Just Imagine...

...if Thompson had taken Haloti Ngata instead of A.J. Hawk.

I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'....

 

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Comments (14)

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LMB's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:14 am

Imagine if Thompson picked any of the guys 6-17 (except Ngata) instead of Hawk? Yuck.

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Jayme's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:15 am

Or imagine if he took Devin Hester. Or imagine if he took Brandon Marshall. Or imagine if he took DeMeco Ryans.
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You could argue that all of these players would have given more of a benefit to the Packers than Hawk has. Does that mean he should have taken then with the 5th overall pick? No. There was absolutely no way, at that point in time, to project that any of those players would have done better than Hawk. As I've stated 100 times before, the ONLY other player that the Packers would have selected instead of Hawk was Vernon Davis. The Hawk pick, given all of the information available at the time, was 100% the correct pick.
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This is the fundamental flaw with the way decisions are judged. Everyone looks at the outcome of the decision. The reality is that people should be looking at the decision making process. If the correct decision was made with the information available, then it is a good decision. You cannot use new information to judge an old decision. It serves absolutely no purpose. There's a reason that every GM drafts players who turn into busts. That doesn't mean that they are necessarily bad GM's, just that they didn't have all of the information necessary to make a better pick.
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PS. I feel that I am qualified to make these statements because I'm a statistician. I'm highly sensitive to people making assumptions about decisions based on new information.

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PackerAaron's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:22 am

Remind me never to try to have fun when Jayme's around. Forgiveeeeee meeeeeee.....

;)

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Erik's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:32 am

What if the Packers had Rex Ryan as their defensive coordinator last year instead of Sanders?

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Ruppert's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:44 am

If only Thompson would have played D line for the Oilers instead of linebacker...

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Jayme's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:53 am

Sorry about that Aaron, like I said, I'm a bit sensitive to people attacking decisions based on information that wasn’t available at the time. And I'm really tired of people saying that Hawk is a bust, considering he had over 100 tackles in '06 and '07. I know, tackles aren't everything, but he really isn't a bad player, and I don't understand why people keep saying "bust" just because he's not bound for the HOF. If he’s picked 10 picks later, everyone thinks it’s a great pick, because just about every player selected ahead of him is awful. Or if Favre never tries to come back, half of Packers “fans” don’t hate Hawk just because he’s a Thompson pick.
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Now, I know that you study film a lot more extensively than most people, so I trust you when you criticize Hawk, but I just think it’s way to early to say that Bishop is the better choice. While Bishop has been considerably stouter at the point of attack, he’s pretty much the only guy really blowing people up right now. When the team gets into a preseason game and there isn’t the fear of injuring your own teammates, if Hawk is still apprehensive, then I’ll buy your argument. After all, a lot of people were predicting good things from hook based on his first two seasons. If he hadn’t gotten hurt (and there weren’t a hundred injuries to all the players around him) I doubt we’re even having this conversation now.
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PS. Who knew “stouter” was a word?

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Roy's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:53 am

I hope AJ proves us wrong this year...

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WoodyG's picture

August 05, 2009 at 11:57 am

OR..... if GB had drafted Barry Sanders instead of Tony Mandarich in 1989.
That would definitely have been a history changer.
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Aaron
You're not allowed to have fun. With some of your recent blogs, it's difficult to tell if you're being serious....You must have been a left-fielder in your little-league days. LOL.

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PackerAaron's picture

August 05, 2009 at 12:00 pm

Jayme - no worries. And yes, we'll see on Hawk, though most of the limitations I've written about here on the site were around when he was healthy as well, esp his problems rushing the passer. If he's got a clear lane on a delay blitz, he's great. If he has to beat a guy, forget it...

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Asshalo's picture

August 05, 2009 at 12:34 pm

"Remind me never to try to have fun when Jayme’s around"

haha, I was going to say something similiar. I haven't given up on hawk yet though. Hopefully he is poised to have his best year yet this year.

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Mr. Optimistic's picture

August 05, 2009 at 01:28 pm

Jayme, there were people saying Hawk was an overrated meh LB at the time, and they weren't all Michigan fans. I didn't like the pick when it was made, and i like it less now.

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Robert Greenfield's picture

August 05, 2009 at 02:31 pm

I was in love with Ngata on draft day and when I saw the Ravens took him, I just thought to myself, "a great defense just got better." He is an animal - constantly double- and triple-teamed. At the time, however, Hawk appeared to be a dream pick and it seemed to suit our needs perfectly. I am still a believer in AJ, but this is not an endless well of hope, either.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

August 05, 2009 at 08:38 pm

Mr. Optimistic, who did you want to pick @5?

GBP 4 LIFE

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mrj's picture

August 06, 2009 at 12:37 am

Was there a better LB available at #5? Even with hindsight? No. Only DeMeco Ryans and AJ Hawk have actually produced of the 31 taken.

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