 12, 2016 at 10:23 am
It was like a preseason game to Jordy, they all had to get the rust off and play more like game situations. I give it another game and they will be firing on all cylinders.
SpudRapids
September 12, 2016 at 10:26 am
I was not surprised... he looked like Jordy but I think they refrained from running him deep on play action which I don't think is a bad thing.
I'm really surprised everyone is being as negative as they are on the offense. This is a new unit and a new season. You have 2 different lineman, a new TE, new receiver rotation, and a new full back. How could anyone expect them to come out and blow the doors open against a team they never face with a bunch of unscouted looks.
Biggest stat everyone is overlooking... the Pack completed 3 passes over 20 yards down the field. That didn't happen until week 9 last year.
Conclusion: offensive arrow pointing up
sonomaca
September 12, 2016 at 11:14 am
Adams seemed to R-E-L-A-X once it was clear Nelson was back. Chain reaction. BTW: Richard Rodgers looks much slimmer and more agile. Pack have got lots of weapons now, and the pass pro was pretty good considering what happened last week.
jeremyjjbrown
September 12, 2016 at 11:52 am
To bad Richard Rodgers seams to have become an even worse blocker. I didn't think it was possible. He couldn't even hold a guy inside for 1 second to get help from Lane Taylor when Bahk pulled on a running play and Lacy got blown up as a result.
I wouldn't even dress him once Perillo is healthy. That play was totally inexcusable.
SpudRapids
September 12, 2016 at 12:27 pm
Blind negativity... If Perillo was better he'd be playing MM and TT are smarter than you
jeremyjjbrown
September 12, 2016 at 01:36 pm
Perillo is injured. I saw something you didn't so you call me blind? Nice one. If you have an example of R Rodgers blocking well Last Sunday I'd love for you to point it out. Then we can talk about actual facts. Not the relative intelligence of folks you don't even know.
The play I am talking about was actually a very nice design to get Eddy on the edge against the safety. And It was called at a critical juncture where the Packers need to run out the clock. Richard actually had a simple block to preform for about a second until Taylor got there. All he had to do was hold the Edge defender inside while he was already on the outside edge. Jared Abbrederis could probubly have made this block but Richard Rodgers was so slow and weak that he got dumped on his ass and the guy tackled Lacy for a loss before he could turn up field.
You know, a couple weeks ago I saw a poster point out an Ad Hominem attack. If you want to see one,just look right here. Instead of deisputing the fact that Rodgers fails to make an easy block that puts the whole game in jeopardy the poster attacks me with insults that I am blind, negative and stupid.
DrealynWilliams
September 12, 2016 at 11:27 am
Spot on @Spud
Thegreatreynoldo
September 12, 2016 at 09:58 pm
Spot on, Jeremy, both on the wild ad hominem attack and about the play in question. Took grief last year for writing that when RR stays in to block, defenses salivate, and when he runs a route, they put their slowest LB on him, if they don't altogether ignore him. MM is stubborn about these things.
stockholder
September 12, 2016 at 10:32 am
This team needs Jordy Nelson! I thought Nelson made some good catches. Kept A-rod Relaxed. Cobb was the beneficiary. A-rods throwing is still not what made him the MVP of past. He has to get sharper. After Nelson and Cobb this team needs help. Adams is not a #3WR. Forget that. Monty looked slow and A-rod missed him badly. Abbey got swallowed up in traffic. Not one of the back-ups looked promising. I see better WRs on other teams. And know this has to change. - We need better!
SpudRapids
September 12, 2016 at 12:33 pm
Really? you are that settled after the first game? Let the season play out before you rush to conclusions.
If i followed your logic of using one game as the barometer Adams is due to average 50 catches 800 and 16 TD's... that would be a hell of a #3 receiver stat line
Doug_In_Sandpoint
September 12, 2016 at 11:56 am
Jordy is a beast.
The passing game will improve.
Super Bowl is ours.
Finwiz
September 12, 2016 at 11:08 am
Excellent question Zach, on the issue of rust vs. scheme. The reason why I believe the execution is schematic in nature, and not "rust", is because it looked to be the same type of struggles we were used to seeing last year. It just seems to always be a grind for the Packers since the Super Bowl and subsequent 15-1 seasons. I was a bit encouraged by the new found "dink and dunk" philosophy, more of a west coast type of offense, but I was equally discouraged by the lack of separation for receivers when they did try to attack with slants or go-routes. I don't know, something just seems "off" about this offense, perhaps the Packers are just too predictable after 11 years of McCarthy or maybe they are tipping tendencies and calls, and aren't aware of it. I think there's talent on this team at the skill positions, and it makes no sense that we never see the other team blow an assignment, or get a receiver running free.
Since'61
September 12, 2016 at 11:47 am
Fin - the Packers had 9 offensive possessions, not counting the final kneel down. They scored on 5 of the 9 possessions and 2 of their possessions began inside their 5 yard line. Considering this was the first game of the season, on the road, against an unknown opponent it was pretty good overall. It may seem predictable but do you want to open the playbook in the first game against a non-conference opponent when you are leading for most of the game including the entire second half. Yes, there is room for improvement but that will come as the season goes on. Communication will improve and the game plans will become more diverse. Remember the starters only played 5-6 series in the preseason. Once they build some consistency playing together the Packers can open up the playbook. One game at a time. Thanks, Since '61
Finwiz
September 12, 2016 at 02:35 pm
Since '61 (2 years longer than me, I might add...and that's a LONG time)...plausible explanation, but do you really think McCarthy is confident enough in his ability to score points on the road to just "hold back" on opening the playbook simply because it's a non-conference opponent? If this is truly the case, I'd say he's delusional. That game was far closer to a catastrophic loss than people realize, and it NEVER should have been that close. They did dominate for the most part, but the little mistakes and failure to execute when they needed TD's instead of FG's kept this game far closer than it should have been. The pieces of this team are essentially the same as last year except for a guard that HAS played, and a new TE, so there's no excuse for lack of execution. Not to mention the fact they PRACTICED for what....6 weeks prior to this game? These are professionals, but they sure don't look like any Mike Holmgren teams from 95, 96, or 97. There's an attention to detail and discipline that's missing. I expect more out of the Packers, particularly with a QB this good. They are going to squander a major opportunity with this QB if they don't elevate their level of play somehow. I'm beginning to think we aren't going to see it with this coaching staff.
Since'61
September 12, 2016 at 03:21 pm
Fin - I agree that there were little mistakes but they were week 1 mistakes that were not fatal. And yes they have been practicing for 6 weeks but the starters only had 5-6 series in preseason games. There is nothing like real game experience against opposing pros who are also playing to win. The oppressive heat and being on the road are also factors. I would also agree that they don't look as good as the Holmgren teams 95-98 but that's because they are not as good as those Holmgren teams. Those Holmgren teams had better defense and a better OL and better WRs and RBs. Aaron Rodgers is the only player with the current Packers who is better than Holmgren's QB but let's remember that Favre won the MVP 3 years in a row during that stretch so maybe we can say they are even at QB. In any case the Holmgren Packers would beat the current Packers, probably badly. There is a lack of discipline and detail but that is characteristic throughout the current league not just the Packers. This Packer team needs to play more consistently. If they stay healthy that consistency may evolve over the course of the season. For me, I take it one game at a time. Thanks, Since '61
Otto
September 12, 2016 at 04:01 pm
They don't look like the '95-97 Packers because training camp is different. No contact. Starters only play a handful of series in the preseason. This is what Sept looks like for this team over the last few years. They don't seem to hit their grove until October.
Also, coaches absolutely hold back on plays. If a team can't run the basics, the coach won't call the more complicated stuff.
There's also the deception factor. I remember reading an article where one of the Packer's coaches (it was a long time ago, maybe not even this staff) talked about setting up a successful play weeks before in another game.
jeremyjjbrown
September 12, 2016 at 05:17 pm
McCarthy has hunfreds of plays. Even if he didn't "hold back" they can't run 10% of them in a single game.
carusotrap
September 12, 2016 at 11:10 am
You want it to be rust. You don't want it to be scheme. BUT, I think it might be neither. I think it just might be learning curve. We have the 2nd youngest team in the league - or something like that. All those young players have to be taught. I see a game like this and wonder what have they been doing the last four weeks. The answer is converting all that talent and potential into real players. Then you add to that the reality of a scheme that is so complex it requires players to pretty much read each other's minds. I'm not surprised it looked like that. OTOH, it looked like that almost all of last season.
If all that is crap, then I'm going with scheme. Our play book may be a work of art on paper, but Randall Cobb up the middle for two yards is just dumb. Run up the middle for 4, toss right for loss of 2, 40 yard bomb incomplete, punt is a series I wish we'd stop thinking will work.
Michael Grunewald
September 12, 2016 at 02:31 pm
That's one thing I can't stand. Cobb in the backfield is your fourth best option there. It's also no mystery that when Cobb is in the backfield, COBB is going to get the ball in one fashion or another. The use of that package had to be far more limited.
Oppy
September 12, 2016 at 06:52 pm
Cobb is only the 4th best option in the backfield if you ignore the defensive personnel on the field.
Part of the charm of motioning WR's into the backfield is it tips the defense's hand to the QB. The other concept- the over riding one- is when the offense puts empty backfield personnel on the field (No true RB), you're expecting the defense to pull out a LB or two and replace them with smaller DB's to defend the pass. When that happens, you motion a WR into the backfield and now have the ability to run the ball against a small defense. This can become a huge advantage for the offense to run against. There is little likelyhood you'll ever see a defense go small when Lacy, Starks, or (insert third RB here) is on the field.
Since'61
September 12, 2016 at 11:49 am
I expected Jordy to play well and he obviously makes a difference for the offense. I thought the offense executed well except for the 2 drives which started inside their own 5 yard line. After that they had 2 TD drives in the second quarter and in the second half 2 long, time consuming drives which resulted in FGs. The play calling could be considered bland but 27 points in the first game on the road resulting in a win is pretty good to me, unless you are worried about fantasy points. Also, why would you show more of your playbook than necessary to a non-conference opponent. Finally, you need to consider that the OL needs to develop some consistency before you begin to call more sophisticated plays. I expect the Packers offense to look fairly vanilla until after the bye week. Can't worry about games that haven't been played yet. We can't win the SB in week one. One game at a time. Thanks, Since '61
Denise Chanterelle
September 12, 2016 at 11:45 am
IMO, the Pack looked fine yesterday. Knocking off the rust for sure. Taller order next Sunday in the Vikings new stadium, inaugural game, with a national audience looking on. Go Pack! Aloha.
rajahking
September 12, 2016 at 12:04 pm
The offense was sloppy and Nelson wasn't out running anyone, and that's frustrating, but at least Rodgers went downfield effectively a couple of times, using space that Jordy helped create for others. Last year the entire offense was short passes, missed long bombs (except for end of game hail marys), and hard counts to gain 5 yards... I have to think having Nelson being back mattered somewhat to Rodgers. A satisfiying start, I think.
croatpackfan
September 12, 2016 at 12:36 pm
I think until Jordy started to make plays they did not pay much attention on him. After first 2 catches, Packers offense started. That tells me Jaguars started to fear of Jordy's comeback. That opened field for others and offense started to be dangerous!
cuervo
September 12, 2016 at 01:06 pm
The Packers were last in the league last year in yards per pass......they averaged 5.7 yards per pass yesterday, almost the same as all of last year. 5 total passes over 10 yards. Maybe it's rust.........but given the same issues as last year (no separation, no passes in the middle,etc.) I'm leaning toward scheme being the culprit until proven otherwise.
When I watch other games it is amazing that other teams have receivers running wide open much of the time, and the packers receivers are almost always blanketed, requiring a perfect pass or scrambling play form Rodgers to complete. It just never looks easy anymore. I hope I'm proven wrong.
Finwiz
September 12, 2016 at 02:28 pm
Here's a guy that "get's it". Couldn't agree me Cuervo. People need to remove the green and told colored glasses for once and start holding these coaches to a higher standard. Every week it's "we've got to clean that up" and "we need to get our pad level lower"....always the same TIRED excuses. These are the GBP, not Detroit.
Lphill
September 12, 2016 at 01:22 pm
Road win tough weather conditions , no injuries , not bad , everyone needs to relax this was the Super Bowl for the Jags, did anyone watch other highlights ? The other contenders like the Seahawks and Cards struggled pretty bad , it's one game guys , relax .
EdsLaces
September 12, 2016 at 01:57 pm
Like I said before the game this game was never a gimme. We were definitely rusty but it was impressive to watch us lose the lead ...get it back...and let our d bend but not break. Glad Jordy wasn't overworked he should improve every game. Go pack go!
NMPF
September 12, 2016 at 04:39 pm
With the CBA allowing about as much practice as a Lombardi short week of 2 a days, the look of being out of sync is understandable. Sundays complete starting O did not play 1 series in the pre-season as a unit. The D probably only had a few. By week 3 or 4 both units should be in what used to be game 1 sync. Go Pack!!!