College Football Weekend Preview: New Year's Six Bids at Stake

Wisconsin may not be able to get into the college football playoff, but it is fighting for a spot in a New Year's Six bowl game when the Badgers face Ohio State in the Big Ten championship this weekend.

It's Championship Weekend. The "CFWP" brings you in-depth previews of the weekend's biggest games and thumbnail previews of all the rest of the conference championships...

 

The Wisconsin Connection

Following a winner-take-all victory over Minnesota in the regular-season finale, Wisconsin qualified for the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State, who already clinched the East division even before their win over rival Michigan.

The No. 13 Badgers (10-2) meet the No. 5 Buckeyes (11-1) on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in a game televised on Fox with perhaps a spot in a New Year's Six bowl at stake.

Without question, the only way Wisconsin qualfiies for one of the six bowl games with bids handed out by the college football playoff committee is if they win the Big Ten title game.

For Ohio State, the situation is a little more murky. They're still fighting for a spot in the playoff semifinals, and at minimum, they'll be in a New Yea'rs Six bowl with a win, but it's possible they'll drop out of the New Year's Six with a loss.

A lot is riding on quarterback Cardale Jones, who will be filling in for J.T. Barrett, the Buckeyes starter that was injured in the Michigan game.

As the conference's Quarterback of the Year, losing Barrett is costly to Ohio State, but Jones is an Urban Meyer recruit, not a walk on.

In order to beat Wisconsin's defense, ranked No. 2 in the nation in yards allowed per game (260.3), Jones is going to have to do more than just run the football. Jones has carried the football 26 times for 206 yards (7.9 ypc) in limited action this season.

Jones has also been efficient throwing the football, completing 10 of 17 passes for 108 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, a small sample size to be sure.

Wisconsin has been vulnerable in the secondary this season. Michael Caputo is the best player on the back end, but his relative weakness would be pass coverage.

Sojourn Shelton size's can be exposed. Peniel Jean is physical but lacks quickness. The same can be said of Darius Hilary.

Jones needs to have success finding Devin Smith, Michael Thomas and Jeff Heuermann if the Buckeyes want to move the football with any regularity.

On the other side of the football, good luck to Ohio State trying to stop Melvin Gordon and the Badgers running game.

Earlier this season, the Buckeyes allowed 228 yards and three touchdowns to Indiana's Tevin Coleman and 145 yards and three touchdowns to Minnesota's David Cobb.

Ohio State defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Michael Bennett will need to exceed expectations against the plus-sized Badgers offensive line.

Prediction: Wisconsin will go on a slow methodical drive in the fourth quarter to milk the clock and win the game, culminating in a Gordon touchdown run. 28-26, On Wisconsin.

 

Where College GameDay Is At

Baylor has one last opportunity to make a statement and impress the playoff committe when they host Kansas State on Saturday.

The No. 6 Bears (10-1) take on the No. 9 Wildcats (9-2) at 6:45 p.m. on ESPN after being site of the cable network's popular pregame show earlier in the day.

With TCU ranked No. 3 in the latest release, it's looking increasingly unlikely that Baylor will be able to leapfrog the Horned Frogs despite the head-to-head win.

The ace up Baylor's sleeve, however, is a season finale against a Top 10 team, while TCU ends its season with cellar dweller Iowa State. If the Bears can win convincingly, its argument for inclusion in the playoff will only be stronger.

Quarterback Bryce Petty suffered a concussion in Baylor's last game against Texas Tech, but both coach Art Briles and the quarterback himself expect Petty to play on Saturday.

The Bears will need Petty as they face the No. 1 unit in total defense (341.0 ypg) and scoring defense (20.3 ppg) in the Big 12.

Kansas State clinches a share of the Big 12 conference with a win, so they'll be highly motivated to stop Petty and Baylor's high-scoring offense.

The Wildcats will need to have success through the air, because Baylor has the No. 1 run defense in the conference, allowing just 108.1 ypg, and Kansas State has already been held to 40 or fewer yards rushing in three games this season.

Luckily for Kansas State, they have a quarterback with a rocket arm in Jake Waters and an NFL-caliber wide receiver in Tyler Lockett. The key to Baylor's defense will be stopping this duo from hooking up.

Prediction: Petty and fellow senior Antwan Goodley will step up in their final home game, making the difference in a close game. 31-24, Sic 'em Bears.

 

Championship Game Previews

MAC Championship, Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green in Detroit

The deets: Friday at 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPN2

Senior to watch: NIU safety Dechane Durante—He's no Jimmie Ward, but Durante has good size (6-2, 193 lbs.), has contributed to a MAC championships in seasons past and is perhaps the Huskies' best NFL prospect this season. He's a late round prospect at best, but he'll have a chance to make a pro roster.

Prediction: Northern Illinois will get revenge for last year's loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Championship thanks to continued solid play from quarterback Drew Hare, who's been effective both running and passing the ball. 30-20, Hail NIU.

 

Pac-12 Championship, Oregon vs. Arizona in San Francisco

The deets: Friday at 8:00 p.m. on Fox

Senior to watch: Oregon tackle Jake Fisher—When the Ducks lost to the Wildcats earlier this season, Fisher missed the game with a left knee injury and the Ducks allowed five sacks. The prior game against Washington State, Fisher also missed, and they allowed seven sacks. Since Fisher's return, the unit has stabilized. He's earned first-team Pac-12 honors and has been invited to the Senior Bowl.

Prediction: Rich Rodriguez seems to have Oregon's number, and he'll have a good gameplan in place, allowing the Wildcats to keep it close. But quarterback Marcus Mariota will have a Heisman moment to win the game. 42-35, Go Ducks.

 

Conference USA Championship, Louisiana Tech at Marshall

The deets: Saturday at 11:00 p.m. on ESPN2

Senior to watch: Marshall QB Rakeem Cato—Not considered a draftable prospect primarily due to his slight frame (6-1, 176 lbs.), but Cato has thrown at least 35 touchdown passes in each of the last three seasons. His body of work should allow him to be signed to an NFL contract as an undrafted free agent, but he'll have to be extremely impressive in the offseason—and add a few pounds—to stick around.

Prediction: Louisiana Tech won't have the success Western Kentucky did passing the football against Marshall. Aided by home-field advantage, Cato will throw his way to victory. 37-27, We Are Marshall.

 

SEC Championship, Alabama vs. Missouri in Atlanta

The deets: Saturday 3:00 p.m. on CBS

Senior to watch: Missouri DE Markus Golden—When Kony Ealy and Michael Sam left for the NFL, Golden—along with Shane Ray—stepped up in 2014 to help Missouri feature one of the best defensive lines in college football. If the Tigers have any chance of beating the nation's No. 1 team, Golden will need to live in Alabama's backfield.

Prediction: Blake Sims won't throw three interceptions like he did in the Iron Bowl. The Bama quarterback will find wide receiver Amari Cooper for at least one big touchdown and several more big gains. 38-27, Roll Tide.

 

ACC Championship, Florida State vs. Georgia Tech in Charlotte

The deets: Saturday 7:00 p.m. CT on ABC

Senior to watch: Florida State WR Rashad Greene—The leading receiver at Florida State for four consecutive years, Greene was a big part of the reason the Seminoles won the national championship a year ago and may do so again. The more he can get open for Jameis Winston to find him, the better chance the Seminoles will have of beating the Yellowjackets.

Prediction: Florida State might have a few problems with the triple option, but the Seminoles defense is far more talented than the Yellowjackets defense. The Georgia Tech defense will have a tougher time putting the clamps on Winston, Greene and tight end Nick O' Leary. 32-20, War Chant.

 

Mountain West Championship, Fresno State at Boise State

The deets: Saturday 9:00 p.m. CT on CBS

Senior to watch: Boise State RB Jay Ajayi—Second in the nation in scoring behind only Melvin Gordon, Ajayi scored 28 touchdowns this season—24 on the ground and four more through the air. A workhorse running back, he was only one of three running backs in the country to average more than 25 carries a game.

Prediction: The fact that Fresno State qualified for the championship game with a 6-6 record tells you all you need to know. The Bulldogs defense will be no match for Ajayi and the rest of the Broncos offense. 42-21, The Hammer.

 

Brian Carriveau is the author of the book "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America," and editor at Cheesehead TV and its "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

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Comments (1)

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egbertsouse's picture

December 08, 2014 at 03:19 pm

Urban Meyer needs to send every Badger coach and player a hand-written thank-you card for laying down like dirty dogs and letting the Buckeyes walk into the BCS playoffs. I never thought that I would be embarrassed by the Wis. football team.

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