It's my first post of the Green Bay Packers 2017 offseason and nearly a week later, I still don't know exactly what to say.  I'll start with that I'm going to keep on with the Rants & Raves theme for my Saturday piece so hopefully we get some good happenings that provide some good discussion content.  I'll probably pick a topic each week to focus on but for this week, it's going to be a long one.  A lot of initial thoughts and reactions to talk about.

Now, back to the Packers.  The debacle in Atlanta wasn't something that I saw coming.  It was also something I wasn't OK with.  Phrases like "they were lucky to be there in the first place", "they were playing with house money" and "what more could you expect with that defensive M*A*S*H unit?" don't resonate with me.  Any team that can get itself to a conference championship has a chance to earn a trip to a Super Bowl.  That also happens to be an annual goal of the Packers and their fans.  And they fell short.  I don't have to be OK with it.

I am OK, however, for those who were worried.  OK, I know, no one was.  But after going through all of the phases of dealing with the loss to the Falcons and the end of another Packers season, what other choice do we have than to look ahead to what next season might bring?  Here at CheeseheadTV, we have wasted no time talking about some of the hot topics that have already surfaced since Sunday: what changes will be made within the team, coaching staff, front office?  Will this team actually use free agency to add some big-time pieces?  Well, some of those questions seemed to be answered after head coach Mike McCarthy gave his season-ending press conference earlier this week.  Let's take a look at some of those topics and others mixed in that I have a feeling that we'll be discussing and debating all the way to opening day kickoff in September.

Rants

Changes?  We Don't Need No Stinking Changes. . .

Every season when the final seconds tick off the clock and the Packers are done, fans and media begin to speculate what changes might be abound in Green Bay.  That answer has varied in recent years, ranging from "absolutely nothing" to the addition of a big name player in Julius Peppers.  For those of you who are into stats or are actually statisticians, you might be more apt to believe in regression to the mean.  It means that the truth typically lies in the true average of what we have seen in the past.

For a few weeks now, we have been hearing about how some of the Packers personnel guys have been coveted by teams around the league for open general manager spots.  The biggest name has been Eliot Wolf.  Wolf has been largely rumored to be the guy who will eventually succeed Ted Thompson when Thompson steps down as current GM.  We were thrown a bit of a curve a few weeks ago when Wolf took an interview with the San Francisco 49ers and seemed to have an opportunity to take that job, if one were offered.  Wolf ultimately pulled out of consideration for the job, but this led to questions about what the Packers' plans were with regards to eventually replacing Thompson.  Would this outside interest in Wolf and Brian Gutekunst prompt the team to move on from Thompson and elevate one of them to take over?  During McCarthy's presser, he seemed to indicate that Thompson would be back next season.  That's all good and fine, but that's not McCarthy's decision to make and, it's still January.  A lot can change.

Assuming Ted is back, however, I have to say I'm not too optimistic that we're going to see a vastly different Packers team next season.  Offensively, that's just fine.  Defensively, it's the exact opposite.  I talked about regression to the mean and if Thompson thinks he's going to re load this team with a new stable of undrafted free agents and rookies then we can expect about what we've seen of late: 10 - 12 wins, a playoff appearance and an exit in the (insert name) round.  I'm not, as I like to say, falling for the banana in the tailpipe anymore.  Too many offseasons of hearing from trusted sources that the Packers are going to open up their wallets or finally dip into legitimate free agency only to see them do next-to-nothing have me jaded.  I'd say I'll believe it when I see it, but that would still indicate that my eyes are open and waiting.  Let's be real here.  As long as old powder hair is pushing the buttons and pulling the levers, this team is going to operate as it has for the better part of a decade.  Draft away, add talent afterwards and maybe grab a cheap cast off or two to plug in.  It hasn't worked since 2010 and it won't start working now, if you define "working" as getting this team to a Super Bowl.  Even if Thompson isn't stepping down from his GM post, it would be nice if the team mandated some additional brain trust be involved in the personnel acquisition.  That just doesn't seem to be how this team operates.

McCarthy also said that we can expect defensive coordinator Dom Capers back next season.  This one probably caused a few household items to get broken in various Packers fans homes around the globe.  Capers has long been a scapegoat for everything wrong with the team since 2011.  His defenses have largely been middle of the road or worse and haven't been given many impact players to add to the mix that did get the job done six years ago.  It's tough to replace guys like Charles Woodson and Nick Collins but the Packers haven't come close to adding a defensive player of that caliber since their last championship.  The jury is still out on whether safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix may turn into one but for a team that needs some home run hitters back there, Thompson has struggled to make solid contact.  Many argue that young players can't thrive in Capers' scheme because it's too complicated and requires a longer learning curve, which rookies simply don't have when they're having to play regular snaps.  I don't know how much stock I put into that idea.  It may be true but these are guys who are the top football players on earth.  There's a reason they got to that level and with the exception of only a few, there is a good football IQ involved.  Former Packers have come out and talked about how they liked playing in Capers' scheme and how well he prepares for games.  It didn't appear as though that was the case on Sunday in Atlanta but sometimes the guys on the other side are just on another planet.  I'm talking about you, Julio Jones.  Not making excuses, but the defense alone didn't blow that game.  

I've been vocal about wanting the Packers to move on from Capers.  I still think they should.  Ask me who would replace him and I don't have an answer for you.  I just think this team needs some freshness to it that may help light a fire or recharge the room.  More than that, Thompson needs to go out and find himself some dogs.  Some flat-out dogs on the defensive side of the ball.  Guys who play angry, who make plays regardless of whether the scheme is right, the play call is right or even if they're out of position.  Defense in the NFL is an attitude.  The Packers need more of it.  More guys like Mike Daniels, Letroy Guion, Datone Jones, Clinton-Dix.  Coaches can draw it up all week long.  It's players who do it.  The Packers need the right kind of players.  Green Bay will be picking late in the round this year due to how they finished 2016.  They'll have to be strategic about how they add talent with so many of the top impact players already gone by the time they pick in the draft.  They have some up and coming young players who will certainly figure on next year's team.  Guys like Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins.  This team needs more attitude.  They have to change it up in terms of what they're looking for.  They don't just need athletes to mold into football players.  They need football players to be football players.

Some discussion has started about linebacker Clay Matthews and whether the team will ask him to take a pay cut next year or possibly release him.  Another conversation has been whether the Packers don't permanently move him inside where he has been able to make an impact and stay healthier in seasons past.  This story will certainly develop as the offseason moves along.  Pass rush was an area that the Packers struggled with in the postseason.  Matthews was largely ineffective as was Nick Perry after his hand injury that forced him to wear a club cast.  If Matthews does move inside, the Packers need more rushers.  Kyler Fackrell did anything but instill confidence that he is any type of answer on the outside.  He may survive into next season, but he's a role player and special teams contributor at best.  In a draft class said to be rich with pass rushers, the Packers need to consider multiple picks in that area.  This could also be where the team may look to free agency, depending on who is available at the time.  Again, if Thompson is calling the shots, no one is getting signed unless it's for a cap-friendly deal and probably a B level or below type player.  This area needs to be addressed, however.  Let's assume the Packers re sign Perry, Jones and Jayrone Elliott.  If they think they can trot out a combination of those three with a potential draft pick and make the defense suddenly potent, I'm here to tell you it won't be.  Football players playing football.  That's what the Packers need.  Dogs.  Woof!

I mentioned cornerbacks Randall and Rollins earlier.  After this past season, I don't think we can put all of the blame for their sub par play on injury alone.  It surely played a role, but truly good players find a way to play well.  Neither of these two were consistent at all.  If I'm Thompson, I assume that what we saw in 2016 is the best we'll get from these two and act accordingly.  Sam Shields is done in Green Bay.  He may not be done playing, but the Packers are done with him, folks.  He spent the entire season away from the team in Florida.  That doesn't scream that the team wants to keep him in their plans.  The Packers need at least one, if not two corners who can step in and play right away next year.  LaDarius Gunter, cheers to you for stepping in and doing what you could this season, but you're not what we're looking for.  I'd love to see Gunter back for depth, but he can't start 16 games on the outside.  If there is one position where the Packers need to keep an eye on the waiver wire, it's corner.  Good corners don't grow on trees and they're hard to get in free agency without spending some money.  But it also happens to be an area where not having the right players can destroy a season.  We can go through a list of free agents to be at corner right now, but that will change quickly and more names will be added to the list so just stay tuned in this area and as free agency approaches.  If not there, this may need to be priority number one come draft day.

That's a lot to digest.  There will be more to add as time goes on but I look forward to seeing more discussion around here about what the Packers might and actually end up doing between now and next season.

Raves

Don't Cry Because It's Over, Smile Because It Happened. . .

I already said that I am not among those who are simply content to have seen the Packers rattle off eight straight games and reach a conference title, one step further than last year.  I was as disappointed as I could be in how last week's game played out.  That said, this past season was not a failure.  No, it wasn't (for those who just said "yes it was!").  As often as the New England Patriots are in a conference championship and appearing in a Super Bowl, there are seasons mixed in there where they don't get there.  And they have yet to win two straight since 2003 and 2004.  It's hard to get to Super Bowls.  It's hard to win Super Bowls.  It just is.  Some are tired of hearing about the Patriots and point to the fact that they cheat and bend rules to get where they do.  Honestly, the Packers need to take notes.  I'm not condoning cheating but if there are small ways to gain an advantage and the league isn't going to scoff at it, do it.  

I'm one who points to New England and says that even though they are the only example of a team that enjoys more regular success than the Packers, they prove that it can be done.  Therefore, the Packers need to push harder, strive further, to do it.  To get there.  To finish the deal.  Aaron Rodgers called for the team to "re load a bit" and come back ready to go next season.  That doesn't mean overhaul the roster but the moves the Packers make from this point forth are going to be scrutinized more and more.  Rodgers is 33 years old.  He certainly has some good years of football left in him but he's not a 27 year old who just came off of his first championship anymore.  There is no magic formula for how many championships a quarterback should have in order to be in the "greatest of all time" argument or to have won enough to fully satisfy his fan base.  But after watching Brett Favre leave the game with just the one championship win and only two Super Bowl appearances, Packers fans can't help but revisit that feeling of "there should be more" when it comes to Rodgers.  Fortunately, Rodgers will be around for a while so there are more seasons of what should be top-notch quarterback play on our TV's to come.

While we talked about the defense and how they've come up short in recent seasons, we can also look to some areas that have helped sustain the success the team has seen and laud Thompson and the Packers for keeping those areas strong.  Wide receiver and offensive line come to mind.  We saw two teams who had great potential fall apart this season because their offensive lines were either decimated by injury (Minnesota Vikings) or they didn't allocate the means to keep a strong unit together (Seattle Seahawks).  We can be thankful that the Packers have a solid line and one that has enough youth to maintain good continuity.  The team will have a decision to make on veteran guard T.J. Lang but can count on more good years of Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Taylor and Linsley.  They should come into 2017 still owning one of the better lines in the game and along with Rodgers, that should mean the offense will do good things.  

At receiver, the return of Jordy Nelson proved big and the emergence of Davante Adams was a catalyst for some big offensive performances.  Nelson continues to age but should hit the ground running next year and won't need a six game warm up like this season after returning from ACL surgery.  We have to assume Adams continues to be what he was in 2016.  The Packers could add another pass catcher or two in the draft.  Geronimo Allison should continue to develop and be a part of the offense and toss in Randall Cobb and this corps can still do big things together.  Tight end Jared Cook may be back next season and many want the team to re-sign him.  I'd be OK with that move but the deep ball down the seam never seemed to develop this past season.  Does Cook have the speed to be that guy?  Would it be worth for the Packers to try and add an impact tight end early in the draft?  That remains to be seen but Cook is starting to age and I wouldn't count on him being the deep ball threat that we hoped we were getting when he was signed last year.

Either way, the offense looks to be in good shape next year whether they bring everyone back or not.  Besides Lang, guard/center J.C. Tretter is a pending free agent and his health will play a factor into whether he's back in Green Bay.  Don Barclay's days as a Packers need to be over so look for some offensive line depth to be added one way or another.

The last bit of good news is that in just over a week's time, everyone is 0-0 again.  While I already showed my hand in what I expect for next season, I'm willing to see what the Packers do and reserve the right to change my tune.  Hopefully you will too but chime in below with your early thoughts.