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ESPN's Barnwell: Packers Build Up Most "Draft Capital"

The ESPN writer Bill Barnwell has an interesting take on Ted Thompson's organizational philosophy. 

I really liked this from Bill Barnwell over at ESPN, on how compensatory picks reflect which teams "know what they're doing" and how teams can build up something called "draft capital." 

From Barnwell:

With the draft order in mind, we can figure out which teams have the most and least to work with on draft day in terms of available capital, given their picks and what each pick is worth. The pick values come from Chase Stuart's draft value chart, which uses historical estimates of value to place an expected return on each of the first 224 selections in a given draft. The information is essentially what you would think: The teams selecting at the top of the draft have the most draft capital and the ones at the bottom of each round have the least. You don't need an estimate to figure that one out.

What's far more interesting here is figuring out which teams have done the most to accrue or give away capital heading into the draft, because that often provides insight into how general managers are trying to build their teams. To figure that out, I rebuild the draft order by removing all the compensatory picks, returning any selections voided by the league to their original teams, and undo any trades involving draft picks. Each team ends up with their original seven picks. I calculate the draft capital they would have held with those seven picks, compare it to their actual draft assets heading into April's draft, and find the difference between the two.

No surprise that sitting atop Barnwell's list of teams with the most "draft capital added" we find none other than our Green Bay Packers. 

1. Green Bay Packers

Original draft capital: 36.5 points
Actual draft capital: 42.5 points
Difference: 6.0 points (16.4 percent)

Atop the leaderboard, though, is a team that Ted Thompson rebuilt on a bed of extra draft picks. The Packers generally treat their picks as a precious resource and rarely invest in free agency, and while that may anger some more shortsighted Packers fans, it leaves the Packers with one of the league's more perennially stacked rosters. Green Bay has kept its seven picks and added a pair of fourth-rounders for losing cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Davon Housein free agency. Recent Packers fourth-rounders have included rotation linebacker Jake Ryan and starting left tackle David Bakhtiari, so these picks wield more power in Thompson's hands than they do in most.

Obviously, that last part is a bit simplisitc, but overall I liked the excercise and thought Packers fans would enjoy Bill's take. 

 

 

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Comments (36)

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Mebrooks5291's picture

March 15, 2016 at 01:08 pm

doesn't mean squat if they can't win a playoff game

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 15, 2016 at 01:09 pm

Packers beat Washington, and went into OT against the Cardinals.

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Mebrooks5291's picture

March 15, 2016 at 01:56 pm

still can win a playoff game

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 15, 2016 at 02:16 pm

?

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Oppy's picture

March 15, 2016 at 04:55 pm

I want to frame this post and hang it on my LOLZ wall

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 16, 2016 at 07:46 am

posts like this... cause me to drink.

People really can't be this dumb can they?

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John Curwen's picture

March 30, 2016 at 07:47 am

Unfortunately, yes, they are.

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4EVER's picture

March 15, 2016 at 07:05 pm

Yepper, Patriots beat Kansas City, and gave Denver a game for the most part. Yet the Patriots came in last on this capital counter thinger ma bob! Crunching numbers adds up but rarely correlates to reality...

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John Curwen's picture

March 30, 2016 at 07:48 am

different philosophy. Works for New England, rebuild through free agency and the draft.

For the packers philosophy to work, we need to be number one in this category.

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Channon Christian's picture

April 04, 2016 at 05:08 pm

The Packers have made it to ONE Super Bowl in Ted Thompson's 12-year career and he's had HOF QB play every year.

In Tom Brady career, he's made SIX Super Bowls, winning 4 and losing 2 heartbreakers to the damn flukey Giants.

I'll take NE's method of adding depth all thru the roster via smart free agents versus Teddy drafting Terrell Mannings and Jeron McMillians and Jerel Worthy's with his early picks.

I trust NFL film more than Big Ten or ACC film. I don't even know what film there was of McMillian at Maine.

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 15, 2016 at 01:09 pm

Thompson has become a master at this. Like him or not, he has done a masterful job at this.

From what they lost to what they gained Thompson definitely improved.
They lost both Williams and House, and I would argue they upgraded with the selections of Randall and Rollins. Also they gained 2 4th round draft picks this year for losing them.

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 15, 2016 at 01:23 pm

Obtaining capital, draft picks in this case, is a quality to be praised but the reinvestment and growth from that is the more desired for a Draft and Develop franchise/theory to success.

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PackerAaron's picture

March 15, 2016 at 01:36 pm

Like re-signing guys like Cobb, Bulaga and Daniels. Couldn't agree more.

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 15, 2016 at 02:52 pm

I made no remark about any player but simply what is needed for a philosophy as D & to succeed imo. However, I do think the development part until last season's draft to date has been lacking far more than can be endured.

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marpag1's picture

March 15, 2016 at 05:25 pm

Every time I read one of Taryn's posts I ask, "I wonder what language she used to speak when she was growing up...."

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 15, 2016 at 07:18 pm

Coherent.....unless read by the severely biased.

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packsmack's picture

March 15, 2016 at 01:40 pm

Barnwell is hands-down the best football writer out there. This is just more proof.

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Handsback's picture

March 15, 2016 at 02:44 pm

This is the second time today that I've seen Bill Barnwell's name on an article and before today...I've never heard of him. Not saying good or bad, just haven't heard of him before.

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packsmack's picture

March 15, 2016 at 03:51 pm

You've been missing out. He's a great writer, period, but fantastic when it comes to football.

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Evan's picture

March 15, 2016 at 04:03 pm

He's super smart and analytical, but I do find him pretty dry and dense to read.

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packsmack's picture

March 15, 2016 at 04:27 pm

That's a natural byproduct of his stats-based stuff, but his other stuff is less of a slog. And his weight loss piece was beautiful.

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Evan's picture

March 15, 2016 at 04:36 pm

True.

And thanks for reminding me about his weight-loss piece. I saw that when it came out but never actually read it. Been meaning to dig it up.

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AgrippaLII's picture

March 15, 2016 at 03:13 pm

What puts Ted ahead of other GM's ? He sticks to his plan...and it works! Look around the league at how many teams have hit the Panic Button and are selling out the future success of the franchise by signing FA's to ridiculous contracts...and providing additional draft picks to their competition. Ted knows how to play both sides of Free Agency. Packer Nation is lucky to have him as GM...and ye of shortsightedness cure yourself with a dab of common sense if you have any!

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4thand1's picture

March 15, 2016 at 05:31 pm

So now your calling AR a franchise QB? Make up your simple mind, you said he has no arm. you suck

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marpag1's picture

March 15, 2016 at 05:36 pm

Dude, he's a cow. He's done pretty well for a cow already.

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ray nichkee's picture

March 15, 2016 at 06:16 pm

He's a cows ass.

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zeke's picture

March 16, 2016 at 01:59 am

Not to mention being surpassed by Colin Kaepernick, who revolutionised the QB position if memory serves.

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holmesmd's picture

March 16, 2016 at 07:44 am

And no legs...lol. SMH

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 16, 2016 at 05:16 am

The five teams with the most draft capital added:
Balt., Rams, 49ers, Denver, GB: W/L 39-41 (48.75%)

The five teams with the most draft capital lost:
Miami, Pitts, Atlanta, KC, NE: W/L 47-33 (58.75%).

And Barnwell is using this stat to suggest adding draft capital is the better way???

To the extent that this article and its rankings purports to predict NFL success, it is nearly useless. The primary reason is that it is a 1 year snapshot: it does not provide any evidence of an organization's philosophy over a period or years or whether that philosophy has been successful, or if this snapshot year was due to aberrations. Second, some teams traded a player for a pick: the pick is included in the teams capital as an asset but the loss of the player's services is not included in the calculus. Third, the author should have adjusted the rankings and removed NE, and KC from the most capital lost category because they are on it only due to NFL penalties for deflategate and tampering, which in my mind are aberrations and not philosophy. He should have added NO and Indy to the most capital lost category. With Indy and NO instead of NE and KC, the teams with the most capital lost would have a record of 39-41, the exact same record as the 5 teams with the most draft capitol gained.

[Full disclosure: But for the loss of its 1st round pick, NE (12-4) would have been tied with Balt (5-11) for 5th most capital gained.]

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 16, 2016 at 06:10 am

Barnwell's stats show that 12 teams got comp pick points. Those 12 teams have a total record of 93-99.

12-4 Denver: 9.0
5-11 Ravens: 7.5
10-6 GreenB: 6.9
3-13 Browns: 6.8
12-4 Patriots: 6.7
7-9 Detroit: 6.2
5-11 49ers: 6.2
4-12 Dallas: 4.6
8-8 Buffalo: 3.5
13-3 Cards: 1.9
4-12 charger 1.7
10-6 Steelers 0.9

Cut if off at 6.2? The record is them is 54-58. There is little evidence here that teams with a lot of comp picks are more successful.

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Since'61's picture

March 16, 2016 at 09:56 am

Whether we call it comp picks, draft capital or what I think that we all realize that TT has done an overall excellent job in building the Packers via the draft. To me that is not in dispute. The issue with TT is his failure to supplement his draft efforts to meet his teams needs such as most recently, TE and ILB. TT could have used F A very reasonably this season to fill TE and ILB needs. Then concentrate his draft capital on DL, OL, WR and RB depth. Now with Raji bailing he needs NT, TE and ILB in the draft unless he makes a move in F A. Thanks, Since '61

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 16, 2016 at 10:25 am

Yeah, i agree with this.

I would like it if Thompson would supplement needs with Free Agency more.

For example this year. If he were to sign Cook, that would fill a need at TE. If he were to go and get for example Terrance Knighton, that would fill the need at NT.

Those types of moves would allow him to draft more purely the best player available. Not having to find certain positions of need.

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4EVER's picture

March 16, 2016 at 04:43 pm

Bingo...

Thanks Since '61, for framing the elephant in the room so eloquently. TT's failure or unwillingness to supplement draft efforts (misses) is mind-boggling insane. And that his job of building threw the draft and not spending idiot money on top tier FA is bang on...

Thanks, RC, for pointing out indirectly the most basic principle of building via the draft is selecting the BPA and not self-inflicted selections of need.

No more discussion required.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 17, 2016 at 08:41 am

Well said. I'd be fine with protecting comp picks by only signing guys who were cut. Failing to plug a hole by bringing in someone negatively affects TT's ability to draft BPA.

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Pack12's picture

March 17, 2016 at 10:32 am

Totally agree. It doesn't always have to be my way or the highway. Having a little flexibility in philosophy by signing the players you mentioned makes all the sense in the world.

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sheppercheeser's picture

March 24, 2016 at 04:36 am

I was as anxious as anybody for TT to sign Cook- great size and speed- let's go! Then I read that he has bad hands, is a poor blocker and has temperament issues - the first two are necessary tools and the third is a detriment to be successful. Oh well, he was worth a look.

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