In my previous articles, I outlined the Packers current salary cap space.  To summarize, I had the Packers $10.964M over the salary cap limit which comes into effect on March 13.  Since then, the NFL announced that the salary cap limit will be $255.4M instead of the previously projected $242M, a gain of $13.4M.  Tom Peleserro also just reported that the Packers had restructured Rashan Gary to generate $4.781M in additional cap space.  Those two announcements mean that the Packers are currently $7.216M under the cap.  They need do nothing else prior to the start of the new league year, and that is good because it allows the Packers to explore trades, use June Designations on releases, and to see who is available in the free agent market and at what price.

I also previously calculated that the Packers would be $28.441M over the cap for week one of the season (after the expenses of the draft, PS, Piggy Bank, 52nd and 53rd player contracts are added in).  With the higher cap limit and the Gary restructure, the Packers still need to generate $10.26M in cap savings prior to the start of the season.  [Ken Ingalls believes the Packers are $11.529M over the cap for the beginning of the season - I am assuming he did not include the Gary restructure savings.]

A word on the Gary restructure.  The Packers reduced his base salary from the scheduled $1.3M to $1.125M and converted the difference ($175K) plus all of his $6.2M roster bonus to a signing bonus to generate $4.78M.  They did not add a void year so the signing bonus is divided over 4 seasons rather than 5 years.  Therefore, it is not a max void year restructure, just a simple restructure into the existing years on the contract.  My belief is that the Packers viewed Gary as the "safest" player to restructure.  He is still young, he is unlikely to be a cut candidate over the next four seasons, and he has been a hard worker and a good teammate.  

AMOUNT NEEDED: $11M Or So - Amount Desired: $28M to $33M More

The Packers thus need roughly $11M by the start of the season and then a substantial amount to sign their own free agents and some outside free agents.  My own view is that the goal should be $28M to $33M more at a minimum (numbers which I don't expect to age well) such that the Packers have $14M to $17M to spend on free agents after Love's cap number increases by $3M or so due to his upcoming extension.  That is not based on cap wizardry, just a simple seat-of-the-pants calculation.  I think the team needs two free agents who can be plus starters.  Perhaps one is a safety who signs for $9M AAV and a player at some other position who gets $11M, a total of $20M.  The first year cap numbers used by the Packers have often been between 50% and 70% of AAV on multi-year contracts going back at least a decade.  [Those with long memories will remember  TT signing Julius Peppers for $8.67M AAV and assigning a $3.5M first-year cap number of just $3.5M, or $40% of AAV.]  Anyway, those two big free agents might have first-year cap numbers that total $12M (60% of $20M), leaving the Packers $2M to $5M to sign some smaller free agents.  

That said, there is nothing wrong with being fiscally conservative and deciding that the Packers should be frugal in order to get their cap situation fixed completely in time for the 2025 season, something Jersey Al alluded to in his last Confessions of a Polluted Mind article.  Maybe there should be just one significant free agent signing rather than two.  That's a matter of philosophy and one's evaluation of the team's chances in 2024.  I underestimated the 2023 team, but I see multiple holes on the 2024 team.  Then again, I was not impressed by the Chiefs or the 49ers: it seems to me that the Packers can compete with the best.

GENERATING CAP: 

Campbell:  After March 13, I expect the team to release Devondre Campbell with a June designation (teams can't use the June designation until the new league year starts) to gain another $10.57M or so (leaving $7.91M dead in 2025).  Of course, the Packers could use a straight release to gain $2.60M, with no dead.  Choosing the latter option would be the fiscally conservative option.  I suspect that Campbell and the Packers will part ways, but no matter what happens, I expect to get some cap savings here.

Aaron Jones: Everyone expects to get some cap savings from Jones.  Many expect a pay cut, though I would nix a straight pay cut if I were Jones' agent.  However, Jones appears to love Green Bay so perhaps something in the $3M to $5M range is possible.  Jones is due $11M in cash.  I think he can get $7M or $8M on the open market with some more guaranteed money in 2025 if the Packers cut him.  I see no reason to take a straight pay cut for just one year - he will just be older with more miles on him when he become a free agent in 2025.  An extension is more likely. 

Kenny Clark:  I do not expect Clark to play on his current contract.  His cap number is $27.49M and he is due $17M in cash.  Clark is well-loved by fans, but frankly while he has remained a good player he hasn't been worth $17M for at least 3 years.  He is on the last year of his contract (though he has 3 void years).  The Packers will want to reduce his cap number by $5M or so, but I think an extension is the only viable method of getting cap savings.  I should think at extension at $14M to $15M AAV would be reasonable.  It might be a little dicey suggesting that the extension should represent a pay cut over his current contract, but perhaps they can bridge the gap with incentives.

Elgton Jenkins:  I would prefer to leave his contract relatively untouched.  He has not been playing like the second-highest paid guard in the NFL, though that might be due to injuries.  He is due $9.7M in cash.  Perhaps a modest restructure to free up $3M.

Jaire Alexander:  Ditto.  Jaire is due $16.0M in cash.  I would not do much with his contract.

Preston Smith:  Ditto.  Smith is due $12.4M in cash.  I would not do much with his contract at age 32.

Bakhtiari:   The elephant in the room.  A straight release with no 2025 dead money generates $20.935M in cap savings and provides an easy path to getting to the desired amount.  $20.9M from Bakh, $10.57M from Campbell (($31.5M so far), $4M from Jones since they are going to do that in almost all realistic scenarios puts the team in that $35.5M generated area.  Even if they do a straight release on Campbell to eliminate the $7.91M dead in 2025, the team would still be at $27.6M in cap generation, and could get the rest from Jones, Clark, Alexander, and Smith.  

Four months will have passed since Bakh's November 8 surgery by the time the new league year starts.  It will have been 7 months by the time of the mandatory mini-camp, and almost 9 months by training camp and 10 months by the start of the season.  Can he pass a physical by any of those dates?  Can he suit up for a pre-season game and prove he can play?  I assume that Bakhtiari will have to give some team a prove-it year contract, why not Green Bay, where he can prove it on the grass of Lambeau Field?  Maybe they can get a draft pick for him.  I assume the Packers will just release him, probably early, bu they have options.   

Here is a look at what cutting the six highest-paid players (other than Campbell and Bakhtiari) plus Royce Newman.  Most of them them would be major surprises or even ludicrous, but Preston Smith would not be a total shock as some people have suggested that he is not a great fit in Hafly's 4-3 scheme.

RELEASES/TRADES:

I listed Clark mostly because of the size of cap savings.  I confess that I am not as big of a fan of Clark as most.  I recognize he is still a quality player but his days of being elite or even high quality ended in 2019.  However, with $17M in cap relief, the Packers could sign a better defensive lineman in free agency.  The problem is that the post-June release would leave $13.747M in dead money for 2025.  OTC has this nice table of cap savings.  Just be careful using it because not all of the relevant information is presented, as highlighted by their entry for Clark.  Yes, Clark's cap savings would be $17M because $10.49M in dead money (his 2024 SB proration) would be deducted from his scheduled $27.49M cap number, but no where does OTC tell the reader that there would be $13.749M in dead money in 2025 as well.  Use OTC's table with care.

Cutting Royce Newman saves $2.8M.  I previous indicated that I thought the Packers would not release Newman until training camp or at least until after the find out whether they drafted multiple offensive linemen.  I do not advocate for that: I would cut Newman tomorrow because I think he is Byron-Bell-bad.  As a note, cutting him saves $2.8M but since he is one of the top 51 players, a player making $795K would count under the rule of 51.  Indeed, all of the cap savings I showed above for cut or traded players would net $795K less than shown in the table.  

I also noted some trade scenarios.   Jones could be traded or Post-June released if the two parties could not reach an agreement that lowers his 2024 cap number from $17.028 to $12M or so.  Maybe the Packers will want more than $5M in cap savings, or Jones wouldn't take a pay cut or add a void year.  Clark could also be traded, but Clark and arguably Jones are overpaid, so the acquiring team would look askance at paying Clark $17M in cash or Jones $11M in cash.  Green Bay still might get a day three pick for Jones or for Clark.  Smith could also be traded if he is not deemed to be a fit for the new defense, and at $12.4M, he has a healthy salary to swallow for the acquiring team but it isn't wholly out of line. 

MAX VOID YEAR RESTRUCTURES:

Here is a look at using Maximum Void Year Restructures (MVYR) on those six players, with the 2024 cap savings noted first, followed by the player's new cap number for each year in the future and the dead money when the void year hits in parenthesis.  Note that MVYR require the consent of the player because it requires at least one extra void year and sometimes several.

[Gary* - this is what actually happened.  I used a 5-year void (1.275M prorations) in the table above but the Packers did not add a void year, so the actual proration were $1.593M over 4 years.

Otherwise, I think any cap moves come from extensions, primarily from Clark, Jones, and Bakhtiari, while the extension for Love probably increases his cap number.  I think Bakhtiari gets released, but if he accept a $5M base with loads of incentives all based on snaps played, the Packers could wait to see how his recovery plays out and still sign two nice free agents.  I will take a look at how possible extensions for Love and the others might look.  The largest increase in the cap in NFL history has given the Packers a few options. 

Photo courtesy of Dan Powers, USA Today Network