Keys to Packers at Falcons Conference Championship Game

For the Packers, stopping Matt Ryan is vital, but stopping Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman might be more critical.

The Green Bay Packers have their work cut out for them this week, as they face an Atlanta Falcons team which has been steamrolling most defenses.

This week at Pro Football Weekly, I broke down how the pass rush of both the Packers and Falcons will decide this game. It’s probably the most pivotal aspect of the matchup.

In the interest of not rehashing the exact same article again, though, I think there’s another pretty important aspect to this game for the Packers defense.

They absolutely have to find a way to stop Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

Yes, the Packers have a highly ranked, top ten run defense. On paper.

In practice, it has been blown up by good running backs—most notably Ezekiel Elliott. Rob Kelley dropped 137 yards on them, Demarco Murray totaled 123. They have mostly feasted on bad backfields—the Chicago Bears, he Houston texans minus Lamar Miller and the Detroit Lions—or bad offensive lines—the New York Giants, the Minnesota Vikings, the Indianapolis Colts.

Atlanta’s offensive line has issues pass blocking but are excellent run blockers. And Freeman and Coleman are a tremendous combination.

The last thing the Falcons want is for Aaron Rodgers to be on the field. Even with the *M*A*S*H* unit for a wide receiver corps, he’s a dangerous factor. As much as the Falcons will throw the ball to test the secondary, they will also utilize the running backs.

Freeman isn’t getting all the carries as he did before this season, but what he’s getting he is absolutely killing teams with. In Week 17, he carried the ball 12 times for 96 yards and a touchdown, adding five catches for 81 yards. Last week against Seattle, he carried the ball 14 times for just 45 yards and a touchdown but torched them with 4 catches for 80 yards.

He was a huge reason why the Falcons beat the Denver Broncos and their vaunted defense in Week 5, and topped 100 yards combined with two touchdowns against a tough Kansas City Chiefs defense in Week 13.

Coleman isn’t quite as prolific—and he was hurt part of the season—but he’s finding the end zone regularly, scoring five touchdowns over the final six weeks of the season and totaling 79 yards and a touchdown against Seattle last week.

They’re a versatile pairing too, running the ball both inside the gaps and outside the tackles, lining up in the slot and generally giving defenses fits, especially when those defenses also have Julio Jones and now Taylor Gabriel to contend with.

The Packers face a similar - if not quite as potent—problem as they did with Elliott. They were able to overcome Elliott’s yards by keeping him out of the end zone, but they never shut him down.

If they can limit Freeman and Coleman’s and keep them out of the end zone, it could be a victory, but ultimately, the defense wants to get off the field and get the ball in Rodgers’ hands.

Shutting down Freeman and Coleman completely will be tough, but the Packers have to find a way.

 

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Comments (17)

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croatpackfan's picture

January 20, 2017 at 05:20 am

Well, we all knows how Dallas game finished. Yes, Elliott had 125 yards and Bryant had 132 with 2 TD. Packers still win.
To be honest I do not know how Packers can stop Falcons, but it is not strange. I'm not football coach or player, I'm just fan who learned to believe Packers organization. So, I trust Packers coaches that they will come with the excellent game plan which will allows Packers to compete and win if few small things will go Packers way.
I know lot of people here is in fear because of those hard loses in the past, but that was those little things that were going against Packers not to Packers way.
Again, I will enjoy the ghame and I will cheer for Packers. I believe Packers will win.

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Chad Lundberg's picture

January 22, 2017 at 03:50 am

I believe the Packers very much will shut down Freeman and Ward. Why? Because they did so earlier this year.

They had a combined 81 rushing yards, but Freeman and Ward each had a single rush of 17 and 26 yards respectively. If you minus those two plays, then they rush for just 43 yards, and a meager 3.5 yards a carry. They just got lucky on two plays. If we can keep that from happening again, the run game should be no problem.

It's the damn passing game that's giving me a heart attack. GB's secondary has been terrible, and their best two CB's have been wildly inconsistent all year. They have had a few very good games, so let's hope they have one of their better performances in the game.

But I'm not that worried about Freeman and Cole. And that's coming from someone who's been saying the Falcons will win all week. Although, unexpectedly, it looks like all three injured receivers will play this week, so I guess my prediction will have to change. On a side note: I'm making a prediction - I Wouldn't be surprised if they keep Jordy Nelson to red-zone situations only.

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NickPerry's picture

January 20, 2017 at 05:54 am

Shutting down Freeman and Coleman will be tough, but so will shutting down Montgomery and Michael. I think it's paramount that McCarthy uses Michael to run the ball, but also use him in the passing game from time to time so they don't just key on the run when he's in the game. Obviously Montgomery should get most of the work, but don't just limit Michaels to KR duties. He averaged 4.7 YPC against the Giants who are the 85 Bears when compared to the Falcons defense.

Atlanta gives up more YPC than the Packers and they also give up more points than the Packers defense. The Packers just hung 38 and then 34 points against the #1 and #2 scoring defenses in the NFC. I keep hearing all this talk about the Packers Defense getting shredded by the Falcons, and they probably will. But the Packers have been doing some shredding of their own.

All these "Experts" talk as though the Packers simply don't have a chance and that's wrong. Because these same "Experts" are the ones who said the Packers won't be able to beat the #1 Defense in the NFC yet in was over halfway through the 3rd quarter. These same "Experts" said NO WAY do they beat the Cowboys, a Cowboys team BTW was as healthy as healthy could be.

8 more quarters!

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chugwater's picture

January 20, 2017 at 07:12 am

I am sooooo tired of hearing Atlanta is going to win by the majority of the media. The narrative is so one sided and subjective. Green Bay is certainly banged up and will give up points, but everyone glances over Atlanta's blemishes. Nevermind that Julio Jones has a bad wheel too. Their second best rusher was just placed on IR earlier this week. No one seems to take that into account.

The unit that is getting absolutely no respect right now is the GB offensive line. I've heard more about Vic Beasley this week than how well our line protects Rodgers. Aaron will have all afternoon to sit in the pocket and pick this ordinary-at-best defense apart.

And don't get me started on Atlanta's 'home field advantage'. No one has figured out yet that playing on the road in the playoffs doesn't matter to GB. In fact, the team would rather play in a dome environment than in the extreme cold. Helps the offense.

This game will come down to a critical turnover, penalty, or special teams play. I like our chances.

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NickPerry's picture

January 20, 2017 at 07:31 am

Agreed. I've always listened on the TV to "Mike & Mike" in the morning getting ready for work. For the 3rd week in a row I've listened to Golic talk as though the defense the Packers are going against will have no problem stopping them. His main focus this week is Vic Beasley and the Atlanta defense will be too much for the Packers. Make Rodgers make quick decisions and the Packers can be had. Funny thing is Atlanta's defense BLOWS and are no better than the Packers defense, not really.

As long as the Falcons aren't 'Piping in Noise" like they were busted for before, I think the Packers have a great chance of shutting up those Falcons fans. You'd think the way they talk about the Falcons we were playing Bill B and the Patriots. Ummmm...That won't be for another 16 days.

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Bearmeat's picture

January 20, 2017 at 06:33 am

I don't expect to be able to shut down ATL's running attack. I'd guess somewhere in the neighborhood of 110 total ground yards - in addition to the 350 I expect to give up through the air. Although, to be fair, every game they got laced in throughout the year except Elliot got those yards via one big run. Giving up huge plays on the ground is something GB can't allow. Nor do I expect ATL to allow a lot of QB hits. Even though their pass blocking is suspect, Ryan gets the ball out too fast. I read that he got the ball out in under a 2.35 seconds average against Seattle.

The great thing is that if Adamas/GMo play I don't think ATL can stop any aspect of GBs offense either. Their fans think their defense is better than ours. Their fans are deluded. ARod won't be touched, and I think Monty can have a very good day against their suspect LBs.

The key to this game is going to be forcing 1 turnover in ATL territory, or 1 special teams explosive play, or 3 punts. First team to do that wins. Or first team to 40. :)

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NickPerry's picture

January 20, 2017 at 06:56 am

Looking at the Game Log from the 1st game I saw something interesting. The Packers RB's were Don Jackson and Kniles Davis. ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!!! Montgomery didn't even play, matter of fact it it seemed the Packers had more starters injured than playing in that game. Randall, Rollins, Matthews, Cook, Cobb, and Montgomery were all out. I know this weeks injury report is probably longer and includes Nelson, Adams, and Burnett but still. THIS is why I think the Packers RUN the ball. Partly because I think they'll need to, but mostly because I think they can.

Here's the Log if you care to look.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016103001/2016/REG8/packers@falcons#menu=...

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chugwater's picture

January 20, 2017 at 07:52 am

One would think that with Cookie having a 100+ yd, TD, and critical game winning catch at the end of regulation last week the media would be giving him some respect.

I haven't hear one figure mention his name as a threat against the ATL defense.

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Bearmeat's picture

January 20, 2017 at 06:30 am

Hey Garda, you keep publishing in black print. It's impossible to read with the green background unless you highlight it.

Just thought you'd want to know.

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jlc1's picture

January 20, 2017 at 12:09 pm

Ditto, I thought it was me. Thanks Bearmeat.

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Tundraboy's picture

January 20, 2017 at 08:21 pm

Thanks, I was about to reset my phone.

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sheppercheeser's picture

January 20, 2017 at 06:35 am

I strongly believe that because of the even matchups (awesome offenses, shoddy defenses on both teams), the outcome will be dependent on who makes fewer mistakes in terms of penalties and turnovers.

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Handsback's picture

January 20, 2017 at 07:38 am

I'm more concerned about the man-to-man defense the DBs will play vs. what the front 7 will do on the Falcons. If they play tight and start to blitz and keep Rodgers from those 2nd and 3rd looks (think Dallas 3-4th qtrs.) then that could be a problem.

Green Bay has to do some running on their own. Monty, Rip, and Michael could have some great gains out there.

This will be a great game!

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Tundraboy's picture

January 20, 2017 at 08:20 am

Offense has to continue to move the ball and score at same level as we have seen in last 8 weeks. On D play physical. Need Burnett and play Brice as much as possible. And God please no more injuries!!

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RCPackerFan's picture

January 20, 2017 at 09:18 am

Keys to the game.

First and foremost... Rodgers plays great, I think the Packers win.

Besides Rodgers, the Packers need big contributions from Montgomery, Cook and Cobb.
With the injuries to the other WR's. these guys have to play big.

On defense if they can get 1-2 turnovers, and hold the Falcons to some FG's I think that will be enough to win the game.

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CJ Bauckham's picture

January 20, 2017 at 12:33 pm

3 Keys...

1) Start fast

2) Hold Atl to field goals instead of td's

3) Win the turnover battle

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ironman3169's picture

January 20, 2017 at 07:06 pm

Looks like a repeat of the Dallas game. The defense that tightens up first determines the winner. I have faith in Green Bay's offense to get the job done. What is needed is a play following a coach's insistence that "it's time".

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