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Odds on the Packers' First-Round Draft Choice

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Odds on the Packers' First-Round Draft Choice

The following odds are for entertainment purposes. A couple of assumptions are made, the first being that the Packers remain at the No. 28 slot in the first round of the draft and do not trade either up or down. The odds also reflect the likelihood that a player will still be on the board by the time the 28th selection comes around.

  • Boise State outside linebacker Shea McClellin, 4-to-1 odds––The high-rising prospect is a popular choice of the Green Bay Packers in internet mock drafts. He also fills a need for the Packers who are looking to fill the starter's position opposite Clay Matthews at the right outside linebacker spot. McClellin compares favorably to Matthews, which only fuels the speculation that the Boise State prospect fills what the Packers are looking for from the position.
  • The field, 5-to-1 odds––Ted Thompson is unpredictable. Who would have guess that he'd draft defensive lineman Justin Harrell back in 2007? It's also harder to predict who will still be available late in round one than it is earlier in the round. And based upon the selections of Aaron Rodgers in 2005 and Bryan Bulaga in 2010, the Packers haven't been afraid to pull the trigger on a player that slides further than predicted.
  • Michigan State defensive lineman Jerel Worthy, 7-to-1 odds––The Packers are badly in need of pass rush help, and Worthy just may be the best pass-rushing defensive lineman still available by the time pick No. 28 rolls around. Questions about his ability to play on early downs, particularly defending the run, still need to be answered.
  • Connecticut defensive lineman Kendall Reyes, 9-to-1 odds––Reyes has the potential to be a more well-rounded defensive lineman than Worthy, but he also perhaps doesn't have the upside of Worthy either. Regardless, Reyes is the safer choice and could be the type of player that will be able to pick up where Cullen Jenkins left off.
  • Wisconsin center Peter Konz, 10-to-1 odds––The Packers have obvious needs on the defensive side of the ball, but if they're going to truly stick to the best player available philosophy, Konz may be the guy. Not only is he the undisputed No. 1 center prospect in the Draft, the Packers need to find the long-term replacement for newly signed Jeff Saturday.
  • Alabama outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw, 12-to-1 odds––At one point, the thought that Upshaw would still be available by the 28th pick in the Draft seemed like fantasy. After displaying pedestrian athleticism during his pro day workout, Upshaw is now a mock draft slider and a more realistic option for the Packers late in round one.
  • USC outside linebacker Nick Perry, 12-to-1 odds––Perry brings high pass rush potential to the table, but the issue still to be resolved is whether he's suited to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 defensive system or he even wants to. Perry stated at the NFL Combine that he's more comfortable with his hand in the dirt. However, a couple million dollars has the tendency to change a player's mind.
  • Alabama inside linebacker Dont'a Hightower, 15-to-1 odds––There seems to be an infatuation in Pittsburgh with Hightower making it perhaps unlikely he'll slide past the 24th pick in the draft. But if he does, Hightower brings an intriguing ability that he can play either inside or outside linebacker that will make him difficult to pass up.

Brian Carriveau is a writer for Cheesehead TV. To contact Brian, email carriveau@uwalumni.com.

Comments (23)

Denver's picture

I'm all for McClellin and have been for awhile though I'm still hoping they could trade down 8-10 picks and still get him.

However, if Collins isn't going to come back, I think the Pack probably needs to do all they can do to nab Barron if he's still around at 20.

If they stay at 28, then I say Worthy.

Ah, who am I kidding? I'll take 'The Field'.

ScottL's picture

I agree regarding McClellin and about Barron.

BubbaOne's picture

When McClellin was projected in the latter half of round two I was hoping TT could trade down w/ KC...picks 28 and 197 for picks 44 and 74. He could take Shea and have the extra 3rd rounder...oh well.
Barron appears to be lacking in coverage so I hope TT addresses the position later, maybe taking a CB to play S.
Don't want Worthy. Right now Shea or Dont'a at 28.And like you who am I kidding...hell, he'll probably take Mohammed Sanu.

PackersRS's picture

I'm preparing myself if Tannehill falls.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

My sources tell me to take the field. Funny how before Indy Shea was widely thought to be a second half of the second round guy... I hope we land him though.

GBP 4 LIFE

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

FWIW, I gave a guy Tiger, Phil, and Rory, I took the field at Augusta... Worked out well. Well done Bubba, well done.

BubbaOne's picture

Thank you

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

You are a good man and one helluva fun golfer to watch. It was my pleasure.

ebongreen's picture

McClellin or Reyes - yes. Hightower - okay. Worthy, Upshaw, Perry - ugh. Konz - meh.

Another talent I think the Packers might consider, even at 28, is Vinny Curry of Marshall - though they could also possibly trade down for him.

cow42's picture

shea mcclellin.

Jamie's picture

EBONGREEN - agree completely. Might add Irvin as a dark horse selection, maybe in the category of Curry (after trade down).

jim's picture

an article written in packer report regarding the packers bringing to green bay a highly touted linebacker as one of the twenty potential draftees that they can bring to green bay and interview implies that the packers often save these interviews for those who dont get drafted and are often signed as free agents. the fact that they are interviewing an athlete that is a potential high round pick, differing from tradition, suggests to me that the packers may feel that this draft"s potential to add some talent to the team lies primarily with increasing the upper echelon of talent, rather than expanding the base of talent. i suspect the pack to use those 12 picks, if possible, to trade up and get some top talent. of course, if clifton, driver, collins, and quarless dont return, we may need all 12 of those picks...

Hands's picture

If TT stays w/ his BPA, maybe the WR from GT could be the selection. Seems a long shot but who knows at this point.
If TT has several players rated the same...may move down to pick up the one guy left and add another pick or two.

Rymetyme's picture

Taking a Day 1 or 2 WR would be shocking, even for Ted. It means he would be willing to part with 3 of these 4: Driver, Jones, Borel or Gurley.

God I hope he doesn't do that!

Cole's picture

I could understand if he took WR Hill, the guy is gonna be a beast, as long as he still got McClellin or Curry in the second by a trade up.. Also think Derek Wolfe is gonna be a stud hopefully he's there in rd two or three if we don't trade up.

Irish Cheesehead's picture

I just want a bookend at OLB, whoever that may be. TT has added a couple bodies on the DL in free agency. He really needs to address OLB. I don't want to think of another season with the Zombo-Walden-Jones rotation.

razor's picture

The hands-down #1 priority for GB is to acquire an A quality OLB. If TT does anything else he is insane. Why? Makes CM better, makes the D-line better, makes the defensive backs better, takes pressure off of the offense. It's a win-win-win scenario and TT has lots of picks to use if necessary to make a move. Normally I think more picks are better but this year a few (3-4) key picks should make a huge difference. If the first pick is for the offense, I'm selling my share of stock.

PackersRS's picture

Who's that A quality OLB in this draft? Maybe Melvin Ingram, but he didn't play OLB in a 3-4, and there's a good chance that even if we move up we can't get him. The rest are B and C. Even a C would be a huge improvement over what we have and help tremenduously the pass rush, but I don't think there's a Woodley in there.

And I agree with you, except I don't have any shares to sell...

fred's picture

Adding a quality player on the DL is just as important as finding a quality OLB. The OLB's opposite Matthews got the job done just fine in 2010 when the DL was generating some pressure.

Irish_Cheesehead's picture

I would agree if Ted didn't already add some help on the DL in FA. Definitely need to address it further, but would rather see an OLB with the first pick.

redlights's picture

No stock to sell, here, either. But, how does OLB make the DLine better? I'll agree with defense over offense, Muir is the dline equivalent of Peprah. Maybe Hargrove can do it; but I'd be more irritated by lack of dline help, more than OLB help. Draft Stills to wreak havoc, and Brad Jones can hold down olb adequately (if healthy).

Irish_Cheesehead's picture

I have more faith in a healthy Zombo than Jones.

packsmack25's picture

Whole-heartedly against McClellin in the first. Not enough impact plays for a guy that played against mostly lower-tier competition. A lot of his sacks were just effort sacks, and he only created four turnovers in four seasons in college. If he could be snagged in the second, fine. But he doesn't make enough impact plays to be a first rounder.

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