Green and Bold: Who Will Win the NFC North?

The NFC North title looks to feature a battle between the Packers and Vikings once again.

The NFC North title looks to feature a battle between the Packers and Vikings once again.

Last week, the four ESPN NFC North reporters engaged in a Q&A about which teams from the division would make the playoffs in the 2016-17 season, and which team specifically would win the NFC North title. 

I thought it was worth weighing in on that discussion as we approach the opening of Packers training camp, to set a barometer for the upcoming year (yes, before a snap of football has even been played—the horror!) and have something to which to come back and compare Green Bay's performance later in the year. 

All four ESPN reporters concluded that two teams in the NFC North would make it to the playoffs: the Packers and the Vikings.

Packers reporter Rob Demovsky, Bears reporter Jeff Dickerson, and Vikings reporter Ben Goessling all think the Packers will make it in with a top-four seed, and that the Vikings would be entering as a wild-card team.

Lions reporter Michael Rothstein made a bold claim that he thinks the Vikings "are the best team in the NFC," but appeared to stop short of crowning them the prospective division winners. Still, one can make the assumption that the best team in the NFC would win its own division. 

I, too, agree that the Packers will most likely win the NFC North, but I don't think the Vikings will be far behind, and I certainly think that one of the two head-to-head matchups in Week 2 and Week 16 will be the deciding factor in what could otherwise prove to be nearly identical records (10-6? 11-5?).

However, at this point in time—again, before a snap of 2016 football has been played—I'm not sure I would say the Packers or the Vikings are the cream of the NFC crop. I'd make the argument that Arizona, which added Chandler Jones this offseason, or Carolina, which gets Kelvin Benjamin back, has an edge over either NFC North squad. 

Of course, these assumptions and predictions exist based on a limited and most likely outdated collection of information. This includes mainly the product the Packers put on the field in the 2015-16 playoffs and the new players they added in free agency and through the draft this offseason. 

There are any number of variables that can affect how the competition in the NFC North shakes out this season.

A starter could become injured in training camp (sometimes it feels like that's a given!). 

Jared Cook could become the difference-maker in the seam and the short-to-intermediate game the offense has been missing...or he could fail in a big way. 

Eddie Lacy, given his recent improvements in conditioning and weight management, could more closely resemble the rookie running back who burst onto the scene for 1,000-plus yards and 11 touchdowns...or he could lose the starting job. 

In terms of the Vikings, that defense could be the league's best in 2016, and go a long way toward determining how many wins Minnesota comes away from regular-season play with. On the other side of the ball, even running back Adrian Peterson's most average season is still one many of the NFL's starting running backs can only dream about having. 

But there's no question that the X factor the Packers have that neither the Vikings nor most, if any, of the other teams in the NFL have is Aaron Rodgers. Though a lot of components factor into Rodgers' success, not the least of which include his offensive line play and the quality of his pass-catchers, for all intents and purposes the Packers will rise and fall on Rodgers' arm in 2016. 

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Comments (32)

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TKWorldWide's picture

July 20, 2016 at 06:31 am

The Packers of Green Bay.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 20, 2016 at 09:34 am

If we're on the same page here - this is my laugh of the morning. Classic!

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TKWorldWide's picture

July 20, 2016 at 06:02 pm

We often are.

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NickPerry's picture

July 20, 2016 at 06:53 am

The last time the Vikings went 10-6 was 2012 and they followed it up with 5-10-1. The time before that was 2009 when they had Brett Favre and went 12-4 and followed that season up with 6-10. With that said I believe this Vikings Team is a little different than those, but I'm not sure by how much. There's still questions about Bridgewater. It's hard to win consistent when you don't throw the ball father than 5 yards. Peterson's time is coming to an end and it's coming sooner rather than later. If it's as soon as this season the Vikings will follow suit with the 2009 and 2012 seasons, great defense or not.

The Packers Receivers will start to resemble the bunch that was on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Lacy will have his best season as a Packer and Rodgers wins his 3rd MVP. I believe we see a motivated Rodgers this season, maybe more so than earlier in his career. There's been too much bashing of him this past year for him NOT to respond.

The Defense will finally play at a level close to the Offense (Last year excluded, they played better than Offense). The Offense will win them most games early in the season until the youngsters on the Defense catch up. Martinez will receive DROY votes, he'll be that good and the secondary will be a Top 5 unit, the defense a Top 7. The whole team stays healthy this season for the most part and prove they ARE the "Cream of the crop in the NFC". Matter of fact the Packers are so great they open up the 2017 season on Thursday Night at home and hang Championship Banner #14.

That's my Prediction!

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Bearmeat's picture

July 20, 2016 at 10:27 am

Now that is what I call optimism!

I think GB gets a top 2 seed with a 12-4 or better record. I think the offense is going to score 500. I think the Vikings are a one trick pony on offense that will be exposed as the one dimensional good but not great team that they truly are this year. I don't think they'll be better than 10-6. And I think it'll only get worse for them as they have to go to the QB well again and AP ages. I think the Bears are improved, but a year away - and more if Cutty does a Cutty. The Lions will suck.

I do think GB wins the division going away.

I do think AZ and CAR will regress. Their performances last year were outliers. I do think SEA and GB are the cream of the crop in the NFL.

BUT I am concerned with the lack of top end proven talent on the front 7 of this defense. I am concerned that GB won't be able to stop the run, nor will they be able to defend the mid range throw between the safeties and linebackers.

If they get those two things to average or better, this is the best team in the NFL. If not, it'll be another frustrating/heartbreaking January.

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dobber's picture

July 20, 2016 at 09:40 am

"I do think AZ and CAR will regress. "

I think it will be hard for them not to regress. Carson Palmer had a season last year where he was healthy all year, which he hasn't done much in recent history. At his age and with his track record, the odds are against him doing it again. All the stars aligned for Carolina last season...they played a remarkably weak schedule against the NFC East and AFC South, and their own division was poor. This year they draw the AFC/NFC West, which is a big step up in comparison.

" I am concerned that GB won't be able to stop the run, "

One of the best ways to defend the run is to score. If teams feel like they've got to hang 30 against you to win, they aren't going to run all that much. And if they think they're going to shorten games with the run, well, they can see how well that worked against the Packers in 2014. Again, the key is that the offense needs to score.

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NickPerry's picture

July 21, 2016 at 05:54 am

I agree...If this Offense gets rolling again like 2014, and I believe they will, teams will get caught up in trying to stay with the Packers, especially at Home. The "Flood Gates' can open very quickly and before a team can say "What Happened", the score is 28-0 with 10 minutes left in the 2nd quarter.

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Tundraboy's picture

July 20, 2016 at 10:57 am

Hey why not!

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Handsback's picture

July 20, 2016 at 07:22 am

I also think the Pack wins it all this year. Teams need to focus on the prize and this year's team seem to be very focused. They have two strengths that I think will make the difference.
First a WR group that's fast and deep.
Second they have a defensive backfield that has talent and deep.
Injuries can and will play a part but right now they will be hard to best.

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Since'61's picture

July 20, 2016 at 08:24 am

The Packers have the best roster in their division and they should win the NFC North. Whether they actually do win the division will come down to whether they stay healthy, especially on offense and if the offense gets back on track. We have the best QB, a solid OL, an effective running attack if Lacy returns to form and an excellent receiving corps if everyone is healthy. The big questions marks are the DL and the ILBs, as usual. The defense does not need to be great but they need to make stops when the Packers have a lead and get the ball back to Rodgers so he can build up the lead. They also need to make stops in the 4th quarter of close games. The early bye could hurt but we play our toughest opponents (Seattle, Dallas, NYG and Indy) all at home this season. I see no reason why a healthy Packers squad should not win the division this season. As for the playoffs, seeding and who we draw will be factors, especially if we face a "hot" team at playoff time. We have seen just about everything in the playoffs since 2007, I'm confident that we will see another SB this season. Go Pack Go ! Thanks, Since '61

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 20, 2016 at 09:48 am

I agree with your statement that the Pack SHOULD win the NFC North, but it's going to come down to who's more healthy (between the Pack & Vikes). I'm not quick to write off the Vikings like most here because their Offense is viewed as average. That Defense alone could win an NFC North Title and fuel a hell of a Playoff run.

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Bearmeat's picture

July 20, 2016 at 10:45 am

No. It can't. That defense doesn't have playmakers all across the board like the Broncos did last year, nor like the Ravens did in 2000, nor like the Seahawks/Niners in 2012. Defenses like that come around once or twice a decade.

For evidence:

1. Linval Joseph was one of the best interior DL in the NFL last year. He was not a priority free agent and was not anywhere near that productive over YEARS with NYG. So, is he likely to maintain or regress? The latter I'd think. And don't even get me started on the sub-par impact of Shariff Floyd.

2. No WOLB that is any good at all. Greenway was done years ago.

3. Their FS position is a dumpster fire.

4. Their CBs have collectively played 5 good games as a unit. I'm not ready to crown them the legion of boom part 2.

5. Barr can rush the passer. But can Everson Griffen maintain his productivity? And Brian Robinson is very shortly going to go the way of Jared Allen.

They've got a very good defense. But it's not elite. I'd take their defense over ours, but not by a country mile like you make it sound. In other words, when you combine their good but not great defense with their bad but not awful offense, I see an 8-8 to 10-6 team.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 20, 2016 at 11:51 am

Why are you comparing them to other teams (especially outside of the division)? I never once said the Vikings had a great defense. I'm not building them up to sound like anything. It's a good strong Defense that is carrying the team. The proof is in the numbers and on the film.

Let's not make this into a pro-Vikings thread vs the rest of CHTV (yall are going to make me look like a Vikings fan) because I can already see where this is going. I like their Defense. Their Defense is young, talented and are only getting better.

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Bearmeat's picture

July 20, 2016 at 12:27 pm

Yes their D is young, talented, Improving and currently carrying the team. But my comparison to all time great defenses stands. Simply because without a passing game, that is how good they are going to have to become on defense if they want to be a legitimate title contender like Green Bay is.

Green Bay is a balanced team. Minny is not.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 20, 2016 at 12:50 pm

But no one is suggesting the Vikings Defense is great. That doesn't mean they can't win the NFC North and/or make a serious Playoff run. Being a legitimate contender means nothing. That's just taking the Top 5 teams on a Power Rankings list, which changes from week-to-week.

Yes, the Packers are more balanced than the Vikings.

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Bearmeat's picture

July 20, 2016 at 01:03 pm

I guess that's my point though. GB is a legitimate title contender. So, barring injury, Minny is going to have to get MASSIVE help from its passing game to have a chance at beating GB (flukes like last year aside) in the NFCN.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 20, 2016 at 01:15 pm

And that's why I agreed with 61 with my initial post. It all comes down to who's the healthiest down the stretch. The Pack should (keyword) win the NFCN. I'm not saying the Vikings are going to win the NFCN when I praise their Defense. I'm simply saying they are a threat and it's not going to be a cakewalk like most here think. If they weren't threats we wouldn't be talking about them (like the Bears and Lions).

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Bearmeat's picture

July 20, 2016 at 01:47 pm

Fair.

I'm not saying I don't think they're a threat. They are if a number of things roll their direction. It's just that I don't see a 1 dimensional team really competing with us (or other true title contenders). I don't think we'll blow them out, but I do think we'll win the NFCN by 2-3 games.

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marpag1's picture

July 20, 2016 at 05:06 pm

I would agree that the Minny defense was actually a bit overrated last year. They're good. They're not great.

The one statistic that MIN was good at was scoring average, which is admittedly an extremely important one. They ranked #5 in the league.

But teams moved the ball on them both running and passing, and Minny was definitely not great at takeaways. Here are some regular season numbers from last year's "great" Minnesota defense.

RUSHING
Yards per game - 17th (109)
Yards per carry - 21st (4.3)

PASSING
Yards per game - 12th (235)
Yards per attempt - 16th (7.2)

TOTAL YARDS - 13th (344)

SACKS - 7th (43)

INTs - Tied for 17th (13)

FORCED FUM - Tied for 25th

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DrealynWilliams's picture

July 20, 2016 at 05:32 pm

Yep. Overrated. What was I thinking.

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Tundraboy's picture

July 20, 2016 at 10:17 pm

Vikings are kind of like Jets, poorer version. Good Defense with a running game.

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PETER MAIZ's picture

July 20, 2016 at 02:56 pm

Very good comment, since 61. Even so, Rodgers needs Cook as a good target and the talent of Jordy and Cobb. Naturally, Lacy has to work into the equation. But the Packers have to revive their threat with the pass. Beyond Jordy and Cobb (and now Cook) there is little experience at the WR position. You saw what happened last year. It was shocking and dismaying.

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stockholder's picture

July 20, 2016 at 01:52 pm

This is one season the packers have a bad schedule. The Bye is to early. They have to win their first eight games. And should. The must win is to beat the Vikings in game #2. 5 of their last 8 games are on the road and against very good teams. The Bears and detroit will be looking to spoil. My feeling is the Packers go 12-4. The Vikings 11 -5. Both will be in the playoffs. They must beat the vikings.

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dobber's picture

July 20, 2016 at 06:48 pm

"The must win is to beat the Vikings in game #2. 5 of their last 8 games are on the road and against very good teams."

Granted, no road game is a gimme, but as it looks right now, the hardest part of the second half of the season is at home (vs. Hou, vs. Sea, vs. Min). The road games (at Ten, at Was, at Phi, at Chi, at Det) are all winnable, and that should be when this team is really hitting its stride if its really a contender. I think those first 8 games will be more difficult than the last 8. On paper, right now, this does not look like a terribly daunting schedule. We'll have to see what players emerge, who gets hurt, and so on to really know what this schedule means.

They have to win their first 8 games? The Vikes is a must-win? I don't think any week 2 game is ever a "must-win". A 6-2 or even 5-3 start should be just fine for this team and this schedule.

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PETER MAIZ's picture

July 20, 2016 at 02:39 pm

I would like to suggest that Mike Zimmer is a great defensive mind. What he has done with the Vikings in three years is very impressive.
Nevertheless, the Packers defense is improving every year. The O-line is rated one of the best. So Michelle has hit it on the head. Can Cook be competent and above average? Will Jordy come back and have the exceptional talent he had before the injury?
Obviously, Bridgwater is no Rodgers. But Cook best be the solution at TE for Rodgers to have that option. Once you go past Jordy and Cobb, there is just no experienced talent at WR.

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Flow49's picture

July 20, 2016 at 06:28 pm

I'm pretty sure the packers lost all the home division games last year and still were in contention for the north. That doesn't happen again packers take the north

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4thand1's picture

July 20, 2016 at 09:21 pm

They also won all road div games.

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dobber's picture

July 21, 2016 at 03:23 pm

How many of those home division games were they in position to win in the final minute, but didn't pull out? They could have easily been at least two wins better last year, even with the offensive issues...

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

July 22, 2016 at 07:52 am

@Dobber: GB could have been 2 games worse as well.

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dobber's picture

July 23, 2016 at 05:18 am

Shhh! Ixnay on the ealityray!

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sheppercheeser's picture

July 25, 2016 at 05:06 am

IMHO, yes, the Packers win their division but do not win the NFC crown. Either the Giants, Cards or Seahawks won't let that happen.

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dobber's picture

July 25, 2016 at 09:21 am

The Giants?

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