Green Bay Packers 2016 Season Odds Analysis

The earliest odds for winning Super Bowl LI are out -- and the Green Bay Packers are sitting at 10/1 at a major online sportsbook, just behind the co-favorites (Pittsburgh, Seattle and New England) who have 8/1 odds. Carolina and Arizona also have 10/1 odds. Let’s take a look at why the Packers are viewed as having such a good chance to make it to next year’s title game -- and why they might be overrated.

 

The NFC North is Pretty Soft.

It’s true that Green Bay didn’t win their division last year, thanks to the rise of the Minnesota Vikings (and the collapse of the Green Bay offense down the stretch). However, Detroit was wildly inconsistent, and Chicago was its usual woeful self. Yes, the Bears won at Lambeau, but overall, their season was mostly one of frustration. Detroit won at Lambeau too, but their stupefying defensive scheme against the Packers’ Hail Mary pass at the end of their meeting in Detroit ended up sending the game the Packers’ way. So even though the Packers did not play that well in their divisional games, they still went 3-3. If they played more consistently against Detroit and Chicago, that would have been 6-2.

 

Clay Matthews is a Force to be Reckoned with.

As long as you are playing the Green Bay Packers, your offense has to figure out what to do with the whirling dervish of a linebacker. He harasses quarterbacks, he covers tight ends, he chases down running backs, all as part of the havoc that he can wreak. He can make plays that stop drives for the opposition, putting the ball back in the hands of Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of whom…

 

No Game is Out of Reach when Aaron Rodgers is at the Helm.

It’s true that the Arizona Cardinals delivered a rout to the Green Bay Packers during the regular season. When the two teams met again in the divisional round of the playoffs, though, Green Bay sent the game to overtime on the strength of two bombs on the same drive -- one on 4th and 20 from inside the Packers’ 20. Aaron Rodgers might have the strongest arm in the NFL, and his mobility means that he can find the time to get separation from the pass rush and find a receiver down the field. Time and time again, he led the Packers down the field in crunch time. This was true even though the Packers’ offense had a lot of problems this season. If the off-season brings solutions, the Packers should be in the league’s elite next season.

However…

The Minnesota Vikings aren’t going away. If they had made that field goal to knock out Seattle and gotten to face the Arizona Cardinals the next week, it’s hard to say that the Vikings wouldn’t have gone to the NFC Championship, based on the way they played this season. Green Bay has some major holes to fill, and the exposure they showed last season on both sides of the ball calls for some re-tooling. So 10/1? Those odds sound based more on the franchise’s name and reputation than their realities heading into next season.

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Comments (14)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 10, 2016 at 12:52 am

I don't think we went 4-4 in our divisional games. We only play 6 divisional games, right?

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JerseyAl's picture

February 10, 2016 at 07:47 am

yep - I'll change it...

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Packer_Pete's picture

February 10, 2016 at 05:26 am

We went 3-3 in our divisional games. Lost all at home, won all on the road.
Went 3-1 against AFC. 7-5 against NFC, meaning 4-2 in NFC games outside the NFC North.

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Evan's picture

February 10, 2016 at 07:56 am

"The Minnesota Vikings aren’t going away. "

Similar things were said about the Lions this time last year. Just sayin'

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

February 10, 2016 at 09:15 am

There is a significant difference in the level of Coaching between the Lions and Vikings.

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Evan's picture

February 10, 2016 at 09:29 am

Perhaps. I'm just saying, the league is full of one-year wonders who come crashing back to earth. Happens every single year. I want to see some sustained success before I anoint any team as "not going away."

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dobber's picture

February 10, 2016 at 12:33 pm

I would argue that there was a difference in talent...Detroit clearly had a better roster 18 months ago than Minnesota does now.

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Bearmeat's picture

February 10, 2016 at 01:06 pm

Yep

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Razer's picture

February 10, 2016 at 09:48 am

The Vikings are young, talented with good coaching. This year was no fluke. The young has them living under the big contracts - for the time being. We will need to work for every game in this division.

The Lions are the mystery team. They should be doing better but seem to trip over themselves. If Calvin retires, they step back otherwise, they are capable of challenging for the top spot. Should be a dogfight next year.

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Lphill's picture

February 10, 2016 at 11:14 am

As long as the Vikings have Adrian Peterson they won't be a threat , he comes up small in big games . It's amazing that he is still in the NFL after what he did to his own child.

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Bearmeat's picture

February 10, 2016 at 12:19 pm

The Vikings defense is for real, but their offense is not. I will wait to anoint them as "not going away" until I see a consistent performance from their quarterback for more than 4 games in a row. Heck I would settle for more than one game in a row. He is frankly, not good in the middle and deep aspects of the passing game. You add to that that their best offensive player by far is on the wrong side of 30 at position that ages notoriously quickly.

We underachieved this year worse than any year since 2005. And still barely lost the division. The Vikings do not worry me going forward. The NFC North belongs to Green Bay until Aaron Rodgers retires. This year was a fluke.

No, it's not the division championship that worries me going forward, it's winning another Super Bowl or two before our Hall of Fame quarterback retires.

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Since'61's picture

February 10, 2016 at 01:37 pm

TT should go all in this year. He should sign FAs Von Miller and Antonio Gates. I know it won't happen and I'm not saying to abandon draft and develop but can we get some actual NFL players to get us over the hump.
Miller and Gates take care of our defense and TE. Then we can draft 2-3 OLs to rebuild the OL over the next 2-3 seasons, take a WR, a DL, an RB and an ILB in whatever order based on the players available. Maybe with our supplemental picks we take another LB or DL. At least if we sign some NFL players via FA maybe our guys can develop while we win an SB or two. We're not getting there with the likes of R. Rodgers, Dropvante Adams, Nick Perry and Mike Neal. Thanks, Since '61

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 10, 2016 at 02:37 pm

I honestly see no way that Miller makes it to free agency. They will likely franchise him before he would become a free agent.

But I am with you with Gates. He is a guy that could come in and be our #2 TE. He doesn't have to be a starting TE. He would instantly add something to our passing game.

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Since'61's picture

February 10, 2016 at 03:58 pm

RC - I agree, I doubt Miller gets to FA as well. And if he did I doubt that TT would put up the $ required to get him. If not Miller maybe an ILB or another FA edge rusher. Gates is perfect because he is a legit TE threat and he gets a real shot at an SB will the Packers. Again, does TT pull the trigger like Ron Wolf did to get Keith Jackson? Thanks, Since '61

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