As much as this week’s opponent is formidable, it just feels right that the Packers should have to take on the Bears at this point of the season to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Green Bay has had its way with Chicago basically since 1992, and Bears fans are cautiously optimistic that the pendulum is beginning to swing their way.

For once, it’s the Packers’ quarterback whose performances are subject to scrutiny under the microscope. It’s the Packers who’ve had turmoil and upheaval at general manager and head coach. And it’s the cheeseheads, not the Ditka acolytes, who have one eye on the draft as the playoffs approach.

The Bears have had good seasons, but sustained success has eluded the franchise for an entire generation. With a young and promising franchise core of Ryan Pace, Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky, Bears fans have reason for optimism.

Yet specters of seasons past still haunt Chicago and its fans.

The most recent example was Aaron Rodgers’ miraculous second-half comeback in Week 1, stealing a victory seemingly from nowhere on one leg. The shadow of No. 12 still looms over the Bears.

Every Chicago fan I know is optimistic and excited about this year’s team, but not a single one that I talked to this week could express that upbeat outlook without some kind of qualifier involving Rodgers. Until the clock reads all zeroes, Bears fans will live in fear of Rodgers, even if his efficiency isn’t quite up to his own standards.

Once bitten, twice shy, I suppose.

And so the prevailing attitudes of two fanbases are at stake Sunday, in addition to playoff implications. A Bears win would be a tremendous relief for Chicago fans and would allow them to consider a changing of the guard in the NFC North. An opportunity to extinguish the Packers’ lukewarm playoff chances would be a cathartic step for Dah Bearsss.

A Packers victory and 2018 sweep, however, would preserve that fear and extend Green Bay’s 25-plus years of dominance in this classic rivalry.

-26.3%

Spoiler alert: the Bears’ defense is good. According to Football Outsiders, Chicago’s is the league’s best with a DVOA of -26.3%. Not only is the Bears’ defense the best, but it’s nearly twice as good as the next best unit, which resides in Baltimore (-13.3%). The Bears essentially make any given opposing offense look worse than the Jets.  

-30.2% and -23.9%

These are the Bears’ defensive DVOA numbers against the run and the pass, respectively, both tops in the NFL. This is all to say that there are no holes in this unit. In fact, Football Outsiders breaks down pass defense by intended receiver type (primary, secondary, tight end, running back, etc.), and the Bears’ defense is no worse than eighth-best against any individual target type. There will be no easy answers for Joe Philbin when gameplanning this week.

There have been more dominant defenses in league history, but this unit stands out in a league-year that’s been all about flashy offense. They stop the run. They rush the passer. They cover. And with an NFL-leading 34 forced turnovers, they make momentous plays.

The only reasonable attack plan I can see is in the short passing game over the middle. Slot corner Bryce Callahan has just been placed on IR, so it may be Randall Cobb’s turn to shine. Rodgers unloading the ball quickly was what worked best in Week 1, and it may be the Packers’ only hope to neutralize an intimidating pass rush.

386

On the other side of the ball, the Bears’ biggest threat has been the running prowess of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. He’s second on the team with 386 rushing yards and is averaging 6.8 yards per carry.

The second-year quarterback has been inconsistent throwing the ball this year. He had a six-touchdown game against Tampa in Week 4. But he’s thrown just 13 touchdowns to nine interceptions since.

And Chicago’s designed run game isn’t particularly successful either. Their offensive line ranks 28^th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards.

Trubisky has picked up 26 first downs on the ground this season, and it really does seem that the Bears’ offense needs that extra dimension to assemble successful drives, along with Nagy’s creative and deceptive play designs.

The Packers’ defense has been successful at limiting opposing running threats at quarterback this season, holding Russell Wilson and Josh Allen to a combined 36 yards on 10 carries. Mike Pettine’s ability to pressure Trubisky without opening gaping scramble lanes may just be the key to a Green Bay upset victory and keeping the Packers’ longshot playoff hopes alive.