Packers blogger Marques Eversoll lays out a scenario that makes a lot of sense for the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins.
It includes placing the franchise tag on quarterback Matt Flynn and trading him along with the 28th pick in the first round to the Miami Dolphins for the eighth pick overall.
Though the list of Flynn’s potential suitors features probably three to six teams, the most likely fit is with former Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin and the Miami Dolphins.
On Friday morning, Miami won a coin flip with Carolina to win the 8th overall pick. According to the draft trade value chart, the 8th pick is worth 1400 points and the 28th pick is worth 660 points. Assuming the Packers and Dolphins swapped first round picks, Matt Flynn would need to carry a “740 point value” in the eyes of Miami for the trade to appear even according to the chart. A value of 740 points is equivalent to the 24th overall selection in the draft. Whether or not a team would be willing to trade its first round draft pick for Flynn, 24th or even later, remains to be seen. However, no matter what the aforementioned chart may say, it would make some sense for Miami to go through with the trade.
If you’re Miami and you truly want to acquire Flynn, you face a couple questions: would you be better off keeping your first and second round picks, still facing a question mark at QB - or - would you rather execute the suggested trade with the Packers, in which you’d address your need at QB, keep your second round pick, and still have a selection in the first round, albeit 20 picks later? Assuming Flynn gives Miami a level of stability that the Dolphins haven’t seen from their recent Quarterbacks, the price of moving down just 20 spots in the round one seems like a bargain in exchange for a starting QB.
This would appear to be a win-win scenario as long as the Dolphins are truly interested in having Flynn as their starting quarterback.
So what would prevent it from happening?
First of all, the Dolphins, or any other team, aren’t going to be willing to pay Flynn the same amount of money as the franchise tag is worth. He would have to agree to a restructured contract before any such trade could take place.
That’s probably not much of a stumbling block, however. Flynn very likely just wants an opportunity to become a starter in the NFL and would just as likely agree to a lesser contract for that to happen, within reason. And playing in a familiar offense with Philbin running the show only helps matters.
Another obstacle could be how much interest the Dolphins have in joining the Peyton Manning sweepstakes. If they’re serious about Manning, they might choose to pass on Flynn. But there’s risks in signing an aging Manning with big-time injury questions as well.
One final hurdle might be the push back from the NFL that suggests the franchise tag is only to be used for retaining players. But that hasn’t stopped the Packers from doing the nearly the same thing by tagging and trading defensive lineman Corey Williams to the Cleveland Browns in 2008.
The trade by the Arizona Cardinals for Kevin Kolb a year ago is very likely giving the Dolphins cause for concern, but there’s equal risk in not properly addressing the quarterback position at all.
There’s no guarantee they’ve got what it takes to move up in the first round to get Robert Griffin, and selecting any quarterback after Griffin and Andrew Luck comes with as many questions as answers.
From the perspective of the Packers, the trade appears similar benefits. With the eighth pick, they could probably have their pick of the best defensive player in Draft outside of Morris Claiborne and perhaps Quinton Coples, but Coples doesn’t provide much value to the Packers defense anyway.
The Packers could very well have their choice of any defensive lineman or outside linebacker barring a trade by another team to get ahead of them.
If such a trade were to happen, the clock is ticking. The deadline to place the franchise tag on a player is Monday Mar. 5.