Key Matchups: Packers vs. Bears

This piece will cover some of the key matchups in Sunday Night's opener that could make the difference between a Packers win and a Packers loss.

The regular season is finally upon us, and there is not a better way to kick it off then to jump right into the season's first episode of “Bear Week”.  The Bears head into week 1’s prime time Sunday Night matchup with a roaring confidence after landing arguably the NFL’s best defensive player, Khalil Mack in a blockbuster trade with the Raiders last week.  The Bears have not been shy when discussing how Mack’s acquisition will elevate them to one of the NFL’s top 5 defenses.

Players, coaches, and NFL pundits alike have certainly provided the Packers with bulletin board material for the first installment of Bear week.  NBC certainly has cashed in on the headline billing of Mack vs. Rodgers to promote Sunday Night’s main event week 1 matchup, however, a Packers win or loss will depend on many more crucial matchups than just these two headline players.

Here are just a FEW of the very key matchups that will determine whether the Packers will triumph over the Bears on Sunday Night:

1. The Packers Offensive Line vs. The Bears Front Seven- (Bakhtiari and Bulaga vs. Mack):

In order for the Packers to win on Sunday Night, they must disprove Akiem Hicks’s statements about their offensive line and avoid any Aaron Rodgers vs. Khalil Mack one on one matchups at all costs.  Rodgers certainly has quite a unique and uncanny ability to scramble and move the pocket with his feet turning sure sacks into positive plays, but in order to keep him on the field for all 16 games, the Packers offensive line must consistently protect him, in order to keep him away from one on one matchups with elite pass rushers like Mack.  

Left Tackle, David Bakhtiari will draw one of his fiercest matchups to date in Khalil Mack.  He will need to continue his dominant play in pass blocking efficiency (88.9 according to PFF) as well as his 96.7% blocking success rate to avoid any pressures and hurries to Rodgers blind side.  On the right side of the line, Brian Bulaga must prove that he is fully recovered from his torn ACL which took place in the first week of November last season.

Bulaga is now ten months removed from his surgery and faces his final test in the road to recovery.  In order to regain his place as a top right tackle in this league, Bulaga must prove that his strength, agility, and athleticism have returned and that he is ready to compete against the likes of Khalil Mack, Leonard Floyd, Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, and the rest of the Chicago Bears front seven.  

If I was Vic Fangio, I would move my edge rushers back and forth from the left and right side so that Bulaga and Bakhtiari would have to see multiple different skill sets and I would make sure that I would test Brian Bulaga’s strength and athleticism against Khalil Mack as much as I could.  

2. The Packers Front Seven vs. The Bears Offensive Line- (Can Clay Matthews and Nick Perry generate consistent pressures):

Sunday will be the unveiling of Mike Pettine’s “non-vanilla” defense.  Fans, scouts, and NFL pundits alike are awaiting Pettine’s game plan with bated breath as they wonder whether the Packers newly hired defensive coordinator can breathe life back into a defense that was lifeless just one season ago.  Opposing scouts will be interested to see whether the Packers dominate front line of Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, Muhammed Wilkerson, Dean Lowry, and Montravious Adams will be able to help create penetration and pass rushing lanes for Clay Matthews and Nick Perry or whether it will be more of the same ineffective pass rushes from years past.    

Getting started off on the right foot in 2018 will be key for Matthews and Perry to have bounce-back seasons and I look for the Packers main trio of tackles (Clark, Daniels, and Wilkerson) to bulldoze their way through the Bears offensive line and create lanes for Perry and Matthews to create consistent pressures and have plenty of sack opportunities.  

3. How the Packers Young Secondary Performs in their First Real NFL Test-(Joshua Jackson and Jaire Alexander’s Baptism by Fire):

After a fantastic preseason, the expectations have soared for Joshua Jackson and Jaire Alexander.  Both showed why the Packers invested a tremendous amount of draft capital on them by their stellar individual and collective performances in the Packers secondary thus far.  They showed superior one on one coverage skills and an ability to make plays on the ball through both interceptions and pass defenses.

Many expect head coach Matt Nagy and his staff to try and test the coverage discipline of Jackson and Alexander with double moves to see if they will prematurely jump any routes which could lead to big plays down the field for Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton.  Jackson and Alexander will have the opportunity to prove to everyone that their preseason play is a true indication of the caliber of players that they are by staying disciplined on their one on one route coverage, by staying with the Bears receivers, and by making plays on the ball in key situations that will get the Packers defense off of the field.  

I expect the Bears to take shots down the field early and often, using play action and double moves to try and bate the young members of the Packers secondary.  I could see the Bears making a big play down the field early on, but, I suspect that Jackson and Alexander will settle in quickly and have productive games for the Packers.  

4. Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Graham vs. The Bears Redzone Defense:

The Packers have been waiting all preseason for the opportunity to show off their aerial red zone attack highlighted by the new connection of Aaron Rodgers to Jimmy Graham.  We all witnessed a very brief glimpse of what the Packers could be in store for when the dynamic duo hooked up for an 8-yard touchdown against an overmatched Steelers secondary.  Jimmy Graham’s size, positioning, and athleticism will provide the Packers with a distinct advantage and will increase their red zone efficiency and touchdown percentage.

Graham’s combination of size, speed, strength, and athleticism will make it difficult for any of the Bears cornerbacks, safeties, or linebackers to prevent him winning any one on one matchups against them. I expect Rodgers to go to Jimmy Graham every chance that he can on Sunday Night, in Graham's Packers debut.  Look for the Packers to line up in formations and run routes that will present matchup nightmares for the Bears linebackers and secondary.

I suspect that Jimmy Graham make the difference in this game through the impact that he will make inside of the red zone.  I am looking for Jimmy Graham to catch 5-7 passes for 70-80 yards and have 2 touchdowns which will ultimately prove to be the difference maker in a highly competitive opening Sunday Night football matchup.  

5. Predictions and Stars:

1. Aaron Rodgers 30/37 285 yards 3 touchdowns.

2. Jimmy Graham 7 catches for 80 yards 2 touchdowns.

3. Clay Matthews 2 sacks and a forced fumble.

4. Special Teams shines and wins the field position battle.

5. David Bakhtiari keeps Aaron Rodgers blindside protected.

Final Score: Bears 20 Packers 24

 

 

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David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave 

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Comments (40)

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Lphill's picture

September 08, 2018 at 11:32 am

Packers 31 Bears 17 ,Rodgers 300+ 3 TD , K Mack 0 sacks , Packers D line will be the stars of this game and will put the rest of the NFL on notice , go Pack go!

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Tundraboy's picture

September 08, 2018 at 06:38 pm

 "Packers D line will be the stars of this game and will put the rest of the NFL on notice"

That's my single greatest wish for this season. Perfect setting and stage to do so, right from the start.

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NickPerry's picture

September 08, 2018 at 09:07 pm

I'm right there with you TB. I think Clark takes another jump and Wilkerson turns out to be the best $5 million the Packers spent this year.

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Tundraboy's picture

September 09, 2018 at 03:40 pm

Agreed NP. Enjoy the game.

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henry113's picture

September 08, 2018 at 12:04 pm

With some pass protection Arod should blow them away. Trubisky is not on the same level as Rodgers and the Bears offense just wont put up enough points.
Pack 37 Bears 14.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

September 08, 2018 at 12:08 pm

BREAKING NEWS: THE BEARS STILL SUCK!

Oh wait that's old news...

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Kb999's picture

September 08, 2018 at 12:18 pm

Can't wait for #12's return. Packers kick Bears ass.

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NickPerry's picture

September 08, 2018 at 12:22 pm

I don't see the Bears scoring 20 points in this game mostly because this is a new system for the Bears just like the Packers Defense is new for them. Trubisky hasn't played much more than Rodgers in the preseason and it wasn't like he lit it up either. I'll trust Rodgers more than Trubisky in week one. At least until Trubisky throws 10 TD passes...FOR HIS CAREER!!!

Speaking of players who haven't lit it up Allen Robinson didn't catch a pass all preseason, Gabriel caught ONE and Burton caught five. That's just 6 catches for the $22 million spent on those 3 receivers. I know it's the preseason but common...A QB with like 24 starts to his career including college and an entire new receiving corps? Seems to me Hicks should keep his big mouth shut and worry about his own offense instead of pissing off what I'd assume is a very anxious and talented offense and the best player on the planet.

I have Mack, Hicks, and Bear burnout right now. Let the azz kicking begin already.

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henry113's picture

September 08, 2018 at 12:37 pm

Nick, agreed. I don't think the game will be close. I hope the officials keep out of it and let them play.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

September 08, 2018 at 01:45 pm

Henry I wish that would be true but based off of Thursday's game and preseason I fully expect the officials to constantly interrupt. Would love to be proven wrong and for them to let football players play.

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dobber's picture

September 08, 2018 at 02:34 pm

It's going to be a sloppy game. It's cliche, but the team that makes fewer big mistakes wins.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

September 08, 2018 at 03:55 pm

Yep, My thoughts exactly. I also think Mack can be schemed against, just a bunch of teams team did it last season against the Raiders. He'll get some pressures and probably a sack but it won't stop Rodgers.

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Bearmeat's picture

September 08, 2018 at 01:25 pm

Points 1,3,4 are going to be the real tests. I trust GBs run D to completely shut down Howard, and Tramon is going to play well against ARob, but if pressure comes at Mitch, it's going to be from the DL and blitzes from unusual places. CM3 and Perry just are who they are at this point - they're not going to win against NFL caliber OTs very often.

Burton, Cohen and Gabriel are the question marks. How well does Burks play vs Burton/Cohen? How well does Alexander and King play against Gabriel?

And on the other side of the ball, I don't expect to be able to run well. I think this is a bigger game for Monty catching passes out of the backfield than it will be pounding up the middle for Williams.

Mack will get his, but overall I do expect our OTs to be just fine. Graham and Adams are going to feast on that secondary and ARod will as well.

GB: 27 - ARod 25-37 270 yards and 3 TDs. 0 INTs
CHI: 14 - Trubisky 21/34. 210 yards. 1 TD. 2 INTs

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Jonathan Spader's picture

September 08, 2018 at 01:48 pm

Bearmeat the Bears don't possess NFL Caliber tackles. I think a healthy CM3 and Perry under Pettine's system with pressure being applied big time upfront they might surprise you. On a similar note Cobb is 100% and should feast on the middle of the field.

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Bearmeat's picture

September 08, 2018 at 02:25 pm

I have my doubts on both fronts. I think CM3 is above average at everything required of an OLB not named rushing the passer now. I think Perry is a good run stopper and a pretty good pass rusher, when fully healthy. So maybe for week 1/2, you'll be right. I certainly hope so. I have very little hope for that position this year as a whole though.

Regarding Cobb, what was his defining trait? Quickness. Have you seen that at all since 2014? I haven't. People say he's healthy - well ok. But I want to see those quicks back before I call him anything more than an average slot WR who is overpaid.

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dobber's picture

September 08, 2018 at 02:37 pm

I think more of CMIII than you do, as you know, but not a lot more. I think his effectiveness is dictated by who is playing opposite him. He's better when someone on the other side can pressure the passer. I think he'll be good until Perry gets hurt (unless Gilbert shows he's got the chops).

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Jonathan Spader's picture

September 08, 2018 at 02:52 pm

I saw the quickness from Cobb against the Giants last year. He tore them apart and had a huge day. He had an Adams like moment at the goal line where he joked and broke the db's ankles. Unfortunately those moments have been more and more rare with Cobb with years of injuries piling up.

My point was only that a healthy Perry, CM3, and Cobb are all above average NFL starters. They're all being paid as such. Unfortunately their health never lasts. So let's enjoy watching them while they're healthy.

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Kb999's picture

September 08, 2018 at 04:30 pm

Bear, I also think Clay & Perry are pretty good, the problem is can you get a full season out of them. I think Cobb is going to tear them up.

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Lare's picture

September 08, 2018 at 05:13 pm

The key to this season will be how the Packers deal with the inevitable injuries to starting players like Matthews, Perry, Bulaga, Cobb and Montgomery. Hopefully younger players like Jones, Burks & Kumerow don't follow in that unfortunately consistent trend.

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Bearmeat's picture

September 08, 2018 at 08:40 pm

Agreed. The depth does not look good on paper at those spots. That said, there seems to at least be raw talent behind them. Which is better than the UDFA's for the past 10 years. But I wish we did have a few more players who can win 1v1 at WR and OLB.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

September 08, 2018 at 10:43 pm

2019 draft buddy.

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PAPackerbacker's picture

September 08, 2018 at 02:03 pm

Rodgers throws for 3 TD's, GB defense scores a TD on a pick 6. Add a field goal. GB wins 31 - 17. Go! Pack ! Go!

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Cartwright's picture

September 08, 2018 at 02:33 pm

If you saw the first series of each pre-season game, the offense looked good and the defense not so good. Same as always. The run defense looked suspect as did Wilkerson. Maybe it was an aberration. With Ryan out, Josh out and Burks hurt I'm curious to see how we stack up and see if third down is still an issue.

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dobber's picture

September 08, 2018 at 02:41 pm

I hold out hope that the Packers withholding a big chunk of their defensive playbook led to some of that. Nobody specifically schemes for opponents in the preseason. I don't expect the defense will look great early, sure, but--assuming it's relatively healthy--if it's not improving over the course of the season, I'll be surprised.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

September 08, 2018 at 04:00 pm

Yeah, you can tell by how the players are talking about it. When is the last time Packers Defenders had swagger when talking about the scheme?

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Tundraboy's picture

September 08, 2018 at 06:45 pm

I cant remember.Sigh.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

September 08, 2018 at 07:59 pm

Even Woodson and Jenkins where bitching about Capers scheme.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

September 08, 2018 at 10:59 pm

Caper's scheme got Woodson DPOY.

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J0hn Denver's Gavel's picture

September 09, 2018 at 12:42 am

schematic swagger? Seriously?

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Skip greenBayless's picture

September 08, 2018 at 03:43 pm

I think Jamaal Williams will have to be heavily involved in this game for them to win. This type of hard hitting game is made for him. He needs 25 touches in this game. I don't trust this o- line yet for them to just pass pass pass all night and not anything bad happen.

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henry113's picture

September 08, 2018 at 07:24 pm

Rodgers will air it out every chance he can. He will mix in Williams to keep the Bears honest.

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Skip greenBayless's picture

September 08, 2018 at 07:31 pm

Honest? The Bears are never honest.

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henry113's picture

September 08, 2018 at 07:34 pm

Your right my friend.

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Samson's picture

September 08, 2018 at 09:41 pm

Everything points to a fairly easy Packer "V".
I just hope the Packers aren't thinking the same.
There's a huge gap between the Bears' talent & the Packer's talent, especially the play of AR versus Trubisky.

However, I'm not sure that the obvious will determine the final score in this game. --- If the Pack make too many early misakes in this one, they may very well be digging for a "W" by games end.

After all, this is still the Bears versus the Pack.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

September 08, 2018 at 11:10 pm

Because it's the 1st game I really hope the Packers don't just come out swinging but we see Philbin help MM keep his foot on the gas. I don't just want to beat the Bears I want to see them humiliated.

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Oppy's picture

September 09, 2018 at 08:21 am

a healthy Nick Perry is a productive Nick Perry. If the interior of the DL holds up their end up the donkey (and I think they will) look for Perry to be a difference maker in this game- particularly vs. the run,

Pray he and clay see some good fortune in the health department this year for a change.

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Tundraboy's picture

September 09, 2018 at 03:43 pm

Prayers are in!

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Kb999's picture

September 09, 2018 at 04:02 pm

Agreed pray for health. With that being said, do you extend Clay??

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Oppy's picture

September 09, 2018 at 04:57 pm

like in all things football, only if the money is right.

It would cause more damage if the Packers overpaid to keep Matthews, than it would to let him go and deal with a potential "void" left in his absence.

It is going to come down to if Matthews wants to stay in GB or if he's all about that paycheck. Some team will eagerly overpay him.

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4thand10's picture

September 09, 2018 at 09:49 am

23- 10 another odd scoring Packers Bears game .Green Bay Wins. I hope they leave Alexander, Williams and Jackson 1 on 1 because I highly doubt the Bears will go deep. They are going to be relying on Howard, screens to Cohen and a short passing attack to TEs. If they go deep, the score will run up more in Green Bays favor due to interceptions. At one point this season I would like the packers to acquire another DL so that the can play base all year.

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