NFL RANT: Eli Manning is Not Elite

Andrew Garda thought we settled this weeks ago—Eli Manning is not an elite quarterback, no matter what his QB rating is this week.

Normally my Thursday mornings are pretty mellow. A little tea, a bagel and usually a slow couple of hours at work.

Every once in a while, during my perusal of the internet, something catches my eye. Sometimes it's an interesting article that tells me something I don't know. Sometimes it's just a well written blog post.

Sometimes it's a blurring of facts so egregious that it needs to be pointed out.

This morning what caught my eye was a New York Post article by George Willis. The article, Hey, Rex, Big Blue still rules this city, is what it is—the usual NYC blather about who is the best team in town.

Rex has a big mouth, Jets don't back it up, Giants rule the city, blah blah blah. (I'd like to take a moment to point out that Giants fans, media and PR people spend A LOT of time bitching about the Jets and their attitude. Try concentrating on the field and maybe you'll make the playoffs again guys.)

It's an ok read to kill five minutes and, honestly, it's not wrong. You need more than big talk to hold the Big Apple. Here's what stood out to me:

It seemed out of character for the Giants when mild-mannered quarterback Eli Manning said during the preseason that he belonged on the same level as three-time Super Bowl winner and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Tom Brady.

Followed by:

These are the facts: There were probably more people that believed Ryan's boasting than believed Manning when he said he belonged on the same level as Brady.

But based on early returns, he does. Manning is the third-ranked quarterback in the league with a 105.6 rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers (124.6) and Brady (111.3). Yesterday, he had the chance to say, "I told you so," but didn't.

No he didn't. You know why? BECAUSE HE CAN'T.

You're telling me, based on his QB rating, Eli Manning is an elite quarterback on the level of Brady and Rodgers? Ok, you know who else—based on that criteria—is on their level?

Matt Hasselbeck. I mean, he's JUST behind the anointed Manning in QB rating. Less than a point, in fact. He did it with more yards, more attempts and a better completion percentage, in point of fact.

You know what I love? Cherry picking stats to make your point.

Listen, Eli Manning is a good quarterback. Even a great one, at times. You can't compare him to Rodgers/Brady or even Brees. I'd toss Rivers ahead of him as well although I wouldn't call Rivers elite.

Dave Goldberg pointed out two things on twitter while I was challenging Willis on the whole elite thing.

First, 'elite' was something ESPN came up with to fill time. Sure the concept was always kind of there, but ESPN really made it a conversation. What's an elite quarterback? It varies depending on who you talk to or about.

I'll get to my take on that in a minute.

Second, Dave points out that Eli isn't in an offense which produces 'elite' QB stats.  I believe what this means is, the Packers (142 attempts) and Patriots (163 attempts) pass far more than the Giants (125 attempts).

The Giants run a far more balanced offense than either other team. I don't disagree with that.

So maybe Eli isn't in a position to succeed the way Brady/Rodgers are.

Let's step back to the concept of 'elite'. When I think of what makes an 'elite' quarterback, stats are important. You have to be able to throw efficiently (pay attention here Mr. Mark Sanchez) and consistently, moving the ball while protecting it.

Doesn't mean you can't have a bad game, ala Mr. Brady's quadruple interceptions a couple weeks back. Just that more often than not you can be counted upon to complete your passes and not turn the ball over.

Over his career, Manning has thrown 164 touchdowns but also 115 interceptions—so he throws 70% as many INTs as he does TDs.

By contrast, Brady has thrown 274 touchdowns and 108 interceptions (39%) and Rodgers (admittedly on a much smaller timeline) has thrown 99 touchdowns and just 34 interceptions (34%).

Do you see a difference? I do.

I can already hear the 'but Eli has crappy wide receivers!' argument. First, Hakeem Nicks is outstanding and Steve Smith was before they let him walk (or limp). Secondly, I'd like to point to Brady's wide receivers prior to Moss' arrival in 2007.

Another mark of an elite quarterback is an ability to come up big in big moments. You can point to Manning overcoming the Pats in 2007, though I would argue a lot of the credit goes to David Tyree and a crappy play by Asante Samuel as well.

I'm not going to take that one away though. I will say that aside from that game, Manning tends to be very inconsistent in big moments. That's not to say he can't play big—he does. Just not as consistently as Rodgers, Brady or Brees.

I can't speak to what he does in the locker-room. We see him pout on the field all the time, but that doesn't mean all that much. Given the way the Giants operate, we might not hear good or ill of him from his teammates. The leadership of Brady or Rodgers is more evident and it's not hard to question Manning when he makes some terrible decision to throw a ball he shouldn't then appears to sulk on the way to the sideline.

To me, being an 'elite'—perhaps a better phrase would be 'one of the best'—is a combination of many things on a consistent basis. That's my biggest issue with Eli Manning—he lacks consistency. He's not 'one of the best' in my opinion because he does not consistently perform at the highest level.

I think it's great Manning disagrees—he should want to be among the best and it's not like he's JaMarcus Russel making the claim.

Is Manning a good NFL quarterback? Absolutely. Is he great? Debatable. Is he one of the best? Is he elite?

In my opinion, far from it. So, you can twist stats as much as you want but it doesn't make it so. Especially when you use one single stat to make a questionable point.

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Comments (35)

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Evan's picture

October 06, 2011 at 09:04 am

If you want proof that Eli and Hasselbeck aren't elite, look no further than my fantasy football record.

Talking about "elite" QBs, yesterday Skip Bayless was ranting and raving about how Romo was "elite." Beyond comprehension.

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 09:16 am

Well Skip is the media example of a troll on a message board. He just throws crap out there to get a reaction.

I tried to keep fantasy out of the discussion because I find people decide to dismiss anything with that bent pretty easily regardless of the point.

But yeah he's not close to fantasy elite.

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Evan's picture

October 06, 2011 at 09:33 am

Yeah, the fantasy comment was more of a joke. Be it fantasy or the real world, I agree, Eli is simply far too inconsistent to be considered an elite QB.

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 09:53 am

Yeah I didn't actually mean for my response to sound so serious LOL

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 10:55 am

Exactly. I don't know why people pay attention to a man that only takes on stances to generate ratings.

It's like dating an active prostitute.

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 10:56 am

Colin Cowherd respectfully disagrees. ;)

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 11:07 am

So does Merril Hoge. He's more disguised as an analyst than the other blalant media whores, but if you pay attention, his stances are ALWAYS ones to go against the norm.

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Michael Wells's picture

October 06, 2011 at 09:31 am

To start yes, I am a Giants fan. I am completely able to put that aside, because trust me, he's killed us(fans) with the inconsistency in the past(see last couple games last year for most recent). I did notice, there was no mention of that, for lack of better word i'll call it, "Manning factor" at the line. Just like big brother he is among the best at reading defensive schemes, and calling backup plays. Do i believe he is elite now? No, tho i would say yes to great. He still has plenty of years in the game to fix his flaws, which(knock on wood) it looks he is on track in doing. The pick are the main point against him, tho I'm assuming you'll admit that a good # of last years picks we on tipped balls, something that is not truly his fault, but on his receivers at that point. This year (again knocking on wood) in 4 games only 2 picks, one on a timing play/missed block into Kerrigan's face, the other (as broken down by M.Hoge) was on an incredible "bait and switch" where the corner rushed in after showing coverage, and the far safety came all the way over out of nowhere to pick it, might i point out a Steve Spagnola designed play, also who spent years working with/against(in practice) Eli. This year i have him from 6th-8th, if we get that poised Manning we've seen since 2nd half of the Rams game, he could slide into top 5. Last i'd like to point out that (may just be my opinion) that "sourpuss" attitude hasn't been seen since he made this statement, could it be this statement was his way of saying that those ways are behind him?? Just used questionable phrasing.

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Michael Wells's picture

October 06, 2011 at 09:33 am

sorry so long, just hearing this A LOT, tho yes you did give him much more credit then most

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 10:51 am

Long is good - cohesive discussions even better! :) Giants fans are welcome (I'm not a Packers fan, I just write NFL stuff here - so you know, more general fans are always welcome for my sanity's sake! ;) )

Seems like he's done the pouting thing off and on this year-but really I think it's just a manning facial expression because his bro has his own version of it.

I think he's done a good job this year. I just think basing a 'point to the scoreboard' moment in an article on just one stat is ridiculous. Lots of games to play and lots of career to go.

We'll see how it goes. Like I said, he's a good QB, at times great. But ultimately I can't say he's on the same level as Brady or Rodgers. It's not about one week or one year - it's about the whole of a career. He's not there right now.

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Evan's picture

October 06, 2011 at 11:21 am

The technical term is "goo face." Jay Cutler also suffers from it.

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 11:23 am

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 11:25 am

WRONG.

Cutler is patient zero. He carries the original strain of Cutlerface.

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Ebongreen's picture

October 06, 2011 at 10:44 am

Peyton Manning? There's an elite QB. Brady (naturally) and Rodgers (at least for the last ten months) are also up there. Brees and Rivers are damn good. Roethlisberger might be up here if he had a better offensive line and wasn't a headcase off the field.

Eli? Good. Has talent, not consistency. He'll win some and lose some, but he's not the blue-chip level of quarterback that has defenders and coordinators shaking in their boots. He's the Jay Cutler or Tony Romo of the East Coast.

Mark Sanchez? A product of good looks and New York hype, so far. If he played as well as he poses for magazine spreads, the Jets would be world-beaters. Too bad he plays like he's posing for Weekly World News instead of GQ.

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 10:56 am

I wasn't gonna drag nacho into this, but since we're on the subject....

As a Jets guy originally I've watched a lot of Sanchez. There are SO many things he does well from a leadership/studying standpoint and he can lead a comeback.

However, as Nagler has pointed out, he often is the reason they DID trail. He makes multiple poor decisions in a game and often gets lucky with a drop that should have been an INT.

Now he's only been a QB1 for three and a half years including college so he gets slack. But so far this year, he's not shown me too much forward progress. Still early, and how he rebounds from the Ravens beating will say a lot about him, but he needs to step his game up.

My take on him right now is, he has a lot of the intangibles you want in a franchise QB and he has a lot of solid physical attributes but he's still not seeing the field and that brings the whole house of cards down.

That the Jets didn't do something about the oline months ago just makes it worse.

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HutHutMike's picture

October 06, 2011 at 11:46 am

I'm sorry, but saying Mark Sanchez has "the intangibles" you want in a franchise QB is just pulling excuses for his poor performance out of thin air.

Consider Mark Sanchez's placement among NFL QBs.

Undeniably, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and P. Manning are all better (4). Romo, Roethlisberger, Rivers, E. Manning, and Vick are all better (now 9). Hasselbeck, Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, Freeman, and Schaub are all better (15). So we have 15 guys who are for sure better QBs than Mark Sanchez. He's at best an average starting QB.

But then consider some other guys. Are Fitzpatrick and Newton better? There are only limited returns and it would depend on your preferences, but I'd say Fitzpatrick at least has been better. What about Cutler? I'd say he's definitely been better. Sam Bradford? I'd certainly be more excited with Bradford as my QB than Sanchez.

Sanchez is at best average, at worst he's one of the bottom 10 QBs in the league. Honestly, I haven't seen anything from him that would suggest future promise or budding elite ability. He's had a great O-Line, great WRs, and a team that totally supports him, and he hasn't shown any signs that he's capable of turning it on and taking over a game. The longer the Jets try to make him work out for them, the longer they're going to be stuck in mediocrity.

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 12:01 pm

I disagree that pointing out Sanchez has good intangibles is making excuses because I never use that as an excuse to cover poor play. In fact, I state he makes bad decisions which are often the reasons he needs to show his leadership skills and bring the team back from the brink. I'll also say that I never once called him elite, nor would I.

So, I'm not really sure why you say saying he has really good intangibles. That doesn't preclude him playing badly.; Plenty of guys have had great intangibles and not succeeded.

The rest, I have no argument for. He's not played well on a consistent basis and he's definitely running out of rope.

He's certainly the least of the three QBs taken high in his draft class, though Freeman is backsliding a little this year.

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 11:03 am

Eli is not an elite QB. Not even close. You can't be an elite QB if you're TERRIBLE at post-snap reads.

And that's Eli's problem. If he makes the correct read pre-snap, and he's great at it, the play is usually a success.

But if he makes the wrong one and the D baits him, he gets confused and ends up forcing the ball anyway. Which leads to tons of ints.

As for the receivers, there IS a point in there. They are very good receivers, but they are dumb receivers. They don't know the playbook that well, they don't run great routes and they don't make great adjustements.

In an offense that asks a lot of the receivers, it can lead to costly mistakes.

If their offense can get the running game going, then they're a hard offense to stop. The reads became easier, their receivers can win one-on-ones, Eli can dissect an 8 man in the box.

But if the D is able to stop the run with 7 and confuse Eli, they're in for a long game.

My two cents...

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 12:12 pm

FWIW - My half assed QB list

Elite: Rodgers/Brady/Brees

Close but no cigar: Rivers

Cigar but not close: Schaub, Romo, Biggety Ben Roethlisberger

SOME GUYS

NOT ELITE: ELI MANNING

LOTS OF GUYS

Lots more guys
Can't see elite with binoculars: Sanchez.

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Michael Wells's picture

October 06, 2011 at 05:07 pm

schuab is nothing without AF(or tate if AF out) to set up run or AJ to pull down anything close. would also be in that "average" to lower range without. romo, LOL, thats just funny. i'd put about 5 other qbs in there instead of him. and big ben has only been successful because for years they were the cornerstone of running game and solid D. not to mention he has (arguably) one of the best receiving cores in the game today, wallace brown sanders and ward. his size makes up for their lack of skill at Oline, which i dont consider size as a criteria for eliteness. and everyone is prisoner of the moment with rodgers, i will give you he's been elite since basically last game of reg season last year. ELITE: P.Manning(hurt), T.Brady. THATS IT.(2) GREAT:Brees(borderline elite), Rodgers, Rivers, Eli, Vick, Ryan, Staffard.(9) GOOD:Ben, Romo, Schaub, Hasselback, Flacco, Freeman(15) ... top 15 is pretty set in stone in my opinion

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Andrew Garda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 06:09 pm

Ummm..WELL you're certainly entitled to your take but.... Rodgers has been incredibly good dating back to early last year at least..... Vick is a very gifted Qb but not on the level of Rovers, Rodgers or Brees (borderline?). Ryan is REALLY inconsistent and has not proven he is a great Qb by any stretch and in fact has folded in a few big games, Stafford has yet to be healthy an entire year (come to it, Vick either) and I can't say a guy is great when he can't stay healthy. I don't even know WHY hasselbeck is on your list unless you are 'captured by the moment' as he has been decent for years but never great.

Again - your list is your list but if you're going to lol at Romo, I reserve the right to chuckle at Ryan and Hass(!) on your top 15 QBs.

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 06:15 pm

Go back and re-watch what Rodgers did against your very own team, or any of the last 10 games, and say to me with a straight face that Rodgers isn't the best QB in the league.

To put Eli in the same realm as Rodgers is blalant homerism. Nothing you can ever come up with can justify it.

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Andrew Garda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 06:15 pm

Other critical question - are you talking THIS year or current players? Because it's a different list.

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 06:18 pm

No it's not. If you take into account anything OTHER than this year, I can put Montana on it as well.

If anyone arguing "QB status" lists past accomplishments and not current play, then we're arguing career. If we're arguing career, past QBs have to be in the mix.

Otherwise it migh as well be "elite QBs in the AFC West that played at least 20 games".

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 06:51 pm

Well if you are talking ALL TIME, yes Montana is in there. If you are talking CURRENT players, he can't be unless I missed a press conference.

Hasselbeck is playing extraordinarily well this year. He hasn't done it before. He might be playing at an elite level THIS year but he's not an elite QB overall.

They can be similar lists (and should be usually) but they aren't for sure the same list.

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 07:06 pm

My point is, if you're talking about being ELITE, it's NOW, not career. You can only analyse career after it's over.

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Jmac34's picture

October 06, 2011 at 12:43 pm

We are talking about the same Eli Manning that threw more picks then touchdowns last year, right? That guy is not "elite" and his td to pick ratio might have more to do with the teams he is facing then him being good

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Andrew Garda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 06:46 pm

He didn't throw more picks than TDs last year - 31TDs to 25 INTs.

Doesn't make him elite or anything. Just not as much an interceptionasorous.

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BlondiesJake's picture

October 06, 2011 at 07:02 pm

I agree with most of what Andrew says. But as much as I detest the person he is off the field, I find Ben Roethlisberger is being shortchanged on the field.

His stats are solid even though he's generally in an attempt-to-run first offense.

He can make all the throws and has made brilliant ones in the Super Bowl, including the unreal pitch and catch with Santonio Holmes to beat the Cardinals.

He's tough to bring down and extends so many plays because of it.

He's not as good as Brady or Rodgers, but he's definitely in that next class of QB, whatever you wish to call it.

Eli is in the 3rd tier of QBs, certainly not elite. And while we're on the subject of Mannings, Peyton is the most overrated QB of all time. Never has a guy done so much in the regular season against inferior competition and so little in the postseason against quality opponents. If it weren't for Rex Grossman, he would be like Marion and finish his career (which I think might be done) without a title.

Jake

P.S. I'm a Jets fan and Sanchez is a disaster, just like the offensive line.

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 07:22 pm

@packersrs - apparently we have reached the end of the replies on that piece of the comments so here goes:

I disagree that it's one or the other. i believe you can look at an overall current career of an active player vs one of a retired player, a combo of both OR one single season.

That's what makes the world go around though - our disagreement (or as Fred Durtz? would say, our disagreance) is what allows a great conversation like this one.

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PackersRS's picture

October 06, 2011 at 08:12 pm

Yeah, I disagree that you can do both when talking about if a guy is "elite" or not. I think, if you start analysing career, you're talking about "elite career", not "elite play".

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andrewgarda's picture

October 06, 2011 at 08:55 pm

And that's fine. Agree to disagree. I think you can study all stages of a career. The immediate present (now), the recent (career in progress) and the past (career ended).

Being good one season (or in this case, four games) does not make one an elite quarterback - it may lead to an elite season. But at the end of it, Matt Hasselbeck will still be an ok QB who had a great year. if Rodgers has a crap year, he'll still be a top shelf Qb who had a bad year.

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Austin Auch's picture

October 07, 2011 at 12:10 pm

With all this Elite talk I am very sad no one is talking about the "SEX CANNON"!

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andrewgarda's picture

October 07, 2011 at 12:21 pm

Well - there is ELITE and then Sexy Rexy.

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Austin Auch's picture

October 07, 2011 at 12:38 pm

By the the way Andrew/RS if you like Drews work you really got to read "Post Mortal" It is written in kind of a World War Z style and is way differnt from the stuff he does on Dead Spin and KSK. I am a big Drew homer if that has not shown yet =)

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