Well written Gil, as always. You've taken all emotions and BS out of your review and have focused on the facts. this is the only way to view the whole "AR thing" and you've laid it out for us to easily understand. Thank you. GPG!

"But the fact is unless you have an extremely dominant defense and running game, it is nearly impossible to win a Super Bowl without a great quarterback."

I thought the defense was top10 and perhaps rated top 5 with the run game near par excellence, and a QB deemed to be the best ever.

And they lost not once, not twice, but three times in a row, with two being to the same team that many here claim would beat 9 out of 10 times while denying they lost 3 of the last 4 to that team.

How does this team stand up to the challenge when we just witnessed the beating of the best team the Packers have had since the last SB win in 2011?

I understand the thinking that "Less is More", works as a Cover Girl makeup slogan, but the less this team will field won't cover anything enough to believe an SB is a viable achievement for the Packers, even with Rodgers staying. The proof lies in the recent past failures, and longer if looked into, and would take an even bigger step up of some to think it better than a 25% chance to achieve prior levels of success, which are subject to much doubt, as to those seasons thoughts as successful.

Sure, building around an MVP/Future HOF QB is one strategy. The problem is in what you "build" for the rest of the team. So far we've seen a Top 5 offense and some pretty horrible (hi Mike Pettine) to meh defenses. I saw somewhere that the Patriots had a Top 10 defense every season except 1 (just missing though) when they won the Super Bowl. That last top 10 defense the Packers had, I believe, was the 2010 Championship season. Sure, TT was in the throws of dementia for the last few years while GM and Gute is trying to address the issue, but they still aren't their. I really would like to see more than stiffs standing next to Kenny Clark and they saw how important having a good ILB was last season, so let's see another, or 2. If they are going to throw money at DA for several years then they can go back to 2nd round/later WR picks and focus on some studs on Defense. It's plainly clear that even though Rodgers is still elite, he can't carry this team to the SB (we've seen enough since 2010). Will Gute and management just put bandaids on the defense or go about adding the necessary pieces. And, for the love of God, I don't want to hear Lancasters name associated with the Packers ever again, even if it's a notification that he was released, not signed, took a job as a Sentry bagger, nada.

If it results in a Super Bowl victory it will make sense. If it doesn’t, it may go down as the worst decision by a GM since Hadl, perhaps longer. As you say, this comes at an excruciatingly high future cost and relies on a cap massively focused on a few older players, something seldom successful due to health as well as the impact on the strength and depth of the remaining roster.

An alternative view might be that this suggests that they have no faith in their ability to use picks and a new QB to rebuild. Certainly the futility of the last couple of years wasn’t all on Rodgers, but nothing else has really changed either.

It’s ironic that you talk about a strong running attack and defense, because we had a strong running attack and failed to capitalize on it two years running and a very strong defensive performance in our last game. This year we could have bolstered the D further. We instead chose to retain Rodgers and Adams. Probably at the expense of Campbell and maybe Douglas. We will likely now be casting around for bargain receivers on offense too. Rookies are seldom big helps there.

This team isn’t going to be materially stronger this year. The STs should be better (finally), but that doesn’t explain how our O improves or how our D does. Our O took a noticeable step back last year and we won’t have Tonyan and need a cheap speedster (likely a mythical beast, if projections re. MVS are credible). Miracle drafts are fantasies not likelihoods.

So more of the same coaching and an older Rodgers with less experience around him. Adams and who? And the same play caller as HC. If that sounds like a good bet I suppose this is a defensible choice. Damned if I can make that sum add up though. And that’s assuming that Rodgers maintains his level of play and doesn’t revert to a couple of years ago or get injured or simply start to lose physical ability.

You call it a "calculated gamble". I call it "the biggest gamble in franchise history".

To contend for the Super Bowl, you have to make the playoffs, and that means you have to beat your division opponents, especially on your home field. That's all I'm going to focus on, because in the playoffs, all the teams are good and it can easily come down to a freak play, a bad call, an unlucky bounce, or just plain bad luck or injuries.

So all you can do is put the strongest team you can on the field for the season, with the best chance of winning the division. We're going to have Aaron Rodgers at QB, Jones and Dillon in the backfield, Adams and Lazard at the WR spots, a real good group of offensive linemen, and Lewis at TE, the unofficial 6th OL.

Plus....we might get somebody in the draft who can help us on offense. This SHOULD BE the best offense in the division this year, and one of the top offenses in the NFC.

There are questions on defense, starting with Douglas and Campbell. We're almost certainly going to need a 3rd guy in the edge rotation. We also need to replace Keke and try to upgrade on Lancaster.

But overall, this team is plenty good enough to win this division. Let's focus on that and see what the situation looks like on Thanksgiving.

Nobody has a bitch. Most; wanted to tear off the band Aid. And wreck the foundation that put us close. Rodgers is No gamble. Especially after two MVPs. The problem is the grass looks greener on the other side. You bought into Love. And thats your mistake. Rodgers gives us are best chance win. Gutey got this right. When you make a mistake. You correct it. The foundation is Rodgers. He makes everyone around him better. Thats all you need to see.

All this falls into the realm of 'if if and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas every day'.

Gute's theory is the Packers are closer to a Super Bowl with Rodgers than without. There is some sense to it.

But if the past holds true, they won't get there WITH Rodgers either. It seems the Packers can't put together a fully integrated team. They have the offense(except in the playoffs) . Up until this year the defense was so-so. The special teams sucked all the way back to the end of Mike Holmgren's time.

They will lose some players this off season either by cut or free agency. Those will be significant holes to fill. They will need to get lucky in signing some capable veterans and hitting it lucky through the draft.

While it's a nice security blanket to have around, who is going to play tight end if Tonyan leaves? Deguara isn't Tonyan. Campbell? Douglas is a capable starter at corner and likely to go. MVS and/or EQ. SB could be lost. Maybe a few others. The Packers don't have the cap space to sign them all.

My theory was logical rather than emotional. Better to bite the bullet this year and take the haul of picks from Denver. Let Adams go. This year would likely not result in the playoffs, but it would be a young team building for the future.

Now we're left with an aging QB, a receiver who wants more money in free agency and a number of holes caused by lack of cap space. Cap space will also be a problem in 2023 and less so in 2024.

I can't forget that on his home field in the playoffs, in perfect Packers weather conditions, Rodgers and the team came up short WITH the team they had. They won't have the same core next year. In 2023 they will have a salary cap issue AND likely be no closer to the Super Bowl.

I hope I'm wrong.

Gil, if Packers are looking for excellent season score through the season , I have little doubt they will be able to achieve it. But in the post season every player need to rise their level of play for at least one step, and that needs to happen for every game they have to play.

From 2011 SB, we saw that Packers HOF QB was not able to sustain that higher level in every post season games. First we were excusing him through bad D, or unexperience O, or injuries or whatever. I would like to mention one game in the post season in which I believe we can not blame Aaron Rodgers for playing under his season level - divisional rund vs Cardinals were he was playing more than well, but was left almost alone in that game (loss in OT). 2012 Giants, 2013 & 2014 Niners, 2015 Seattle, 2017 Falcons, 2020 Niners, 2021 Buccaneers & 2022 Niners was games where Aaron Rodgers was playing really bad, lot of under his season form.

Regarding HOF QB you need to have to win SB, I would like to remind you on 2 recent SB winners w/o HOF QB play - SB 50 were was very clear that Payton Manning was shadow of himself (had only 141 yards passing) and SB 52 were Nick Foles was Eagles QB.

So, 2 of last 10 (if we include Russel Wilson and Mathew Stafford in this equation there is 4 out of 10) SB won teams w/o HOFer at QB position. YOUR CLAIM IS NOT TRUE THAT TOGETHER WITH VERY GOOD TEAM YOU NEED HOF QB TO WIN SB. I show you that 40% of SB winners didn't have HOF QB at the helm.

So, justifying this Packers move to bring back AR, especially under the agreement that AR will have influence on GM and HC jobs by "advise" or "suggestions" for me is fail.

If the rumors about $200 millions are truth, for me that is serious negligence from FO regarding franchise. No matter how contract is structured.

My main observation is this. Are we gonna get an Aaron Rodgers who has one (Adams) or two (Adams) looks at who to throw to, or will we get a QB who realizes that Father Time is pushing that window further down and perhaps concedes that a different approach is needed to make this whole thing worth it. Will he chose to go for titles or go for personal stats while laughing his way to the bank. It’s very simple. If Rodgers “truly” buys in, spreads the ball around, checks down instead of chucking hero ball gliders into his double covered BFF, and allows himself to have the self awareness that this isn’t just about him, this extension and bringing him back will pay off huge!! If he’s all about himself and just wants to coast into retirement with awesome stats, then this will have been a very expensive lesson learned and a long rebuild. Christ! Rodgers is so fricken talented I just wish he could get out of the way of his own ego and play team football. Anyway. Have a great weekend Packer fans. I still have today through Saturday of work.

What nobody is addressing is whether the Packers win another SB with Rodgers, they are looking at a major decline in a few years. Rodgers will be gone, and the team will have to pay the bills they've been pushing down the road. Because they are playing with credit card money, and they are maxing out, hoping their lottery ticket will get them a big enough prize to make it worth it. They are effectively saddling Jordan Love (if he remains with the team) with a no-win scenario. He'd inherit a team that would have to shed multiple starters to get under the cap. And a lot of their cap money would be "dead". Think of Adrian Klemm coming back to play on the OL. Is it worth it?

The FOs course of action has all the makings of being a colossal failure this year - expecting a static team (from last year) - with a devolving QB - to be equal or better than teams like the Rams, Bengals, Bills, Cardinals, Chiefs etc. - is just magical thinking - not prudent management (see: John Schneider, Seattle). Unfortunately, this has been the management's m.o. for the last decade - to uphold the status quo - at the expense of necessary change and progress. The FO have shown that they are usually one year too late on major football decisions. I expect that this trend will continue for 2022/23.

No doubt Rodgers gives Packers better chance to win SB in 2022/2023.

If they win SB, it's will be a success.
If they don't, it will always be remembered as a failure.

History will judge if Gutey keeping Rodgers was as smart Thompson giving job to Rodgers over Favre.

This was a very well written article. I do have two points to make.

Unless we come back with the same type of defensive unit we had last yr or a secound target other than a running back or davante that rodgers will throw to then this just seems futile and a huge mistake by gutey.

While I believe he will do everything in his power to keep guys like canpbell douglass etc add talent.

Rodgers is gonna have to take ownership and trust all his receivers.

Gutey has done a better job than he gets credit for so Aaron is it more important to be an mvp or a superbowl champion

Been a Packer fan since 1958 and yes remember well the 70s and 80s. No matter how much we yap and speculate means nothing but fun for something to do. All that counts is next season and the results. Like Rodgers much, used to, but all the BS has gotten old. It does seem to be the correct thing to do for short run to keep him in house, but future costs to team is unknown and will be until Rodgers is long gone.

I would think that if you really want to win a Super Bowl it would help to have a QB that really wants to win one and not pad his stats and jones for individual records and MVPs. Also, it might help to have one that doesn’t choke in the playoffs every year. Gute, I hear Brady might be available. If you really want a Super Bowl, that is.

Well, they need to get into the SB first. I don't think the Diva can do it with Adams. They tried that, didn't work. I think the Packers made a huge mistake

Lets revisit this discussion at the end of next season. Will Rodgers ego get in the way of winning post season games again? If not, if GB goes all the way, or even doesn't but shows a strong competitive performance, it will only be if Rodgers does a complete 180 with his attitude. I don't see him doing that and I doubt anyone is delivering that message to him. He can't win the big game by himself but he can definitely lose it by ignoring the rest of the team.

I'm not buying it....Whenever it has been suggested that team is best served by moving on from Rodgers, some like to peddle rationales like "HOF QBs don't grow on trees", or "We're going back to the 1970's, etc." So if those QBs are so rare (I would argue that they less so given the current pass-friendly rules, anyway), then build that dominant running game and defense--does every Packers incarnation have to be reliant on a MVP-level QB to succeed? We've already had 30 years of it. And only two trophies; and trophies are what it's all about, especially when nearly half the teams now make the playoffs. Winning a historically weak division every year really doesn't mean that much.

Unfortunately at this point, the Packers have become a static organization seemingly afraid to move forward and build smartly for the future. Other than the marquee match-ups, the only real reasons to watch the team's regular season games are to monitor the special teams for signs of improvement and the (hopefully) continued progress of the defense. Other than that, the most efficient use of one's time is to just tune in for the playoffs.

Duplicate.

"But when you’re this close to a title for the last three years, it makes sense for the franchise to say the future is now."

Excellent, yet, I would've said, "The future of the Packers is as long as Aaron Rodgers decides to play... Then, we start a new future."

We are always fighting for the future. If we learn from the past, great, but our current future resides in the right arm of Aaron %'in Rodgers, until it doesn't.

Truly, I don't care how Russ Ball pays the guys, as long as they get paid. I really don't even care if we have some Cap trouble four or five years from now. (We'll get through it.)

Now that Aaron has committed to the Packers and the organization has committed to him, moving forward with an eye on the immediate future, as well as our long-term future, I expect the Packers to chase championships the next several years. Gutey has repeatedly said this is about Championships.

I believe that is what he's trying to do now. Can't wait to see his strategy in the draft!

It's always a risk to go with an aging quarterback at a huge salary; and it seems to me the deciding factor is whether that quarterback has shown high character coupled with outstanding results.
Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers has been sorely lacking in both character and results of late, including his enigmatic holdout last season for apparently no good reason in reality, only the delusions in his head.
That's why I hate the decision to keep Rodgers. It's not only a risk as far as physical decline, but also as far as a faulty character.
As a matter of venting and getting it out of my system, I can't emphasize enough how horrible is this decision to go with Rodgers.
***
Having said that, I'm hoping to find some way of enjoying the Packer next season.
It would help a lot to see some measure of significant change in Rodgers as far as being more cooperative with his bosses and more agreeable to fans.
One good thing may be for Rodgers to end his gig with Pat McAfee and generally avoid commenting on matters outside of his purview as a player.
For example, instead of Rodgers saying he wants to play or not to play in any particular meaningless game in the preseason or at the end of the regular season (e.g. the Lions game), it would be so much better if Rodgers would say that he wants to talk with his head coach about the best course of action as far as him playing or not playing. After listening to Rodgers, whatever LaFleur thinks is best is what our quarterback wants for himself and the team.
Is that so hard, Aaron? Doing it your way seems to have ended in heartbreak the past three season at least. Please, be coachable!
***
I want the Packers to win, and I want Rodgers to succeed as leader of the Pack.
I'm not asking Rodgers to change who he is, but to change to be the best version of himself.
Please, Aaron, a little humility, perhaps a smidgen of regret, perhaps some sign of approaching things differently, Also, maybe you could reach out to the fans a little more and focus on yourself a little less.
Help us to get behind you more, because even many of the fans who are glad to have you back are uncomfortable with your words and deeds in recent times.
We want to cheer for you without reservation, to give our hearts to you as well as our minds.
We'll be happier, and I think you'll be happier.
***
P.S. If you're near Atlanta, stop by to chat if you want. We can go out for a bourbon Manhattan and dinner, or whatever, in Woodstock, or wherever, pretty much whenever you want. I've been hard on you but not out of hatred. I care about all of our Packers players as persons. It'd be a pleasure to meet you if you are so inclined.
In any case, please consider that the people who disagree with you at times may be much more on your side than anyone who tells you only what you want to hear.

Thanks Gil for the thorough well thought out article. I think the NFL is changing somewhat. GM's are willing to be more aggressive and roll the dice more now with the whole quest for the Lombardi Trophy. Not sure how Ted Thompson's approach would do in this environment. I see what your saying, if you have a hall of fame QB still playing at an MVP level you squeeze as much juice from the orange as possible. For sure there are no guarantees, but it will be interesting how many of those draft picks that Seattle acquired turn out to be big gets. In the end, I will root for whomever is under center and playing for the Packers.

Pretty good analysis Gil - alot of which I have been saying. And people go and say that AR is declining????? 13-3 for 3 years in a row is declining??? And as I pointed out before - he has 3 years less on his body than Peyton, Favre, Brees, Rivers etc who all started while AR sat. So as he proved last year he can still sling it and move in the pocket. That despite last years 13 wins came with a revolving Oline due to injuries and losing an All pro center. I think that some of this lack of playoff performance last year and in certain games during the regular season needs to rest with both Lafleur and Gute. The new NFL has more motion sets that we had 2 years ago and that we didnt have much of last year. Finally if one analyzes MM's tour of duty - how long did he stick with Capers well after he should have been gone - and even the poor play of Pettine ( remember the lack of deep coverage when King let the guy get behind him twice in the Bucs win). I and nobody knows the details of AR's new contract and how it will affect team budgeting - nor what they will be doing with Adams - but if it is Cap friendly for at least 2 years - then that is 2 years to try and win the Superbowl with AR. If Love develops and shows something then Gute might be forgive - but when one looks at what he could have picked - offensively or defensively - Claypool Hamler Jefferson - as receivers or even rather than taking Dillon as our first real pick could have taken Taylor .
Now - not an AR fan especially last year's Covid thingy and the leak of draft day - same as wasnt a fan of Favre's retire not retire ( and especially his throwing up the ball ) But he gives us playoff games and you cant win the SB unless you get to the dance. And finally how can anybody ( especially Gute) think that you have found the next big best QB at pick 26 - when over the past 5 years guys in the top 5 usually dont pan out. Only one in many are the Mahommes - Darnold was a 3 - Rosen was a 10 - and the Packers really havent been good at drafting QB's outside of AR.

Sounds like Rodgers is committed to playing this the coming season, but is he committed to playing team ball for the Packers? Only he can answer that through his actions which speak louder than words. I would LOVE to see a Packer team that is known for it's stellar defense and running attack...a more physical brand. I think our offense plays better in warmer or climate controlled environments. That is why I wouldn't have minded if they had to play an away game or two in the playoffs (except for lost revenue in the Green Bay and surrounding area). Heck, sometimes before the past playoff games even started...I felt there was a strong chance we would lose by seeing Favre or Rodgers looking super cold and the opposing QB not nearly as much (or at least I didn't pick up on it). I would love our identity to be Defense and a run game....now, that would be refreshing to me! Always loved Chucky "bloody nose" Cecil. I know, the game has changed and I totally understand why. I am not scared of a rebuild and totally now was the time to do it..love our RBs (seem like salt if the earth good dudes) and our Defense is (was) on the uptick. I like the guy they hired to run ST and can't wait to see how that unfolds. I love the history of the Packers...even when they sucked 4/12, 4/12, 6/10, 6/10, 8/8,..it was Sunday's going to church, coming home for some lip smacking grilled food that mom and pops made and watching the Packers... lose. But, man what fun!!! Go Pack Go!

"Hall of Fame quarterbacks don’t grow on trees"...very true Gil. I will add opportunities to trade a HOF QB that isn't sure if he is able to commit to the team for some high draft picks and possible players while also helping your cap doesn't grow on trees either.

Chinese proverb: the best time to plant that tree was 25 years ago. The next best time is today.

Oh well, I understand both sides and appreciate everyone's opinion and their passion. >^••^<

On a side note, I love being creative with signs when I get to attend a Packer game at Lambeau. One that ALWAYs makes me laugh is when Favre supposedly texted a picture of his junk. The sign read something like this: No thanks for your pic Favre, I'd rather see Clay's sack.

What does a stolen vehicle and the Vikings have in common? No title

Okay, peace everyone and the draft is always something to look forward to...

"Afterall, Rodgers is the two-time reigning MVP of the league and is still playing at an elite level at the age of 38."

You know, I just do not care. MVP? Whatever. Yeah, he is good in the regular season. He hasn't been decent in the playoffs in quite a while.

And here is the thing, if the Packers have bent over backwards and kissed his ass to bring him back - including, perhaps especially, MLF - then why on earth do you think he is going to listen to MLF? This is the same guy who took the contract dig at MM after he got his last extension.

I'm trying really hard to withhold judgment until I see what the actual numbers on the contract are, because without that, it is really hard to say what kind of team the Packers can put around him. But I have to think the 2022 Packers are going to take a step backwards. I fear that Rodgers had his shot this year and blew it.

Since 2010,the packers have played as winners which they are. To be Champions that is another level, a sphere
Rodgers needs to start taking chances. Quit playing for the stats, the safe bets. You wanta be a champion or you want to settle for the easy money. So far the Packers talk big, "we are all in"," we are push all our chips to the center of the table".
Yeah right. Alot of talk. Brian G really get creative with the salary cap. Go get an Amari Rodgers from Dallas
You think Rodgers is going to throw to a first round Rookie. Dream on. Sign Z. The guy wants a championship. He's a champ. Yeah get him to play on an incentive laden contract. It did wonders for Preston.
We need someone as an equal to Rodgers. You tell me. I do want to be known as the feel good story. The team that won a lot of games and almost got to the SB but never did.
I do not know what contract #12 is going to sign. I thought Rodgers was going to take considerably less with a stipulation: "the Packers use the $$ on building a SB team. Maybe he'll reconsider. I hope so.
Cause I'll still be carrying the G

If we make it to the playoffs and the NFCCG; everyone MUST improve performance exponentially over prior year SF/49ers game. Specifically:
• OL pass blocking must improve significantly to reduce pressures on QB1,
• OL run blocking must improve significantly to enable AJ and/or AJD to gain >150 yards,
• QB 1 must take >90% checkdowns to move the chains on 3rd and 4,
• ST must not allow KO or Punt return yardage >20 yds,
• ST must execute on 100% FG and punts,
• If presented, D needs to stop 3rd and 8 on opposing team’s last possession,
• MLF needs to CEASE ALL cheerleading ACTIVITY and focus on adjusting throughout game

If above occurs, even average game by multi-million $$$ QB1 "DIVA" as Croat has affectionately called him has a modest impact because improved GB team performance will deliver a “W”.