Packers Periscope: Week 1 at Chicago Bears

The Past

When you think of tNFL history, your first thought should be Packers-Bears, the league's longest and most storied rivalry.  While the tone of the rivalry has definitely shifted from dirty to begrudgingly acceptable, make no mistake the Packers are still trying to “kick Chicago’s ass”.  And McCarthy should be confident, outside of one game where Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone, the Packers have won every game in recent memory, most importantly including the NFC Championship game in 2010 that propelled the Packers to their Super Bowl win. 

Coming back to the more recent past, the Packers won handedly in 2014, winning 38-17 in week 4 and then demolishing the Bears 55-14 in week 10 (after unveiling their newest inside linebacker Clay Matthews).   The Bears ended up with an anemic 5-11 record, winning only two more games against bottom dwellers Tampa Bay and Minnesota and looked like a defeated team just waiting for it to end by seasons end.    

The Present

Overall Team Efficiency

Packers

Bears

23.3%

-13.8%

Offense

Overall

24.7%

-0.1%

Run

5.3%

-1.2%

Pass

46.5%

11.6%

Defense

Overall

-1.0%

10.6%

Run

-3.4%

-5.0%

Pass

1.2%

22.6%

Special Teams

-2.3%

-3.1%

Quarterback (DYAR)

1564

398

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR)  

Naturally as this is the first week of the season, I’ve used the 2014 season statistics for the Packers and Bears but going forward I will be using 2015 weekly data. 

Overall, what can you say but “the Bears still suck”?  The only thing that the Bears were better than the Packers in 2014 was defending against the run (though their horrid pass defense makes up for it overall).  The biggest difference is probably Aaron Rodgers versus Jay Cutler’s DYAR, which isn’t anything new. 

I think the biggest matchup will likely be how well Jay Cutler fares against the revamped Packers defensive secondary, who will likely see the professional debuts of Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins and maybe Ladarius Gunter while Cutler will be without Brandon Marshall (traded to the Jets), Kevin White (IR/PUP) while Alshon Jefferies (calf) is a coin flip and current backups Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson are also dealing with their own injuries.  

The Future

With the Bears in full rebuilding mode after the dismissal of head coach Marc Trestman and general manager Phil Emery, their future is definitely uncertain under new head coach John Fox.  Under Trestman, reigning in Cutler’s inconsistencies and masking it with big and tall receivers was generally successful in 2013 but unraveled as Cutler usually does in 2014.  Obviously Fox will likely favor a more balanced approach but again the biggest question is will Fox be able to control Cutler?  From a physical standpoint, Cutler is as talented if not more than Aaron Rodgers but just doesn’t have either the rapport of his teammates or the mental capacity to play the game efficiently. 

On defense, Mel Tucker has been replaced by Vic Fangio (who escaped the mess that is the 49ers), but keeps the 3-4 defense that frankly didn’t fit the Bears defense all too well. Jared Allen still looks miscast as an outside linebacker and more importantly, the defense seems to have lost its identity, which was a focal point during the Lovie Smith regime.     

As mentioned before, the Bears 2015 draft class has already gone off to a disastrous start with 1st round pick Kevin White missing all of the preseason before landing on IR/PUP meaning he will miss at minimum 6 weeks but likely more since he hasn’t practice at all.  2nd round pick Eddie Goldman and 3rd round pick Hroniss Grasu have also been disappointments during the preseason but figure to play significant roles during the season. 

Perhaps most importantly is the Bears multi-million dollar question of the future: “what do we do about Jay Cutler?”  Slated to make $15.5 million and $16 million in the next two years, cutting Cutler this season would result in $29.5 million in dead money while only saving $13 million; next year the dead money drops to $13 million with $4 million saved.  Obviously that’s a lot of money for an average quarterback on the best of days but it’s unlikely the Bears can do anything about it since they have no other options.

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Comments (49)

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Idiot Fan's picture

September 11, 2015 at 12:24 pm

I'm a little more nervous about this game than a lot of people, though that's partly my nature. I think Fox is a solid coach, and I think Cutler will be on his best behavior at this point. It wouldn't shock me to see him not throw any INTs. The first game last year was close until two Cutler picks in the second half. I'm hoping for a blowout, but I don't know that it will be.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:27 pm

My personal opinion is that Peyton Manning is the head coach any team he's on so I don't know if you can really chalk up much of Denver's success to Fox (considering they fired him even after a winning season seems to indicate that the Broncos didn't think all to highly of him either). Going back Fox was .500 as the head coach of the Panthers, which I think is a lot more realistic expectation for the Bears now.

As for Cutler, I'm guessing it's easier to not throw interceptions in the preseason because he has such a fantastic arm and defenders aren't trying to confuse him since teams want to see their players 1 on 1. Cutler's biggest issue isn't not physically throwing interceptions but not mentally throwing them. In regular season games Cutler has thrown 67 interceptions in 76 games, meaning there's a really good chance he coughs one up this week as well.

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Idiot Fan's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:29 pm

You're messing up my reverse-jinx :).

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Evan's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:36 pm

"I think Cutler will be on his best behavior at this point."

The famous last words of, what, a dozen different head coaches, offensive coordinators and GMs?

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:55 pm

Actually let's see if that has any truth:

First start under OC Ron Turner: 4 INT
First start under OC Mike Martz: 1 INT
First start under OC Mike Tice: 1 INT
First start under OC Aaron Kormer/HC Marc Trestman: 1 INT

Cutler hasn't not thrown an interception during opening day for his entire career with the Bears and started out with a bang with 4 INTs to the Packers in his first ever start with the Bears. In 119 regular season games as a Bears he's only had 28 interception free games, meaning 76% of the time he will throw an interception. Compared to his 100% interception percentage in opening games means he'll likely be on worse behavior at this point.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:40 pm

Well then, based on the theory of "slot machine is due to hit", since Jay Cutler hasn't thrown an interception all preseason he is due to throw on this week.

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porupack's picture

September 11, 2015 at 11:25 pm

IdiotFan, its ok to have a healthy dose of nervous confidence that is typical of a Champion team, and which keeps them dominant over the minions. We all fear overconfidence for good reason when the odds on paper are so tilted against the Bears. We'll have a good time on this site next week, still having a few gripes to debate as our rite. cheers

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alex's picture

September 11, 2015 at 12:25 pm

But the Bears still suck...

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:27 pm

I can't see the Bears not sucking until Cutler isn't their starting quarterback. They might have a couple good games here and there, but Cutler just isn't going to lead the Bears anywhere.

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Since'61's picture

September 11, 2015 at 12:31 pm

As myself and several others here previously mentioned in earlier articles this week, the Packers only lose this game if they beat themselves. The most likely way for this to happen will be the continuation of poor Special Teams play. If we block effectively for our place kicks and punts and prevent any long KO or punt returns we should be fine. Hopefully we will have a game where we don't have to punt and all of our KOs go out of the back of the end zone. With John Fox the Bears will be well prepared but the level of talent just does not match the Packers. Go Pack! Thanks, Since '61

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:33 pm

Keep in mind this isn't the Dave Toub special teams unit with Devin Hester anymore. In fact, the Bears special teams actually ranked even worse than the Packers according to Football Outsiders. I know lots of people like Gosselin's rankings at the Dallas Morning News, but even he had them ranked 26th. Either way, the Packers special teams unit is atrocious but the Bears aren't too far behind. Add that to the fact that special teams is decidedly not 1/3 of football (more like 15-20%) and on the whole I wouldn't worry too much about it. Of course on the whole and Brandon Bostick are two separate things.

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Bohj's picture

September 11, 2015 at 02:28 pm

I do think our special teams will be improved dramatically. Every time Big Mike has stated he will fix something......... He has.
Offensive line.
Running game.
Run defense - after moving clay
And now special teams.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:05 pm

I did the math a little while ago: STs played 17.3% of total snaps IIRC.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:47 pm

Football outsiders lists special teams as 15% of a team while advanced football analytics lists special teams account for 20% of wins or losses. I'd say your number is right in the middle and further supports special teams not being worth 33% of a team.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2007/08/importance-of-speci...

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barutanseijin's picture

September 12, 2015 at 06:50 pm

Pad level. What about pad level? Did he ever fix that?

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coreyb's picture

September 11, 2015 at 12:42 pm

Nice article

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FITZCORE1252's picture

September 11, 2015 at 12:51 pm

This game is a blowout.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:34 pm

I hope it is but I'm more expecting a comfortable lead before the Packers go into turtle mode as usual.

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Gianich's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:17 pm

34-20 PAck. BEnnet and Forte kill our LBs in coverage but GB talent just too much to overcome.

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John Galt III's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:23 pm

Chicago and Illinois are so financially in the hole that the Bears should move before the state declares bankruptcy.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 01:35 pm

Actually the Bears should bail out Chicago, they're certainly making enough money. They could make way more money if they were actually good at playing football and marketing football but that's a different discussion.

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Bohj's picture

September 11, 2015 at 02:05 pm

I don't like the feeling of rivalry games in general. They don't always go the way of the roster comparisons and paper champions. It's at soldier. Fox is serious. His record stands on its own. The Jay Cutler Show on Monday nights has been cancelled. Why? Maybe Fox has convinced Jay to be serious about his career and the team. Maybe Jay has that chip finally. His interviews have shown a new excitement that none of us have seen. Maybe this isn't "same ol Jay". Maybe Jay wants that monkey off of his back. Makes me nervous. Fangio.....4-0 against pack. Yes...I get it.....less talent than niners. But this sets up like that game against the lions where we thought we would just throw all over them because of their weak secondary.......but we didn't count on their weak secondary coming to play. Jams at the line...contested footballs in the air. Drops. Lions beat us. We were off.
That "kick their ass comment" though taken out of context - Can't stop thinking about Lomus Brown. This is the Bears. This is a rival. This is a game that could single handedly launch a Fox regime. They want/need this more than we do. We have beat them for five years. The dam may break. May not be Sunday.....but eventually they will get their win. Why not at home? We should be careful to be nervous. Division games are never a walk in the park. Unless you are creamsical tampa.

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Evan's picture

September 11, 2015 at 02:27 pm

"Division games are never a walk in the park. Unless you are creamsical tampa."

My memory might be foggy, but I feel like Holmgren Packers always seemed to lose in Tampa.

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Bohj's picture

September 11, 2015 at 02:38 pm

Tampa changed from creamsicle in 1997.
Www.Mcubed.net/NFL.TB/GB.shtml
Scroll to the very bottom chart. If you notice the record from 1990-1998. Tampa only won like three games out of 17 against the pack.

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Bohj's picture

September 11, 2015 at 02:39 pm

You are correct that we struggled with Tampa.....but that was Pewter Pirate Era.

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Evan's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:54 pm

Ah...gotcha.

Alstott, man. What an animal.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 02:51 pm

"Fox is serious. His record stands on its own." Not counting his time at Denver, which is more a product of Peyton Manning being the head coach (who then fired Fox since Peyton obviously has more leverage with Elway than Fox), he's a .500 head coach. Not bad but certainly not a coach to be feared.

As to the Lions, while their secondary is weak, it's cause the Lions have spent all their resources on their defensive line (and then screwed it all up by reworking Suh's contract every year). The Bears on the other hand have a weak secondary and have the 30th best defensive line against the run and 22nd best defensive line against the pass. The Lions minimized their flaws by covering it with a great defensive line, the Bears don't have the talent to follow suit.

"This is the Bears. This is a rival. This is a game that could single handedly launch a Fox regime. They want/need this more than we do" McCarthy and the Packers are .759 against the NFC north so just because they are rivals doesn't mean it's always a fair fight. Does this mean on the flip side if they lose then the Fox regime is done?

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Bohj's picture

September 11, 2015 at 03:40 pm

Ha-ha......it could mean they are done. When is the last time you talked to a Bear's fan? If they lose to the Packers by a great margin, the season may as well be over for them. Cutler will get his usual onslaught of scrutiny. The offensive line will continue to fail to protect his whiney attitude and the whole thing could implode quickly. Then bear's fans will say.........maybe it was all Manning and Denver was right to let Fox go.

I would like all of these scenarios. Schaden freude is a funny thing.

As far as Fox and his overall record...you are right...not much to fear. But this guy took Jake Delhomme to a Superbowl. Players can buy in to anything.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:52 pm

I think Bears and Packers fans pretty much go through this logic:

1) how realistic is it that my team wins the Super Bowl (or at least gets into the playoffs)

2) how realistic is it that my team beats our rivals?

For Packers fans it's quite realistic at this point to expect a Super Bowl win so that's more important than beating the Bears while for Bears fans beating the Packers is more important since there's little chance of winning a Super Bowl.

Also I don't think you'd have many people picking Fox over Manning in any context. I'm not sure there would be many people picking Eli Manning over Fox for that matter.

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vj_ostrowski's picture

September 11, 2015 at 03:09 pm

"Maybe this isn't the same old Jay" has been trumpeted by Broncos/Bears fans and the media EVERY year for nearly a fricking DECADE at this point. I'm sick of hearing it. It's not coming true. ZERO percent chance that Cutler ever "gets it."

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Bohj's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:00 pm

I totally gave you a point. (Not on purpose) although your comment is totally valid. Cutler is an anomaly. I can't help but feel a little bad for him. Great arm. Poor leader. But on a whole other level, I root for him to do well enough so that the bears keep signing him. It's like all of those years I rooted for the Lions to keep resigning HC Wayne Fontes. There is a point though where a man has to realize this must be the end of the line for a career unless performance happens now....right?

This cycle can't save Jay any longer. New coaches keep thinking its gonna happen with this guy.....and then.....coach killa does it again.

This really is the last chance for Jay. The pattern is over. There is a new owner in town. I thought Jay's benching last year was the end. But low and behold.......... Bear's starter.

Is there at least a 1% chance he "gets it" out of desperation?

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 05:02 pm

That sounds like me rooting for Matt Millen cause even back then I knew he was 100% responsible for that train wreck.

Cutler was going to be the starter no matter what this year and will be the starter next year even if they go 0-16 because they can't afford for him not to. 2015 and 2016 are his last two big years of guaranteed money and there's likely no way to get rid of him (naturally no one wants to trade for him). They could draft, and probably should draft, a quarterback high next year but even then I think Cutler is the starting QB in 2016.

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Dan Stodola's picture

September 11, 2015 at 06:04 pm

I doubt Cutler is the bears QB next year. You said yourself in the article the cap hit this year won't allow them to release Cutler this year, but next if they release him they actually save money. That tells me he will play this year and if he is the same ol' Jay, the bears will gladly dump him and move on. They can find a stop gap starter w/ the 4M saved on next years cap and be done w/ him. The new regime in Chicago will say they were saddled w/ him this year (and they are) but its just time to part way (and it will be).

They will certainly be on the lookout for a new QB next year, probably should have been this year too. Either way I think the bears will have a new QB next year.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 06:20 pm

While it's true that cutting Cutler in 2016 will save the Bears $4 million, they will still incur a $13 million dead money hit by releasing him. That number drops to $2 million in 2017, making 2016 his last year in Chicago.

I know this doesn't happen in the NFL, but I wonder if the Packers could trade for Cutler and a 2nd round pick or something and then cut him. Cutler's contract were be split between two teams and in essence the Packers would be paying the Bears for a draft pick. This happens to some extent in the NHL from what I understand.

The fact that the Bears, with a new HC and GM didn't draft their guy this year means they are likely going to go with Cutler next year as well.

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Dan Stodola's picture

September 11, 2015 at 06:49 pm

"a new HC and GM didn't draft their guy this year."

Sure they incur the cap hit, but in the end it saves money to release him next year. The new HC and GM, as I mentioned, and you agree were saddled w/ him this year. But it makes no sense to continue throwing good money after bad next year, when they can actually save money next year. The new GM and HC have no ties to Cutler and if doesn't preform like a legit NFL QB, why would they hold onto him for yet another year? It would be in their best interests to cut ties asap, especially w/ the 4M saved

This actually does happen in the NFL. Give the QB one last chance in the 1st year in a new regime and then release him if he doesn't play as well as they want him to.

It just makes more sense to release him next year and move on as soon as possible. I'd assume they didn't find a QB in this years draft all that appealing outside of Winston and Marriota (whom they didn't have a chance to draft) or weren't looking this year since they are already saddled w/ Cutler. They were also looking to rebuild and change to a completely different Defense, so either is possible.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 09:09 pm

I think the bigger problem is that if you release cutler what do you do then? Other than losing all that dead cap space, you now have to find another quarterback. Star qbs rarely ever get to free agency so you are looking at a 2nd tier guy who Cutler might be better than. You could draft a rookie and start right away but that's usually a losing proposition as well. That's why I said they really should have drafted a qb high this year.

Sure neither the HC or GM is tied to cutler but they didn't do much to show that they are going to go in another direction.

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Dan Stodola's picture

September 11, 2015 at 10:50 pm

I mentioned that in my previous comment. With the 4M saved you can find a stop gap starting QB. Its a bitter pill to swallow for bears and their fans but its pointless to continue to throw away good money on a lost cause. They aren't getting good QB play as it is now and that presumably won't change as long as Cutler is on the team. Find a Drew Stanton or Brian Hoyer for a year or 2 if you can't find the QB right away. Put the draft resources into getting the entire team better a la AZ Cards, who finally found Carson Palmer (not that he is a "franchise" QB)".

If Cutler doesn't turn it around the new regime will be better off moving on. They shouldn't force the issue of finding a franchise QB. They've been doing that since McMahon it seems, and that clearly hasn't worked.

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porupack's picture

September 11, 2015 at 11:03 pm

Agree with DanStoda on this one. They would be better off cutting ties with Jay if he continues his same pattern in 2015, regardless of the dead money (they'll lose more than $13 million in lost ticket sales with cutler on the roster:).
It just makes sense for the Fox regime to give it one year, but after that....then it becomes Fox's problem. The problem with Jay is inconsistency. Bears would be better off building a new team around a care-taker, second tier quarterback than a sometimes hot, sometimes wild Cutler. you just can't build an offense around the most pivotal position when it is erratic.

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marpag1's picture

September 12, 2015 at 02:09 am

The argument that "we can't cut a guy because it would cause 'dead' money in our cap" just never made any sense to me. If the player sucks, the money is wasted to your cap one way or the other.

Jay Cutler's entire contract has been "dead money" ever since he entered the league.

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hobbes's picture

September 12, 2015 at 11:05 am

The problem is that cutler can be good, it's only he's not consistently good. No one is saying he can't throw 158.3 and 3TDs one game. He's just more likely to throw 5 interceptions. At $4 million you are looking at guys like Ryan mallet, to be honest I'm not sure who I would pick and that's the problem.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:53 pm

Players definitely change, but usually when they are young and not set in their ways. Cutler is a year older than Rodgers and has been through so many different systems and coaches that you'd think that any improvement that could have been made has been made. Cutler is who is he at this point, and that's what infuriates Bears fans.

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EdsLaces's picture

September 11, 2015 at 02:50 pm

I am most concerned about 2 things. Who will stop Forte? They might run allover us again this game. Also I'm worried about no Burnett in the lineup. He is very helpful in the run game. If they put Hyde back there who goes to the slot? I hope Casey goes slot and Randall is outside.

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croatpackfan's picture

September 11, 2015 at 03:21 pm

Answer to the first question is: Mike Pennel! Answer to the second question is: HHCD is replacing Morgan and Mycah replace HHCD... Slot can play Rollins, but also Gunter, who can support against Bennett too... But that was 3rd question. You owe me one question/answer...

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:16 pm

Demovsky suggested that Micah Hyde would replace Burnett at SS, meaning the rookies, Rollins or Randall, would play slot CB. I note that neither Croat or Demovsky suggested Richardson, who is listed as the primary back up at SS, should step in.

The only other viable option would be Hyde at SS, Hayward at slot, with a rookie at outside CB. Lots of moving parts in that scenario.

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EdsLaces's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:26 pm

I think the Hayward slot rookie outside Hyde safety is the best idea.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:57 pm

I don't have a good feel as to who the backup outside CB is; Randall makes probably the most sense but I get the feeling at some point Hayward will get demoted.

While Randall hasn't been cross trained at safety, he did play the position in college so they could try that as well (probably not a few days from the game though)

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Dan Stodola's picture

September 11, 2015 at 06:26 pm

Since drafting Randall as a CB, he has only played at CB for the Packers. Even while (allegedly) playing Safety at ASU, he was lined up and played like a CB far more often than he did like a Safety. By his own omission Randall said he played man coverage 95% of the time at ASU (probably an exaggeration). I don't think the Packers would even consider moving him now and having to teach him a new position (Safety) and then actually start over w/ him, unless he fails badly at CB.

Hyde is the best alternative for either of the starting Safeties. Richardson may be listed as the backup to Burnett, but he's never shown the ability to play the position in the NFL. They used him in some packages at Safety, but only on obvious run downs and he basically was a 3rd Safety in those packages (replacing a CB).

If Hyde is the Safety opposite Clinton-Dix w/ Burnett out, the Packers would go Shields and Randall at outside CB in nickel IMO. Move Hayward inside to slot and w/ Rollins as the Dime CB. Or they might use Rollins as the nickel CB and Randall as the Dime and not move Hayward inside unless its Dime.

Since the Packers drafted Randall, I've been predicting that he would challenge Hayward for the starting CB job, so I agree w/ you that Hayward might get "demoted" (your word, not mine) at some point this season. It all up to Hayward to make sure the Packers don't do that. If he plays like he's capable of, there's also the possibility he stays as the starter. Like I said, it all up to Hayward to prove he can play outside.

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hobbes's picture

September 11, 2015 at 04:55 pm

The realistic answer is Aaron Rodgers stops Matt Forte. Rodgers can keep scoring at a pace that basically forces the Bears to abandon the run at which point they will have to rely on Cutler, which usually ends poorly. You saw this happen in the blowout against the Bears and Panthers last year.

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porupack's picture

September 11, 2015 at 11:15 pm

I think GBP actually manages Forte if they
1) key on Forte as receiver,
2) set the edge so he doesn't bounce outside or reverse direction (oh, please start the year with discipline, b/c afterall, you've just come out of 8 weeks of intense coaching, right?).
Then Forte at best rattles off 3.5 yards per carry with some good runs b/w the tackles, but of course Capers have GB D-backs ready for Cutlers' risky throws downfield...and thus GreenBay wins by 12 or 19 or 26. (Chigo goes for 2 pt conversions each time and make em with Forte).

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