Nagler's Never Right: Super Bowl 50

Aaron's pick for Super Bowl 50 

Two weeks ago: 1-1

Season: 164-102

Carolina vs Denver

Just wanted to take a second to thank you all for following along with my picks this year. Believe it or not, this is the first year I actually picked every game, every week for the whole year. Feels good to be at the end, but I'm already sad that the season's over after today. 

Look forward to writing you all from the Combine in a few weeks as the Packers start to gear up for 2016. 

Cheers. 

 

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Comments (43)

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Denver's picture

February 07, 2016 at 03:11 pm

Going with Panthers in a slobberknocker, 16-14

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FITZCORE1252's picture

February 07, 2016 at 03:50 pm

38-16 Carolina

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mrtundra's picture

February 07, 2016 at 03:52 pm

I don't care what the odds are, I just cannot bet against Peyton Manning in a big game. Denver 21 Carolina 17.

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mrtundra's picture

February 07, 2016 at 09:08 pm

How funny am I now. 24-10 Denver with 3:08 left in the game.

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mrtundra's picture

February 07, 2016 at 09:14 pm

How funny am I now? 24-10 Denver with less than 2 minutes to go.

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TommyG's picture

February 08, 2016 at 01:15 pm

That win was all Denver defense and special teams. The offense only scored 8 points!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 07, 2016 at 11:55 pm

I usually ignore you, but can't gloss over this comment. It is the crux of the argument regarding TT, isn't it?

I don't think Denver's cap troubles are as bad as some make them out to be. Are the Broncos a contender if they keep their defense together, cut Manning (saving $19 million in cap space) and replace him with Tolzien?

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TommyG's picture

February 07, 2016 at 11:55 pm

Cow, I thought cam was the future QB type of the NFL. What happened? He was gasping for air at the end of the first half! He overthrew 10 passes. Wasn't he supposed to be unbeatable just like Kaep? Or was it Wilson that was unbeatable? Oh wait, maybe it was Vick who revolutionized and changed the sport forever. Or maybe, just maybe, a smash mouth defense can upend a run around QB regardless of his size. Looks like it played out just that way tonight. Carolina ran the same 6 plays they ran all season. Denver brought pressure the likes of which they hadn't seen. Free agency no doubt played a part in this win. Yes, I wish we had ware and a good TE. When manning retires Denver will not suck. They won't suck because they have a team built already. They have a system into which they can insert their next QB.

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TommyG's picture

February 08, 2016 at 01:21 pm

That is the same rhetoric people had for Kaep, Vick, Tebow, Manziel, Winston, RGIII, et al. The notion that a run around QB with accuracy issues is the future of the NFL is bunk. Carolina spent this year to win a super bowl; so did Denver. Denver won and Carolina did not. When a team blows it's cap to win then they had better do so. Just like in 9ers land, the Carolina window starts to close. They will be good next year. They might even win a Super Bowl. But the talent will start to dwindle after that. Vets look for more money, others get older, some sign monster contracts that gut the team's cap (AR and CMIII in our case). These aren't negatives. It is how football works under a cap.

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TommyG's picture

February 08, 2016 at 01:35 pm

Denver reminds me a lot of Baltimore during their last trip to the super bowl. A team can win a super bowl with a great defense. Granted, Baltimore was helped out by unbelievable flaco play as well. Anyway, my point is that a great defense can win A super bowl. To do so twice is probably too much to ask.

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Oppy's picture

February 09, 2016 at 05:42 pm

For every GM who leans heavy on FA to build his team and wins a title, there's 20 teams who use the same tactic and fail miserably.

Every season, we see many teams dip deep into the FA pool, only to come out the other end victimized, overpaying for talent that didn't get them over the hump.

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Lphill's picture

February 07, 2016 at 06:47 pm

Leave it to COW to spew hate against the Packers organization On Super Bowl Sunday. Pure Asshole .

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Ima fubar's picture

February 07, 2016 at 10:55 pm

The real shame is both Mathews and Rogers will play out the best years left with a mediocre supporting cast. No more Superbowl for the guys. They had seen the glory go by.

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mrtundra's picture

February 08, 2016 at 08:52 am

Since your team is either the bears or the vikings, I have to agree that you won't see them in the Super Bowl in the foreseeable future.

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GVPacker's picture

February 07, 2016 at 09:14 pm

Looks like "The Jerk" Cam Newton is a Mere Mortal. No sign of Superman at Super Bowl 50. Thank Goodness!

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cinpackback's picture

February 07, 2016 at 10:24 pm

Denver reminded me of our Packers this past season - good defense but inadequate offence. Lucky for Denver Cam Newton's inexperience allowed them to squeak out a win. Hopefully we'll return the trophy to its rightful home next year.

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Lphill's picture

February 07, 2016 at 10:48 pm

Sorry Cow we will see Aaron Rodgers win again but maybe that's not what you want. Do us all a favor and go away for good .

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TommyG's picture

February 08, 2016 at 01:31 pm

This may be accurate however I will reserve that judgement until week 8 of the coming season.

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Ima fubar's picture

February 07, 2016 at 10:51 pm

As I said to my packer fan wife, the Denver gm won the Superbowl acquiring ware, talib and others to come in and be the missing links needed. No there is no daft and develop on the broncos, just frqent super bowl appearances the packers will never see with tight ass Ted at the helm. You refuse o helpmthe team inmfree agency, and not too ng old bums, you miss opportunities.

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zeke's picture

February 08, 2016 at 02:00 am

It's the Vikings that have the "daft and develop" philosophy. What does your imaginary wife think?

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TommyG's picture

February 07, 2016 at 11:48 pm

That heavy blitz scheme that Wade unleashed on our packers seemed to be just the ticket for the panthers as well. Cam helped by air balling no less than 10 completable passes. Manning did nothing special and was really just along for the ride. This game goes to that Denver d lead by old wade Phillips.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 08, 2016 at 12:11 am

I think I would take all 8 of the preferred starting LBs on Denver and Carolina over any LB we have. The only question mark is CM3. I have to imagine what CM3 might look like with other LBs he could depend upon to handle their assignments well and another OLB who is really, really good.

I wouldn't take any of Carolina's WRs. Cotchery dropped passes for at least two big gains. Ginn looked contact shy and complementary only. Funchess and Brown looked like #3 WRs. I'd take Olsen, though.

I saw Norman drop a desperately needed interception. I wonder if Carolina's blog will blame him for the loss?

Cam missed a few passes, but then, I watched AR miss more throws this year than normal, which is to say occasionally instead of hardly ever missing an open receiver. Newton's decision not to dive on a loose ball in the super bowl, down 6 with 5 minutes to go could easily come to epitomize him in the minds of some folks. It was inexplicable (and indefensible) to me. He still managed to look better than Peyton.

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Razer's picture

February 08, 2016 at 10:15 am

It became evident that as the game wore on, Cam the entertainer, was having trouble with a real defense and the guts of real football. Cam recoiling from recovering that fumble with the game on the line is inexcusable.

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Tundraboy's picture

February 08, 2016 at 11:02 am

Yes where was Superman on that fumble? Wow just wow.

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Hematite's picture

February 08, 2016 at 05:47 am

I enjoyed watching Super Scam rolling around on the ground like a child having a temper tantrum.
I loved watching Super Scam run away from his fumble like he feared for his life.
Then he cemented the deal by walking out of his post game presser.
What a coward!.
Congratulations Denver Broncos!

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egbertsouse's picture

February 08, 2016 at 07:55 am

Did anybody see sCam throw his major tantrum when he didn't get the roughing the passer call? He laid on the ground and pounded his hands. I have a 10 yr old grandson who acts more mature than that. And then he goes into major pout-mode during the presser. Priceless1! Way to show the kids how to behave, sCam.

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mrtundra's picture

February 08, 2016 at 08:48 am

Even Simms said it was not roughing the passer as Scam was out of the pocket.

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

February 08, 2016 at 09:33 am

Picked Denver to win this game close. It was a rather simple formula that went as I suspected. Denver was going to be able to lock down on Olsen (4 for 41) due to their superior secondary play. Pass rush was important but that fact that they got interior push was more crucial. Predicted Phillips would run plenty of man and man free with a lurk/spy and a little bit of Cover 3. Denver sat in single high looks most of the game. Crucial drops by the Carolina receivers could have changed the complexion of this game. Newton is not a good passing QB against man, although I was impressed with the few throws he made that were dropped. The problem was he wasn't consistent enough. Against the 3 deep zone he was more effective.

On a final note: I was told that you don't fire a coach who has gotten his team to the playoffs 7 consecutive years and has numerous division titles. I was also informed by a poster that they would "eat their hat" if Kubiak guided the Broncos to a championship this year. I have the salt and pepper ready. Admittedly, I didn't think Denver would make it to the title fight but the fact they made it proves that you can fire a coach who wins 4 straight division titles and goes 12-4 the year before, losing in the divisional round. Denver is the same team they were the previous season under Fox. Same personnel. Not one player different that anyone can say was the difference maker. The difference maker was Kubiak. Elway is the real MVP. Firing a coach who had the success in the W/L column isn't easy because, naturally, people think you can't do better. You can. Vince Lombardi wasn't a great coach because he knew Xs and Os better than everyone else. He knew how to motivate talent that was already in place. Remember, Lombardi didn't draft the majority of the players who became the dynasty we now know. Jack Vainisi was responsible for those drafts, especially the 1958 draft. There are good X and O coaches and there are certainly bad X and O coaches but their are far fewer of good/bad in that realm than there are coaches who can motivate talent. Elway fired Fox for this reason. The team was soft and unprepared in the playoffs. The minute adversity hit, they crumbled. Not under Kubiak.

The Packers have enough talent to get to the Super Bowl. They had it this year. Baring an injury to #12, McCarthy needs to get the team to the Super Bowl in 2016. No excuses. No more, "we lost our #1 receiver." Carolina lost there's and made it. No more "our OL isn't very good." I submit Carolina and Denver. No more "our Clay needs to get back outside and we need better inside linebackers" Green Bay was 7th in the league in sacks this year. That's plenty fine. No more, "we need a dynamic TE like Vernon Davis or at least an Owen Daniels type TE." The Packers won a Super Bowl with Quarless, Lee and Crabtree. Daniels was so bad that Davis was brought in to Denver. Anyone hear his name in the pre-game intros.? By the way....did Olsen and Daniels do last night? Nothing. So stop it. Thompson isn't perfect but these calls for him to get players like Foster is ridiculous. He wasn't going to be the difference in getting to the Super Bowl. If you haven't checked the stats, Jake Ryan played just as well, if not better, statistically than Foster so stop banging that drum. In case any of you have forgotten.....Thompson does dip in to the waiver and free agent pool. Remember Woodson? Peppers is pretty impactful at his age. It just seems like many of you want Thompson to get impact players at every position and the only way to do it is through free agency. That fails more often than not. Chuck Noll famously said, "you don't build through the waiver wire." All great teams do this. For each Woodson there are far more Marquad Manuels. It's far more likely that Mason Foster turns out to be Hardy Nickerson. But to appease the "Ted needs to get that guy" crowd, please tell me exactly WHO is going to be that difference maker that pushes the Packers over the top? Who is that ILB that is the next coming of Luke Keuchley that isn't going to break the bank? Is it Marshall or Treviathan? Mabye. Are they in Keuchley's league? Doubtful. How much are they going to cost? Who does Green Bay part ways with to get one of these guys? Who restructures their contract to make it work? It's not just as simple as saying "Ted sucks because he doesn't get these guys." There are a lot of moving parts to address. Thompson has provided the pieces for the Packers to win championships and get there several times over. Elway saw Fox wasting a HOF QB. Thompson might be witnessing the same.

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D.D.Driver's picture

February 08, 2016 at 09:47 am

TL;DR. The funny part of extolling Kubiac's brilliance is that Kubes won a SB playing the Martiest version of Martyball that anyone ever Martied. Even Marty himself was like "what the Marty, Kubes?"

But I guess Kubes is a genius because he won playing Martyball. Must be that he has the secret sauce that can motivate his players to win a game of Martyball. That's logical.

In sum: MARTYBALL!!!

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TommyG's picture

February 08, 2016 at 01:40 pm

You might need to brush up on the difference between martyball and what Denver trotted out this season.

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D.D.Driver's picture

February 08, 2016 at 06:29 pm

Up by six points with 4 minutes left. Ran the ball three times in a row for 1 yard total. Last January, when McCarthy was up by 12 point a similar amount of time left and ran the ball three times. McCarthy was an idiot playing MARTYBALL!!! Kubes is a genius. Go figure.

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Oppy's picture

February 09, 2016 at 05:26 pm

Someone out there "Disklikes" it when you speak flat out TRUTH.

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

February 09, 2016 at 07:25 pm

It would help to know what Martyball actually is before making a comparison.

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

February 09, 2016 at 07:15 pm

Martyball isn't just running the ball. It's about conservative play calling.....predictability based on personnel and formation. The difference between the NFCC last year and Super Bowl 50 is night and day. The Packers were in 22 Personnel on 3 successive plays. McCarthy telegraphed run and the Packers subsequently ran in to 9 and 10 man fronts that not even Jim Brown could have been successful against. Denver did not have those personnel groupings and as a result didn't face similar stacked boxes. They could have easily passed in those situations and chose not too. They had more success running than the Packers did in that time situation. The other noticeable difference between both situations was that the Packers regained possession by forcing a turnover, a momentum swinging play, and chose not to go for the knockout punch. Huge difference. Furthermore, to prove that Schottenheimer was not just about running, I present you Bernie Kosar, who threw 60 plus passes against the Jets in 1984. Marty also had Montana in KC and let him throw the ball too. If you're suggesting Peyton Manning was the best choice to move the ball in that situation then you are a fool and weren't paying attention to the game. If you are suggesting Eddie Lacy was the best option against 10 man fronts instead of Aaron Rodgers throwing to Nelson, Cobb, or Adams last year on at least 1 of the plays in the series then you clearly know very little about the nuances of football.

When you actually figure out what Martyball really is then get back to me. Thanks for playing though.

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Oppy's picture

February 10, 2016 at 08:46 am

There was a time you were a respected voice around here that loved to share your insight and inform... Lately, you've been bitter and nasty at times, seemingly unprovoked, like in the last (unnecessary) paragraph of this post.

What happened?

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Tundraboy's picture

February 08, 2016 at 11:12 am

Hard to argue with your reasoning. I fear that MMs last and best shot was 2014. I do not see him changing his approach but I sure as hell hope so. If not this may be his last year.

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Oppy's picture

February 09, 2016 at 05:39 pm

" I was told that you don't fire a coach who has gotten his team to the playoffs 7 consecutive years and has numerous division titles"...

POC, assuming you are referencing me, you could really use a lesson in comprehension. You said packers fans shouldn't be surprised if MM got fired flat out if he didn't win the first play off game.

I replied that anyone who has followed the Packers under Ted Thompson/Mark Murphy's direction know that the Packers don't operate that way, and they should be nothing but surprised if TT/MM fired a coach with MM's history and success in GB for failing to win vs. Washington after a 10-6 season in which nothing seemed to go right. Note: my comments were specific to TT and MM and GB. Made clear in my comment- not that it couldn't happen anywhere else.

You are very knowledgeable in football x's and o's, far more than myself to be certain, and I respect that. But this post, which seems to be dedicated to proving you are right once again, and lambasting those who dare to question, is really off-putting and frankly, beneath you. I'm sorry you took my comments as a personal assault or some sort of challenge- they weren't. After seeing how you have summarized them, I'm guessing you read more into my remarks than was there.

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

February 09, 2016 at 07:24 pm

Not referrencing you at all. In fact, I can't remember who said it but know the words were uttered. But my point regarding consecutive division titles still stands. Elway clearly fired Fox for losing in the divisional round in 2014-15. Fox's teams were unprepared and soft. With no upgrade in talent from the previous year and a clear dropoff, from a performance stand point, at the QB position, Kubiak came in and guided his team to a championship. Division titles are great but you can't get a shot at the title unless you make it to the title fight. It's criminal if Rodgers doesn't make another appearance. Too many excuses being made for McCarthy and this Packer team. I've pointed out how other teams have handled similar adversity and succeeded (Panther, Broncos, Patriots). The Chiefs lost their most explosive weapon and won a playoff game. Baring an injury to Rodgers, the Packers need to make it to the Super Bowl in 2016-17. If not, at the very least he will be on the hot seat.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

February 09, 2016 at 10:46 pm

In all fairness Kubiak had a lot more to work with than Fox who didn't even have Miller for the Super Bowl. Sure Manning was just a shell of himself this year, but Elway recognized he needed to add talent. They signed Talib, Ware and Ward on defense and totally revamped the offense as well.

Elway did what Thompson will never do, own his mistakes and fix them sensible with trades and free agents.

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ray nichkee's picture

February 08, 2016 at 09:39 am

I thought i saw cam dabbing towards the end of the game, then i realized he was wiping away tears.

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Lphill's picture

February 08, 2016 at 12:42 pm

Wow did everyone read that Cow would take Cam over Rodgers any day, the MVP Most Valuable Punk , Cam will be out of the NFL long before Rodgers who will have multiple rings . All the haters here who think Rodgers is done , find another site to troll .

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DrealynWilliams's picture

February 08, 2016 at 01:05 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't that same defense have Aaron Rodgers looking like Cam Newton yesterday?

TFOH....

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TommyG's picture

February 08, 2016 at 01:30 pm

Yes. The Denver game for us was extremely ugly. Seems like Wade built his defense to beat the deep ball. Like us Carolina lives off of those deep plays and cams legs.

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