NFL Picks: Week Four
Aaron's picks for Week Four of the 2011 NFL Season.
By PackerAaron
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 34-14
Detroit at Dallas
Tony Romo is being asked to do way too much. Head coach and playcaller Jason Garrett turned the Cowboys around last year by rediscovering the running game and he needs to do the same this week, especially with Dez Bryant reportedly still hobbling. Unfortunately for Dallas, the way to beat Detroit is through the air and there's just no way the Cowboys offensive line will be able to hang with the Lions' defensive front. Detroit walks away from this one 4-0.
Carolina at Chicago
Cam Newton got his first win as a starting quarterback at home against the Jaguars. Now, he faces a much tougher test on the road in Chicago. The Bears are a tough matchup for the Panthers in that the best way to get them out of their Tampa 2 is to run the football directly at them - and the Panthers can't run a lick. While I think Greg Olsen will have a big day against his former team, the Bears should win going away.
Pittsburgh at Houston
How bad are things along the offensive line in Pittsburgh? The Steelers are an injury away from playing Jamon Meredith. Yikes. The Texans looked good early last week against the Saints and then wilted down the stretch - a recurring theme in both games and seasons under head coach Gary Kubiak. But at home against a beat up Steelers team, look for Houston to get back on track.
Tennessee at Cleveland
Matt Hasselbeck's signing with the Titans was hardly headline news this offseason - but it has quietly turned into the most important. Hasselbeck brings an extremely high level of play at the quarterback position to a Tennessee team that has been missing ever since Steve McNair left. The Browns have a promising young quarterback in Colt McCoy who is giving Browns fans hope for the first time in a long time. But "hope" doesn't win football games, good quarterback play does.
Buffalo at Cincinatti
The Bills are just a blast to watch. They are young, reckless and extremely talented on offense. Their defense has wild swings, but was opportunistic against Tom Brady and company last week. The Bengals are playing better ball than anyone thought they would, but they are overmatched against this Buffalo team.
Washington at St. Louis
The Redskins are who we thought they were and the Rams are just terrible. Alright, that's a bit much but the Rams are hard to watch on offense. On defense, they are at least active, but any team bringing Al Harris in on passing downs is in trouble. The Rams will benefit from the likely return of running back Stephen Jackson, but Washington is the pick.
Minnesota at Kansas City
The same script week after week - the Vikings defense comes out on fire, the offense does just enough to put some points on the board - and then everything collapses. Now Adrian Peterson is hurt and the coaches are fiddling with Donavan McNabb's mechanics - after he's been in the league how many years? Vikings fans have a sliver of hope because their team is playing one of the few teams worse than they are. And make no mistake - the Chiefs are terrible. But this is the week Kansas City notches its first win of the season.
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Now that Michael Vick is done crying about the officials and his hand isn't hurt nearly as bad as it was initially feared, Philadelphia fans can focus on more important matters - like the fact that the pressure on this Eagles team is being felt all the way up in the press box. The 49ers showed up last week - but the only way they win this one is if Ted Ginn Jr. takes two returns to the house. Which isn't going to happen.
New Orleans at Jacksonville
The Blaine Gabbert Era is under way - feel the excitement! Drew Brees and company had to empty their gun to take care of the Texans and there's a real danger of a let-down here against the Jaguars. But New Orleans has an across-the-board talent advantage and should win this walking away.
Atlanta at Seattle
The Seahawks screwed up Pete Carroll's master plan of landing the first overall pick next year by going out and beating the Cardinals last week and they could quite possibly do it again. The Falcons are completely lost on offense, with no real identity. But Atlanta bounces back against a scrappy Seattle team.
New York Giants at Arizona
Oh Arizona. To the Seahawks? THE SEAHAWKS? My goodness. Kevin Kolb doesn't look anything close to worth the money you're paying him. And Beanie Wells is hurt? I'm shocked - shocked I tell you. Meanwhile, New York? I'm sorry for all the mean things I said about you last week. I DID say the only chance you had was for your front four to take over - and they certainly did.
Denver at Green Bay
Elvis Dumervill and Champ Bailey should play - which should almost give the Broncos a punchers chance. Almost. Green Bay's young tackle Marshal Newhouse will have a tough assignment for his first start, trying to slow down Denver's Von Miller - but he should be up to the task. Packers in a rout.
Miami at San Diego
Philip Rivers is struggling. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates are hurting. And Norv Turner is still the coach. They are winning, but the Chargers aren't right. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are losing and there doesn't seem to be any help in sight, unless you could waiver wire pickup Steve Slaton (which we won't) The Dolphins are a mess and continue that look in San Diego on Sunday.
New England at Oakland
This should be an entertaining contest. Bill Belichick will look to take away Darren McFadden and make Jason Campbell beat his team. Of course, that's what the Jets tried to do and they got rolled over and beaten up. The Patriots' weakness on defense is against the pass, where they are ranked dead last in the league, but the Raiders don't have the players to take advantage. Meanwhile, Tom Brady will look to bounce back from a Favre-esque four interception game. He will play better and throw a ton, but look for Richard Seymour to disrupt the interior of New England's line. The Pats take a close one.
New York Jets at Baltimore
What a great match up. The Jets are stinging after getting the crap beaten out of them in Oakland. Now here comes Baltimore. This could get ugly early for New York as the Ravens will look to take advantage of Rex Ryan's blitzing ways by getting the ball to Ray Rice on all manner of screens and draws. Darrelle Revis will most likely draw Anquan Boldin in coverage, especially with Lee Evans on the bench due to injury. As for the Jets offense, look for the seemingly ageless Ray Lewis and quarterback terror Terrell Suggs to make Mark Sanchez miserable. Baltimore in a battle.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay
Curtis Painter gets his first NFL start. Tampa Bay by at least 10.
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Comments (13)
September 30, 2011 at 02:55 pm
I really get no sense of who you're picking in that Atlanta vs. Seattle game.
Seattle's defense is actually good against the run, look for Atlanta to look lost again with Ryan attempting to throw the ball 35+ times. I'm thinking about Seattle in an upset (if they can score).
PackerAaron
September 30, 2011 at 03:01 pm
Um - because I forgot to finish... *facepalm*
Thanks. Fixed.
October 01, 2011 at 03:36 am
Well, you keep thinking about it... Nobody ever lost any $$$ just thinking about an upset. But dude, the hawks offense is just flat out non existent. I know the dirty birds haven't looked good, and frankly, even going back to last year I don't know that they really are that good. I do know this though, Seattle has the twelfth man, they might need ti bring in a thirteenth and fourteenth for this game, their O is that pedestrian.
October 01, 2011 at 03:44 am
And your point about Seattle's run D is valid, but that's Atlanta's problem... They're so infatuated with the prospect of White and Jones stretching the field, they have lost their identity in Turner. I think after three weeks of watching film of their offensive failures the falcons get back to smash mouth, clock control offense. Dirty birds by double digits.
October 01, 2011 at 02:03 pm
The problem of Atlanta's passing game isn't their weapons...
What's the point of spreading the field and attacking vertically if your QB can't complete consistantly deep passes?
Plus, what were they thinking letting Dahl go? The strenght of their OL was that they were a cohesive unit.
The Falcons are not going to the playoffs if they cannot stabilish a strong running game.
But the Seahawks are just too awful.
October 02, 2011 at 09:18 pm
Hawks played inspired football and had a shot... who woulda thought? Not me evidendly.
September 30, 2011 at 04:02 pm
The Vikings no longer deserve to be called the Queens. They are the Choke-kings. I'd call them the Choke-Queens, but that might lead us to bad places.
September 30, 2011 at 04:06 pm
Same picks for me, almost.
Think the Cowboys will take it at home, Minnesota wins against the awful Chiefs, and for the upset special, a Buffalo letdown in Cincy.
October 01, 2011 at 03:30 am
Cowgirls, Cleveland and the Queens we differ on. Don't feel real strong about the girls given their injuries, but I'm looking for a gritty gutty performance at home.
GBP 4 LIFE
October 02, 2011 at 09:20 pm
2 of the last 4 seasons I won the season payout in my office pool for most correct picks over said season. The lockout really effected me, as I obviously don't know shit about picking games this season.
October 01, 2011 at 09:51 am
Aaron, how dare you make NFL picks when you obviously have never played in the NFL! Leave that to the former players who are all sooooo much smarter than us poor fans!
PackerAaron
October 01, 2011 at 04:10 pm
Lol.
October 01, 2011 at 05:32 pm
How dare you lol when you've never..wait.. nevermind.