Nelson's Lofty Expectations for 2016

With his recovery back on track, what should we expect from a rejuvenated Jordy Nelson?

Something as deflating as tearing your anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is something even opposing rival players in the NFL don't wish on each other. The strenuous path to recovery and the onslaught of roadblocks that secure an athlete's ultimate goal to getting back on the field is not only disheartening for the player, but could leave his team reeling as well.

That's the exact fate that struck the Packers in 2015 when wide receiver Jordy Nelson went down in a preseason contest in Pittsburgh. Although many things went wrong for the Packers in the regular season and can't all be attributed to the loss of Nelson, that definitely was a paramount ingredient to the stew of weekly frustration the Packers faced on offense.

Nelson is currently ahead-of-schedule with his recovery and as of now, there haven't been any doubts that he'll be fully participating when the Packers open up training camp next week. But after the first week of training camp, after the five preseason games and after Green Bay makes its trip into a scorching Downton Jacksonville to open their season against the Jaguars; what are the expectations for Nelson and what should they be?

It isn't a secret - fans are excited for Nelson's return. So excited, some may forget the fact that he tore his ACL and the position he plays requires constant foot-planting and quick manuevering to shake off defenders. He isn't going to have a 1,500-yard season and come out of the fences swinging. However, the physical phase Nelson faced in his rehabilitation is essentially over. Now, remains the mental aspect.

After an injury such as an ACL tear, it may take some time for a player to get back into the rhythm they were accustomed to but mentally, they will have brief stints of doubt in the back of their minds. A slight hint of hesitation before making a cut or planting into that injured leg can be easy-picking for defenses. That split-second could be the difference between an easy slant for a first down or a cornerback jumping the route for an interception.

With Aaron Rodgers, the timing between he and his favorite target is down pat, so that shouldn't be a factor. Not to mention training camp offers all sorts of opportunities for Nelson to help ease the fear of aggravating that right knee. Patience has been, and will continue to be crucial for Nelson.

"You can get your muscle back, but the ligament still has to go through a maturation process." said notorious orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews. "They (players) don't understand all that, but you just keep telling them you can't bargain with Mother Nature. You can push Mother Nature, but you can't bargain with Mother Nature and turn it around to suit your needs."

The good news for the expectations set on Nelson and his recovery is that players have been notorious for playing at a higher level post-injury. Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Adrian Peterson - even the Packers' own Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga was ranked as the 48th-best tackle in 2012 by Pro Football Focus, missed all of 2013 and in 2014, jumped to 23rd-best.

Getting back into form would be ideal for Nelson. Circa 2011.

While one doctor gave Nelson a 60-to-80 percent chance of returning to his former self on the field, he'll still be someone defensive coordinators have to gameplan for. A revitalized deep threat in Nelson opens up everything underneath for Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and the rest of the hungry receiving corps. Add in the addition and vertical threat of tight end Jared Cook and the Packers may just return to the explosive form defenses are so used to seeing.

It's amazing the difference one player makes.

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Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].

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Comments (27)

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NickPerry's picture

July 21, 2016 at 07:44 am

I think Nelson comes back without issue and is as good as ever. He's one of the best WR's in the NFL because he worked at his craft to become one of the best. He's disciplined enough to know he needs to go at it gradually. If there is a silver lining in this injury it was that he suffered it early last season. When the regular season rolls around it will be 13 months since the injury and he'll have been through OTA's (Mentally) TC, and 5 preseason games. The Nelson and Rodgers show will take shape in practice and by Week 1 in Jacksonville it will be like he was never gone. I can't remember a season I was more excited for it to start, well at least since last season. This is going to be great!!

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

July 21, 2016 at 08:01 am

That's what I'm hoping for. As much of a realist as I am, he has all of the tools he needs to get himself back into form, it's just a matter of whether or not that knee will let him. I'm hoping for our sake and for Jordy's sake he picks up right where he left off without any hassle.

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dobber's picture

July 21, 2016 at 08:35 am

They always say that trust is the big issue, especially for receivers and runners. They have to learn to trust the knee again in game situations. He needs to get enough preseason snaps to get there. With almost a full year from surgery to Jacksonville and -- by all accounts -- an injury that was unremarkable aside from the tear, he should be fully rehabbed in terms of strength. Flexibility, agility and speed will be the issue and we won't know about that until he's under the gun.

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TarynsEyes's picture

July 21, 2016 at 09:06 am

I'm not as worried about the level of Nelsons play even if not back to normal for a few games in but the level of growth of the others.
Is Montgomery fully healthy, will Adams remain slumped, is Abberderis still glass, has Janis gained the infamous trust, will Cobb be Cobb, will Cook be what is hoped.
Any combination of poor play with these guys will hurt more than Nelsons whether 100% or not.

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

July 21, 2016 at 09:29 am

Fair. Look at it this way:

You can have no Nelson and an underperforming WR corps, ultimately resulting in complete, overwhelming failure offensively.

Or you can have an underperforming WR corps (which probably won't even happen) WITH Nelson in the mix. I'll take the latter. Nelson runs that whole show.

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Bedrock's picture

July 21, 2016 at 09:39 am

Even if Nelson isn't 100%, he'll find ways to contribute. His body control at the sidelines is unparalleled. His ability to make a catch while covered will serve him well too. He may not be the Jordy of old, which would really suck. But an 80% version will pay huge dividends.

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dobber's picture

July 21, 2016 at 10:34 am

A couple things...

" His body control at the sidelines is unparalleled."

IMO this will allow Nelson, even if he has diminished speed and/or agility, to still be Nelson to some degree. This is what will also help to open the underneath and middle of the field for his teammates. So I'm not terribly concerned about the time it will take him to get back up to whatever speed he's going to get back to...

" But an 80% version will pay huge dividends."

80% is a loooong way to slide in terms of physical attributes.

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Bedrock's picture

July 21, 2016 at 10:48 am

It's a metaphor

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Ibleedgreenmore's picture

July 21, 2016 at 02:47 pm

Even with Nelson half of what he was he still will distract defenders. He is just to good to not draw a defender or two.

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Tundraboy's picture

July 21, 2016 at 12:39 pm

Going into last season, when Jordy went down, it was the worst news possible short of Rodgers being out. I felt we had no chance to win the SB. Little did I know how tough the season would be. I'm just hoping that is all in the past and that he is healthy for the whole season and post season. How good he will be is secondary to that. Other than Aaron he is critical to our identity IMO. I also hope Montgomery is healthy, as is Cook, and that Janis makes strides to take some of the burden off as well.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 21, 2016 at 10:14 am

I'm hoping the rest of the injured offensive weapons are completely healthy as well. Their play just might help Nelson more than he can help them (or at least for the first half of the season or so).

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dobber's picture

July 21, 2016 at 10:38 am

I think we were all holding out some hope that the off-season hype surrounding Adams would allow him to shoulder some of the load, and that Cobb could step up and still be a force with Adams playing that outside role. At the time, I don't think we anticipated the magnitude of the let-down at WR. Nobody anticipated Abby falling on his tail and missing most of camp with a concussion, or Cobb messing up his shoulder, or Montgomery -- who seemed to be integrating nicely -- being lost for the year. Jones came in and was who he was, but he's not the threat that Nelson was. I know Cow will have a field day with the "injury excuses" at WR, but this was a MASH unit for virtually the whole year. I'm not sure we recognized how bad until week 3 or 4.

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Bedrock's picture

July 21, 2016 at 10:51 am

I think it was interesting that it took that long before NFL teams recognized how bad it was.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 21, 2016 at 10:59 am

"but this was a MASH unit for virtually the whole year."

Exactly why there's such high expectations for this season (if healthy), of course. I know I'm expecting record breaking numbers from Rodgers, three 1-thousand yard receivers and Lacy topping his rookie year (rushing) and 2nd year (receiving). Might be asking too much, but we've done some great things with less talent before.

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ZacharyJacobson's picture

July 21, 2016 at 11:03 am

"I'm not sure we recognized how bad until week 3 or 4."

This. A lot of people think the offense just stuttered out of the blue after a 6-0 start. No, the problems were there all season. Rodgers just played incredible football for the first six weeks and masked a lot of those problems. Nobody saw the slow WRs, nobody saw the lack of separation. QB1 could only mask those flaws for so long, and it speaks a lot about his ability.

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marpag1's picture

July 21, 2016 at 02:20 pm

You have an extremely different recollection than I do. The Packer offense was never up to par right from the gun, and dang near EVERYBODY saw it, even in the first six weeks.

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Bedrock's picture

July 21, 2016 at 02:25 pm

Teams didn't play them like they were different until a few weeks in. San Fran, I think. NFL teams is so dumb (said in my best Mater voice). It was the threat of being the same that kept teams honest for so long.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 21, 2016 at 02:27 pm

@Marpag That's because winning silences all. I'm sure we all had those "the Pack have to clean this up" whispers/thoughts in the first 6 weeks, but that quickly turned to Panic mode by week 9.

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Tundraboy's picture

July 22, 2016 at 08:24 am

Yes we did. Walking on eggshells all year.

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RCPackerFan's picture

July 21, 2016 at 01:04 pm

I expect Nelson to be himself. But I don't expect him to put up the huge numbers he put up in 2014. With the young talent another year in the system I think we will start seeing more players being used, which will spread the ball around more.

Nelson I think will lead the team in yards, and will be very productive though.

It might take a few games for Nelson to be productive numbers wise, but to start the year his presence will be felt. Coordinators will have to adjust their game plans to stop Nelson. So while he may not have productive numbers right away I do think he will make a huge impact.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

July 22, 2016 at 07:39 am

I think Nelson will be productive starting in game 1. Until Adams, Monty, Abby, Janis or Davis proves a few things, it will be the Nelson-Cobb-Cook show.

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Bearmeat's picture

July 21, 2016 at 01:15 pm

That 60-80% stat about returning to his former self from the doctor (admittedly not the one who worked on Nelson) is rather scary.

I had been under the assumption that Nelson would be his former self completely. This does tamp down on the hope of another Lombardi somewhat... :(

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dobber's picture

July 21, 2016 at 02:06 pm

I'm not too bad with that. Sure his age isn't necessarily in his favor, but it's not like he's 35. But 3-4 out of 5 under those conditions return to at least their pre-injury form? Knowing something about his work ethic and how he approaches his job, those odds are still in his favor.

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Tundraboy's picture

July 23, 2016 at 01:38 pm

Yes, if anyone can make it all the way back its Jordy. Always in shape, hard worker....

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4thand1's picture

July 21, 2016 at 04:46 pm

Man, you people worry too much. It's another year. Hell teams go from worst to first from one season to the next, and this team has everything in place on offense. Mark my words, they will score at will.

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PETER MAIZ's picture

July 21, 2016 at 08:19 pm

I totally agree with Zachary. Wide receivers have an especially hard time to return to full form. The younger ones have a better chance, per the statistics involved. But I just don't trust a Green Bay without Jordy, at this time. Look what happened in 2015. No cheesehead or otherwise Packer admirer wants to see a 2016 season like the disaster of 2015.

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Lphill's picture

July 22, 2016 at 07:01 am

I think Jordy puts up better numbers than any Viking receiver , RELAX !

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