How Can The Packers Move The Ball?

Mike McCarthy will need to adjust his offense significantly for Matt Flynn when the Packers take on the Patriots tonight.

With Matt Flynn set to make his first career NFL start, head coach and offensive playcaller Mike McCarthy will have to adjust several aspects of his offensive gameplan. Most obviously, he will need to make "staying on schedule" (staying in 2nd and 3rd short/manageable) a priority. McCarthy tends to get a little careless in this regard when Rodgers is under center, mostly because he knows Rodgers and his receiving corps can make up any down and distance with a single play.

How does McCarthy accomplish this? The biggest priority will be focusing on the West Coast aspects of his playbook. Slant, smash, dig routes and delayed backs out of the backfield should be the order of the day. The 10-15 yard patterns driving downfield need to be, if not eliminated, then greatly scaled back. Flynn just doesn't have the arm. (If you though his arm looked weak in the climate-controlled environment of Ford Field, you'll want to look away when he is forced deep tonight in the wintry weather of Gillette Stadium)

One of the best ways to take advantage of the Patriots up front is to run the slip screen that has paid dividends for the Packers offense in the past. It's a simple set-up and throw that Flynn should have no trouble executing. In the example below, watch how Rodgers looks off the safety first before coming back to his left to hit Jackson. This simple use of his eyes and head open up the inside just enough for Jackson to turn the play into a big gain:

Of course, more than any other pass play, what will help Flynn the most will be to get him something, anything, going in the run game. The best way for the Packers to achieve this is to go to more angle blocking rather than their prefered zone-blocking. The Browns had great success running against the Pats not only because Peyton Hillis was running like a beast (which he was) but also because the Browns' offensive line did a great job of picking off Patriot defenders and then sustaining their blocks.

McCarthy did this with some success toward the end of the 2008 season, when he mixed in not only angle blocks but pulling guards and simple man blocking concepts. Bryan Bulaga and Josh Sitton in particular could thrive on these kind of plays.

Regardless of how the Packers do in the run game, McCarthy will need to make sure he keeps calling run plays for no other reason than to set up the playaction sprint/rollout game and to take advantage of the Patriots linebackers hard-biting tendencies. Again, this is something the Browns made a living at when they beat the Pats

Bill Belichick is famous for getting up in front of his defense each week and highlighting two aspects of the opponents game that they must absolutely, positively take away at all costs. It's Belichick's way of forcing his opponent to dribble with his weak hand and he is better than anyone in NFL history at preaching it on Wednesday and then making it happen on Sunday. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, Belichick's demands may have been obvious - keep Rodgers in the pocket and take away Greg Jennings.

But with Matt Flynn at the helm, the Packers offense, while definitely limited in their ability to push the ball downfield the way they can with Rodgers, almost becomes more of a mystery. McCarthy will be forced to go to the stuff deep in his playbook that he only brings out for special occasions. I would look for a version of the play where Favre hit Driver for a 90 yard touchdown in the NFC Championship game. On that play, the Packers showed two concepts they had run all season long, both a pump fake to a slant and THEN a fake draw, before hitting Driver up the right sideline. It was the only time all year they ran it and you can bet McCarthy will pull out one or two similar concepts tonight.

Packer fans have seemingly been divided into two distinctive groups this week. The fans that think the Packers have no chance to beat the Patriots with Matt Flynn under center and the fans that think that anything can happen and that the Packers have more than a chance.

The truth is, the Packers will need a break or two to go their way, preferably early. A big kick return or an uncharacteristic turnover from the Patriots. Something that both takes the crowd down a notch and gives the team some momentum. Absent something like this, yes, the Packers will need to play a near perfect game, especially on offense. Their best shot is to keep the ball away from Tom Brady, try to shorten the game and hope they are within striking distance at the end. If that happens, they have a chance. A good one? Maybe not. But a chance none the less.

 

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Comments (39)

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jerseyAl's picture

December 19, 2010 at 09:40 am

Awesome work!

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PackerAaron's picture

December 19, 2010 at 05:13 pm

Thanks man.

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Ruppert's picture

December 19, 2010 at 09:51 am

Great stuff, Aaron. I want to see Flynn throw some screens. Sometimes Arod doesn't get the best trajectory on his screen throws. Here's hoping that Flynn might have a little better touch on those ones.

I just want the defense to hold it together, if for no other reason than psychology. If we can come out of here only giving up 21 or 24 points, I think it will do a lot for the overall confidence in the next 2 games. If we give up 48, it could go the other way.

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WoodyG's picture

December 19, 2010 at 10:22 am

Someone needs to keep reminding MM that Flynn is the QB on the field (Maybe AR can do that on the sidelines during the game) ..... Can't have Matt Flynn running "AR Type" plays like the 4th & 1 to end the Lions debacle .....

Woodson & Collins each have only two picks on the season ..... This game would be the time to move their totals up a notch or two .....

Philly over the Giants, Detroit over the Bucs and GB over the Pats ....... "Two out of three ain't bad" .....

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rickybobby's picture

December 19, 2010 at 10:26 am

grasping at straws

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PackerAaron's picture

December 19, 2010 at 10:28 am

No, it's called trying to win. Of course, quitters don't understand that.

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rickybobby's picture

December 19, 2010 at 10:37 am

actually that sounds more like trying not to lose.

i prefer "realist".

but you're right...

-IF they get a big special teams play (not exactly the Packers' strong suit)

-IF the Pats turn the ball over (something the rarely do)

-IF they change their run scheme (something that would require a stubborn coach to make an adjustment)

-IF they adjust their passing strategy (see "change run game")

THEN (in your words)..."they have a chance. A good one? Maybe not. But a chance none the less."

If you swapped the 2 head coaches for this game, I'd agree that the Packers could keep it close. But with McCarthy on our sideline and not theirs... not so much.

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PackerAaron's picture

December 19, 2010 at 10:46 am

You sound just like all the people who said the Packers had "no chance" against the Cowboys last year. Or that they had "no chance" against the Jets this year. Glad they didn't listen to you then or now.

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jeremy's picture

December 19, 2010 at 11:02 am

I was hoping most of the fair weather fans followed Brett to Queensland.

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rickybobby's picture

December 19, 2010 at 11:07 am

forget it.
neither of us is going to change the other's mind so this is just silly.

thanks for the great site and for giving me a place to vent.

i apologize if i've upset anyone with my negativity.

i just had such high hopes for this season.

if rodgers was playing and mathews wasn't injured i'd be right on board with all you guys.

but he's not and he's not.

they have no playmakers right now. jennings doesn't count because he needs someone else to get him the ball in order to make plays. and our "someone" today (and probably the rest of the season) is matt. flynn.

let that sink in.

hope i'm wrong.

have fun watching the game everybody.

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ZeroTolerance's picture

December 19, 2010 at 12:33 pm

Why do non-fans come here?

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ZeroTolerance's picture

December 19, 2010 at 12:43 pm

If you think the season is lost, go follow College Basketball. See you next year.

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packsmack25's picture

December 19, 2010 at 10:44 am

I'm so excited for this game. It's going to be a great game, it will shut everyone up, and the Packers will be in the thick of the playoff race come Monday morning.

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ZeroTolerance's picture

December 19, 2010 at 12:36 pm

Packsmack - you have me pumped. I thought all was lost, but you brought me back. Thanks. And whatever happens, happens.

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maxginsberg's picture

December 19, 2010 at 11:55 am

Well done, Aaron. McCarthy is going to have bring his 'A' game today. Hopefully, the QB change will force him to find simpler ways to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers (much like losing J-Mike did).

The offense has to step up, but in my opinion, this game is about Dom Capers and the defense. The Packers' D (and special teams) will dictate the outcome of this game.

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ZeroTolerance's picture

December 19, 2010 at 12:40 pm

Keeping the ball for 22-25 min will help. I hope that the NE O does not get a hugh TOP. Our D will hold unless they're on the field for 40 min. Ball control is KEY. Move the sticks and don't try for the HR.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

December 19, 2010 at 12:32 pm

Good read Aaron.

And yes, the GBP can win this game. It's going to have to be called/executed dang near to perfection, but there is a chance. The Defense can't have a Playoff game repeat in this one, this can't be a shootout, but I think Flynn will put some points on the board. Starks should get 20 touches. Gotta take the air out of the ball and keep Brady off the field... small ball.

GBP - 27
pats - 24

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Tommyboy's picture

December 19, 2010 at 01:29 pm

On another note - does it really matter who wins the Giants/Eagles game? We NEED to beat the Giants no matter what. So, we'd hold tiebreakers over both. So...who am I rooting for in this one?

And go Detroit!

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Ruppert's picture

December 19, 2010 at 02:22 pm

You're rooting for the Eagles, dude. It will be a hell of a lot easier for us to make the playoffs if the Giants lose today. Go to that ESPN playoff machine and play around.

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jay's picture

December 19, 2010 at 03:42 pm

It seems to me that regardless of who wins between PHI and NYG, we need one of them to lose in wk 17 vs DAL and WAS, respectively, or PHI needs to lose to MIN next week.

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Ruppert's picture

December 19, 2010 at 03:48 pm

We can still get in somehow no matter who wins, but it would be a little easier, IMO, if the Giants would lose. Doesn't look like they are going to right now, though.

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packsmack25's picture

December 19, 2010 at 04:08 pm

LIONS WIN!!!! EAGLES DRIVING FOR THE TIE!!!!!

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packsmack25's picture

December 19, 2010 at 04:21 pm

OMG EAGLES WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm telling you guys! This is all going according to plan!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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packsmack25's picture

December 19, 2010 at 04:24 pm

Not to mention that was a debilitating loss for the Giants, they'll be reeling on the road in the cold next week.

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FootballGods's picture

December 19, 2010 at 04:41 pm

For all those who are saying the season is over, and didn’t watch the eagles game like it was our own playoff game (Desean Jackson, that was awesome), or may not know what happened in Tampa, should wonder.

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Jmac34's picture

December 19, 2010 at 04:49 pm

Thank you Detroit and Philadelphia esp Desean Jackson

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Pack66's picture

December 19, 2010 at 05:11 pm

hahahaha…man oh man, can’t WAIT to see the PACKERS get CREAMED TONight!!

You are all going to see what PERVETED UNCLE TED’s perverted philosophy of not using FREE AGENCY to get a COMPETENT, experienced, veteran, backup QB is going to get you!! Also, FAILING to get a competent RB when Grant went down!!

Hell, the OLD PERV should have grabbed Ryan Fitzpatrick when he was available, he’s tearing it up in Buffalo….

You PEOPLE deserve what you get…8-8…this year and 23-25 with Aaron, Uncle Perv, and no FAVRE..

yeee hooo…

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PackersRS's picture

December 19, 2010 at 07:00 pm

+100000

for the whole thing.

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Tommyboy's picture

December 19, 2010 at 06:23 pm

Easy Killer - most people have moved on from this argument. It's a little like a bar fight - the involved parties swung at each other a little, drew some blood, and now it's over. Not too long from now, they'll all be bellied up to the bar again. Don't be the hysterical woman in the corner who can't calm down.

...and most people can call it a draw, by the way. The last 3 years, both qbs played on talented teams, Favre went 26 - 18, Rodgers went 25-20. Favre missed the playoffs twice, the Packers missed the playoffs once, and may very well miss twice. Favre won one playoff game and choked in the next. Rodgers lost his one playoff game. No championships for either one. Favre had 65 tds and 47 ints, Rodgers had 81 tds and 30 ints. Head to head, they're 2-2. and again, no championships for either one.. Favre - age 41, Rodgers - 27....and do you want to call Thompson a perv? Cuz there's a response to that one, too, but I won't go into it now.

If anyone can look at that and pick out the clear winner, they're playing with their gut, not their brain.

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packsmack25's picture

December 19, 2010 at 06:39 pm

TommyBoy, he's a troll. Words and reason don't work.

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Tommyboy's picture

December 19, 2010 at 07:09 pm

packsmack - I actually don't think he's a troll. I frankly think he's "one of us." Seriously, I think by day, this guy is one of the regulars on this site. By night, he throws out stuff to watch idiots like me bite. There's no reason to throw the "perv" comment out there unless you're either that stupid, or just looking to stir the pot. I honestly don't think anyone is that stupid.

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Ruppert's picture

December 19, 2010 at 06:49 pm

I think you should use the word "perverted" more. Definitely.

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Packreds's picture

December 19, 2010 at 06:18 pm

Let's go Flynn
Line up, take our chance, what the f**k we got to lose!

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Ruppert's picture

December 19, 2010 at 06:58 pm

Okay, are the Packers going to sit a bunch of starters tonight?

I mean, we're in if we beat the Giants and Bears no matter what happens tonight. Next week is our must win. I think there is a pretty good argument for it.

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PackersRS's picture

December 19, 2010 at 07:01 pm

Tonight is our bye.

We still have a chance to win our bye.

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Tommyboy's picture

December 19, 2010 at 07:06 pm

First of all Ruppert - love the "pervert" comment above. LOLs all around.

Also, I had the same thought - this game suddenly has become nearly meaningless. It's not unreasonable to think the Bears lose to the Jets next week either. If we take the Giants, it's very possible we take the division regardless.

MM - please be careful with our starters and key players. We only have like 6 left anyway.

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Ruppert's picture

December 19, 2010 at 07:12 pm

I meant to aim the perv comment at Pack69, btw. It just ended up under your post.

And the more I think about it, the more I want to see a lot of guys sit tonight.

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Tommyboy's picture

December 19, 2010 at 07:17 pm

Ruppert - Oh, I completely understood that. Psh - I wouldn't offer a free round of LOLs if it was directed at me!

I honestly am just hoping for a good showing by Flynn. Win, lose, or draw, I hope he plays well. He's a good guy - you wanna root for guys like him.

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