NFL Network Analyst: Christian Watson Poised for Breakout Year
Watson has all the makings of a WR1. Will he live up to the hype in his second season?
By rex.sheild
Christian Watson’s career in the National Football League did not start off as promising as Watson and others would have hoped for. Drafted 34th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers, Watson underwent a minor knee procedure that caused him to miss valuable time during training camp. He also missed three games during the regular season due to a nagging hamstring injury. Yet, although Watson stumbled out of the gates – he only had 10 receptions for 88 yards through the first nine games – the North Dakota State product shined the brightest during the second half of the season.
His seven receiving touchdowns from Week 10 to Week 18 were tied for the most over that span with Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams, and his 523 receiving yards ranked second among rookie receivers (18th among all wide receivers). Watson was also one of two receivers last season to have at least one receiving touchdown in at least four-straight games. (Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett was the other, producing at least one receiving touchdown in six consecutive games.)
The way that Watson finished the 2022 campaign is one of the chief reasons why NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund tabbed him as one of the five second-year wide receivers to break out in 2023. “My favorite computer vision note on Watson: His hips were in the right direction to earn extra yards after the catch at the highest rate of any rookie after Week 10,” Frelund wrote. She also pointed out that, according to Pro Football Focus, Watson averaged 6.4 yards after catch (YAC) per reception, which ranked fourth among wide receivers with at least 40 receptions. Moreover, his contested catch rate of 75 percent ranked second. “Those two skill sets don't usually go together. Watson is a difference-maker at the catch point and after the catch,” Frelund opined.
Beyond what Frelund laid out, two other reasons why Watson could be in for a breakout season in 2023? His innate knowledge of the game and his ability to line up at multiple receiver spots.
“He is one of the most intelligent players that I’ve ever been around,” head coach Matt LaFleur said Monday. “The thing that is so unique about Christian is that you can line him up at the ‘Z’ and tell him the next play ... you got to go play ‘F’ or you got to go play ‘X,’ and he doesn’t blink. That’s tough for most guys to do. … It’s a great asset for us because it gives us a lot of flexibility in terms of who we want to get in the game with him.”
Watson said Monday that his positional versatility “adds a lot of value to my game. It opens up a lot of opportunities for me to create mismatches and make plays.”
Fans will be able to see Watson and his teammates in action Saturday night at the team’s Family Night. Practice begins at roughly 7:30 PM CST and will be broadcasted on the following channels throughout the state, according to Packers.com: WGBA-TV (Green Bay), WTMJ-TV (Milwaukee), WAOW-TV (Wausau), WKOW-TV (Madison), WXOW-TV (La Crosse), WQOW-TV (Eau Claire), KQDS-TV (Duluth-Superior), and WLUC-TV (Escanaba-Marquette).
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Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild).
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Comments (21)
Leatherhead
August 04, 2023 at 12:33 pm
IMO, Watson was a great draft pick. He's a 6'4" guy who is always going to be one of the fastest guys on the field who can do a standing backflip. How many people are there like that? If Jones/Dillon, Doubs, Musgrave, Reed, et. al., can keep moving the chains, it's going to make it very difficult for defenses to pay enough attention to Watson. He's lightning in a bottle. We all remember that game at Philadelphia where he caught the short ball in stride and shifted gears....it was obvious nobody was going to catch him.
How well he does is going to go a long way towards determining our season. If this guy catches like 15 TDs, and gives us 1000 yards, we'll have a very formidable offense, and I think he's good enough to do that if the other players on offense do their part.
As I've said before, I think the Packers best offensive package is going to include Watson, Doubs, and Musgrave because it forces the opponent to play nickel, which leaves 6 run defenders against 6 blockers and Jones/Dillon. It also makes you choose who you're going to single cover, and it's not going to be Watson, so that means that Doubs or Musgrave (or Reed) is going to draw single coverage quite a bit of the time, and that should be like taking candy from a baby.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
I wanted to share this.
"""The Falcons' quarterback depth chart now consists of Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke and Logan Woodside."""
Now, would you rather be getting ready to start the season with that, instead of what we have? I read stuff like this and it just puts a smile on my face. I'm going to be at the Atlanta game, so I have a little more interest in them than I normally would, and this really caught my attention.
Since'75
August 04, 2023 at 03:27 pm
Yea LH....
This is where we seperate.
I think more has to come from Christian Watson to prove he was a great draft pick.
He had a nice handful of games.
Rodgers was a great draft pick.
Jones was a great draft pick (5th round)
Jordy and Davonte were great draft picks.
Jaire Alexander was a great draft pick.
Bakhtiari was a great draft pick (4th round)
Donald Driver was a great draft pick (7th round)
It's a bit soon to be proclaiming Watson is a great draft pick, (i hope he is)
But way too soon, regardless whether he can do a standing backflip
Leatherhead
August 04, 2023 at 04:32 pm
I get your point, it's legit. Obviously, if Watson doesn't produce he wasn't a great pick, and all those guys you mentioned were guys who produced, although he produced more his rookie year than Jordy, Davonte, or Driver.
I remember seeing Randy Moss for the first time, and Watson's size and smooth speed remind me a lot of Moss.
So, OK, I'll retract the great draft pick. It's too soon. And, truly, without the trade up to get him, we could have taken Pickens AND Pierce, so that's a lot of production that we need out of Watson, and so it's doubly important that he stays on the field.
I do have to point out that he touched the ball 48 times last year and scored 9 TDs. That's pretty good.
Coldworld
August 04, 2023 at 06:10 pm
Donald Driver was a player who was nothing but a STer till his 4th year. He was a freak athlete who was very raw. So was Watson, well, almost as raw. The fact that Watson has made an impact already: there’s no doubt that defenses key on him or that he can do damage. What he now needs is to perfect his hands technique and route running skills. If he can, then he has all the size and athleticism to be a star. For where he was picked, that much this early isn’t bad. Now we see if he can harness his full potential. If he has Driver’s desire and determination then he might be an all time great pick if he stays healthy.
Leatherhead
August 04, 2023 at 06:24 pm
I think the thing which would help Watson the most would be a guy lined up on the other side that the defense had to focus on so that Watson might get a chance. Personally, I'd expect him to be doubled from the beginning, but he's still going to have to contribute some receptions and first downs against double coverage.
That's going to mean other people are going to have consistent 1 on1 situations, and if we can't capitalize on that, then defenses won't stop doubling Watson. If we can, then people will have to take more chances with Watson to stop something else and he'll see more opportunity.
PhantomII
August 05, 2023 at 09:36 am
That's the best part LH....Doubs is looking like a great possession receiver and Reed like the perfect Slot WR. IF only we can get a little bigger and a little more angry on the OL, our run game could be the spot that brings all things into harmony. I'm really excited with our ENTIRE WR group and TE group...and RB's as possible outlets in the pass game. I have great expectations of the run and pass game FINALLY be a pick your poison decision by Defenses. We have players at every spot to hurt you. I also like Toure and a few others to filter in once the injury bug hits. If they double Watson, Love has been in the system long enough and come game time will know his players and the play call well enough to exploit the weakness their defense dictates... GPG
Leatherhead
August 05, 2023 at 11:11 am
That's kind of what I've been thinking, too. The camp reports make me think that Doubs is going to help us move the chains, and in order to stop Love and Doubs from playing catch they start making adjustments in their secondary and that creates an opportunity for somebody else.
I know Love can throw strikes. If the offensive line gives him time, I think our passing game will be plenty good enough for us to win.
Since'75
August 06, 2023 at 07:16 pm
LH.....There is one factor why Watson got more targets than the receivers i listed, even though he was a rookie, he was a featured receiver next to Lazard.
Usually rookie receivers don't get those kind of targets because they have to earn them over veteran productive receivers, which the Packers ran out of last season.
One other thing LH, i also like (i'm optimistic) Watson , but i have to see more. Production and consistency are what makes the great ones, great. I'm sure we'd agree on that.
*
CW...I don't care if Donald Driver was the towel boy or he cleaned the toilets for 4 years, he leads the Packers ALL TIME in receiving yards and he was a freaking 7th round draft pick.
That to me is a "great draft pick".
WOW
Seriously...stop being such a dweeb.
*NOTE: Giving a thumbs down with no reply, is still being a dweeb. See if you can work on that.
Thank you for understanding.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 04, 2023 at 05:15 pm
LH,
life is good as a Packer fan! We have talent galore, we have national press coverage talking about how much GBP suck IF JL10 flops, we have knowledgeable contributions in comments here, and we have some really good writers contributing regularly. We also have reports of TV coming in from a variety of sources, none of whom saw what I saw because SO much happens all at once in practice :)
I'll still put #9's contribution this year more on JL10 and the O line, figuring #9 himself is less of a variable but of course he's not a known factor either. Our depth at WR is STACKED! I still can't make much sense out of our depth in the trenches after attending two practices, and I'll probably be able to get to some more. The weather is cooperating with storms this week while the team is out of State, maybe we'll have some sure to be dry weather as well as a bit cooler when they come back 8/17. Some years the worst of the heat has broken by then.
I still say this season should be interesting, full of surprises, and FUN! If MM interferes with JL10 being given a chance for more than one year? Unless he absolutely stinks up the place (which I don't believe will happen) he needs to be kept at bay.
GPG! 11 wins? 6 wins? I think that's a reasonable range and I'm all in either way. By next draft we'll know what we need and hopefully it's so little that Gutey can trade up to get best in class. By 2025 maybe we can even spring for a top tier FA?
Leatherhead
August 04, 2023 at 06:09 pm
LIfe is good, SST You make a good point about Watson's performance being less of a variable than the performance of the Oline and Love.(who depends on the Oline.)
We're going to start the season 4-0, and as soon as we've finished thrashing Detroit the talking heads are going to be going crazy for Love and the Packers.
Since'75
August 06, 2023 at 07:32 pm
@SicSemper....."If MM interferes with JL10 being given a chance for more than one year?"
Love has 2 years fully guaranteed remaining, this is his 4th season on his rookie deal and he signed a 1 year 13 million guaranteed for 2025.
mnbadger
August 04, 2023 at 02:11 pm
It we stay healthy, we should be formidable.
I have to admit that I didn't have faith in CWat coming out of NDSU.
Tall, fast and skinny with sporadic hands isn't what I thought was the recipe for a long productive career at this level.
I'll check back in 10 years on his career, but man I hope/expect he balls out this year.
Can't wait to see the Saturday's activities. Lot's of shiny new toys, polished skills and motivated rear ends.
GPG!
SicSemperTyrannis
August 04, 2023 at 05:17 pm
The motivation is palpable. I haven't attended TC before but I expect this season is just different. I see no one resting on their laurels; veterans are hungry, rookies are hungry, and #25 Nixon leads the pack in being hungry!
This looks really good to me :)
PhantomII
August 05, 2023 at 12:19 pm
Check out "The freak show" from (Bottom Line View) under Christian Watson on (Youtube). It made a believer out of me. This kid is said to be one of the smartest players from ML. This kid is gonna be great when he has it all figured out...If he can stay on the field. HE was outshining everyone at the senior bowl also, and nobody could cover him. Doubs is really melding with Love also. Reed and Toure are also good. We are gonna have a problem of who to re-sign in a few years...That means our WR's will be dominant. We are at an exceptional point...We have weapons at RB and WR and possibly TE. Good times ahead. Next season this offense will be unstoppable. If our OL gets a little bigger and stronger we will be able to run it or throw it to the Super Bowl and teams like the Bucs and SF with their stout Defenses will not be able to stop it. When these teams made us 1 dimensional...We did not have the WR horses to go toe to toe with them....Now we do.
splitpea1
August 04, 2023 at 03:25 pm
Where we want to see growth from both Watson and Doubs is vs. press coverage. Watson can make a big impact in other ways, but improvement here would be a big enhancement. D. Adams was a master at it, so there should be no shortage of studying material.
WestCoastPackerBacker
August 04, 2023 at 04:52 pm
Adams became a master at playing vs press coverage. He worked hard to develop that and so can these guys.
jannesbjornson
August 04, 2023 at 11:05 pm
Just watched Jerry Rice's tapes and emulated the master..
Oppy
August 04, 2023 at 11:23 pm
He definitely built off of the same footwork concepts, but put Adams' film side by side with Rice's tape and compare their hop steps and subsequent release techniques.. Adams is in a whole different stratosphere. His footwork/release is more crisp, sudden, and his feints and variations wildly outmatch the work that Rice put on film for the ages.
That's not to take anything away from Rice. He's an all-time great, and Adams clearly modeled a lot of his LOS game off of Rice. But Adams took that example and greatly expanded on it - in terms of both execution and depth of the toolset.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 04, 2023 at 05:27 pm
#17 built a career based on AR12 threading the needle. I've seen JL10 try that in practice, it's never gone well. That particular stunt should be removed from the playbook, IMHO. I want to see him him throw to OPEN WRs only, and if there aren't any? The dink and dunk Jimmy G kind of game management should be FINE. RB and TE can do SERIOUS damage!!
So many have said #28 has to produce x amount of yards, same with #9 and others. I say bs to ALL that. Situational football rules! #28 is our 3rd and short irresistible force. Does he have a good 3rd down conversion rate? If yes, I simply do not care if his yards per carry is 1.5 or his season total is 350. If his third down conversion rate is good, HE is good! You simply would not use #33 in the same situations. He might have a yards per attempt of 8+, he's a VERY different tool, best used for a VERY different job.
MLF should DEFY opponents to stop this offense :)
Ferrari-Driver
August 04, 2023 at 09:16 pm
Watson looks good so far and reminds me of a former Packer wide receiver, James Lofton, who is tall fast and a big play receiver who is now in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Lofton had a personal conduct issue and was traded, so he didn't have a chance to finish his career in Green Bay, but the years he was here that Lynn Dickey to James Lofton combination was spectacular to watch. I wonder if anyone here is old enough to remember that snowy game in Denver many years ago when the two of them put on quite a show.
croatpackfan
August 05, 2023 at 07:28 am
"Will he live up to the hype in his second season?"
That is great question. Fact is that there is no player who can win by himself. Watson needs his team mates to make him possible to shine and lead by his example. What is important, in MHO he will have support from his team mates. I hope he will shine and help the team to surprise all.
GO, PACK GO!