Nagler's Never Right: NFL 2014 Season Week Three Picks

Aaron's picks for Week Three of the regular season. 

7-9. Again. 

The new title for this weekly column may become "Nagler Is Not Only Never Right, He's A Downright Gluton For Punishment."

Here's hoping for a few more blessings from the football Gods this week.

Last week: 7-9

Season: 14-18

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The Falcons are hurting up front on offense, though they get Jake Matthews back. Also missing tonight's game will be Roddy White. But playing in their own house tonight should help Matt Ryan use his cadence and work at the line of scrimmage to negate some of the Bucs’ rush. Tampa Bay seems lost on offense, although the Falcons, who have given up more yardage than anyone in the league, could be the perfect opponent to help get them out of their funk.

Regardless, Ryan and the Falcons’ offense get the job done for an Atlanta victory.

San Diego at Buffalo

The Ralph is a notoriously tough place to play, no matter how the Bills are doing – and don’t look now, but the Bills are playing pretty damn well. The Chargers obviously are no pushover, and they looked good pushing the champs around last week.

But look for Buffalo’s defense to force Philip Rivers into a costly mistake and for the Bills to get the win.  

Dallas at St. Louis

St. Louis can be hard to watch for long stretches, but that defensive front can cause problems at home. Tony Romo missing practice early in the week has observers in a tizzy, but really, does it matter who is turning around and handing the ball to the running back?

It doesn’t really – not to the Rams. St. Louis gets their second win.

Washington at Philadelphia

Can Cousins take the job and run with it? Will DeSean be able to stick it to his old team? Do we really care? This whole game comes down to Washington’s ability to a) run the football and b) slow down Foles, McCoy, Sproles and company.

I don’t think they do. Eagles get the win.

Houston at NY Giants

So, we can expect J.J. Watt to be “more and more involved” on the offensive side of the ball? I have to admit, I’m not a fan of that idea – but I AM a fan of the Texans in New York. Big time.

The Giants are a mess. The Texans start a surprising 3-0.

Minnesota at New Orleans

Poor Minnesota. I mean, I’m a Packers fan and even I feel sorry for th… wait. No I don’t. Their handling of the entire Adrian Peterson episode should make every human being a fan of whatever team is playing this franchise.

New Orleans embarrasses the Vikings.

Tennessee at Cincinnati

The Titans’ defensive front looked like Swiss cheese against the Cowboys at home. And now they get to travel to Cincinnati and take on a very good Bengals offense. Not to mention, the Bengals defense doesn’t seem to have missed a beat without Mike Zimmer calling the shots.

The Bengals win big.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Yes, the first half against the Steelers looked like the Browns of old. But since then, the Browns have put together six straight quarters of quality football, nearly beating the Steelers and, let’s face it, shocking the Saints.

The Ravens were able to get back on track offensively against the Steelers. Flacco’s crew will find it much tougher this week in the Dawg Pound.

Don’t look now, but the Browns will be 2-1.

Green Bay at Detroit

This will go one of two ways – either we’ll see a shootout or a Lions blowout. I’ll be shocked if it’s a low-scoring affair and I will be absolutely flabbergasted if the Packers blow out the Lions.

The Packers won’t be able to control the Lions’ defensive front – but Aaron Rodgers’ quick decision making and release somewhat mitigates that circumstance. But it simply won’t be enough to beat a Lions team whose offense could potentially put up 30+ on Capers’ defense.

Lions 34, Packers 31.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Andrew Luck’s team has lost two games in a row for the first time in his professional career. Luckily for Colts fans, Jacksonville’s secondary has looked downright atrocious through eight quarters of play in this young season.

Add to that big changes on an offensive line that has been downright terrible so far, and the Jaguars are looking like the doormat we’ve come to expect rather than the tough football team some of us (yes, myself included) thought they would be this season.

The Colts finally get their first victory.

Oakland at New England

I just feel sorry for Raiders fans at this point.

San Francisco at Arizona

It’s funny how much a narrative around a team can change from week to week. The Niners went from a tough, hardnosed team that could punch you in the mouth coming off their win in Dallas to an error prone team that can’t get out of its own way or paper over the cracks in their secondary.

The Cardinals look like a worthy opponent. Yes, they feasted on the lowly Giants last week, but they have the receivers that could make life miserable for Vic Fangio – regardless of who is pulling the trigger.

Arizona wins in a mild surprise.  

Denver at Seattle

It’s been nearly two decades since a regular season Super Bowl rematch. This one shouldn’t look much different than the Super Bowl preceding it. The Broncos will struggle to move the ball, Peyton Manning will look mortal and the Seahawks offense will actually be able to possess the ball and score some points, unlike last week in San Diego.

It won’t be the epic blowout that the game in New Jersey was, but it will be a Hollywood-like sequel, with many of the same characters and a similar plot.  

Kansas City at Miami

Ryan Tannehill said this week he needs to play better. He’s right about that, but he's not alone. While the pass blocking has been better for Miami compared to last season, this offensive front stuggled to get much movement in the run game up in Bufflalo. Getting the running game on track will be the best possible thing that can happen for Tannehill's game. He's talented, but he can't carry a team. Not yet. 

As for the Chiefs, they got good news this week as Jamal Charles returned to practice after suffering a high ankle sprain. With no ligament damage, it sounds like Charles will be a game-time decision, which is somewhat incredible. Unfortunatley for Kansas City, even if Charles is able to go, he doesn't have much help up front. 

Look for Miami to bounce back and get their second win of the season. 

Pittsburgh at Carolina

The Panthers spent the whole offseason listening to Chicken Littles decry their "lack of talent" at the wide reciever position. They've spent the last two weeks reminding everyone how little they need at wide out. Oh sure, they need one to make a play or two now and then, and first round rookie Kelvin Benjamin looks legit. But this is a team that depends on a stout front seven (which it has with or without Greg Hardy) and a talented smart quarterback who can move the chains and make a handful of big plays when needed. 

The Steelers are in real trouble up front on defense. The middle of their defensive line looks like it couldn't stop a Pop Warner rushing attack - and now here come the Panthers.  

Carolina punches Pittsburgh in the mouth. 

Chicago at NY Jets

I am born and bred to hate the Bears - and even I thought that win against the 49ers was one of the most impressive efforts I've seen in a football game in a long time. From rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller to wide out Brandon Marshall to, yes, quarterback Jay Cutler, this team got the big plays they needed when it looked like they were done. 

The Jets put a damn good scare into the Packers and should have won up in Green Bay. If they can mirror the agressiveness they showed on both sides of the ball early on in Green Bay they could very well win this game. 

The Jets stayed in base personell a good deal of the time against Green Bay regardless of what kind of personnel the Packers put out on the field, most likely to hide a scary lack of depth in the secondary. That lack of talent against Marshall and fellow wideout Alshon Jeffery will end up costing Rex and company another game. The Bears get their second win. 

 

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Comments (10)

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4thand1's picture

September 18, 2014 at 08:09 pm

I predict 8-8 this week.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

September 18, 2014 at 08:13 pm

Nagler,

I'm driving home from work an hour ago listening to cbs sports radio when I hear your familiar voice come on, all the way out here in Portland. Kinda cool. Nice work my dude.

FYI - Tupac IS dead

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PackerAaron's picture

September 20, 2014 at 04:58 pm

Thanks Fitz. Very nice of you to say.

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Allan Murphy's picture

September 18, 2014 at 08:19 pm

packers 45 to 10 one wooping is enough .

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aj's picture

September 18, 2014 at 10:47 pm

Last week I was pretty close when I said 34-24 packers. This week, I think it should be a shootout. The lions will have to play pass, as I think they'll try to force us to run. Lacy should have his first 100 yard game, and that should help mitigate their pass rush. If we slow down the pass rush, Rodgers will tear apart their secondary. I believe slay will not be able to handle jordy, and their practice squad nickelback won't be able to stick with cobb or adams. Rodgers will have another big game, albeit a couple sacks. Also, the d should be able to play more assignment ready football with a nonthreat running qb. Haha gets his first pick too. 38-28 pack.

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Evan's picture

September 19, 2014 at 11:28 am

Here's hoping this is the week Lacy/the running game finally gets it going. But I'm not too confident.

Just got done reading this article on Grantland about the Jets, Lions and Cardinals great run defense.

"It’s a very, very small sample, but Arizona has the best run defense in the league, with Detroit sitting in third, and the Jets at fifth."

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/you-shall-not-run-the-brick-wall-rush-...

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aj's picture

September 19, 2014 at 09:44 pm

Honestly evan, my thought process comes from the idea that they will need to put more people in the secondary, and that will lead to 6 and 7 man fronts. I like lacy's odds when one man has to bring him down in the open field.

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Imma Fubared's picture

September 18, 2014 at 11:15 pm

I got the Lions over the Packers. Too much defense on the lions front, no O line for the Pack.
Vikes get spanked by New Orleans
Chicago ecks by the Jets but barely

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real some guy's picture

September 18, 2014 at 11:28 pm

Jets will win
Cowboys are a lock.
Bengals are a lock
for some reason i like pittsburgh. no idea why.

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barutanseijin's picture

September 19, 2014 at 11:28 am

The Vikings game is in NO. Not that it matters; I don't think the Vikes have a chance in Minnesota, in New Orleans or on a neutral site.

The Packers' oline is at a disadvantage on fake grass, but i have the feeling that the rookie kicker could blow the game for the Lions. They should have gone with Tavecchio.

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