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Packers Mock Draft Round Up and Reaction, First Edition

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Packers Mock Draft Round Up and Reaction, First Edition

The transition into the NFL offseason is now in full swing, which means free agency and the draft are soon about to take full control of the league's news cycle.

Of course, that also means it's now mock draft season.

In the days since the Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII, a full breadth of draft analysts have unleashed their first or most recent mock drafts.

Just keep in mind, it's still really early. At this time last season, many were still mocking Barrett Jones to the Packers in the first round. With that said, here's who most of the big guns in the draft world are mocking to the Packers at No. 21 overall:

 

Todd McShay, ESPN (2/6, Insider required): CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

If the Packers re-sign Sam Shields and decide to keep Tramon Williams, I'm not sure Gilbert will be a very likely option. Where does he play? Shields, Williams, Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde make up a solid four. And that's not even including Davon House. If Shields bolts or Williams is cut, then Gilbert makes more sense.

Mel Kiper, ESPN (2/6, Insider required): S Calvin Pryor, Louisville

If you haven't already, familiarize yourself with Pryor. He's nearly universally slotted as the first or second best safety in this class, and the Packers' need at the position is well documented. Pryor runs well, matches up in single coverage and can bring the boom. The Packers could use more of all three on defense.

Doug Farrar, Sports Illustrated (2/6): CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

It's somewhat easy to understand the attraction to Gilbert. He has the size, ball skills and return ability to make an immediate impact. And let's not forget, the Packers defense ranked 24th in passing yards, 27th in passing touchdowns and 26th in interceptions last season. There's plenty of room for improvement here. If Thompson sees the value, it's easy to see him pulling the trigger.

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report (2/2): ILB C.J. Mosley, Alabama

Not many mocks have Mosley dropping to the 21st pick. But if the board happens to fall that way, the Packers would have a homerun pick on their hands. Athletic, instinctive and disruptive, Mosley is everything the Packers are missing at inside linebacker. He's an immediate starter, one that a defense can build around. But again, those type of players don't typically fall to No. 21.

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com (1/14): S HaHa Clinton-Dix, Alabama

Most still have Clinton-Dix as the best safety in the class. The problem with that projection is that a consensus talent at an increasingly important position probably doesn't have a chance to make it all the way to No. 21. That said, Clinton-Dix hasn't won everyone over. Colleague Brian Carriveau believes Calvin Pryor is the better safety, and by a healthy margin.

Drafttek (2/6): WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M

The one outside-the-box pick here comes from Drafttek and Jersey Al. But before you trash the idea of picking a receiver in the first round, consider both the value and Ted Thompson's history of picking long-term value over immediate need. It's not crazy. And can you imagine the offense adding a weapon like the 6'5" Evans? He could help replace the production that may be lost through James Jones and Jermichael Finley.

Rob Rang, CBS Sports: DL Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota

The former Gopher is an explosive athlete at 6'6" and 311 pounds. His physical profile certainly sounds like a fit at defensive end, where the Packers do not currently have a penciled-in starter for 2014. There's potential for serious turnover up front on defense. And Thompson has a history of a picking one position in the first round over back-to-back years. In both 2010 and 2011, he selected an offensive tackle with his first pick. There's big-time boom or bust potential with Hageman.

Dane Brugler, CBS Sports: DL Louis Nix III, Notre Dame

If the Packers lose any combination of B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett and Johnny Jolly to free agency this offseason, there will be an urgent need for size along the defensive line. Nix offers it in spades. His ability to play on the nose or at the five technique will be attractive for 3-4 teams.

Nate Davis, USA Today: TE Eric Ebron, UNC

Losing Jermichael Finley—either to Dr. McKenzie's call or free agency—feels like a near-certainty. If that ends up being the case, the Packers could replace him with Ebron, who offers the same type of package at tight end. He's a rare athlete with size and speed, but a non-factor in the run game.  But is the first round too rich for a tight end when other needs are more pressing? We'll see. Buckle up for three months of draft mayhem.

Zach Kruse is a 25-year-old sports writer who contributes to Cheesehead TV, Bleacher Report and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He also covered prep sports for the Dunn Co. News. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at zachkruse2@gmail.com.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (61) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

MarkinMadison's picture

Most of TT's 1st round picks have been OL or DL. "The good Lord only made so many of them." Rodgers, Hawk and CM3* (really, the Packers' second choice of the year) are the exceptions to the rule. Unless a true star like Moesly falls, if Hageman or Nix are available, and rated well by the Packers, I don't think there is really much doubt in my mind what he will do. The turnover on the DL will also have to be a huge factor in his thinking, all other things being equal.

RC Packer Fan's picture

If you look at Thompson's drafts. This is his first pick he has had every year.

2005-QB (Rodgers), 06-LB (Hawk), 07-DT (Harrell, 08-WR (Nelson who he traded from the first round down), 09-DT/LB (Raji/Mathews), 10-OT (Bulaga), 11-OT (Sherrod), 12-LB (Perry), 13-DE (Jones)

In the 9 drafts that Thompson has ran, he has used 5 first picks solely on the OL or DL. He drafted 2 first picks on LB. He drafted Rodgers and Nelson with his first 2 picks in the other 2 years he drafted.

So 7 out of the 9 players that he used his 1st pick on were OL or Front 7 on defense.

I expect that trend to continue. I think he picks DL or LB with his first pick this year.

MarkinMadison's picture

I think your analysis is more complete. I still think the uncertainty on the DL will tip the scales to a DL prospect, assuming all other things are equal. We'll know more about a week after FA starts.

RC Packer Fan's picture

Out of the mocks listed the one that stands out to me is Mike Evans. I stated just above that Thompson's 7 of 9 first picks were on OL or front 7 of defense.

But if he was to go outside his norm, Evans would bring an intriguing presence to the offense. He would help in the redzone with his size. He would also compliment Nelson and Cobb as WR's. Also it appears that Seattle will be one of the teams you have to beat in the playoffs and doing so will require going against big Physical DB's.

I'm not saying they will draft Evans, but that is definitely and intriguing pick.

Jamie's picture

There's pretty much 0% chance TT drafts a WR in the 1st round and for good reason. This draft class is absolutely full of good talent at that position so there's more value there in the later rounds.

Regardless, if there's one position TT knows how to draft it's WR. Even the most vociferous TT hater couldn't even disprove that. Cobb, Jones, Jennings, Nelson, all in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Stroh's picture

I'm pretty high on Donte Moncrief in the late 3rd or 4th round. He seems like a Perfect developmental WR for a year and possible #1 WR in a couple years.

If they go WR a little earlier, I like Robinson or Matthews in the 2nd. But I agree, I wouldn't use a 1st on a WR.

Phatgzus's picture

We should draft if for no other reason than his name-Moncrief.

Stroh's picture

Were you a fan of Sydney Moncreif too? Used to be a huge fan of him, going all the way back to his Arkansas days.

Phatgzus's picture

I'd add Boykin to that list. It's not just receivers in the 2nd round either, TT has an almost perfect record, the only exceptions being Brohm and potentially Worthy.

RC Packer Fan's picture

I didn't say he would draft a WR in the 1st. I just said that its an intriguing pick.

I thought that what Drafttek was spot on.

I do agree though that this is a very deep WR draft class and teams will find starting caliber talent in the 3rd-4th round area this year.

I don't see the Packers drafting a WR in the first round, but if WR was the BPA and they don't resign Jones, I can definitely see them considering WR with their first pick.

Especially when you factor in that both Nelson and Cobb are Free Agents after this year, I can see them going that route if there is one available they like.

mark in montana's picture

Chances that either Dix or Pryor, if drafted by Packers, becomes a great safety by Year 3: Good

Chances that they struggle in Year 1: Very Good

Chances that when they struggle, they will be labeled "busts" by the Trollosphere by Game 2 of their rookie year: Guaranteed

cLowNEY42's picture

Chances that waiting for a rookie DL'man, D.Jones, Worthy, Perry, a new safety, and a new ILB or 2 will result in 3-4 wasted prime AR12 years: Outstanding.

murphy's picture

Chances that cow predicts a losing season and no playoffs no matter who the Packers draft or pickup in free agency: Guaranteed.

billy's picture

is it too much to ask that a first round pick has at least some sort of positive impact on the game??? I would think not…and to label Perry as a bust is not that far off…make or break next season for that man…

Arlo's picture

All 1st rounders drafted by TT should have all 4 years of his rookie contract to show what a truly lousy pick looks like.

If not, the 'homers' would run out of excuses before they could invent new excuses.

Phatgzus's picture

Perry had three sack-strips this year, I'd say that's a positive impact.

HUMP's picture

chances any safety they pick,will be better than md jennings IMMEDIATELY.....100,000% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Clay's picture

Here is my 2 cents looking forward to the draft, and hopefully it is not wasted breath...

All mock drafts are fun and we get excited studying them and playing GM etc, but they all project based on team need, reasonably so.

BUT I am all about BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE.

To give an extreme hypothetical, I know we need defense way more than offense, but if the next coming of Calvin Johnson were available, I would take that player over any player who is a project, or not a consensus pick.

This would particularly apply in the first round. I don't want the next coming of Ahmad Carroll!

Bert's picture

Clay. You got my vote. These mocks are all based om team need and pretty much ignore BPA. We need to get a high quality player in the 1st round. Our roster isn't so loaded that we can't pass on a top talent value guy at #21 regardless of position. The aim of this draft should be to just get better players and upgrade the roster.

Clay's picture

Word up Bert. BPA is Ted's stated philosophy by the way, even though we know he may not always practice it.

jeremy's picture

It is, it's just that he doesn't rank players 1,2,3,4,... they all have grades. If two players have equal grades they will select based on need and whichever positions are not so strong in later rounds.

guenaj's picture

Good points... But wouldn't it be great if CJ Mosely ended up being the BPA!

Clay's picture

Another thought guys....we always get hopes up for the big free agent signing (or any for that matter), but another possibility of course is Ted going bold and moving up in the draft, such as he did to get Clay Matthews. I like that type of move because high draft picks' salaries are wayyy less than big name free agents, with the same potential upside, plus long term potential.

cLowNEY42's picture

except they're going to have a shitload of open roster spots to fill. this is not the year to give away picks.

Clay's picture

....that way we can get Mosley, Guenaj

Arlo's picture

Since you made the 1st post, quick question. --- Picking at 21, what are the odds that there is only ONE name that GB considers as BPA?

I would contend that at 21 GB may have a half dozen or more that they could call BPA on their board at the time. One of that group has to be a defensive player.

Clay's picture

I understand fellas that there may be more than one BPA at that spot. Point taken. I mean in the event of an exceptional consensus monster player that falls in the Pack's lap because other teams pass on the player because of making a run at a certain position like defensive end or whatever. Case in point: Aaron Rodgers. Yea we kinda needed a QB, but easily could have gone all in on a play making receiver or whatever that year to help Brett in his twilight years.

Hank Scorpio's picture

Sounds like trade down time, if that happens. Get an extra pick and still get someone from that group.

The TKstinator's picture

I would think that every team drafting at almost any spot in the draft would always have a number of players with equal grades, unless of course as stated earlier a "monster" player falls, like Aaron Rodgers, or Randy Moss.
Remember, Adrian Peterson was picked 7th the year he came out, and the Vikes had Chester Taylor at the time and he had just rushed for over 1,200 yards the previous season.

Stroh's picture

TKstinator... Peterson went 7th due to injury concerns. Most felt he was the best player in that draft. Other teams passed on him including AZ who picked Levi Brown at #5! Just utter stupidity. AP had been hurt in each of his college seasons IIRC.

Stephen's picture

Here's a way we can fix the secondary; clean house of these scrub safeties (except Morgan), sign Jarius Byrd and Aquib Talib from Buffalo and New England, draft Calvin Pryor, and convert Tramon Williams to safety. We do that, we'll have a fresh, revamped secondary, plus we'll have TALENT in the secondary, something we're lacking severely. Oh, and what the hell, give Nick Collins a chance and sign him to a 1-year deal, to see if he can still play for us!

Evan's picture

"...convert Tramon Williams to safety."

Whaaaa?

Phatgzus's picture

Not sure if serious...

MarkinMadison's picture

I'm sure he's not.

Phatgzus's picture

I hope not.

Albert Lingerfeld's picture

The team would not be in the mess it is now, needing a lot of talent and very few draft picks, if TT and the boys didn't screw with the so called draft and develop plan.
Hey, that works for the 9rs, Seattle, etc, teams deep in skilled players and able to stuff guys on the bench as back up fill in's until they are ready.

Bert's picture

I think draft & develop will work as long as you can consistently have very good to excellent drafts. Ted has had some very good drafts but he's also had some just average/good and not-so-good (2011) drafts. Pretty soon the talent gets diluted which is where the Packers are today. Then it gets very hard to catch up when you can realistically fill only 1 or 2 (maybe 3 max) holes in a single draft. I think we are kinda falling behind in the last 3 years in that regard.

Stroh's picture

Picking at the end of every round for nearly a decade will do that. Huge difference between top 10 and bottom 10 even in the 1st round much less every subsequent round

Bert's picture

So if you want to stay on top of the heap and you're drafting at the bottom of each round then you better sign some FAs or you go in the dumper. Oh. Let's not go there again.

Stroh's picture

Not necessarily... It just means you have to find a playmaker or 2 later in the 1st or in other rounds. I think we can all argee that Thompson has done that w/ Rodgers, Matthews, Lacy, Nelson and Cobb. Clearly he's found them on offense to this point. On Defense we lost Collins, Woodson, Bishop as primary playmakers. We need to find one or 2 from the recent drafts or this draft. Collins didn't become a playmaker till yr 4, same w/ Bishop and they were both taken after the 1st. Just need some of the recent picks on Defense to become playmakers like Collins and Bishop did once they developed.

MarkinMadison's picture

"very few draft picks"

If by "very few" you mean the normal 7 plus some expected compensatory draft picks, then yes, TT has screwed up and has very few picks.

Phatgzus's picture

Not to mention almost every draft he trades around and collects another 2 or 3 or 4 picks.

Ho Le Fuk's picture

Can't tell you what position to draft first, they need so much. If I was God I would probably take three safeties in a row but that ain't happening.

The TKstinator's picture

What does your screen name mean?

Stroh's picture

IMO the most likely pick will be Hageman. One of the safeties will probably be gone by the time the Packers pick come up (like Clinton-Dis) and I don't think Pryor, who I like a lot is worthy of the 21st pick. I think Mosley will be gone as well... I do think it'll be a Defensive player however. Any player on offense isn't likely to be much, if any higher ranking. That being the case the pick is likely to be on Defense and most likely the DL.

Hageman would be an ideal 34 DE and nickel pass rusher. The only issue w/ Hageman IMO, is that he has a possibility of being a Boom/Bust pick. Would like to have more of a known quantity w/o the bust potential. But in the end the huge upside of Hageman will win out and he'll be the pick.

Not sold on Nix at NT, tho he makes sense as well. I like Tuitt and would love to get him in the 2nd if we don't get Hageman in the 1st.

cLowNEY42's picture

I agree with all of this.
Hageman scares me, though.

RC Packer Fan's picture

Honestly, at 21, I think Hageman would be an ok pick. I am not sold on him yet though. I still want to watch more tape on him.
He would scare me though for teams drafting him in the top 15. He is a player that seems to really rise after the combine and a player that teams will draft based on his stature then play on the field.

He definitely has boom/bust potential.

Tuitt I like but I don't see any way he lasts to the Packers in the 2nd round. I think he will go in the top 40 picks. Probably 20-40 range. Although its still early in the process..

Badger's picture

I generally agree with all of this. It's really a bummer that Eric Reid was taken before we could draft him. He would have really helped transform our defense. I'm not really sold on Clinton-Dix or Pryor being that kind of impact player.

And the defensive linemen all have their warts in this class. The thing with Hageman that is so scary is that he clearly has the tools to be very special but right now he's just an athlete trying to play football. When he uses his hands (holding of defenders when two-gapping, clubbing etc) he's very good. But when he doesn't and tries to rip or just bulldoze, he's incredibly average.

MarkinMadison's picture

I think Hageman will probably go before 21. He will get a boost from the combine. I think he is most definitely a boom/bust pick. I'd love to hear from someone who has studied his film against top competition.

Phatgzus's picture

From what I've heard he seems to have a pre-draft status the likes of Nick Fairley. If he can be that good, he'll be a steal. I do think he'll be gone by our pick, as will Pryor (considering the presumed talent gap between he and C-D and the rest of the class) and I just can't see the best ILB by a landslide falling out of the top 15. If none of those guys are left (and Aaron Donald and/or Buchanon are), I would actually like to see us trade down and pick up a higher 2nd-round pick.

al's picture

calvin p sounds good pic at 21 :)

RC Packer Fan's picture

I want to see his combine numbers first. His biggest question is speed. So after the combine if he runs a good 40 time I think he will be in the 20-25 range. If he doesn't I think he falls out of the first.

MarkinMadison's picture
KurtMc's picture

Can we draft a trainer so the team doesn't have major injuries for the 4th year in a row... just kidding of course.

Too early to tell. BPA, as long as it's a Safety.

The Pack have a little North of 26 Mil of Cap room. Maybe TT will suprise all draft other than Def/OL and get FA help? Ha ha, I doubt it.

Wowza's picture

When you don't use FA or look for players via trade then your forced to skip BPA and take positions of need. Thats TTs problem and if he hasn't figured that out by now he probably never will. Sad but true.

The TKstinator's picture

GB had Justin Harrell, SF had Kentwan Balmer.
Anybody heard of him? (Without looking it up.)

Stroh's picture

I remember him from the draft and hearing about him, certainly not from his play on the field. I don't think he had the injury issue to use as a crutch for his poor play. IIC he went to North Carolina. Bout 6'5 305 DL.

The TKstinator's picture

Yeah I was just trying to let some of the guys on here know that even the almighty 49ers have had busts too, you know?

Evan's picture

Like, maybe, LaMichael James?

The TKstinator's picture

Now you're talking.
I think some of us have "reverse homerism"; that SEA and SF do EVERYTHING right. Well, they don't.

Stroh's picture

If you listen to Arloser, CowPie and a couple others, Seattle and SF can do nothing wrong and the Packers can do nothing right! Makes it seem all to obvious where their loyalties actually lie!

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