Nick Perry: 2015 Packers Player Report Card
By hobbes
Nick Perry
- Age: 25
- Ht./Wt: 6'3", 265lbs
- College: USC
- NFL Experience: 4 years
Expectations coming into the season: Make a splash and get paid (by someone). Perry's stock has taken something of a nose-dive since being drafted in the 1st round; while he hasn't been a complete bust like Justin Harrell, Jerel Worthy or Brian Brohm, getting constantly injured and falling in the pass rushing rotation surely didn't help his stock either. Still, Perry avoided perhaps the biggest knock the coaching staff could have done, which is try to convert him to inside linebacker, which is where all failed outside linebackers (save Clay Matthews, which is a completely different matter) go after proving they can't play on the edge. Still, after the Packers declined his 5th year option, Perry went into the season as a contract year and needed to make a statement in order to make some money.
Player’s highlights/low-lights: Saving Perry's postseason heroics for the playoff section, Perry's best regular season game was by far against San Francisco where he notched 2 sacks on Colin Kaepernick. Perry has only recorded 2 sacks in a game three times in his career so this was a big one. For lowlights, Perry had 4 games where he failed to record a sack, a tackle or even an assist.
Level of Expectations met: Perry pretty much replicated his 2014 season and overall was just about as effective as any of the other outside linebackers. While he only recorded 3.5 sacks and 16 tackles, he also played about 50% less snaps than Peppers or Neal, which actually evens out their production per snap to relatively similar numbers. While it's debatable if Perry would have been any better had he taken a full workload, it does bode relatively well for his chances to stick in Green Bay; with Neal also a free agent, it's likely Ted Thompson will have to pick one or the other; Neal is a older, will be working for his 3rd contract and doesn't have the same pedigree (although close as a 2nd round pick) making Perry's chances higher.
Grade: C+
Player’s contributions to team success: Perry effectively was the "next man up" in the outside line rotation after Julius Peppers and Mike Neal (and Clay Matthews depending on the situation). Dom Capers likes to substitute players and get them in unusual places to confuse offenses so having fresh pass rushers who can line up in multiple spots and rush from different locations is a plus. Peppers, Neal and Perry all have experience rushing from a 3 point stance and all can sub in as an interior defender if the situation calls for it. That being said, Perry's production was essentially average or slightly above average for the outside linebacker corps. The Packers probably would have missed his sacks but they probably wouldn't fall apart if they didn't have them.
Grade: C+
Player’s contributions in the playoffs: Perry made his case for a 2nd contract during the playoffs. Perry was an absolute monster against the Redskins (particularly against Trent Williams) and recorded 2.5 sacks, 2 tackles and 2 assists and was a major part of the reason why quarterback Kirk Cousins was off balance the entire 2nd half of the game. Perry followed that up by recording another sack against Carson Palmer vs. the Cardinals and adding 3 more tackles and a assist. Overall, perhaps no player played a more complete game on defense over the postseason than Perry. Luckily, two good games likely won't drive up his asking price too high (especially when other teams look at the other 46 games he's been a part of but he's certainly put a good final statement on his rookie contract.
Grade: A
Intangibles/misc: Perry's a pretty quiet guy so it's hard to say what others think of him. Perry did let it known that he prefered to play as a defensive end in a 4-3, so it's possible that Perry takes a prove it deal where he can show his skills in his preferred position.
Grade: N/A
Comments (51)
NickPerry
January 29, 2016 at 06:32 am
I'd like to see him stay because it's not like the Packers have much depth there and he plays the run pretty well. My guess is he's gone to play in a 4-3 defense, maybe even the Lions or Rams since he grew up in Michigan and went to USC. No matter what he shouldn't cost too much.
Tundraboy
January 29, 2016 at 07:01 am
Essentially that is how I see it,. Would like to see him stay for another year or two, however my gut says he gone,so another wasted pick. Please no more conversion projects. Puleez.
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 08:33 am
It's possible that the conversion projects might be fewer and further between as 3-4 defenses become more prominent in the college ranks, but when colleges play predominantly even fronts, finding guys with the attributes to play on the outside at the NFL level requires that projection. Even still, many odd-front OLBs in college are too light or small to play the outside at the NFL level and tend to project inside.
lou
January 29, 2016 at 10:26 am
I agree Tundra boy, "he;s gone", the hand writing was on the wall when Thompson did not pick up his rookie contract last years option. Everyone is dead on on why he did not in their posts, he has not been consistently available and that has led to no consistency in his performance when available. It is sad, he holds the edge better than any of the other LB's and his bull rush at times can't be stopped even by All Pro left tackles (see the Washington playoff game). Agreed also with Tundra boy that the experiment of hoping guys that play DE with their hands down being converted to stand up LB's comes to and end. We now have seen it with Perry, Neal, and it looks like Dantone Jones will join that group (my guess is he becomes like Perry a candidate to not have his rookie contract extended).
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 11:44 am
I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones get his 5th year. He seems to be catching on, and the arrow seems to be pointing up on him. He's likely earned the benefit-of-the-5th-year-doubt.
lou
January 29, 2016 at 05:00 pm
Here is todays Green Bay Press Gazette's rating of Jones, they don't see Ted picking up the option;
Depth on the defensive line thrust the 2013 first-round pick back into a limited role in the dime package. Looking to get Jones more opportunities, the organization gave the green light at midseason to moving him to outside linebacker. Two weeks into his shift to a two-point stance, Jones had perhaps the best game of his career against Minnesota when he registered two sacks and four quarterback hits on Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Moved outside because of his strength and pass-rush ability, Jones was better than expected at setting the edge in the run game. Was asked to drop into coverage only three times, according to Pro Football Focus. Jones finished the season with 20 tackles, three passes defensed and three sacks in 15 games. He also was third on the team in hits (12) and tied for fourth in tackles for loss (seven). Jones probably won’t live up to the first-round hype, but he has been a good rotational rusher for the Packers. His value could increase this offseason with several upcoming free agents at outside linebacker and defensive lineman. With one year remaining on his rookie contract, it seems unlikely the Packers will pick up his fifth-year option this offseason.
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 08:13 pm
I could be wrong... ;)
lou
January 30, 2016 at 08:08 am
I hope he is given another chance, it looks like Perry is gone, Neal may attract some offers that can't be matched, we have to hit on one of these guys, plus the fact Peppers either retires or regresses will leave the OLB position as weak as the ILB postiion. Even the great young CB's can't balance that.
NickPerry
January 30, 2016 at 08:40 am
Wouldn't it be something if Thompson actually tried to draft and OLB to play OLB. First they try and pack pounds on Neal and he's hurt ALL the time, Perry looked like a Square peg in a Round hole early, plus Perry SAID he prefers to play in a 4-3 with his hand in the dirst and TT still took him. Jones like Neal and Perry is another are tring this with, he was playing there at the end of the year at times.
More than anything TT did want to pay Perry $7 million plus for 2016 and neither will anyone else. They have to sign one of them IMO for sure, otherwise you'll have the OLB group looking like the Safeties did in 2013. I like Elliott but would you count on him? Or Mulumba?
hobbes
January 29, 2016 at 01:33 pm
While the college game is slowly adopting to the NFL and the predominance of the 3-4 defense, there still are relatively few teams in college that run the 3-4 (well) and thus most players will be conversion projects. Given how dilute talent is in college, the chance that a highly regarded 3-4 OLB prospect happens to play on a 3-4 defense and happens to show enough to make the transition easy is pretty small.
WKUPackFan
January 30, 2016 at 05:17 am
100% correct Thomas, and excellentlly stated.
RCPackerFan
January 29, 2016 at 07:10 am
If Perry could just stay healthy...
He flashes his talent at times, the problem is he can't do it consistently because he is always ailing with an injury.
I would like to see him return. I wouldn't mind seeing him sign one of those 2 year deals that the Packers have been doing lately.
Bearmeat
January 29, 2016 at 07:37 am
They only that'd happen is if he was still on the market in May and it was cheap. He's healthy now and schooled an all pro LT in the playoffs twice when everyone was watching.
He gone. Probably along with Neal too.
Tundraboy
January 29, 2016 at 08:51 am
I know. Figures. If he only stayed healthy and showed that more consistently. Now he'll probably end up with his best years playing for someone else after we invested all that time waiting. I hear this draft is deep at OLB, so maybe we will get lucky with someone who shines immediately. We sure are due for some good luck at this position.
Since'61
January 29, 2016 at 08:06 am
Tundra - your last sentence is spot on! Thanks, Since '61
Tundraboy
January 29, 2016 at 08:53 am
Since 61, Thanks. I sure hope so. Then we can attend to getting an ILB. Right now I think TE is needed more.
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 09:18 am
At the time of the draft last year, I was really optimistic about its OLB depth and disappointed--at that time--that the Packers didn't take a shot with that depth (I would have killed to see Lorenzo Mauldin in a Packer uni). I'm pleased with how the Packer picks turned out on days 1-2, but they really need to do something in that area this year.
hobbes
January 29, 2016 at 01:36 pm
I don't think teams hold 2 playoff games as highly as Packers fans do; keep in mind Matt Flynn had an All-Pro outing in week 17 of the 2011 season and that didn't translate into much interest. Sure, teams will see the great post season Perry produced, but they'll also see all the missed time with injuries and all the games where he didn't do anything. If anything, the Packers probably value him more than the rest of the league. In my opinion, the only reason why Perry leaves is because he wants to play in a 4-3. That or someone has a massive brain fart and wants to sign a Erik Walden all over again
Tundraboy
January 29, 2016 at 06:30 pm
RC, I too would like for him to stay as well. I also feel for some strange reason, more like a hunch, that his injury filled seasons are a thing of the past but someone is probably crazy enough like with Walden, to give him a long term contract and more money than we offer.
stockholder
January 29, 2016 at 07:38 am
Bye Nick. You'll get more money somewhere else. You played with heart. I enjoyed watching you play and contribute. Good Luck.
Since'61
January 29, 2016 at 08:04 am
Nick Perry was drafted to provide a strong pass rush from the other side of CM3 to help remove the double teams CM3 faces during a passing down. Injuries have been a factor but even when healthy Perry has rarely lived up to his first round billing. He has been a first round miss for TT. If Peppers decides to retire the Packers will likely need to resign Perry rather than lose both OLBs. If Peppers stays, then resigning Perry becomes a matter of price. I might give him a one year show me contract but definitely nothing more than a 2 year deal. I'm not sure that Perry can play much better than what we have already seen even when healthy. The fact that he is earning a B- grade at this point in his career pretty much says it all. Thanks, Since '61
Tundraboy
January 29, 2016 at 08:59 am
Since 61, Spot on. Wish we could fast forward and see how things end up. Sooner rather than later.
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 09:13 am
I think you did a good job of putting Peppers in the light of Perry's performance: would the Packers have signed Peppers if Perry was developing, playing, and earning increased snaps? Sure, Perry had only one year in when the Packers signed Peppers--and he might have been just too good to pass up, regardless--but a strong showing by Perry might have meant that all that cap space for Peppers went somewhere else.
It continues to show how important hitting on your draft picks, regardless of round, is to being a successful NFL franchise.
Tundraboy
January 29, 2016 at 09:17 am
So true.
Since'61
January 29, 2016 at 12:26 pm
Good points Dobber. Like so many alternative scenarios, we'll never know.
Thanks, Since '61
jeremyjjbrown
January 29, 2016 at 12:50 pm
"regardless of round"
IDK, there are not many good teams who have whiffed the majority of the time on their 1st rounders. Most of the impact players come off the board early. Packers have 0 Probowls from their first rounders drafted 2010-2015. They need to be a lot better there.
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 01:03 pm
I put that in there because I've been beat up on in the past for asserting that those 1-3 round picks absolutely must be panning out. You get a thumbs up!
hobbes
January 29, 2016 at 01:42 pm
I wouldn't say that the Packers have whiffed on the majority of 1st rounders since 2010; whiffing would be Brian Brohm, Jerel Worthy or Justin Harrell. While none of the players drafted in the 1st round have turned into superstars I still think they are above average players at their positions.
jeremyjjbrown
January 29, 2016 at 04:33 pm
I didn't say they did either. I said they need to do better.
hobbes
January 29, 2016 at 05:07 pm
I'm not sure what more can be expected, the league wide success rate on 1st round picks is really low. Hell, the entire draft success rate is really low.
jeremyjjbrown
January 29, 2016 at 07:37 pm
OK you have low expectations.
I expect a team who only really drafts to be one of the top five teams in the league at drafting. And since 2011 they are not. Hopefully the 2014, 2015 drafts pan out because 2012 and 2013 where bad and 2011 was the worst draft class in the league that year.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 30, 2016 at 08:09 pm
I realize that technically Perry and Datone are indeed 1st round selections. I think of them as Tier 4 selections and Clinton Dix as a Tier 3 selection. It varies from draft to draft, but usually there are 1-3 or 4 Tier 1 players. Often there are another 7-10 Tier 2 prospects, and 10-12 Tier 3 players. I remember having first round grades on only 2 prospects when GB took Dix. I would say that there often are 15 players in Tier 4, which is where most of the first round picks that GB gets come from.
Looking back, I had Dix and Bulaga as Tier 3 prospects, and not surprisingly they have been pretty good 1st round picks. I had Sherrod, Datone, Perry and Randall as Tier 4 picks. Only Randall looks like a real good player (jury is still out a little). I had Raji as a Tier 2 prospect, which makes him disappointing.
I have to agree pretty much with Jeremy: if you are only going to use the draft to build your team, the GM better have really solid draft most years.
Razer
January 29, 2016 at 08:16 am
Most comments about Nick Perry start with "if". I almost think that I am reading about Jermichael Finley. Heck, Finley actually showed more production than Nick Perry.
Perry obviously has skill as a DE. He is miscast as a Packer OLB where he is asked to do more than bull rush the QB. And, anything more than a part-time role will guarantee that he ends up injured. We saw a flash at the end of the season and we all have hope BUT little in four years is the reality. I'll take Mike Neal over Perry because at least you'll get a full season out of Neal.
TT needed to find a 4-3 team who needed a DE with 'potential' so that we could have picked up an ILB with 'potential'.
Anything above a "C" is too high.
WKUPackFan
January 29, 2016 at 09:03 am
Respectfully disagree in part. Perry has been praised after several games over the past two seasons for setting a good edge against the run from the OLB position. It's difficult to show much more with Neal playing so well.
I'll bet Nick wishes he had never made the "hand on ground" statement. No wonder he's been quiet since.
Razer
January 29, 2016 at 09:11 am
Good point. We still need more from Nick. More snaps, more healthy availability, more coverage potential and less ifs
hobbes
January 29, 2016 at 01:44 pm
Find me an ILB with "potential" that would have been a good trade for Perry's potential. Player for player trades are rare and Perry is cheap on the last year of his contract.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 29, 2016 at 08:40 am
I agree with the comments, and pretty much with the author. Perry never showed a 2nd move as a pass rusher. He was not a guy that the LB coach would want to put on his resume. I don't think he was any better or even any different in his 4th year versus his 2nd season. I think Perry does one or two things better than Neal, but Neal does more things reasonably well, which is why for the last few years the coaches played Neal twice as many snaps as Perry even when both were healthy.
My guess is that he commands perhaps $4.5 million per year, probably on a 2-yr. prove it contract. It wouldn't surprise me if he chooses a 4-3 team to work as a DE. I don't think Neal has many options and can be re-signed for the same money he has been getting. I view Neal as a below average starter.
Tough decisions for TT. We have a good but only part time OLB in CM3, a somewhat above average OLB in Peppers, plus whatever one thinks Elliott & Mulumba might bring to the table. I expect to see a triple dip by TT in the front 7 - a OLB, an ILB and a DL (I prefer a DE), very possibly in that order.
Tundraboy
January 29, 2016 at 09:12 am
I think you're right.
Packer_Pete
January 29, 2016 at 11:10 am
I agree with you that he wants to play DE on a 4-3 team and will probably leave. At the same time, it is somewhat a shame. If his heart was in it playing as a 3-4 OLB and if he could stay healthy, he'd be very good. He actually does 2 things really well - speed rush, as well as setting the edge against the run. None of our OLBs sets the edge better than Perry. He outperforms Matthews, Peppers, and especially Neal in that. He was one of the big reasons why the rush D was pretty good this year, besides the monsters in the middle.
jeremyjjbrown
January 29, 2016 at 12:34 pm
"None of our OLBs sets the edge better than Perry."
I think Neal is better, but Perry does a decent job.
hobbes
January 29, 2016 at 02:08 pm
I think the biggest problem is that Neal is older and would be going on to his 3rd contract, which is pretty rare for a Packers player. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Kuhn as a player who got a 3rd contract from the Packers without going somewhere else first (like James Jones)
zoellner25
January 29, 2016 at 08:54 am
Let's replace him with Joe Schobert
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 09:16 am
As much as I like Joe Schobert, I don't think he holds up on the outside in an NFL odd-man front. Sure, he played that spot in college, but I think he'll get picked on in the run game something fierce.
I think he'd be an intriguing OLB --> ILB conversion project, though.
Denver
January 29, 2016 at 11:56 am
If's he's still around in the 4th Rd. I would love to see him picked. Seems there has to be a place for a kid that plays that hard.
Also, call me crazy (wouldn't be the first) but I wonder how Tanner McEvoy would fare as a TE if he were able to bulk up enough...hell of an athlete.
dobber
January 29, 2016 at 01:07 pm
Just a question of where the value and the pick match up on a guy like Schobert. You get to round 4 and now he starts to look pretty good, I agree.
I just don't think McEvoy likes contact very much...that he's a QB at heart. I think he's a project no matter what position a team puts him at, and he might have an Owen Daniels kind of ceiling at TE, but I fear that's a reach.
TarynsEyes
January 29, 2016 at 10:32 am
Perry was a bad reach pick and I have never wavered from that belief. Keeping him now for two year deal would only enable the false brief and would deter getting a more closer day one starter at the position. It may not be a step backwards but it isn't the forward step needed at the position but merely a stand still rinse and repeat failure.
hobbes
January 29, 2016 at 02:12 pm
I think Perry was picked pretty much where everyone expected him to be picked which was in the 20s of the 1st round. Also keep in mind the Packers are picking late this year (28th ish?) So it's not like a sure HOF is waiting for the Packers this year either.
TarynsEyes
January 29, 2016 at 03:51 pm
That would/may be true for a 4-3 defense ranking him at that 1st rd selection. But Perry was near or at 280 and his selection as a 3-4 outside linebacker made that a big reach and has failed as evidenced. Where we pick cannot be a yearly excuse for reach picks even if for need. Best player at the pick regardless of position, less QB, would imitate the odds or decrease them against failure as getting valuable field play anywhere is better than what we have gotten via the reach option of hope it works.
hobbes
February 01, 2016 at 02:05 pm
Perry's combine numbers did lead many analyst to predict that Perry could play either in a 4-3 or a 3-4. Perry's numbers were similar to Matthews and football outsiders actually calculated that he was going to be one of the better pass rushers in the draft (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012) Another thing to consider is that the pass rushing group as a whole was pretty weak that year; basically no player has become a dominant pass rusher in the league yet (maybe Jones? But that's a little debatable since he's mostly a ILB at this point).
D Ernesto
January 29, 2016 at 05:13 pm
I followed Perry when he was a high school standout in Michigan. Heavely recruited he game M the middle finger if you will and went to USC thinkg, big stage, me me me me.
He was way overated except by the analyst who said he was a two pick at best. His d line make him better than he was.
This was a terrible pick for Ted. Injuries, lack of quickness. poor tackling etc. I hope they let him go but Ted will keep him, he is a one pick
D Ernesto
January 29, 2016 at 05:18 pm
Teams run right at him because he has no sideways mobilty. He was a straight ahead pass rusher his whole life and a failure at OLB. So much for draft and develop