Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers: The Debate Continues
By Brian Carriveau on Jul 11, 2012 with 36 Comments
Last week I wrote a column for Bleacher Report titled “Aaron Rodgers Isn’t More Clutch Than Brett Favre, but He Will Be Soon.”
As the title suggests, I don’t deny Favre’s track record of late-game heroics: 45 career game-winning drives and 30 comeback wins, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
In the column, and you can read for yourself, I choose to define “clutch” in different way, and look at how well Rodgers does in specific situations, namely 1) versus the blitz, 2) on third downs, 3) in the playoffs and 4) in the red zone.
In a follow up to the column, I asked the fine folks at STATS for the career passer ratings for both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in those defined situations. Without further comment, here they are for your viewing pleasure…
Aaron Rodgers career passer rating:
· Vs. the blitz: 108.6
· On third downs: 110.0
· In the playoffs: 105.5
· In the red zone: 106.3
Brett Favre career passer rating:
· Vs. the blitz: 80.5
· On third downs: 85.4
· In the playoffs: 86.3
· In the red zone: 93.3
Filed Under: Aaron Rodgers • Brett Favre • Packers News
I think those stats are far more telling than “comeback wins.”
Rodgers doesn’t have a ton of comeback wins because often times he plays so well for the first 58 minutes that he’s not trailing come crunch time. And that’s somehow a knock on him? It makes no sense.
I think people (especially certain ESPN asshats) put way too much stock into this amorphous idea of “clutch.”
*which are all points you make in your BR story. Next time I’ll the linked article first.
Brian, I think it would be helpful to also show Favre’s and Rodger’s career passer ratings in general to get a more complete picture. Do Favre’s ratings go down or up from his career passer rating in these situations? I know I could look up that stat pretty easily, but it would be nice to include in the comparison.
I wonder if this is statistacially significant. Favre has a much larger body of work. Remember – statistics are like a bikini – what’s revealed is interesting, that’s concealed is vital.
It’s less about statistical significance and more about making it an apples-to-apples comparison, especially with the ‘comebacks’. Out of there first (pulls random number out) 50 opportunities to win a game with whatever criteria you deem a ‘comeback’ how many times did each player succeed? You can’t look at gross, or really even some percentages without making both sample sizes equal. Brett Favre through 50 games, Rodgers through 50 games.
Exactly – look at Flynn’s numbers last year in a very limited sampling – and I would argue that nobody would put him in Favre’s or Rodger’s catagory.
Favre gave away way too many games for him to be considered clutch. Many experts believe if AR started in the 2007 NFC title game the packers would have won. Favre simply cannot hold Rodgers jock.
It may have even been enough if AR had played the 2nd half of that game. Obviously, BF was not into that game at all (too cold for him). A younger, fresher, faster QB at the time (AR) would have pulled that game out for GB (IMO). I blame MM for not making the switch from BF to AR. MM didn’t quite have the gonads to mess with the ‘great one’.
This is ridiculous. you’re either 15 and dont remember the ‘great ones’ 3 mvp seasons, SB victory, incredible comebacks or just stupid. favre wasnt into it? too cold?? good god you’re a disgrace to every packer fan out there. yep, put in the guy- 12 year olds were giving the middle finger before a PRESEASON game: ya Rodgers would have no pressure and do just fine in the NFC championship game. brilliant.
Awesome comment. I had not heard this expert opinion.
Very interesting stats, but lets stop comparing these two ad nauseum.
Brett was great QB and a thrill to watch him fly by the seat of his pants.
Aaron is our QB and a master of the game.
Did people compare Young to Montana for 5 years after he took over? No, as soon as Young won his Super Bowl, I think the comparisons stopped.
Over/under for comments on this post because it has the name of a jackass in the title? I’m gonna say 70. It’s the offseason.
We need ARod to throw more picks early in the game so the Pack are down in the forth quarter. Then throw into tight coverage and hope your guy wins the battle. Now that’s clutch. ARod actually gets penalized for putting his team well ahead in the fourth. That alone gives you an idea why Rob Reischel and the others who harp on this issue use a faulty premise to begin with. It also doesn’t take into account your D giving back a late game leading drive.
I doubt that stat exists, but I would love to see a stat on how many ‘interceptable balls’ out of each QB’s first 1000 attempts were thrown (errant passes that should have resulted in turnover).
That, to me, is the biggest difference between Rodgers and any QB I’ve seen in the last decade, he just doesn’t give a defense the opportunities to even get a turnover. As good as Brees and Brady were last year they still had multiple games where the defense clearly had an opportunity for a turnover and failed to capitalize.
I feel like I’ve seen this stat before – the dropped interception stat. I feel like Bill Barnwell of Grantland uses it a lot when using past performance to try and predict future outcomes.
Let me see if I can dig any references to it up.
FO does an “Adjusted Interceptions” stat, so I’d be willing to guess they have the capability of looking up such information. How far back they can go, though, is the question.
http://www.footballoutsiders.c.....ions-2011/
Yeah, that’s a great chart (and I think that’s what I was thinking of too, Aaron Schatz on the BS Report). They go back to 2007, it says.
It’s also great that they subtract INTs that were tipped up in the air by a receiver as well as Hail Mary INTs.
Rodgers had ZERO dropped INTs last year and two were actually tipped. So, 4 INTs in 500 pass attempts. Simply amazing.
The guy that does the advanced stats for ESPN and sometimes writes ridiculous things based on bad assumptions has a stat that shows bad decisions. I think his name is K.C. Joyner? Haven’t read him since they put him behind the “insider” wall, but I know he used to keep track of it.
Here’s a good one: http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.....free-pass/
I think Rodgers will throw as many Td passes in his career as Favre did (granted he can stay healthy), without throwing half the intrceptions Favre did. Clutch? Who cares? Favre’s gunslinging (while fun to watch) cost the pack as many games as it won. That’s why I take Rodgers every day over Favre
Farve is one of the last QB’s I’d want playing in a BIG game. Quite simply, the bigger the game the worst he played. I’ve often said he’s one of the best regular season qb’s ever, he sucked for the most part in “big” games.
That’s what made him a perfect Viking.
Burt just gifted too many “lasers” and games for me to take this “debate” seriously. #12 definitely lacks one HUGE trait Burt had… Carelessness with the pigskin. Rodgers protects that thing like it no other. When Burt was in his prime he was very good and I loved the guy, but he gave too many big games away, broke my heart too many times.
AARON>burt in every way. Including off the field.
GBP 4 LIFE
What a shame – the Pack has been blessed with two great qbs and all people want to do is to diss Favre. Go to the Packer HOF and he is there – but if you all don’t stop your hate – he won’t retire as a Packer. Is that what you really want? For many years he brought pleasure and at the end he brought pain. His pick in the NFC game was preceded by Bush not recovering a fumble; McCarthy winning the toss and going into the wind; and Driver not going to the ball.
And don’t forget – TT not picking up the greatest receiver, Randy Moss.
You are the worst kind of Packer fan. Or are you a Jet or Viking fan? The team is bigger than him. He never understood that, and still doesn’t. And he doesn’t give two shits about you or any other fan.
So the Favre’s reconciliation with the organization is dependent on dissenting fans no longer being critical of Favre and hurting his feelings? We just need to pacify his ego?
Didn’t Favre’s decent into megalomania start with the likes of Harlan, Rhodes and Sherman pacifying his ego and crossing the management/player line with preferential treatment? Remember when that was a definitive line between he and Holmgren back in the day when Favre was anything but a gunslinger? Only after reading his own press clippings did self identify as a gunslinger and begin the better part of a reckless decade playing below his ability.
Any rational fan needs to recognize his flaws in conjunction with his greatness. Even when Favre does come back into the fold there’s nothing he can do to alter my view of his character.
Right. I remember the games he went into hurt, but sucking it up – and at THAT time, I knew without him playing we’d have NO CHANCE to win.
I tired of his I me mine crap at the end, but will never forget watching him play.
Don’t know about the “NO CHANCE” to win Zero. I thought QB’s such as Hasselbeck and Brunell could have been successful in GB given the chance. The reason he sucked it up was more about him not wanting to crack the window the tiniest bit open for his understudy. That is how he got his chance when Majkowski got hurt.
His longevity streak had more to do with his insecurities than his toughness.
I honestly couldn’t care less if Favre retires as a Packer or not.
Actually, isn’t he already officially retired?
“For many years he brought pleasure and at the end he brought pain.”
Robert, had you stopped right there, you might have had more success in your argument. Alas, you chose to go down the “everyone else is responsible for the NFC Championship loss but Favre” route. That kinds of puts you in a disdainful category.
Shut up Bob. Thanks, everyone.
“Driver not going to the ball” – may possibly be the dumbest thing written on CHTV. And that, my friend, is a serious accomplishment.
Robert, I have to agree with packmack25 you are the worst type of Packer fan, a Favre apologist. His final pick in GB was no ones fault but his own. Packer fans as whole will never completely agree on the Favre situation, but no matter how people feel about him, he will no doubt retire a Packer. However I do not feel he deserves to have his number retired or be placed along side the other greats inside Lambeau following the way he left Green Bay, and his desire to stick it to the Pack any way possible.
As for the debate on Rodgers and Favre, I would take Rodgers any day. At this point Favre is probably still the greatest QB in Packer history, but ARod is the best QB that has ever wore the green and gold. Rodgers is well on his way to becoming the greatest QB in franchise history by putting up the numbers he has in his first 4 years and winning a ring, a second ring will cement his place.
I guess we are in the worst part of the off season because this debate keeps popping up. Rodgers= 1 Super Bowl Ring.
Brent= 1 Super Bowl Ring.
When Aaron gets #2 will this stop? I hope so and I have a feeling he gets it this season, Go Pack Go!
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Oohhhhh Brett. WHY???? WWWWHHHHYYYYYYY???
That’s all I got for this debate.