Deep Breath
By Aaron Nagler on Nov 10, 2009 with 49 Comments
Sorry for the extended hiatus yesterday and today. Life can sometimes intrude…
Actually, in hindsight, it’s probably for the best that I wasn’t able to post yesterday. I would not have been much better than the commenters over at JSOnline. I was truly full of bile and ready for the entire Packers organization to be burned to the ground.
I’m a BIT more level-headed today.
First of all, yes, Mike McCarthy deserves to be fired for the way his team has performed the last two weeks. However, that won’t be happening, at least not anytime soon. Mark Murphy is right when he says that a lot can happen in the next eight games. And Matt Bowen is right when he says that the team is one or two weeks away from shutting it down on McCarthy if things don’t improve.
Sorry, but I’m having a hard time believing that they will.
Here’s my biggest concern. After two weeks of his team looking thoroughly unprepared, first for a divisional showdown that could have catapulted his team back into the race for the division crown, and then against a winless team featuring a rookie coach and a 21 year old quarterback making his first professional start, McCarthy had the balls big enough to say this in a public setting:
I’ll stand by what I said yesterday after the game: if there was an error that was made leading up to this game it was probably too, too much work this week…. I felt in the fourth quarter that our energy level wasn’t what it was in the first three quarters, and that’s something that I have to take a very close look at because they had a good week of work. That’s the facts. Now, what happened on Sunday was there was a lot of production. We had a lot of production yesterday. The impact plays against us is what cost us the game, and that’s the reality of the way the game went.
This notion that the youngest team in the National Football League got pooped in the 4th quarter because their faux-Pittsburgh-tough coach was too hard on them during the week is just ridiculous. As Leroy Butler points out – they weren’t even in pads! They DID, however….go outside? Is that it? Does McCarthy think that heading outdoors equals a ‘tough practice’? Don’t answer that.
No, McCarthy has to do better than that – my fear is that he won’t. Time and time again, we’ve heard him talk about ‘cleaning things up’ and ‘getting things fixed’ only to see the same mistakes again and again. And if he’s proven one thing over his tenure it’s that nothing will change. No matter how bad it gets, he’ll keep trotting out his three and four receiver formations, leaving his over matched tackles, whoever they are this week, to the mercy of the defensive ends. He’ll refuse to pound the football, even when his team is ahead, even when the running game is actually working for a change. The list goes on and on.
I also found this response from McCarthy, when asked about the coaching staff, of particular interest:
To have a new message or a new messenger, I’m confident that’s not what our football team needs right now. They have a very loud, direct, clear message in the team meetings day in and day out. So there is no question or uncertainty of what we are asking everybody to do, coaches and players, and the accountability of what needs to be done.
Translation: My coaches are not the problem.
Oh, sure, you can make the argument that he is putting it on the entire squad, coaches and players alike. But make no mistake – McCarthy has reached the point where all the heat is on him and his staff. And after making sweeping changes on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, it would look rather foolish to then have massive changes on offense and special teams halfway through the following season. That would pretty much indicate that McCarthy has no clue what the hell he is doing and that he will spare no one to save his job. McCarthy, to his credit, is not going down that road. Yet.
They are in the thick of the regular season, and unless you’re the Cleveland Browns, you don’t fire General Managers in the middle of the season. Coaches, however, have been known to be removed with months remaining in the season. Do I think that’s likely in Green Bay? No. But McCarthy knows he’s coaching for his job this Sunday and every week afterward until the team is eliminated from the playoffs. Then, he’ll get to meet with the man who decides his fate, Mr. Ted Thompson. You know, the guy responsible for giving McCarthy the players who apparently aren’t doing what McCarthy’s coaches are telling them to do.
And that, my fellow Packer fans, is a meeting I would LOVE to be a fly on the wall for. Because really, that’s the crux of the issue. McCarthy refuses to alter his gameplans and schemes to fit the obvious deficiencies of his roster. Is he trying to make a point to Thompson with this bit about not needing to change anything on the staff?
Speaking of the staff, watching the Broncos last night brought me back to the whole Mike Nolan/Greg Williams/Dom Capers saga that transpired this offseason. It must get Capers just a little pissed when he looks at how Denver and New Orleans went about transforming their rosters in the offseason to suit their new coordinators, while the Packers handed Capers the exact same squad that failed the year before – (oh, wait, Thompson DID give Capers Anthony Smith…then took him away) and said “Here’s Aaron Kampman at outside linebacker – have fun”. What a surprise then to see the exact same issues come to light – no pressure on the quarterback, tight ends burning the defense for touchdowns, etc etc etc. Maybe, JUST maybe – these players that Thompson loves so much, and who just needed a real, live professional defensive coordinator to expose their brilliance, just MAYBE they aren’t quite as good as Thompson thinks they are.
OK, yes, I’m ranting. And it feels good.
The truth of the matter is that, with a win this weekend, the season, and McCarthy’s career, is back on. Lose, and it’s all over but the crying. I’m betting it’s the latter, but I’m hoping, nay, praying, that I’m wrong.
Filed Under: Mike McCarthy • Ted Thompson
Beautiful
I never considered MM might be trying to make a point to TT by being so freaking stubborn with his schemes/gameplans. That’s really interesting. And if it’s the case, I’m even more pissed at him than I already was. (And that’s not to say I have the slightest bit of sympathy for TT.) But there’s a support group for people who hate their bosses: It’s called Everyone. Suck it up MM, make some changes, put the players you *do* have in a position to succeed, and win a big game. For once.
the next game is definitely crucial. But i still don’t think anything drastic will happen until the end of the season. This game could be the deciding factor but I don’t see a midseason change in the works.
Beat the Cowboys and a lot of the vitriol will subside. not only that but its entirely possible to make a playoff push. still a lot of football to be played and a lot of decisions to be made.
But I still cannot believe we lost to the Bucs.
6-10, here we come!
In all fairness, McCarthy is pretty much what he was advertised to be when coming in: a good coordinator whose good offensive teams, though statistically pretty, never seemed to exceed the 8-8 threshold.
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The problem, as you well know, Aaron, goes to the top of the pile, as far up as Mark Murphy. Whereas Bob Harlan and Ron Wolf had the spine to tell the executive committee to stay put at their Kiwanis functions and stay the FUCK out of football operations, the meddling little bastards have their fingerprints all over the current organizational structure.
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Cliff Christl wasn’t espousing flimsy conspiracy theories in his recent column. The exec committe IS trouble. I know, I grew up and went to high school with their kids. I know these ignoble scumbags, and I know what kind of damage they can bring to the organization if there is no Harlan or Wolf to keep a shock collar on them.
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I love Bedard, but the way he seemed to dismiss Christl’s take in a recent chat (or wherever it was) just shows that Bedard is still new to town. He doesn’t understand that these clowns who run car dealerships and real estate empires meddle with the franchise all too frequently. They are clearly doing it again; look no further than the faceless non-entity of a president the team currently has.
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I fear that years of despair and grief are upon us.
Packnic – oh, don’t get me wrong. I don’t think McCarthy will be fired during the season, no matter what happens this weekend. But lose this game, and the season is definitely over.
Against the Cowboy defense AR’s career is not on the line. His life? Now that’s a different issue. If they still don’t change their scheme a parental guidance warning should be inserted on the screen before each Packer possession. The Cowboy defense is big, fast and mean.
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Be afraid, very afraid!
I’m positing that 10 sacks by the Dallas “D” this week is entirely within reach. Always bet the “over” in the over/under on Packers’ sacks surrendered.
Do professional coaches ever ask the players what needs to change to get more productivity? Or is it always top down, heavy handed, coaches way only? If you involve the players in devising the game plan I assume it would increase player motivation.
Good post Aaron. It’s really hard to think about/talk about last weekend. I believe I’ll be back in ATL this weekend so going to TJs to watch the Cowboys game will bring some joy, but if we are 4-5 with the upcoming schedule I think the season is most definitely over.
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I’ve been thinking about Nolan and Williams myself recently. It just makes me more frustrated. So much excitement coming out of preseason, and now it’s all gone.
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You or CSS or Ron might be able to help with a question…given that McCarthy had only one season in SF as head coach, what were the reasons TT stated for hiring him? I sorry to say I just don’t remember. I’m sure TT didn’t say “because I wanted someone who wouldn’t question me.” But seriously, I’m sure he did say something. What was his rationale back then?
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I think I owe Jason Wilde an apology. Last year when he asked TT and MM “do you guys know what you are doing?” I thought that was a stupid question. Maybe not.
The best move the Packers have made in about 40 years was canning Tom Braatz in mid-November.
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I don’t really see the problem in firing TT yesterday. Let the new GM watch the team for the 2nd half of the season as preparation for the off-season and the draft. I’d be shocked if it happened, though. The current regime seems committed to complacency.
AIA – McCarthy had never been a Head Coach before getting the job in Green Bay. He was Offensive Coordinator with the 49ers under Mike Nolan. As for Thompson’s reasons at the time, all I remember him saying was that he liked how Mike was a ‘Pittsburgh-macho type’ Um, yeah…
Good post, Aaron. I just want to see a well executed, mistake free football game by this team. There are a whole host of team/individual performance issues that frustrate me but it’s so frustrating to not know what the team COULD be if special teams, offense and defense executed.
BTW – during your pitchfork and torch post I stated we wait until 10 games until judging McCarthy. Two consecutive weeks of a team sleepwalking through various quarters was quite enough for me. Execute and manage a game against the Cowboys and I will back off. Right now, I’m part of the mob.
Thanks for the post, Aaron.
I’ve been part of the mob for quite sometime now and dont think that will change. TT needs to go. Yeah he has a great eye for drafting talent but he doesnt do squat in FA. Yeah I know he brought in woodson, pickett, chillar, etc but he needs to do something besides sit on his hands till they get numb. MM or mcChucklebutt doesnt even deserve to be a OC
Nicely done, Aaron. I can’t really add anything to it, other than to simply reiterate that TT needs a kick in the sac for the “talent” of the O line, and McSuperSize needs one for his stubborn stupidity.
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Please people, enough with bashing Mark Murphy. He got stuck with TT and MM for 5 years thanks to the extensions Harlan doled out before he retired. He might eventually suck…he might not. He is totally an unknown entity at this point. Period. End of story. The people that slam Murphy are basing it solely on the Favre marketing deal. Yes, it was stupid. But the guy has never hired ANYBODY, so how can we know what kind of GM he would hire if he had that chance? He’ll have the chance one day…most likely early January, 2010 if things keep going the way they’re going. We just don’t know enough about him to form any type of opinion whatsoever.
Perhaps the loss to the Bucs was a good thing.
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Losing close games to good teams only resulted in the team/staff saying “damn, we’re so close. one or two plays are making the difference. just gotta stay on the path”.
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Maybe last weekend’s disaster was a strong enough slap in the face to force all involved to admit changes need to be made.
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I’m probably being a blind optimist, but I bet the Pack plays it’s best game this week.
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I’m predicting a two score win.
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I can already feel the responses coming. I better put on some armor.
Sorry Aaron, meant coordinator
Dallas is favored by 2.5…take Dallas.
Capers has turned the running D around, BY MUCH.
But to say it’s the players… Well, yes, they aren’t suited to only rush 3 or 4, straight to the QB.
But there’s a thing that a DC invented in the NFL, to compensate for the lack of pure pass rush, you know, THE ZONE BLITZ??? How much have you seen this team Blitz, or confuse offenses, aside from the Preseason? This defense has been more vanilla than with Cel. Sanders.
But I think Dom Capers got it wrong… It was to be vanilla in the preseason and bring it all out during regular season… NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND!
Aaron,
the season is already over!!! The first half of the season should have been the easiest… I don’t think we have any chance to win against Dallas or Pittsburgh… and after the Tampa debacles I don’t think we will win against San Francisco, Arizona and even Chicago!
So, this season has been sacrified by MM and TT for what???…. nothing very valuable because I don’t think they have built the best group we’ve ever seen. This sacrifice does not guarantee us to be in the playoffs next season…
Yeah – they just gave up 38 to the friggin’ bucs. time to start bringin’ the house. If you’re gonna go down, might as well go down while rushing 8+.
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Guys are running around free as is – what’s the difference?
MM’s first quote there is evidence that Ari Fleishers work paid off last summer. That’s perfect doublespeak black is white war is peace type crap the politicians peddle. Watching the Bronco’s Steelers game last night sure made it obvious that coaching matters. Time for Ted and MM to pack their egos and move on.
It’s a little more accurate to say the defense gave up 24 to the Bucs, seeing has how 1 TD was a blocked punt and 1 was an INT return. Since yet another INT was returned to our 7 yard line, I’m pretty comfortable pinning a whole 17 points on the defense.
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Special teams have put our D in horrible field position all year. On the list of things to freak out about, I put the defense down a notch or two behind the “talent” of the O line, and McCalorie’s coaching the O. We’re 2nd in the league in avg yds/rush against at 3.5, AFTER seeing Peterson twice. We finished up last year at 26th with 4.6. Pressuring the QB is just as bad as last year, and I think we just don’t have guys that are good at it, no matter what the scheme. I’m okay with the D for now, until they give up 250 yards rushing to Dallas next week, of course……….
Mark Murphy has a critical question to answer: “is the poor performance due to inadequate coaching and / or inadequate talent?” Aaron, I think you are right to draw attention to McCarthy defending the coaching staff. I’ve said elsewhere that I think Thompson and McCarthy aren’t on the same page and both are setting the other guy up for failure. If Murphy agrees, then both are gone.
Hmmmm! Aaron Kampman played most of the TB game with a concussion. Don’t they have a medical staff? If so, they go too. You mean to tell me no one was checking for players that didn’t seem right on the field op sidelines? The whole damn organization seems to be falling apart.
Ron, I work in the medical field and it’s very difficult to diagnose a concussion when the event or collission where it happens isn’t obvious. You only see it in the residual behavior of the player and, often times, this is quite sometime after the incident. It’s very subtle. So subtle that players frequently play an entire game and remember none of it until they view the film.
At least we know now why Kampann looked so lost in coverage on those particular plays, including the TD.
Ruppert is correct. Harlan gave us TT & MM. He didn’t want the Packers to succeed better than they did during his regime, so he hired guys who were so so to mask what they really were. When he hired TT I though “Who the hell is that?” Rediculous. Murphey doesn’t have the balls to send them packing, so we’re stuck with the undynamic duo for another year for sure. When they fail again next year, they’ll be gone.
I knew what I thought of this season when I said to my husband Sunday night “Well, if we want to go to Green Bay for a game next year, the tickets should be a lot cheaper.” Sigh.
I, like you Aaron, hope I’m wrong.
CSS, I realize the subtleties of a concussion. My comments on the Med Staff were a tad sarcastic and tongue-in-cheek. But, when you look at some closeups of Kampman after a play he had this wide-eyed, blank look on his face. I thought maybe someone on the sideline might have noticed too.
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From Gary Ellerson on WSSP: If MM doesn’t change his scheme by Sunday they’ll need to buy a bodybag for AR.
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Talk is that Colledge is going to be benched for Sunday and Lang starts at LG. Colledge? Wasn’t he one of the guys we needed to save cap money for?
I agree. I think that if nothing improves in the rest of the season, and I can’t see how it will, it will be over for McCarthy, and hopefully Thompson.
McCarthy should go back to collecting tolls
I’m usually about as optimistic as a Packer fan can get, BUT, I just don’t see us beating Dallas. While watching Dallas continually get to Mcnabb rushing just 4, I could not stop thinking about how bad things could get next week (I won’t get into details, but stretchers were involved). I HOPE I’m wrong, but I just don’t see it.
GBP 4 LIFE
“Dallas is favored by 2.5…take Dallas”
I did. For the first time I’m gonna pick against the pack on my weekly office picks, and with my wallet. If I gotta sit through piss poor football like that… I might as well be making some $$$$ on it (at least my Sunday’s won’t totally suck). I thought I’d feel guilty pulling the trigger on the bet, but you know, I like easy $$$$.
GBP 4 LIFE
The defense did not cost this game. The Bucs only had ONE long drive. They scored, because they kept getting the ball in the red zone. Well, and the two TDs, from the Rodgers pick six and the punt block.
And TT drafted Raji and Clay for this defense. I’m satisfied with the defense.
It’s the offense that is melting down, and specifically the Oline.
Well, and special teams.
nerdmann,
Don’t forget about the coaching!
GBP 4 LIFE
I think the issue of the team tiring in the 4th quarter is legit. This was a game played in 86 degrees with humidity.
The problem was the game wasn’t over by then. We HANDED this game to the Bucs. If we didn’t alow a blocked punt for a TD and hand them the ball in the red zone twice, we win.
The Bucs were primed and playing hard for their head coach. This could have happened to any team. But it happened to MM. AGAIN.
nerdmann,
Did you miss last season, the defense all last season was done in the forth quarter. I kept calling every week for someone to take away the pay checks for the defense in the forth quarter. This game is 60 minutes long, 4 quarters, it doesn’t matter how big of a lead you have, you don’t play to get out front and then just plan to stay there are “try” things out, thats what practice is for, any morron can tell you that except for the ones running the show in GB.
And on the weather, training camp can be in that same type of weather and these are professionals, lets quite making excuses.
I’m stuck in Bear country and all I hear every week is how the injuries, oh the injuries, if Urlacher was healthy, blah blah blah, if you ask me Lovie Smith and MM went to the same damn school and are just about the same ammount of delushinal.
I know this is kinda sacrilege, but i gotta say… the totality of FAIL makes this week’s game kind of stress free. Expecting nothing means that if they lose, there is no true disappointment – it’s simply par for the course and we get that much closer to hopefully cleaning house.
If they win, it is an unexpected surprise of marvelous proportions. WIN/WIN.
Unless…. they play smart, lose by a smidgen, and the difference is based on bad ref calls or something, giving the “brain trust” another week to say, “almost there guys, alllllllmooooooost there.”
Could be the Bucs weren’t the pushovers we thought they were? If you watched the preseason, you could see that Josh Johnson had potential and they worked him all during the bye.
Also you have Jim Bates running the defense, you all remember him and what he did for the Pack’s D? They added players in the bye and were rested, ready.
The Packers have had injuries that have disrupted any continuity to the OL, which is still young. AR is not practicing with his receivers as much as he may need to due to foot injuries and it may be catching up with him. If they’re dropping passes on him why would AR trust a short passing game?
There were tropical force winds out there. Finley and Nelson are out. The running game did get untracked some, but there were still third and longs. Just some things to consider in the mix.
And you want to replace the GM and coaching staff with who? Gruden, who after a super bowl win with Dungy’s players went into a slow decline and ended his run with players and fans complaining loudly about him. Cowher – he’ll have to hire an offensive coordinator. Shanahan is not coming here, wore out his welcome in Denver. Dungy is happily retired.
Holmgren wants to GM with an East Coast team and how did his stint as GM work out for Seattle?
And this club spends more money on coaching contracts while paying off others – instead of players they need. Brilliant.
Holmgren GMing – never a fan of that. But, as a head coach. Yep. However, I think he’s got it in his head somehow that he can do both. And, I will freely say that when the Pack wouldn’t let him do both, I supported that decision. Almost no one can do both well, I suspect. Cowher would be fine, but I agree. Dungy ditto.
I hear you, Glorious 80s but a lot of what you note about maybe underrating the Bucs leads back to one thing. Coaching. Or the lack thereof. We have it. We must cure it.
foundinidaho and I you. Any given Sunday.
Great comment posted (sorry I can’t remember who) on the previous topic, a quote from the Green Bay Press Gazette:
“— The Bucs’ press coverage all but took away the quick-hitters and three-step drops after Rodgers hit WR Greg Jennings for option slants of 11 and 6 on the first two drives. It also made receivers work harder to get open at times, and with the mounting protection issues up front, downfield routes sometimes didn’t clear fast enough for Rodgers to get the ball out. At other times, the Cover-2 shell created a bracket effect, such as on the second interception — a post that went through Jennings’ hands at the 4. Bucs CB Aqib Talib, matched up with Jennings much of the day, was playing under coverage with S Corey Lynch picking up the deep route about 10 yards downfield. Lynch played it better than expected, but Rodgers’ perfect throw still gave the Packers a chance. Jennings just dropped it.”
Had a feeling it isn’t as simple as people sometimes make it out to be. I do think the coaching staff prepares. MM is known as a hard worker. Murphy was quoted in a JS article that he sees the (coaching, I assume) structure as sound. Why what is done in practice doesn’t always translate to the game, I don’t know – but it may have something to do with ehst the opponents come up with.
Credit CSS for the GBPG quote.
Correction: …but it may have something to do with what the opponents come up with. Apologies for the typo.
“Maybe the Bucs were better than 0-7, they had the bye week to establish a game plan…”, If you find yourself writing or thinking this BULLSHIT, END IT! ‘Cause you’ve lost your grip on reality. There is no justifiable reason the GBP lose THAT game. Rationalization is a powerful beast, don’t let it get the better of you. NO EXCUSE for that performance, NO EXCUSE.
GBP 4 LIFE
Wingnuts, last year our defense was extremely depleted on the Dline. We lost Jenkins in the 4th game. Jolly wasn’t back from his shoulder injury. KGB was washed up. We also lost Barnett.
The Packers just had a fluke year injury-wise.
Glorious80s, you make some good points too. This Bucs team did play tough and they were rallying around their coach.
But our special teams need to play better than that.
Yeah, the lack of practice might be getting to Rodgers, and his dump off guys do tend to drop the ball. But Rodgers still needs to throw it to them. If they drop it, they drop it. At least he’s getting it out.
The bottom line is, yeah the Packers shouldn’t have lost this game. But that’s happened over and over and over again.
Even when we win games, we don’t play as well as we should.
[...] Aaron Nagler of Cheeshead TV tells Packer fans to take a deep breath. [...]
There is absolutely no way on the face of the earth that the Pack will beat Dallas on Sunday.
That breaks my heart, but I’m willing to endure it if it brings the McCarthy era to an end.
I want Cowher and I want him bad, but that’s another pipe dream.
Per Aaron
” The truth of the matter is that, with a win this weekend, the season, and McCarthy’s career, is back on. Lose, and it’s all over but the crying. I’m betting it’s the latter, but I’m hoping, nay, praying, that I’m wrong. ”
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Love it…….. This is typical CYA…. Trash…. Trash…… Trash….. but just in case……. LOL.
It is not rationalization to recognize your opponents have talent and good coaching on their side. To disrespect opponents is arrogance and walking into a trap game, which is what this was. They had two weeks to prepare for this game plus Jim Bates’ defense.
For three quarters the Packers managed to get by, but failed in the end. Yes, special teams set up some of the scoring and bad field positions. On one of the punts, according to reports, the punter was expecting a certain wind condition that did not materialize. And the defense at times, could not stop Freeman, who is their #1 draft choice. Maybe some of these errors by the Pack are caused by what the other side is doing, like Kuhn falling for a stunt on the blocked punt. Lesson hopefully learned.
TB, according to the above GBPG, covered the short and long passing game.
“…the Cover-2 shell created a bracket effect, such as on the second interception — a post that went through Jennings’ hands at the 4. Bucs CB Aqib Talib, matched up with Jennings much of the day, was playing under coverage with S Corey Lynch picking up the deep route about 10 yards downfield. Lynch played it better than expected, but Rodgers’ perfect throw still gave the Packers a chance. Jennings just dropped it.” GBPG
It’s remarkable that AR made that throw. Maybe AR holds the ball because he’s trying to complete the play when other things arn’t working. Not a bad quality. But, he’s learning and makes mistakes.
It’s not just what your team does, it’s how they perform against opposing players and what they do. This is the NFL, parity league.
The OL is hurting, young and can’t get continuity playing with each other in real time situations. Kind of a flip of last year.
They have to keep plugging on trying to solve the problems, naturally.