College Football Weekend Preview: Playoff Committee Not Tolerating Multiple Losses

The first two-loss team didn't show up until No. 18 in the debut college football playoff committee rankings.

For the portion of America suffering from SEC fatigue, tired of the conference that has dominated college football for the better part of the last decade, they smiled smugly when two-loss LSU beat previously undefeated Ole Miss this past weekend.

They started to see the SEC West begin the inevitable cannibalization of itself and thought, "Good luck finding support from the playoff committee when you all have multiple losses at season's end."

The college football playoff committee apparently isn't willing to downgrade SEC teams prematurely, however.

When the 12-member committee released its initial ranking on Tuesday, three of the top four and four of the top six spots belonged to the SEC West.

With No. 1 Mississippi State, No. 3 Auburn, No. 4 Ole Miss and No. 6 Alabama residing near the top of the list, the committee showed respect for the toughest division within the toughest conference in the country.

The SEC West, after all, is a combined 32-1 in games outside the division with the only loss happening to the West's worst team (Arkansas) at the hands of the East's best team (Georgia). It's difficult to argue against such an obviously telling statistic.

What the committee showed, perhaps above anything else, in their debut ranking release is they're going to take a hardline stance on the bottom line. In other words, they're not going to tolerate multiple losses.

The first two-loss team (Oklahoma) didn't show up in the rankings until No. 18.

It's going to be interesting to see how far one of the top four teams from the SEC West falls when the next one invariably loses (one will Saturday when Auburn travels to Ole Miss), but this committee demonstrated it's going to give the benefit of the doubt to teams that have just one blemish on their record, or less, nearly regardless of the level of competition.

If you're a conference champion from a Power Five conference and you have one or fewer losses, you're more than likely going to be "In like Flynn" when it comes to the playoff.

On the other hand, if you have two or more losses, it's going to be "Thanks for playing. Enjoy the consolation prize of a bowl game outside of the playoffs."

 

Where College GameDay Is At

ESPN's weekly pregame show will originate from the campus of resurgent West Virginia as they host TCU.

The No. 20 Mountaineers (6-2) take on the No. 7 Horned Frogs (6-1) in a game televised at 2:30 p.m. CT on the ABC/ESPN2 reverse mirror, depending on where you live.

During the show and the game, expect much of the nation to be introduced to West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White, who has emerged to become one of the best wide receivers in America. We're talking A.J. Green good.

A transfer from Lackawanna College, White was good last season—his first with the Mountaineers—catching 35 passes for 507 yards and five touchdowns. But he's taken his play to another stratosphere this season.

White hadn't been held to less than six receptions or 100 yards until just last week against Oklahoma State, as if opponents just caught on to his domination. Through eight games, he has 72 receptions for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns.

Even with a quarter of the season left to play, White has already cemented his status for postseason All-America teams, alongside Alabama's Amari Cooper. Book it.

White has been a big reason for the success of the West Virginia passing game, and fellow wide receiver Mario Alford (45 catches, 600 yards, six touchdowns) isn't a bad complement.

Quarterback Clint Tickett will be looking to expose a TCU defense that's consistently been one of the nation's best units under head coach Gary Patterson but also one that showed vulnerability, allowing Baylor to score 61 points and rack up 782 total yards of offense in the Horned Frogs' only loss this season.

If TCU doesn't want a repeat performance of the letdown at Baylor, they're going to have to corrall White, and it will take a full team defensive effort. Ironically, the burden will fall on TCU cornerback Kevin White to cover WVU wide receiver Kevin White. And the front seven will have to apply pressure on Trickett so the secondary has to cover forever.

On the other side of the football, the Mountaineers defense will have to contain newly emerging Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin, who's able to do damage with both his arm and his legs.

TCU has transformed its offense in the offseason, hiring Doug Meacham from Houston and Sonny Cumbie from Texas Tech to install the "Air Raid" system. The result has been TCU emerging as the nation's No. 1 scoring offense, averaging 50.4 points per game.

To its credit, West Virginia's defense has also improved by leaps and bounds over a season ago, but stopping the explosive TCU offense still represents a stiff challenge. The Mountaineers got some practice by facing Baylor two weeks ago and fared better than TCU, holding the Bears to 27 points and just 318 total yards, less than half of what TCU allowed.

Prediction: The TCU defense will rebound. No, it won't stop West Virginia cold, but it will hold the Mountaineers in check both on the ground and through the air. Trevone Boykin will do the rest, coming up with a season-defining drive on the road for the win. 34-31, Frogs Fight. 

 

The Wisconsin Connection

Wisconsin stood at a crossroads last week. Lose to Maryland and just gaining bowl eligibility might become a challenge the rest of the season. Win and they'd likely ride momentum into games against overmatched opponents in back-to-back weeks at Rutgers and Purdue.

Not only did the Badgers win, they beat the Terrapins in blowout fashion, 52-7, signaling they're ready to get back into the Big Ten West division race before facing Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota to close out the season.

First things first, Wisconsin (5-2) must take care of business in their first-ever meeting with Rutgers (5-3) in a game to be televised at 11:00 a.m. CT on ESPN.

It appears Wisconsin has settled upon Joel Stave being the starter and primary option at quarterback with Tanner McEvoy limited to a change-of-pace role, which has worked out well the past two weeks as they've taken advantage of McEvoy's running ability, something they were reluctant to do earlier in the season.

Beating the Scarlet Knights, however, means riding the running backs to victory like it usually does.

Despite a surprisingly solid 5-1 start to the season for Rutgers, they've lost their last two games to Ohio State and Nebraska because they couldn't stop the run. They allowed 324 yards and four touchdowns on the ground to the Buckeyes and 292 yards and four touchdowns to Ameer Abduallh alone the following week.

If Rutgers wants a chance of hanging with Wisconsin, it'll have to sell out against the run. And on offense, its passing game will have to click.

For ranking fourth in the nation in total defense, allowing just 270.1 yards per game, the Badgers sure don't force many turnovers. With just four interceptions and not a single fumble recovery, the Scarlet Knights quarterback—no matter who it will be (usual starter Gary Nova is questionable while fighting through a knee injury)—will have to bomb away without fear of getting picked off.

Rutgers wide receiver Leonte Carroo is one player capable of making the Wisconsin secondary pay with 35 catches for 775 yards and six touchdowns on the season.

Prediction: The Badgers offensive line will pave the way for another effective game from Melvin Gordon while undersized Rutgers defenders are left in the wake. 38-21, On Wisconsin.

 

What Happened Before Saturday

Following Thursday evening's 42-31 victory over No. 25 Louisville, No. 2 Florida State appears destined for the inaugural college football playoff.

The Seminoles didn't look invincible, at one point down 21 points in the first half, but the Cardinals defense wasn't as good as advertised, ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense coming into the game.

Louisville forced three Florida State turnovers, but couldn't capitalize on them.

The killer was a Gerod Holliman interception, his second of the game, on the Seminoles first drive of the second half. When Holliman fumbled and lost the football on his return, it was a back breaker and potential 14-point swing as Florida State scored when they got the football back.

Jameis Winston might have thrown three interceptions, but unlike so many quarterbacks, he made up for his mistakes, throwing for 401 yards and three touchdowns.

The four regular season games remaining on Florida State's schedule are vs. Virginia, at Miami, vs. Boston College and vs. Florida.

Could the Seminoles lose any one of those games? Sure, but it isn't likely. And it's similarly not likely that they'll be challenged in the ACC championship game either.

 

Annual College Football Road Trip

If you'll indulge me for a moment, this week is my annual college football road trip, taken during the Packers bye week along with my wife (bless her heart).

This year we stay close to home in Big Ten country, heading to Iowa City, Iowa for the Hawkeyes game against the Northwestern Wildcats.

I'm looking forward to seeing Iowa offensive tackle Brandon Scherff, likely a first round draft pick next spring and perhaps as high as the Top 10.

It's good to see Packers defensive lineman Mike Daniels will be recognized as an honorary captain as well.

I hope to have a few beers from Toppling Goliath. If you're going to the game and doing a little tailgating, hit me up on Twitter @BrianCarriveau.

 

Brian Carriveau is the author of the book "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America," and editor at Cheesehead TV and its "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

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